Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2.


. Here we use age-specific COVID-19 death data from 45 countries and the results of 22 seroprevalence studies to investigate the consistency of infection and fatality patterns across multiple countries. We find that the age distribution of deaths in younger age groups (<65 years) is very consistent across different settings and demonstrate how this data can provide robust estimates of the share of the population that has been infected. We estimate that the infection-to-fatality ratio (IFR) is lowest among 5-9 years old, with a log-linear increase by age among individuals older than 30 years. Population age-structures and heterogeneous burdens in nursing homes explain some but not all of the heterogeneity between countries in infection-fatality ratios. Among the 45 countries included in our analysis, we estimate approximately 5% of these populations had been infected by the 1st of September 2020, with much higher transmission likely to have occurred in a number of Latin American countries. This simple modelling framework can help countries assess the progression of the pandemic and can be applied wherever reliable age-specific death data exists.

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