Matthew Ferrari

Associate Professor





Li X, Mukandavire C, Cucunubá ZM, Echeverria Londono S, Abbas K, Clapham HE, Jit M, Johnson HL, Papadopoulos T, Vynnycky E, Brisson M, Carter ED, Clark A, de Villiers MJ, Eilertson K, Ferrari MJ, Gamkrelidze I, Gaythorpe KAM, Grassly NC, Hallett TB, Hinsley W, Jackson ML, Jean K, Karachaliou A, Klepac P, Lessler J, Li X, Moore SM, Nayagam S, Nguyen DM, Razavi H, Razavi-Shearer D, Resch S, Sanderson C, Sweet S, Sy S, Tam Y, Tanvir H, Tran QM, Trotter CL, Truelove S, van Zandvoort K, Verguet S, Walker N, Winter A, Woodruff K, Ferguson NM, Garske T, . (2021). Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study. Lancet, 397(10272)

Tao Y, Probert WJM, Shea K, Runge MC, Lafferty K, Tildesley M, Ferrari M. (2021). Causes of delayed outbreak responses and their impacts on epidemic spread. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 18(176)

Gontu A, Srinivasan S, Salazar E, Nair MS, Nissly RH, Greenawalt D, Bird IM, Herzog CM, Ferrari MJ, Poojary I, Katani R, Lindner SE, Minns AM, Rossi R, Christensen PA, Castillo B, Chen J, Eagar TN, Yi X, Zhao P, Leveque C, Olsen RJ, Bernard DW, Gollihar J, Kuchipudi SV, Musser JM, Kapur V. (2021). Limited window for donation of convalescent plasma with high live-virus neutralizing antibody titers for COVID-19 immunotherapy. Communications biology, 4(1)

Gaythorpe KAM, Abbas K, Huber J, Karachaliou A, Thakkar N, Woodruff K, Li X, Echeverria-Londono S, , Ferrari M, Jackson M, McCarthy K, Perkins AT, Trotter C, Jit M. (2021). Impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 countries. eLife, (10)

Arnold CRK, Srinivasan S, Herzog CM, Gontu A, Bharti N, Small M, Rogers CJ, Schade MM, Kuchipudi SV, Kapur V, Read A, Ferrari MJ. (2021). SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in a University Community: A Longitudinal Study of the Impact of Student Return to Campus on Infection Risk Among Community Members. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Nichols JD, Bogich TL, Howerton E, Bjørnstad ON, Borchering RK, Ferrari M, Haran M, Jewell C, Pepin KM, Probert WJM, Pulliam JRC, Runge MC, Tildesley M, Viboud C, Shea K. (2021). Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making. PLoS biology, 19(6)

Toor J, Echeverria-Londono S, Li X, Abbas K, Carter ED, Clapham HE, Clark A, de Villiers MJ, Eilertson K, Ferrari M, Gamkrelidze I, Hallett TB, Hinsley WR, Hogan D, Huber JH, Jackson ML, Jean K, Jit M, Karachaliou A, Klepac P, Kraay A, Lessler J, Li X, Lopman BA, Mengistu T, Metcalf CJE, Moore SM, Nayagam S, Papadopoulos T, Perkins TA, Portnoy A, Razavi H, Razavi-Shearer D, Resch S, Sanderson C, Sweet S, Tam Y, Tanvir H, Tran Minh Q, Trotter CL, Truelove SA, Vynnycky E, Walker N, Winter A, Woodruff K, Ferguson NM, Gaythorpe KA. (2021). Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world. eLife, (10)

Bryant JE, Azman AS, Ferrari MJ, Arnold BF, Boni MF, Boum Y, Hayford K, Luquero FJ, Mina MJ, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Wu JT, Wade D, Vernet G, Leung DT. (2020). Serology for SARS-CoV-2: Apprehensions, opportunities, and the path forward. Science immunology, 5(47)

Atkins BD, Jewell CP, Runge MC, Ferrari MJ, Shea K, Probert WJM, Tildesley MJ. (2020). Anticipating future learning affects current control decisions: A comparison between passive and active adaptive management in an epidemiological setting. Journal of theoretical biology

