Please be sure that your submission file meets the requirements specified in the submission template, and upload your file here. In order for your submission to be considered, please fill out the form below and then click the submit button when finished (allowed filetypes are csv, xlsx, and xls):
Model Short Name (please limit to 15 characters or fewer):*
Since, "Other" was selected as a Model Description, please describe your model type here:
Please provide a brief model description, including an explanation of the ways in which the above selected description(s) are applicable (e.g., to different parts or parameters of your model). Note, if you would like to include a model diagram, please do so as an optional file upload at the end*:
Model Component (e.g. compartment, probability, or rate)
Susceptibility*:
Not included
Explicitly included but not structured by age or sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age
Explicitly included, structured by sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age AND sex and/or gender
Type (or lack) of symptoms*:
Not included
Explicitly included but not structured by age or sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age
Explicitly included, structured by sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age AND sex and/or gender
Disease severity (e.g. mild/severe)*:
Not included
Explicitly included but not structured by age or sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age
Explicitly included, structured by sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age AND sex and/or gender
Time until infectious*:
Not included
Explicitly included but not structured by age or sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age
Explicitly included, structured by sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age AND sex and/or gender
Time until symptomatic*:
Not included
Explicitly included but not structured by age or sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age
Explicitly included, structured by sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age AND sex and/or gender
Reinfection (e.g. waning immunity)*:
Not included
Explicitly included but not structured by age or sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age
Explicitly included, structured by sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age AND sex and/or gender
Hospitalization (of any kind)*:
Not included
Explicitly included but not structured by age or sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age
Explicitly included, structured by sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age AND sex and/or gender
Entering intensive care/treatment unit (ICU/ITU)*:
Not included
Explicitly included but not structured by age or sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age
Explicitly included, structured by sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age AND sex and/or gender
Recovery*:
Not included
Explicitly included but not structured by age or sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age
Explicitly included, structured by sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age AND sex and/or gender
Disease related death/mortality*:
Not included
Explicitly included but not structured by age or sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age
Explicitly included, structured by sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age AND sex and/or gender
Testing*:
Not included
Explicitly included but not structured by age or sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age
Explicitly included, structured by sex and/or gender
Explicitly included, structured by age AND sex and/or gender
If applicable, indicate age groups used (if multiple age groups are used in different components of the model, please detail):
Please describe any other model components or structures considered (e.g. health conditions, pathogens besides SARS-CoV-2 simultaneously modelled, other groups/stratifications included):
MODEL PARAMETERS, UNCERTAINTY, AND OUTCOMES
Please enter the distribution of values (5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th quantiles) considered for the initial number of susceptible individuals (i.e., on May 15). If a distribution is not possible, then please provide a single median value::*
Please indicate importation rate(s) used (e.g. 1 case / week), if included in the model:
Please detail any assumed relationships between infected numbers and reported cases (e.g., reporting rate(s) used):*
Please detail modeling choices regarding proportion of asymptomatic individuals:*
If your model is able to produce a probability distribution for the probability of an outbreak, please provide the full distribution in the submission template and detail methods used to produce the distribution here:
Please enter the distribution of dates (5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th quantiles) at which the 5% intervention was set in motion (if a distribution is not possible, then please provide a single median value, or if not attained, indicate NA):*
Please enter the distribution of dates (5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th quantiles) at which the 2-week intervention was set in motion (if a distribution is not possible, then please provide a single median value, or if not attained, indicate NA):*
