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Marco Ajelli

Associate Professor

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Dr. Ajelli research leverages mathematical/computational modeling to provide a quantitative framework for: Understanding the key determinants and population processes shaping the epidemiology of infectious diseases. Interpreting and integrating empirical evidence to address public health questions. The goal of my research is to contribute to the ongoing shift in public health from expert opinion to evidence-based decision-making.

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Papers

Calabrò GE, Boccalini S, Panatto D, Rizzo C, Di Pietro ML, Abreha FM, Ajelli M, Amicizia D, Bechini A, Giacchetta I, Lai PL, Merler S, Primieri C, Trentini F, Violi S, Bonanni P, de Waure C. (2022). The New Quadrivalent Adjuvanted Influenza Vaccine for the Italian Elderly: A Health Technology Assessment. International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(7)

Liu H, Zhang J, Cai J, Deng X, Peng C, Chen X, Yang J, Wu Q, Chen X, Chen Z, Zheng W, Viboud C, Zhang W, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2022). Investigating vaccine-induced immunity and its effect in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in China. BMC medicine, 20(1)

Jeong YD, Ejima K, Kim KS, Joohyeon W, Iwanami S, Fujita Y, Jung IH, Shibuya K, Iwami S, Bento AI, Ajelli M. (2022). Designing isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients utilizing rapid antigen tests: a simulation study using viral dynamics models. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Gozzi N, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastore Y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Perra N, Vespignani A. (2022). Anatomy of the first six months of COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy. PLoS computational biology, 18(5)

Manica M, Poletti P, Deandrea S, Mosconi G, Ancarani C, Lodola S, Guzzetta G, d'Andrea V, Marziano V, Zardini A, Trentini F, Odone A, Tirani M, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2022). Estimating SARS-CoV-2 transmission in educational settings: A retrospective cohort study. Influenza and other respiratory viruses

Jeong YD, Ejima K, Kim KS, Joohyeon W, Iwanami S, Fujita Y, Jung IH, Aihara K, Shibuya K, Iwami S, Bento AI, Ajelli M. (2022). Designing isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients with rapid antigen tests. Nature communications, 13(1)

Chen Z, Deng X, Fang L, Sun K, Wu Y, Che T, Zou J, Cai J, Liu H, Wang Y, Wang T, Tian Y, Zheng N, Yan X, Sun R, Xu X, Zhou X, Ge S, Liang Y, Yi L, Yang J, Zhang J, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2022). Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of the outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Shanghai, China: a descriptive study. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Trentini F, Manna A, Balbo N, Marziano V, Guzzetta G, O'Dell S, Kummer AG, Litvinova M, Merler S, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Melegaro A. (2022). Investigating the relationship between interventions, contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. Epidemics, (40)

Aleta A, Martín-Corral D, Bakker MA, Pastore Y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Litvinova M, Chinazzi M, Dean NE, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Pentland A, Vespignani A, Moreno Y, Moro E. (2022). Quantifying the importance and location of SARS-CoV-2 transmission events in large metropolitan areas. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(26)

Liu QH, Zhang J, Peng C, Litvinova M, Huang S, Poletti P, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Zhou T, Viboud C, Bento AI, Lv J, Vespignani A, Merler S, Yu H, Ajelli M. (2022). Model-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19. Nature communications, 13(1)

Chen Z, Deng X, Fang L, Sun K, Wu Y, Che T, Zou J, Cai J, Liu H, Wang Y, Wang T, Tian Y, Zheng N, Yan X, Sun R, Xu X, Zhou X, Ge S, Liang Y, Yi L, Yang J, Zhang J, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2022). Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of the outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Shanghai, China: A descriptive study. The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, (29)

Chen X, Yan X, Sun K, Zheng N, Sun R, Zhou J, Deng X, Zhuang T, Cai J, Zhang J, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2022). Estimation of disease burden and clinical severity of COVID-19 caused by Omicron BA.2 in Shanghai, February-June 2022. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Cai J, Deng X, Yang J, Sun K, Liu H, Chen Z, Peng C, Chen X, Wu Q, Zou J, Sun R, Zheng W, Zhao Z, Lu W, Liang Y, Zhou X, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2022). Modeling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China. Nature medicine