Shea K, Runge MC, Pannell D, Probert WJM, Li SL, Tildesley M, Ferrari M. (2020). Harnessing multiple models for outbreak management. Science (New York, N.Y.), 368(6491)

Shea K, Borchering RK, Probert WJM, Howerton E, Bogich TL, Li S, Van Panhuis WG, Viboud C, Aguas R, Belov A, Bhargava SH, Cavany S, Chang JC, Chen C, Chen J, Chen S, Chen Y, Childs LM, Chow CC, Crooker I, Del Valle SY, España G, Fairchild G, Gerkin RC, Germann TC, Gu Q, Guan X, Guo L, Hart GR, Hladish TJ, Hupert N, Janies D, Kerr CC, Klein DJ, Klein E, Lin G, Manore C, Meyers LA, Mittler J, Mu K, Núñez RC, Oidtman R, Pasco R, Piontti APY, Paul R, Pearson CAB, Perdomo DR, Perkins TA, Pierce K, Pillai AN, Rael RC, Rosenfeld K, Ross CW, Spencer JA, Stoltzfus AB, Toh KB, Vattikuti S, Vespignani A, Wang L, White L, Xu P, Yang Y, Yogurtcu ON, Zhang W, Zhao Y, Zou D, Ferrari M, Pannell D, Tildesley M, Seifarth J, Johnson E, Biggerstaff M, Johansson M, Slayton RB, Levander J, Stazer J, Salerno J, Runge MC. (2020). COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Utazi CE, Wagai J, Pannell O, Cutts FT, Rhoda DA, Ferrari MJ, Dieng B, Oteri J, Danovaro-Holliday MC, Adeniran A, Tatem AJ. (2020). Geospatial variation in measles vaccine coverage through routine and campaign strategies in Nigeria: Analysis of recent household surveys. Vaccine, 38(14)

Drake JM, Brett TS, Chen S, Epureanu BI, Ferrari MJ, Marty É, Miller PB, O'Dea EB, O'Regan SM, Park AW, Rohani P. (2019). The statistics of epidemic transitions. PLoS computational biology, 15(5)

Cattadori IM, Pathak AK, Ferrari MJ. (2019). External disturbances impact helminth-host interactions by affecting dynamics of infection, parasite traits, and host immune responses. Ecology and evolution, 9(23)

Probert WJM, Lakkur S, Fonnesbeck CJ, Shea K, Runge MC, Tildesley MJ, Ferrari MJ. (2019). Context matters: using reinforcement learning to develop human-readable, state-dependent outbreak response policies. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 374(1776),

Li SL, Ferrari MJ, Bjørnstad ON, Runge MC, Fonnesbeck CJ, Tildesley MJ, Pannell D, Shea K. (2019). Concurrent assessment of epidemiological and operational uncertainties for optimal outbreak control: Ebola as a case study. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 286(1905)

Eilertson KE, Fricks J, Ferrari MJ. (2019). Estimation and prediction for a mechanistic model of measles transmission using particle filtering and maximum likelihood estimation. Statistics in Medicine, 38(21)

Graham M, Winter AK, Ferrari M, Grenfell B, Moss WJ, Azman AS, Metcalf CJE, Lessler J. (2019). Measles and the canonical path to elimination. Science (New York, N.Y.), 364(6440)

Utazi CE, Thorley J, Alegana VA, Ferrari MJ, Takahashi S, Metcalf CJE, Lessler J, Cutts FT, Tatem AJ. (2019). Mapping vaccination coverage to explore the effects of delivery mechanisms and inform vaccination strategies. Nature communications, 10(1)

Probert WJM, Jewell CP, Werkman M, Fonnesbeck CJ, Goto Y, Runge MC, Sekiguchi S, Shea K, Keeling MJ, Ferrari MJ, Tildesley MJ. (2018). Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks. PLoS computational biology, 14(7)

Tao Y, Shea K, Ferrari M. (2018). Logistical constraints lead to an intermediate optimum in outbreak response vaccination. PLoS Computational Biology, 14(5),

