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Nicholas Reich

Associate Professor

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Affiliations

Bio

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Personal Academic Website

Research/Topics of Interest

Pathogens/Diseases of Main Interest/Expertise

COVID-19
Ebola

Countries of Work/Collaboration

Projects

Papers

Nixon K, Jindal S, Parker F, Marshall M, Reich NG, Ghobadi K, Lee EC, Truelove S, Gardner L. (2022). Real-time COVID-19 forecasting: challenges and opportunities of model performance and translation. The Lancet. Digital health, 4(10)

Reich NG, Ray EL. (2022). Collaborative modeling key to improving outbreak response. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(14)

Nixon K, Jindal S, Parker F, Reich NG, Ghobadi K, Lee EC, Truelove S, Gardner L. (2022). An evaluation of prospective COVID-19 modelling studies in the USA: from data to science translation. The Lancet. Digital health, 4(10)

McAndrew T, Reich NG. (2022). An expert judgment model to predict early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. PLoS computational biology, 18(9)

Reich NG, Lessler J, Funk S, Viboud C, Vespignani A, Tibshirani RJ, Shea K, Schienle M, Runge MC, Rosenfeld R, Ray EL, Niehus R, Johnson HC, Johansson MA, Hochheiser H, Gardner L, Bracher J, Borchering RK, Biggerstaff M. (2022). Collaborative Hubs: Making the Most of Predictive Epidemic Modeling. American journal of public health

Cramer EY, Ray EL, Lopez VK, Bracher J, Brennen A, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, Gneiting T, House KH, Huang Y, Jayawardena D, Kanji AH, Khandelwal A, Le K, Mühlemann A, Niemi J, Shah A, Stark A, Wang Y, Wattanachit N, Zorn MW, Gu Y, Jain S, Bannur N, Deva A, Kulkarni M, Merugu S, Raval A, Shingi S, Tiwari A, White J, Abernethy NF, Woody S, Dahan M, Fox S, Gaither K, Lachmann M, Meyers LA, Scott JG, Tec M, Srivastava A, George GE, Cegan JC, Dettwiller ID, England WP, Farthing MW, Hunter RH, Lafferty B, Linkov I, Mayo ML, Parno MD, Rowland MA, Trump BD, Zhang-James Y, Chen S, Faraone SV, Hess J, Morley CP, Salekin A, Wang D, Corsetti SM, Baer TM, Eisenberg MC, Falb K, Huang Y, Martin ET, McCauley E, Myers RL, Schwarz T, Sheldon D, Gibson GC, Yu R, Gao L, Ma Y, Wu D, Yan X, Jin X, Wang YX, Chen Y, Guo L, Zhao Y, Gu Q, Chen J, Wang L, Xu P, Zhang W, Zou D, Biegel H, Lega J, McConnell S, Nagraj VP, Guertin SL, Hulme-Lowe C, Turner SD, Shi Y, Ban X, Walraven R, Hong QJ, Kong S, van de Walle A, Turtle JA, Ben-Nun M, Riley S, Riley P, Koyluoglu U, DesRoches D, Forli P, Hamory B, Kyriakides C, Leis H, Milliken J, Moloney M, Morgan J, Nirgudkar N, Ozcan G, Piwonka N, Ravi M, Schrader C, Shakhnovich E, Siegel D, Spatz R, Stiefeling C, Wilkinson B, Wong A, Cavany S, España G, Moore S, Oidtman R, Perkins A, Kraus D, Kraus A, Gao Z, Bian J, Cao W, Lavista Ferres J, Li C, Liu TY, Xie X, Zhang S, Zheng S, Vespignani A, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastore Y Piontti A, Xiong X, Zheng A, Baek J, Farias V, Georgescu A, Levi R, Sinha D, Wilde J, Perakis G, Bennouna MA, Nze-Ndong D, Singhvi D, Spantidakis I, Thayaparan L, Tsiourvas A, Sarker A, Jadbabaie A, Shah D, Della Penna N, Celi LA, Sundar S, Wolfinger R, Osthus D, Castro L, Fairchild G, Michaud I, Karlen D, Kinsey M, Mullany LC, Rainwater-Lovett K, Shin L, Tallaksen K, Wilson S, Lee EC, Dent J, Grantz KH, Hill AL, Kaminsky J, Kaminsky K, Keegan LT, Lauer SA, Lemaitre JC, Lessler J, Meredith HR, Perez-Saez J, Shah S, Smith CP, Truelove SA, Wills J, Marshall M, Gardner L, Nixon K, Burant JC, Wang L, Gao L, Gu Z, Kim M, Li X, Wang G, Wang Y, Yu S, Reiner RC, Barber R, Gakidou E, Hay SI, Lim S, Murray C, Pigott D, Gurung HL, Baccam P, Stage SA, Suchoski BT, Prakash BA, Adhikari B, Cui J, Rodríguez A, Tabassum A, Xie J, Keskinocak P, Asplund J, Baxter A, Oruc BE, Serban N, Arik SO, Dusenberry M, Epshteyn A, Kanal E, Le LT, Li CL, Pfister T, Sava D, Sinha R, Tsai T, Yoder N, Yoon J, Zhang L, Abbott S, Bosse NI, Funk S, Hellewell J, Meakin SR, Sherratt K, Zhou M, Kalantari R, Yamana TK, Pei S, Shaman J, Li ML, Bertsimas D, Skali Lami O, Soni S, Tazi Bouardi H, Ayer T, Adee M, Chhatwal J, Dalgic OO, Ladd MA, Linas BP, Mueller P, Xiao J, Wang Y, Wang Q, Xie S, Zeng D, Green A, Bien J, Brooks L, Hu AJ, Jahja M, McDonald D, Narasimhan B, Politsch C, Rajanala S, Rumack A, Simon N, Tibshirani RJ, Tibshirani R, Ventura V, Wasserman L, O'Dea EB, Drake JM, Pagano R, Tran QT, Ho LST, Huynh H, Walker JW, Slayton RB, Johansson MA, Biggerstaff M, Reich NG. (2022). Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(15)

