The MIDAS Webinar Series features research by MIDAS members, and is open to the public.
Date: Friday, September 24
Time: 12:00pm – 1:00pm Eastern (USA)
Topic: Behavioral responses and disease-economy trade-offs under alternative epidemic control strategies
Abstract: Public policy and academic debates regarding pandemic control strategies note disease-economy trade-offs, often prioritizing one outcome over the other. Using a calibrated, coupled epi-economic model of individual behavior embedded within the broader economy during a novel epidemic, we show that targeted isolation strategies can avert up to 91% of economic losses relative to voluntary isolation strategies. Unlike widely-used blanket lockdowns, economic savings of targeted isolation do not impose additional disease burdens, avoiding disease-economy trade-offs. Targeted isolation achieves this by addressing the fundamental coordination failure between infectious and susceptible individuals that drives the recession. Importantly, we show testing and compliance frictions can erode some of the gains from targeted isolation, but improving test quality unlocks the majority of the benefits of targeted isolation.
Speaker: Dr. Ana Bento, Assistant Professor, Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Indiana University – Bloomington,
Dr. Bento is a disease ecologist with a focus on ecology and evolution of infectious diseases. She earned her Ph.D. in Ecology & Evolution at Silwood Park, Imperial College London. After a MRC postdoctoral fellowship at Imperial College, Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Department, she held a postdoctoral position at the Odum School of Ecology, UGA. She uses theoretical models to understand how human and other animal systems behave generally, while simultaneously seeking to confront and validate models with data and make predictions.