Fonnesbeck CJ, Shea K, Carran S, Cassio de Moraes J, Gregory C, Goodson JL, Ferrari MJ. (2018). Measles outbreak response decision-making under uncertainty: a retrospective analysis. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 15(140),

Truelove SA, Graham M, Moss WJ, Metcalf CJE, Ferrari MJ, Lessler J. (2019). Characterizing the impact of spatial clustering of susceptibility for measles elimination. Vaccine, 37(5)

Winter AK, Martinez ME, Cutts FT, Moss WJ, Ferrari MJ, McKee A, Lessler J, Hayford K, Wallinga J, Metcalf CJE. (2018). Benefits and Challenges in Using Seroprevalence Data to Inform Models for Measles and Rubella Elimination. The Journal of infectious diseases, 218(3)

A. McKee, M. J. Ferrari, and K. Shea. (2018). Correlation between measles vaccine doses: implications for the maintenance of elimination. Epidemiology and Infection, 146(4)

Kundrick A, Huang Z, Carran S, Kagoli M, Grais RF, Hurtado N, Ferrari M. (2018). Sub-national variation in measles vaccine coverage and outbreak risk: a case study from a 2010 outbreak in Malawi. BMC Public Health, 18(1)

Graham M, Suk JE, Takahashi S, Metcalf CJ, Jimenez AP, Prikazsky V, Ferrari MJ, Lessler J. (2018). Challenges and Opportunities in Disease Forecasting in Outbreak Settings: A Case Study of Measles in Lola Prefecture, Guinea. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 98(5)

Baker CM, Ferrari MJ, Shea K. (2018). Beyond dose: Pulsed antibiotic treatment schedules can maintain individual benefit while reducing resistance. Scientific reports, 8(1)

Prada JM, Metcalf CJE, Ferrari MJ. (2018). Improving measles incidence inference using age-structured serological data. Epidemiology and infection, 146(13)

Bradbury NV, Probert WJ, Shea K, Runge MC, Fonnesbeck CJ, Keeling MJ, Ferrari MJ, Tildesley MJ. (2017). Quantifying the Value of Perfect Information in Emergency Vaccination Campaigns. PLoS computational biology, 13(2)

Li S, Ma C, Hao L, Su Q, An Z, Ma F, Xie S, Xu A, Zhang Y, Ding Z, Li H, Cairns L, Wang H, Luo H, Wang N, Li L, Ferrari MJ. (2017). Demographic transition and the dynamics of measles in six provinces in China: A modeling study. PLOS Medicine, 14(4),

Gunning CE, Ferrari MJ, Erhardt EB, Wearing HJ. (2017). Evidence of cryptic incidence in childhood diseases. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 284(1861)

Takahashi S, Metcalf CJE, Ferrari MJ, Tatem AJ, Lessler J. (2017). The geography of measles vaccination in the African Great Lakes region. Nature communications, (8)

Park J, Goldstein J, Haran M, Ferrari M. (2017). An ensemble approach to predicting the impact of vaccination on rotavirus disease in Niger. Vaccine, 35(43)

Prada JM, Metcalf CJE, Takahashi S, Lessler J, Tatem AJ, Ferrari M. (2017). Demographics, epidemiology and the impact of vaccination campaigns in a measles-free world - Can elimination be maintained?. Vaccine, 35(11)

Li SL, Bjørnstad ON, Ferrari MJ, Mummah R, Runge MC, Fonnesbeck CJ, Tildesley MJ, Probert WJM, Shea K. (2017). Essential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114(22)

Probert WJ, Shea K, Fonnesbeck CJ, Runge MC, Carpenter TE, Dürr S, Garner MG, Harvey N, Stevenson MA, Webb CT, Werkman M, Tildesley MJ, Ferrari MJ. (2016). Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter. Epidemics, (15)

Bhattacharyya S, Ferrari MJ. (2016). Age-specific mixing generates transient outbreak risk following critical-level vaccination. Epidemiology and infection, 145(1)

