Even the best models of emerging infections struggle to give accurate forecasts at time scales greater than 3-4 weeks due to unpredictable drivers such as a changing policy environment, behavior change, the development of new control measures, and stochastic events. However, policy decisions around the course of emerging infections often require projections in the time frame of months. The goal of long-term projections is to compare outbreak trajectories under different scenarios, as opposed to offering a specific, unconditional estimate of what “will” happen. These projections, however, can still provide useful guidance for policy and planning.
To help fill this need, MIDAS members are forming a Scenario Modeling Hub to build on and complement the Forecast Hub by providing projections under different scenarios at the time scale of 3-6 months from multiple modeling groups. We have defined three broad scenarios for groups to look at and are soliciting the first round of projections for January 4th, 2021. More details on how and where to submit will be circulated soon.
If you have not already, interested groups can register here: