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An Agent-Based Model of School Closing in Under-Vacccinated Communities During Measles Outbreaks.

Abstract

≈ 7 for measles. We show this implies that herd immunity requires vaccination coverage of greater than approximately 85%. We used a network structured version of our NOVA model that involved two communities, one at the relatively low coverage of 85% coverage and one at the higher coverage of 95%, both of which had 400-student schools embedded, as well as students occasionally visiting superspreading sites (e.g. high-density theme parks, cinemas, etc.). These two vaccination coverage levels are within the range of values occurring across California counties. Transmission rates at schools and superspreading sites were arbitrarily set to respectively 5 and 15 times background community rates. Simulations of our model demonstrate that a 'send unvaccinated students home' policy in low coverage counties is extremely effective at shutting down outbreaks of measles.

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Citation:

Getz WM, Carlson C, Dougherty E, Porco Francis TC 1st., Salter R. (2016). An Agent-Based Model of School Closing in Under-Vacccinated Communities During Measles Outbreaks. Agent-Directed Simulation Symposium (ADS). Agent-directed Simulation Symposium, (2016)