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Changes in SARS CoV-2 Seroprevalence Over Time in Ten Sites in the United States, March - August, 2020.

Abstract

Estimated seroprevalence was low in most sites, indicating that most people in the U.S. have not been infected with SARS-CoV-2 as of July 2020. The majority of infections are likely not reported. Decreases in seroprevalence may be related to changes in healthcare-seeking behavior, or evidence of waning of detectable anti-SARS CoV-2 antibody levels at the population level. Thus, seroprevalence estimates may underestimate the cumulative incidence of infection.

Monitoring of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody prevalence can complement case reporting to inform more accurate estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection burden, but few studies have undertaken repeated sampling over time on a broad geographic scale.

Seroprevalence remained below 10% at all sites except New York and Florida, where it reached 23.2% and 13.3%, respectively. Statistically significant increases in seroprevalence followed peaks in reported cases in New York, South Florida, Utah, Missouri and Louisiana. In the absence of such peaks, some significant decreases were observed over time in New York, Missouri, Utah, and Western Washington. The estimated cumulative number of infections with detectable antibody response continued to exceed reported cases in all sites.

We performed serologic testing on a convenience sample of residual sera obtained from persons of all ages, at ten sites in the United States from March 23 through August 14, 2020, from routine clinical testing at commercial laboratories. We age-sex-standardized our seroprevalence rates using census population projections and adjusted for laboratory assay performance. Confidence intervals were generated with a two-stage bootstrap. We used Bayesian modeling to test whether seroprevalence changes over time were statistically significant.

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