Cramer EY, Huang Y, Wang Y, Ray EL, Cornell M, Bracher J, Brennen A, Rivadeneira AJC, Gerding A, House K, Jayawardena D, Kanji AH, Khandelwal A, Le K, Mody V, Mody V, Niemi J, Stark A, Shah A, Wattanchit N, Zorn MW, Reich NG, . (2022). The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset. Scientific data, 9(1)

Ray EL, Brooks LC, Bien J, Biggerstaff M, Bosse NI, Bracher J, Cramer EY, Funk S, Gerding A, Johansson MA, Rumack A, Wang Y, Zorn M, Tibshirani RJ, Reich NG. (2022). Comparing trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States. International journal of forecasting

Bessesen MT, Rattigan S, Frederick J, Cummings DAT, Gaydos CA, Gibert CL, Gorse GJ, Nyquist AC, Price CS, Reich NG, Simberkoff MS, Brown AC, Radonovich LJ Jr., Perl TM, Rodriguez-Barradas MC. (2021). Outpatient Healthcare Personnel Knowledge and Attitudes Towards Infection Prevention Measures for Protection from Respiratory Infections. American journal of infection control

Snyder T, Ravenhurst J, Cramer EY, Reich NG, Balzer L, Alfandari D, Lover AA. (2021). Serological surveys to estimate cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults (Sero-MAss study), Massachusetts, July-August 2020: a mail-based cross-sectional study. BMJ open, 11(8)

McAndrew T, Reich NG. (2021). Adaptively stacking ensembles for influenza forecasting. Statistics in medicine

Los J, Gaydos CA, Gibert CL, Gorse GJ, Lykken J, Nyquist AC, Price CS, Radonovich LJ Jr., Rattigan S, Reich N, Rodriguez-Barradas M, Simberkoff M, Bessesen M, Brown A, Cummings DAT, Perl TM,. (2021). Take-Home Kits to Detect Respiratory Viruses among Healthcare Personnel: Lessons Learned from a Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial. American journal of infection control

Simberkoff MS, Rattigan SM, Gaydos CA, Gibert CL, Gorse GJ, Nyquist AC, Price CS, Reich N, Rodriguez-Barradas MC, Bessesen M, Brown A, Cummings DAT, Radonovich LJ, Perl TM, . (2021). Impact of mandatory vaccination of healthcare personnel on rates of influenza and other viral respiratory pathogens. Infection control and hospital epidemiology

