The MIDAS Webinar Series features research by MIDAS members, and is open to the public.
Date/time: Friday September 25, 12:00 – 1:00pm, EDT
Topic: The impact of school reopening on COVID-19 transmission: modeling studies in Indiana, the San Francisco Bay Area, and King County, WA.
- Alex Perkins and Guido Espana, University of Notre Dame
- Justin Remais, Jennifer Head, Kristin Andrejko, University of California, Berkeley
- Daniel Klein, Institute for Disease Modeling, Seattle
School closures were implemented across the US to reduce the burden of COVID-19. Modeling the impact of school reopening under varying conditions can help to assess the associated risks and benefits. This MIDAS Webinar features the research of three groups and the simulation studies they conducted for populations in Indiana, the San Francisco Bay Area, and King County, Washington.
Alex Perkins and Guido Espana present an agent-based model to determine the impact of school reopening with varying levels of operating capacity and face-mask adherence on COVID-19 burden. Their model simulates daily activities of a synthetic population of Indiana, where transmission can occur in places such as schools, workplaces, community, and households. They model the impact of multiple scenarios, varying the levels of school operating capacity and mask adherence, and compare those scenarios to reopening at full capacity without face masks as well as to schools operating remotely.
Justin Remais, Jennifer Head, and Kristin Andrejko use an individual-based stochastic model to simulate COVID-19 transmission dynamics, incorporating social-contact data of school-aged children during shelter-in-place orders derived from Bay Area (California) household surveys. They evaluate various fall 2020 K-12 reopening strategies, and suggest that multiple in-school intervention strategies and community transmission reductions, beyond the extent achieved to date, will be necessary to avoid undue excess risk associated with school reopening.
Daniel Klein and colleagues at the Institute for Disease Modeling (IDM) used Covasim, an agent-based transmission and interventions model developed by IDM, to estimate the impact of school reopening on disease transmission and the extent to which screening, testing, and tracing of students and teachers as well as alternative in-person and remote schedules could mitigate epidemic spread within and outside of schools.