Manica M, De Bellis A, Guzzetta G, Mancuso P, Vicentini M, Venturelli F, Zerbini A, Bisaccia E, Litvinova M, Menegale F, Molina Grané C, Poletti P, Marziano V, Zardini A, d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Bella A, Riccardo F, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Giorgi Rossi P, Merler S, . (2022). Intrinsic generation time of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant: An observational study of household transmission. The Lancet regional health. Europe, (19)

Chen X, Yan X, Sun K, Zheng N, Sun R, Zhou J, Deng X, Zhuang T, Cai J, Zhang J, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2022). Estimation of disease burden and clinical severity of COVID-19 caused by Omicron BA.2 in Shanghai, February-June 2022. Emerging microbes & infections

Trentini F, Pariani E, Bella A, Diurno G, Crottogini L, Rizzo C, Merler S, Ajelli M. (2022). Characterizing the transmission patterns of seasonal influenza in Italy: lessons from the last decade. BMC public health, 22(1)

Cai J, Yang J, Deng X, Peng C, Chen X, Wu Q, Liu H, Zhang J, Zheng W, Zou J, Zhao Z, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2022). Assessing the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out in China. Emerging microbes & infections

Stefanelli P, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Mammone A, Sane Schepisi M, Poletti P, Molina Grané C, Manica M, Del Manso M, Andrianou X, Ajelli M, Rezza G, Brusaferro S, Merler S, . (2022). Co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Gamma variants in Italy, February and March 2021. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 27(5)

Hu S, Wang W, Wang Y, Litvinova M, Luo K, Ren L, Sun Q, Chen X, Zeng G, Li J, Liang L, Deng Z, Zheng W, Li M, Yang H, Guo J, Wang K, Chen X, Liu Z, Yan H, Shi H, Chen Z, Zhou Y, Sun K, Vespignani A, Viboud C, Gao L, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Author Correction: Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China. Nature communications, 12(1)

Jeong YD, Ejima K, Kim KS, Iwanami S, Bento AI, Fujita Y, Jung IH, Aihara K, Watashi K, Miyazaki T, Wakita T, Iwami S, Ajelli M. (2021). Revisiting the guidelines for ending isolation for COVID-19 patients. eLife, (10)

Manica M, Guzzetta G, Riccardo F, Valenti A, Poletti P, Marziano V, Trentini F, Andrianou X, Mateo-Urdiales A, Del Manso M, Fabiani M, Vescio MF, Spuri M, Petrone D, Bella A, Iavicoli S, Ajelli M, Brusaferro S, Pezzotti P, Merler S. (2021). Impact of tiered restrictions on human activities and the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy. Nature communications, 12(1)

Davis JT, Chinazzi M, Perra N, Mu K, Piontti APY, Ajelli M, Dean NE, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Rossi L, Sun K, Xiong X, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Viboud C, Vespignani A. (2021). Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave in Europe and the United States. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Mousa A, Winskill P, Watson OJ, Ratmann O, Monod M, Ajelli M, Diallo A, Dodd PJ, Grijalva CG, Kiti MC, Krishnan A, Kumar R, Kumar S, Kwok KO, Lanata CF, de Waroux OLP, Leung K, Mahikul W, Melegaro A, Morrow CD, Mossong J, Neal EF, Nokes DJ, Pan-Ngum W, Potter GE, Russell FM, Saha S, Sugimoto JD, Wei WI, Wood RR, Wu J, Zhang J, Walker P, Whittaker C. (2021). Social contact patterns and implications for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review and meta-analysis of contact surveys. eLife, (10)

Davis JT, Chinazzi M, Perra N, Mu K, Pastore Y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Dean NE, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Rossi L, Sun K, Xiong X, Longini IM Jr., Halloran ME, Viboud C, Vespignani A. (2021). Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave. Nature

Liu QH, Zhang J, Peng C, Litvinova M, Huang S, Poletti P, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Zhou T, Viboud C, Bento AI, Lv J, Vespignani A, Merler S, Yu H, Ajelli M. (2021). Model-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Liu H, Zhang J, Cai J, Deng X, Peng C, Chen X, Yang J, Wu Q, Chen Z, Zheng W, Viboud C, Zhang W, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Herd immunity induced by COVID-19 vaccination programs to suppress epidemics caused by SARS-CoV-2 wild type and variants in China. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Yang J, Marziano V, Deng X, Guzzetta G, Zhang J, Trentini F, Cai J, Poletti P, Zheng W, Wang W, Wu Q, Zhao Z, Dong K, Zhong G, Viboud C, Merler S, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021. Nature human behaviour