Pollett S, Johansson MA, Reich NG, Brett-Major D, Del Valle SY, Venkatramanan S, Lowe R, Porco T, Berry IM, Deshpande A, Kraemer MUG, Blazes DL, Pan-Ngum W, Vespigiani A, Mate SE, Silal SP, Kandula S, Sippy R, Quandelacy TM, Morgan JJ, Ball J, Morton LC, Althouse BM, Pavlin J, van Panhuis W, Riley S, Biggerstaff M, Viboud C, Brady O, Rivers C. (2021). Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines. PLoS medicine, 18(10)

Gibson GC, Moran KR, Reich NG, Osthus D. (2021). Improving probabilistic infectious disease forecasting through coherence. PLoS computational biology, 17(1)

Brown AC, Lauer SA, Robinson CC, Nyquist AC, Rao S, Reich NG. (2020). Evaluating the ALERT algorithm for local outbreak onset detection in seasonal infectious disease surveillance data. Statistics in medicine

Biggerstaff M, Dahlgren FS, Fitzner J, George D, Hammond A, Hall I, Haw D, Imai N, Johansson MA, Kramer S, McCaw JM, Moss R, Pebody R, Read JM, Reed C, Reich NG, Riley S, Vandemaele K, Viboud C, Wu JT. (2020). Coordinating the real-time use of global influenza activity data for better public health planning. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 14(2)

Gibson GC, Reich NG, Sheldon D. (2020). REAL-TIME MECHANISTIC BAYESIAN FORECASTS OF COVID-19 MORTALITY. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

McAndrew TC, Reich NG. (2020). An expert judgment model to predict early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Weinberger DM, Cohen T, Crawford FW, Mostashari F, Olson D, Pitzer VE, Reich NG, Russi M, Simonsen L, Watkins A, Viboud C. (2020). Estimating the early death toll of COVID-19 in the United States. bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology

McAndrew T, Wattanachit N, Gibson GC, Reich NG. (2020). Aggregating predictions from experts: a review of statistical methods, experiments, and applications. Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Computational statistics, 13(2)

Lauer SA, Grantz KH, Bi Q, Jones FK, Zheng Q, Meredith HR, Azman AS, Reich NG, Lessler J. (2020). The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of internal medicine

Cummings DAT, Radonovich LJ, Gorse GJ, Gaydos CA, Bessesen MT, Brown AC, Gibert CL, Hitchings MDT, Lessler J, Nyquist AC, Rattigan SM, Rodriguez-Barradas MC, Price CS, Reich NG, Simberkoff MS, Perl TM. (2020). Risk Factors for Healthcare Personnel Infection with Endemic Coronaviruses (HKU1, OC43, NL63, 229E): Results from the Respiratory Protection Effectiveness Clinical Trial (ResPECT). Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

Pollett S, Johansson M, Biggerstaff M, Morton LC, Bazaco SL, Brett Major DM, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Pavlin JA, Mate S, Sippy R, Hartman LJ, Reich NG, Maljkovic Berry I, Chretien JP, Althouse BM, Myer D, Viboud C, Rivers C. (2020). Identification and evaluation of epidemic prediction and forecasting reporting guidelines: A systematic review and a call for action. Epidemics, (33)

Weinberger DM, Chen J, Cohen T, Crawford FW, Mostashari F, Olson D, Pitzer VE, Reich NG, Russi M, Simonsen L, Watkins A, Viboud C. (2020). Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020. JAMA internal medicine, 180(10)

Lauer Stephen A, Grantz Kyra H, Bi Qifang, Jones Forrest K, Zheng Qulu, Meredith Hannah, Azman Andrew S, Reich Nicholas G, Lessler Justin. (2020). The incubation period of 2019-nCoV from publicly reported confirmed cases: estimation and application

Al Hossain F, Lover AA, Corey GA, Reich NG, Rahman T. (2020). FluSense: A Contactless Syndromic Surveillance Platform for Influenza-Like Illness in Hospital Waiting Areas. Proceedings of the ACM on interactive, mobile, wearable and ubiquitous technologies, 4(1)

