Projecting the Combined Health Care Burden of Seasonal Influenza and COVID-19 in the 2020-2021 Season.


As the COVID-19 pandemic threatened lives worldwide, the Northern Hemisphere braced for a potential "twindemic" of seasonal influenza and COVID-19.Using a validated mathematical model of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 co-circulation in a large US city, we projected the impact of COVID-19-driven nonpharmaceutical interventions combined with influenza vaccination on health care capacity during the 2020-2021 respiratory virus season.We describe analyses conducted during summer 2020 to help US cities prepare for the 2020-2021 influenza season and provide a retrospective evaluation of the initial projections.

Nonspecific NPI efforts can dramatically reduce seasonal influenza burden and preserve health care capacity during respiratory virus season.

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Tanvi Ingle

Undergraduate Research Assistant
University of Texas at Austin

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