McKEE A, Shea K, Ferrari MJ. (2016). Optimal vaccine schedules to maintain measles elimination with a two-dose routine policy. Epidemiology and infection, 145(2)

Bharti N, Djibo A, Tatem AJ, Grenfell BT, Ferrari MJ. (2016). Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage. Scientific reports, 5(6)

Takahashi S, Metcalf CJ, Ferrari MJ, Moss WJ, Truelove SA, Tatem AJ, Grenfell BT, Lessler J. (2015). Reduced vaccination and the risk of measles and other childhood infections post-Ebola. Science (New York, N.Y.), 347(6227)

Drake JM, Kaul RB, Alexander LW, O'Regan SM, Kramer AM, Pulliam JT, Ferrari MJ, Park AW. (2014). Ebola cases and health system demand in Liberia. PLoS biology, 13(1)

Shea K, Tildesley MJ, Runge MC, Fonnesbeck CJ, Ferrari MJ. (2014). Adaptive Management and the Value of Information: Learning Via Intervention in Epidemiology. PLOS Biology, 12(10)

Halloran ME, Vespignani A, Bharti N, Feldstein LR, Alexander KA, Ferrari M, Shaman J, Drake JM, Porco T, Eisenberg JN, Del Valle SY, Lofgren E, Scarpino SV, Eisenberg MC, Gao D, Hyman JM, Eubank S, Longini IM Jr.. (2014). Ebola: mobility data. Science (New York, N.Y.), 346(6208)

Lofgren ET, Halloran ME, Rivers CM, Drake JM, Porco TC, Lewis B, Yang W, Vespignani A, Shaman J, Eisenberg JN, Eisenberg MC, Marathe M, Scarpino SV, Alexander KA, Meza R, Ferrari MJ, Hyman JM, Meyers LA, Eubank S. (2014). Opinion: Mathematical models: a key tool for outbreak response. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(51)

Ferrari MJ, Fermon F, Nackers F, Llosa A, Magone C, Grais RF. (2014). Time is (still) of the essence: quantifying the impact of emergency meningitis vaccination response in Katsina State, Nigeria. International health, 6(4)

Ferrari MJ, Grenfell BT, Strebel PM. (2013). Think globally, act locally: the role of local demographics and vaccination coverage in the dynamic response of measles infection to control. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 368(1623)

Minetti A, Hurtado N, Grais RF, Ferrari M. (2014). Reaching hard-to-reach individuals: Nonselective versus targeted outbreak response vaccination for measles. American journal of epidemiology, 179(2)

Ferrari MJ, Perkins SE, Pomeroy LW, Bjørnstad ON. (2013). Pathogens, social networks, and the paradox of transmission scaling. Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases, (2011)

Ferrari MJ, Djibo A, Grais RF, Bharti N, Grenfell BT, Bjornstad ON. (2010). Rural-urban gradient in seasonal forcing of measles transmission in Niger. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 277(1695)

Yang S, Ferrari MJ, Shea K. (2010). Pollinator Behavior Mediates Negative Interactions between Two Congeneric Invasive Plant Species. The American naturalist, 177(1)

Ferrari MJ, Grais RF, Bharti N, Conlan AJ, Bjørnstad ON, Wolfson LJ, Guerin PJ, Djibo A, Grenfell BT. (2008). The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature, 451(7179)

Ferrari MJ, Bjørnstad ON, Partain JL, Antonovics J. (2006). A gravity model for the spread of a pollinator-borne plant pathogen. The American Naturalist, 168(3)

Ferrari MJ, Stephenson AG, Mescher MC, De Moraes CM. (2006). Inbreeding effects on blossom volatiles in Cucurbita pepo subsp. texana (Cucurbitaceae). American Journal of Botany, 93(12)

Ferrari MJ, Bansal S, Meyers LA, Bjørnstad ON. (2006). Network frailty and the geometry of herd immunity. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 273(1602)

Ferrari MJ, Bjørnstad ON, Dobson AP. (2005). Estimation and inference of R0 of an infectious pathogen by a removal method. Mathematical Biosciences, 198(1)

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