Please enter the distribution of values (5th, 25th,50th, 75th, 95th quantiles) observed for the final number of susceptible individuals (i.e., on Nov 15). If a distribution is not possible, then please provide a single median value:*
If available, please provide the distribution of values (5th, 25th,50th, 75th, 95th quantiles) observed for the daily new infections on final day (i.e., on Nov 15th). If a distribution is not possible, then please provide a single median value:
If available, please provide the distribution of values (5th, 25th,50th, 75th, 95th quantiles) observed for the daily deaths on final day (i.e., on Nov 15th). If a distribution is not possible, then please provide a single median value:
Below, please indicate whether component value(s) are fixed or whether uncertainty was accounted for and if so, how. . For each component, select the option that applies best from the following:
N/A (component not included)
Fixed (no uncertainty expressed regarding this component)
Uncertainty - Likelihood-based (uncertainty included; estimated using likelihood-based methods)
Uncertainty – Simulation (uncertainty included; values explored through simulation)
Uncertainty - Expert Judgment (uncertainty included; estimated using expert judgment), or
Uncertainty – Other (uncertainty included; values estimated by methods other than above)
Model Component
Susceptibility:*
N/A
Fixed
Uncertainty - Likelihood-based
Uncertainty - Simulation
Uncertainty - Expert Judgement
Uncertainty - Other
Type (or lack) of symptoms:*
N/A
Fixed
Uncertainty - Likelihood-based
Uncertainty - Simulation
Uncertainty - Expert Judgement
Uncertainty - Other
Disease severity (e.g. mild/severe):*
N/A
Fixed
Uncertainty - Likelihood-based
Uncertainty - Simulation
Uncertainty - Expert Judgement
Uncertainty - Other
Time until infectious:*
N/A
Fixed
Uncertainty - Likelihood-based
Uncertainty - Simulation
Uncertainty - Expert Judgement
Uncertainty - Other
Time until symptomatic:*
N/A
Fixed
Uncertainty - Likelihood-based
Uncertainty - Simulation
Uncertainty - Expert Judgement
Uncertainty - Other
Reinfection (e.g. waning immunity):*
N/A
Fixed
Uncertainty - Likelihood-based
Uncertainty - Simulation
Uncertainty - Expert Judgement
Uncertainty - Other
Hospitalization (of any kind):*
N/A
Fixed
Uncertainty - Likelihood-based
Uncertainty - Simulation
Uncertainty - Expert Judgement
Uncertainty - Other
Entering intensive care/treatment unit (ICU/ITU):*
N/A
Fixed
Uncertainty - Likelihood-based
Uncertainty - Simulation
Uncertainty - Expert Judgement
Uncertainty - Other
Recovery:*
N/A
Fixed
Uncertainty - Likelihood-based
Uncertainty - Simulation
Uncertainty - Expert Judgement
Uncertainty - Other
Disease related death/mortality:*
N/A
Fixed
Uncertainty - Likelihood-based
Uncertainty - Simulation
Uncertainty - Expert Judgement
Uncertainty - Other
Testing:*
N/A
Fixed
Uncertainty - Likelihood-based
Uncertainty - Simulation
Uncertainty - Expert Judgement
Uncertainty - Other
Please provide any additional details you think are important to note regarding uncertainty about model components here:
Please describe methods used to address any structural or other sources of uncertainty in your model, if applicable:
Interventions
Other(s):
Please detail model assumptions regarding compliance with NPIs, including for non-essential workplace closures:
If testing was included:
Please detail assumptions regarding testing location (i.e. community testing):
Please detail assumptions regarding testing rate:
Please list any other intervention(s) modeled and related assumptions:
DATA
Please describe/provide links to any additional data sources used:
MODEL CALIBRATION
Please describe the method used (if any) for model calibration:
Please list the parameters estimated and the range considered in the calibration:
Please specify initial conditions/prior distribution of each parameter used in the calibration:
MODEL HISTORY
If model has been used (in published research) before being applied to COVID-19, please detail other pathogen(s) to which the model has been applied and/or which locations (e.g. region, country) where this model has been previously applied:
Please include links/references to any key publications or pre-prints where the model has been used previously:
ADMINISTRATION
How many person-hours do you estimate were allocated to this modeling effort?*
ELICITATION
Please provide any feedback or suggestions as to what you think should have been requested for this and/or future elicitations (e.g. other objectives/metrics, interventions, settings, sources of uncertainty, or additional pertinent information that should have been explicitly requested):
To help with future elicitations, please provide any comments regarding this process that would have made it easier on participants:
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
If you have any additional documentation files available, that you are willing to share, please upload them here (e.g., epidemic curves, distributions of the underlying parameters, model diagram, or manuscript describing the model). Note there is a 5MB upload limit. Allowed file types are: csv, xls, xlsx, pdf, jpg, and png. Select multiple files in your browser window if you'd like to upload multiple files:
Please provide any other general comments or suggestions here:
Submit