Cereda D, Manica M, Tirani M, Rovida F, Demicheli V, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Piccarreta R, Barone A, Magoni M, Deandrea S, Diurno G, Lombardo M, Faccini M, Pan A, Bruno R, Pariani E, Grasselli G, Piatti A, Gramegna M, Baldanti F, Melegaro A, Merler S. (2021). The early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy. Epidemics, (37)

Zardini A, Galli M, Tirani M, Cereda D, Manica M, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Piccarreta R, Melegaro A, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Merler S. (2021). A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate COVID-19 burden. Epidemics, (37)

Manica M, Pancheri S, Poletti P, Giovanazzi G, Guzzetta G, Trentini F, Marziano V, Ajelli M, Zuccali MG, Benetollo PP, Merler S, Ferro A. (2021). The risk of symptomatic infection during a second COVID-19 wave, in SARS-CoV-2 seropositive individuals. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

Trentini F, Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Tirani M, Cereda D, Poletti P, Piccarreta R, Barone A, Preziosi G, Arduini F, Valle PGD, Zanella A, Grosso F, Castillo G, Castrofino A, Grasselli G, Melegaro A, Piatti A, Andreassi A, Gramegna M, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2021). The pressure on healthcare system and intensive care utilization during the COVID-19 outbreak in the Lombardy region: a retrospective observational study on 43,538 hospitalized patients. American journal of epidemiology

Mousa A, Winskill P, Watson OJ, Ratmann O, Monod M, Ajelli M, Diallo A, Dodd PJ, Grijalva CG, Kiti MC, Krishnan A, Kumar R, Kumar S, Kwok KO, Lanata CF, Le Polain de Waroux O, Leung K, Mahikul W, Melegaro A, Morrow CD, Mossong J, Neal EF, Nokes DJ, Pan-Ngum W, Potter GE, Russell FM, Saha S, Sugimoto JD, Wei WI, Wood RR, Wu JT, Zhang J, Walker PG, Whittaker C. (2021). Social Contact Patterns and Implications for Infectious Disease Transmission: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Contact Surveys. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Mammone A, Riccardo F, Poletti P, Trentini F, Manica M, Siddu A, Bella A, Stefanelli P, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Merler S. (2021). The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus. Nature communications, 12(1)

Mistry D, Litvinova M, Pastore Y Piontti A, Chinazzi M, Fumanelli L, Gomes MFC, Haque SA, Liu QH, Mu K, Xiong X, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Merler S, Ajelli M, Vespignani A. (2021). Inferring high-resolution human mixing patterns for disease modeling. Nature communications, 12(1)

Yang J, Zheng W, Shi H, Yan X, Dong K, You Q, Zhong G, Gong H, Chen Z, Jit M, Viboud C, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Who should be prioritized for COVID-19 vaccination in China? A descriptive study. BMC medicine, 19(1)

Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Rondinone BM, Boccuni F, Riccardo F, Bella A, Poletti P, Trentini F, Pezzotti P, Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Iavicoli S, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2021). Retrospective analysis of the Italian exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(4)

Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Galli M, Zardini A, Manenti F, Putoto G, Marziano V, Gamshie WN, Tsegaye A, Greblo A, Melegaro A, Ajelli M, Merler S, Poletti P. (2021). Modeling the interplay between demography, social contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the South West Shewa Zone of Oromia Region, Ethiopia. BMC medicine, 19(1)

Hu S, Wang W, Wang Y, Litvinova M, Luo K, Ren L, Sun Q, Chen X, Zeng G, Li J, Liang L, Deng Z, Zheng W, Li M, Yang H, Guo J, Wang K, Chen X, Liu Z, Yan H, Shi H, Chen Z, Zhou Y, Sun K, Vespignani A, Viboud C, Gao L, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China. Nature communications, 12(1)

Yu H, Yang J, Marziano V, Deng X, Guzzetta G, Zhang J, Trentini F, Cai J, Poletti P, Zheng W, Wang W, Wu Q, Zhao Z, Dong K, Zhong G, Viboud C, Merler S, Ajelli M. (2021). Can a COVID-19 vaccination program guarantee the return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle?. Research square

