The MIDAS Webinar Series features research by MIDAS members, and is open to the public.
Date/time: Friday April 30, 12:00 – 1:00pm, EDT
Topic: COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub
- Rebecca Borchering, Penn State University
- Shaun Truelove, Johns Hopkins University
- Bryan Lewis, University of Virginia
- Alessandro Vespignani, Northeastern University
Abstract: Unpredictable drivers of epidemic trajectories, such as a changing policy environment, behavior change, and the development of new control measures, present challenges for forecasting the transmission and burden of infectious disease outbreaks. These challenges are particularly magnified at time scales greater than 3-4 weeks. However, policy decisions often require projections in the time frame of months, thus appropriately accounting for this uncertainty is necessary for responsible and effective guidance. We will present on the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has been developed to meet the need for longer-term projections of COVID-19 burden in the United States. During the most recent round, 6 groups submitted 6-month projections for 4 scenarios with 2 levels of vaccination and two levels of non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) reduction. We will present on the development of this hub, and the methodology used and results from this most recent round of projections.