Reich NG, Osthus D, Ray EL, Yamana TK, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Rosenfeld R, Shaman J. (2019). Reply to Bracher: Scoring probabilistic forecasts to maximize public health interpretability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(42)

McGowan CJ, Biggerstaff M, Johansson M, Apfeldorf KM, Ben-Nun M, Brooks L, Convertino M, Erraguntla M, Farrow DC, Freeze J, Ghosh S, Hyun S, Kandula S, Lega J, Liu Y, Michaud N, Morita H, Niemi J, Ramakrishnan N, Ray EL, Reich NG, Riley P, Shaman J, Tibshirani R, Vespignani A, Zhang Q, Reed C, . (2019). Collaborative efforts to forecast seasonal influenza in the United States, 2015-2016. Scientific reports, 9(1)

Reich NG, Brooks LC, Fox SJ, Kandula S, McGowan CJ, Moore E, Osthus D, Ray EL, Tushar A, Yamana TK, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Rosenfeld R, Shaman J. (2019). A collaborative multiyear, multimodel assessment of seasonal influenza forecasting in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(8)

Rivers C, Chretien JP, Riley S, Pavlin JA, Woodward A, Brett-Major D, Maljkovic Berry I, Morton L, Jarman RG, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Reich NG, Meyer D, Snyder MR, Pollett S. (2019). Using "outbreak science" to strengthen the use of models during epidemics. Nature communications, 10(1)

Johansson MA, Apfeldorf KM, Dobson S, Devita J, Buczak AL, Baugher B, Moniz LJ, Bagley T, Babin SM, Guven E, Yamana TK, Shaman J, Moschou T, Lothian N, Lane A, Osborne G, Jiang G, Brooks LC, Farrow DC, Hyun S, Tibshirani RJ, Rosenfeld R, Lessler J, Reich NG, Cummings DAT, Lauer SA, Moore SM, Clapham HE, Lowe R, Bailey TC, García-Díez M, Carvalho MS, Rodó X, Sardar T, Paul R, Ray EL, Sakrejda K, Brown AC, Meng X, Osoba O, Vardavas R, Manheim D, Moore M, Rao DM, Porco TC, Ackley S, Liu F, Worden L, Convertino M, Liu Y, Reddy A, Ortiz E, Rivero J, Brito H, Juarrero A, Johnson LR, Gramacy RB, Cohen JM, Mordecai EA, Murdock CC, Rohr JR, Ryan SJ, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Weikel DP, Jutla A, Khan R, Poultney M, Colwell RR, Rivera-García B, Barker CM, Bell JE, Biggerstaff M, Swerdlow D, Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L, Forshey BM, Trtanj J, Asher J, Clay M, Margolis HS, Hebbeler AM, George D, Chretien JP. (2019). An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(48)

George DB, Taylor W, Shaman J, Rivers C, Paul B, O'Toole T, Johansson MA, Hirschman L, Biggerstaff M, Asher J, Reich NG. (2019). Technology to advance infectious disease forecasting for outbreak management. Nature communications, 10(1)

Reich NG, McGowan CJ, Yamana TK, Tushar A, Ray EL, Osthus D, Kandula S, Brooks LC, Crawford-Crudell W, Gibson GC, Moore E, Silva R, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Rosenfeld R, Shaman J. (2019). Accuracy of real-time multi-model ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the U.S. PLoS computational biology, 15(11)

Lauer SA, Sakrejda K, Ray EL, Keegan LT, Bi Q, Suangtho P, Hinjoy S, Iamsirithaworn S, Suthachana S, Laosiritaworn Y, Cummings DAT, Lessler J, Reich NG. (2018). Prospective forecasts of annual dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Thailand, 2010-2014. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(10)

Reich NG, Lessler J, Varma JK, Vora NM. (2018). Quantifying the Risk and Cost of Active Monitoring for Infectious Diseases. Scientific reports, 8(1)

Johansson MA, Reich NG, Meyers LA, Lipsitch M. (2018). Preprints: An underutilized mechanism to accelerate outbreak science. PLoS medicine, 15(4)