Chen X, Chen Z, Azman AS, Deng X, Sun R, Zhao Z, Zheng N, Chen X, Lu W, Zhuang T, Yang J, Viboud C, Ajelli M, Leung DT, Yu H. (2021). Serological evidence of human infection with SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis. The Lancet. Global health

Hu S, Wang W, Wang Y, Litvinova M, Luo K, Ren L, Sun Q, Chen X, Zeng G, Li J, Liang L, Deng Z, Zheng W, Li M, Yang H, Guo J, Wang K, Chen X, Liu Z, Yan H, Shi H, Chen Z, Zhou Y, Sun K, Vespignani A, Viboud C, Gao L, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Author Correction: Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China. Nature communications, 12(1)

Yang J, Marziano V, Deng X, Guzzetta G, Zhang J, Trentini F, Cai J, Poletti P, Zheng W, Wang W, Wu Q, Zhao Z, Dong K, Zhong G, Viboud C, Merler S, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Can a COVID-19 vaccination program guarantee the return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle?. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Han S, Cai J, Yang J, Zhang J, Wu Q, Zheng W, Shi H, Ajelli M, Zhou XH, Yu H. (2021). Time-varying optimization of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the context of limited vaccination capacity. Nature communications, 12(1)

Zhang J, Litvinova M, Liang Y, Zheng W, Shi H, Vespignani A, Viboud C, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). The impact of relaxing interventions on human contact patterns and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China. Science advances, 7(19)

Poletti P, Tirani M, Cereda D, Guzzetta G, Trentini F, Marziano V, Toso C, Piatti A, Piccarreta R, Melegaro A, Andreassi A, Gramegna M, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2021). Seroprevalence of and Risk Factors Associated With SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Health Care Workers During the Early COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy. JAMA network open, 4(7)

Poletti P, Tirani M, Cereda D, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Sabatino G, Marziano V, Castrofino A, Grosso F, Del Castillo G, Piccarreta R, Andreassi A, Melegaro A, Gramegna M, Ajelli M, Merler S, . (2021). Association of Age With Likelihood of Developing Symptoms and Critical Disease Among Close Contacts Exposed to Patients With Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Italy. JAMA network open, 4(3)

Zhang J, Litvinova M, Liang Y, Wang Y, Wang W, Zhao S, Wu Q, Merler S, Viboud C, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2020). Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Science (New York, N.Y.)

Yang J, Chen X, Deng X, Chen Z, Gong H, Yan H, Wu Q, Shi H, Lai S, Ajelli M, Viboud C, Yu PH. (2020). Disease burden and clinical severity of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. Nature communications, 11(1)

Sun K, Wang W, Gao L, Wang Y, Luo K, Ren L, Zhan Z, Chen X, Zhao S, Huang Y, Sun Q, Liu Z, Litvinova M, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Viboud C, Yu H. (2020). Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2. Science (New York, N.Y.)

Zhang J, Litvinova M, Wang W, Wang Y, Deng X, Chen X, Li M, Zheng W, Yi L, Chen X, Wu Q, Liang Y, Wang X, Yang J, Sun K, Longini IM Jr., Halloran ME, Wu P, Cowling BJ, Merler S, Viboud C, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2020). Evolving epidemiology of novel coronavirus diseases 2019 and possible interruption of local transmission outside Hubei Province in China: a descriptive and modeling study. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Guzzetta G, Riccardo F, Marziano V, Poletti P, Trentini F, Bella A, Andrianou X, Del Manso M, Fabiani M, Bellino S, Boros S, Urdiales AM, Vescio MF, Piccioli A, , Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2020). Impact of a Nationwide Lockdown on SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility, Italy. Emerging infectious diseases, 27(1)

Zhang J, Litvinova M, Liang Y, Wang Y, Wang W, Zhao S, Wu Q, Merler S, Viboud C, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2020). Age profile of susceptibility, mixing, and social distancing shape the dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Aleta A, Martin-Corral D, Pastore Y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Litvinova M, Chinazzi M, Dean NE, Halloran ME, Longini IM, Merler S, Pentland A, Vespignani A, Moro E, Moreno Y. (2020). Modeling the impact of social distancing, testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second-wave scenarios of the COVID-19 epidemic. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Wang W, Wu Q, Yang J, Dong K, Chen X, Bai X, Chen X, Chen Z, Viboud C, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2020). Global, regional, and national estimates of target population sizes for covid-19 vaccination: descriptive study. BMJ (Clinical research ed.), (371)

