Model fitting of excess mortality data across a range of plausible values of the IFR and the amount of external seeding suggests an early SARS-CoV-2 introduction event may have occurred in Somalia in November-December 2019. Transmissibility in the first epidemic wave was estimated to be lower than in European settings. Alternatively, there was another, unidentified source of sustained excess mortality in Mogadishu from March to August 2020.
Koltai M, Warsame A, Bashiir F, Freemantle T, Reeve C, Williams C, Jit M, Flasche S, Davies NG, , Aweis A, Ahmed M, Dalmar A, Checchi F. (2022). Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of satellite-based excess mortality data in 2020. Wellcome open research, (6)