Ray EL, Reich NG. (2018). Prediction of infectious disease epidemics via weighted density ensembles. PLoS computational biology, 14(2)

Freeman JR, Whitcomb BW, Roy A, Bertone-Johnson ER, Reich NG, Healy AJ. (2018). A pilot longitudinal study of anti-Müllerian hormone levels throughout gestation in low risk pregnancy. Health science reports, 1(8)

Ray EL, Sakrejda K, Lauer SA, Johansson MA, Reich NG. (2017). Infectious disease prediction with kernel conditional density estimation. Statistics in medicine, 36(30)

Tushar A, Reich NG. (2017). flusight: interactive visualizations for infectious disease forecasts. Journal of open source software, 2(13)

Johansson MA, Reich NG, Hota A, Brownstein JS, Santillana M. (2016). Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico. Scientific reports, (6)

Reich NG, Lessler J, Sakrejda K, Lauer SA, Iamsirithaworn S, Cummings DA. (2016). Case study in evaluating time series prediction models using the relative mean absolute error. The American statistician, 70(3)

Lessler J, Ott CT, Carcelen AC, Konikoff JM, Williamson J, Bi Q, Kucirka LM, Cummings DA, Reich NG, Chaisson LH. (2016). Times to key events in Zika virus infection and implications for blood donation: a systematic review. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 94(11)

Reich NG, Lauer SA, Sakrejda K, Iamsirithaworn S, Hinjoy S, Suangtho P, Suthachana S, Clapham HE, Salje H, Cummings DA, Lessler J. (2016). Challenges in Real-Time Prediction of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue in Thailand. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 10(6)

Lauer SA, Kleinman KP, Reich NG. (2015). The effect of cluster size variability on statistical power in cluster-randomized trials. PLoS One, 10(4)

Reich NG, Cummings DA, Lauer SA, Zorn M, Robinson C, Nyquist AC, Price CS, Simberkoff M, Radonovich LJ, Perl TM. (2015). Triggering interventions for influenza: the ALERT algorithm. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 60(4)

Lee RM, Lessler J, Lee RA, Rudolph KE, Reich NG, Perl TM, Cummings DA. (2013). Incubation periods of viral gastroenteritis: a systematic review. BMC infectious diseases, (13)

Shardell M, Reich NG, Perencevich EN. (2013). Commentary: Back to the future with Sir Bradford Hill: statistical analysis with hospital-acquired infections. International journal of epidemiology, 42(5)

Reich NG, Shrestha S, King AA, Rohani P, Lessler J, Kalayanarooj S, Yoon IK, Gibbons RV, Burke DS, Cummings DA. (2013). Interactions between serotypes of dengue highlight epidemiological impact of cross-immunity. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 10(86)

Reich NG, Lessler J, Cummings DA, Brookmeyer R. (2012). Estimating absolute and relative case fatality ratios from infectious disease surveillance data. Biometrics, 68(2)

Reich NG, Myers JA, Obeng D, Milstone AM, Perl TM. (2012). Empirical power and sample size calculations for cluster-randomized and cluster-randomized crossover studies. PLoS One, 7(4)

Reich NG, Perl TM, Cummings DA, Lessler J. (2011). Visualizing clinical evidence: citation networks for the incubation periods of respiratory viral infections. PLoS One, 6(4)

Reich NG, Lessler J, Chu H, Cole SR. (2011). Identification of the asymptomatic ratio. Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 22(3)

Lessler J, Brookmeyer R, Reich NG, Nelson KE, Cummings DA, Perl TM. (2010). Identifying the probable timing and setting of respiratory virus infections. Infection control and hospital epidemiology, 31(8)

Lessler J, Reich NG, Cummings DA, , Nair HP, Jordan HT, Thompson N. (2009). Outbreak of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) at a New York City school. The New England journal of medicine, 361(27)

Lessler J, Reich NG, Brookmeyer R, Perl TM, Nelson KE, Cummings DA. (2009). Incubation periods of acute respiratory viral infections: a systematic review. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 9(5)

Reich NG, Lessler J, Cummings DA, Brookmeyer R. (2009). Estimating incubation period distributions with coarse data. Statistics in medicine, 28(22)

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