Deng X, Yang J, Wang W, Wang X, Zhou J, Chen Z, Li J, Chen Y, Yan H, Zhang J, Zhang Y, Wang Y, Qiu Q, Gong H, Wei X, Wang L, Sun K, Wu P, Ajelli M, Cowling BJ, Viboud C, Yu H. (2020). Case fatality risk of the first pandemic wave of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

Sun K, Wang W, Gao L, Wang Y, Luo K, Ren L, Zhan Z, Chen X, Zhao S, Huang Y, Sun Q, Liu Z, Litvinova M, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Viboud C, Yu H. (2020). Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Chen X, Chen Z, Azman AS, Deng X, Chen X, Lu W, Zhao Z, Yang J, Viboud C, Ajelli M, Leung DT, Yu H. (2020). Serological evidence of human infection with SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Pastore Y Piontti A, Rossi L, Sun K, Viboud C, Xiong X, Yu H, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Vespignani A. (2020). The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Yang J, Gong H, Chen X, Chen Z, Deng X, Qian M, Hou Z, Ajelli M, Viboud C, Yu H. (2020). Health-seeking behaviors of patients with acute respiratory infections during the outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Wuhan, China. Influenza and other respiratory viruses

Brett T, Ajelli M, Liu QH, Krauland MG, Grefenstette JJ, van Panhuis WG, Vespignani A, Drake JM, Rohani P. (2020). Detecting critical slowing down in high-dimensional epidemiological systems. PLoS computational biology, 16(3)

Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Pastore Y Piontti A, Mu K, Rossi L, Sun K, Viboud C, Xiong X, Yu H, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Vespignani A. (2020). The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science (New York, N.Y.), 368(6489)

Hu S, Wang W, Wang Y, Litvinova M, Luo K, Ren L, Sun Q, Chen X, Zeng G, Li J, Liang L, Deng Z, Zheng W, Li M, Yang H, Guo J, Wang K, Chen X, Liu Z, Yan H, Shi H, Chen Z, Zhou Y, Sun K, Vespignani A, Viboud C, Gao L, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2020). Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Davis JT, Chinazzi M, Perra N, Mu K, Piontti APY, Ajelli M, Dean NE, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Rossi L, Sun K, Xiong X, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Viboud C, Vespignani A. (2020). Estimating the establishment of local transmission and the cryptic phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Deng X, Yang J, Wang W, Wang X, Zhou J, Chen Z, Li J, Chen Y, Yan H, Zhang J, Zhang Y, Wang Y, Qiu Q, Gong H, Wei X, Wang L, Sun K, Wu P, Ajelli M, Cowling BJ, Viboud C, Yu H. (2020). Case fatality risk of novel coronavirus diseases 2019 in China. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Aleta A, Martín-Corral D, Pastore Y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Litvinova M, Chinazzi M, Dean NE, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Merler S, Pentland A, Vespignani A, Moro E, Moreno Y. (2020). Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19. Nature human behaviour

Zhang J, Litvinova M, Wang W, Wang Y, Deng X, Chen X, Li M, Zheng W, Yi L, Chen X, Wu Q, Liang Y, Wang X, Yang J, Sun K, Longini IM Jr., Halloran ME, Wu P, Cowling BJ, Merler S, Viboud C, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2020). Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study. The Lancet. Infectious diseases

Liu QH, Bento AI, Yang K, Zhang H, Yang X, Merler S, Vespignani A, Lv J, Yu H, Zhang W, Zhou T, Ajelli M. (2020). The COVID-19 outbreak in Sichuan, China: Epidemiology and impact of interventions. PLoS computational biology, 16(12)

Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Ajelli M, Trentini F, Marziano V, Cereda D, Tirani M, Diurno G, Bodina A, Barone A, Crottogini L, Gramegna M, Melegaro A, Merler S. (2020). Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 25(12)

Riccardo F, Ajelli M, Andrianou XD, Bella A, Del Manso M, Fabiani M, Bellino S, Boros S, Urdiales AM, Marziano V, Rota MC, Filia A, D'Ancona F, Siddu A, Punzo O, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Stefanelli P, Castrucci MR, Ciervo A, Di Benedetto C, Tallon M, Piccioli A, Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Merler S, Pezzotti P, . (2020). Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases and estimates of the reproductive numbers 1 month into the epidemic, Italy, 28 January to 31 March 2020. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 25(49)

Yang J, Chen X, Deng X, Chen Z, Gong H, Yan H, Wu Q, Shi H, Lai S, Ajelli M, Viboud C, Yu H. (2020). Disease burden and clinical severity of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Poletti P, Tirani M, Cereda D, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Buoro S, Riboli S, Crottogini L, Piccarreta R, Piatti A, Grasselli G, Melegaro A, Gramegna M, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2020). Age-specific SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality ratio and associated risk factors, Italy, February to April 2020. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 25(31)

Litvinova M, Liu QH, Kulikov ES, Ajelli M. (2019). Reactive school closure weakens the network of social interactions and reduces the spread of influenza. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(27)

Marziano V, Poletti P, Trentini F, Melegaro A, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2019). Parental vaccination to reduce measles immunity gaps in Italy. eLife, (8)

Liu QH, Ajelli M, Aleta A, Merler S, Moreno Y, Vespignani A. (2018). Measurability of the epidemic reproduction number in data-driven contact networks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(50)

Viboud C, Sun K, Gaffey R, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Merler S, Zhang Q, Chowell G, Simonsen L, Vespignani A, . (2018). The RAPIDD ebola forecasting challenge: Synthesis and lessons learnt. Epidemics, (22)

Ajelli M, Zhang Q, Sun K, Merler S, Fumanelli L, Chowell G, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Vespignani A. (2018). The RAPIDD Ebola forecasting challenge: Model description and synthetic data generation. Epidemics, (22)

Ajelli M, Merler S, Fumanelli L, Pastore Y Piontti A, Dean NE, Longini IM Jr., Halloran ME, Vespignani A. (2016). Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis. BMC medicine, 14(1)

Fumanelli L, Ajelli M, Merler S, Ferguson NM, Cauchemez S. (2016). Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics. PLoS computational biology, 12(1)

Merler S, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Parlamento S, Pastore Y Piontti A, Dean NE, Putoto G, Carraro D, Longini IM Jr., Halloran ME, Vespignani A. (2016). Containing Ebola at the Source with Ring Vaccination. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 10(11)

Marziano V, Poletti P, Guzzetta G, Ajelli M, Manfredi P, Merler S. (2015). The impact of demographic changes on the epidemiology of herpes zoster: Spain as a case study. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 282(1804)

Merler S, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Gomes MF, Piontti AP, Rossi L, Chao DL, Longini IM Jr., Halloran ME, Vespignani A. (2015). Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 15(2)

Guzzetta G, Ajelli M, Yang Z, Mukasa LN, Patil N, Bates JH, Kirschner DE, Merler S. (2015). Effectiveness of contact investigations for tuberculosis control in Arkansas. Journal of theoretical biology, (380)

Ajelli M, Poletti P, Melegaro A, Merler S. (2014). The role of different social contexts in shaping influenza transmission during the 2009 pandemic. Scientific reports, (4)

Merler S, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Vespignani A. (2013). Containing the accidental laboratory escape of potential pandemic influenza viruses. BMC medicine, (11)

Poletti P, Melegaro A, Ajelli M, Del Fava E, Guzzetta G, Faustini L, Scalia Tomba G, Lopalco P, Rizzo C, Merler S, Manfredi P. (2013). Perspectives on the impact of varicella immunization on herpes zoster. A model-based evaluation from three European countries. PloS one, 8(4)

Guzzetta G, Ajelli M, Yang Z, Merler S, Furlanello C, Kirschner D. (2011). Modeling socio-demography to capture tuberculosis transmission dynamics in a low burden setting. Journal of theoretical biology, (289)

Merler S, Ajelli M, Pugliese A, Ferguson NM. (2011). Determinants of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Europe: implications for real-time modelling. PLoS computational biology, 7(9)

Ajelli M, Gonçalves B, Balcan D, Colizza V, Hu H, Ramasco JJ, Merler S, Vespignani A. (2010). Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models. BMC infectious diseases, (10)

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