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Characterizing the likelihood of dengue emergence and detection in naïve populations.

Abstract

We constructed a stochastic, compartmental model to describe the heterogeneity of human viremia and calculate the probability of a successful introduction, taking into account the viremia level (and thus acquisition potential) of the index case on, and after, the day of introduction into a susceptible population and varying contact rates between the human and mosquito populations. We then compared the results of this model with those generated by a simpler model that has the same average infectiousness but only a single infectious class.

Vector-borne disease transmission is dependent on the many nuances of the contact event between infectious and susceptible hosts. Virus acquisition from a viremic human to a susceptible mosquito is often assumed to be nearly perfect and almost always uniform across the infectious period. Dengue transmission models that have previously addressed variability in human to vector transmission dynamics do not account for the variation in infectiousness of a single individual, and subsequent infection of naïve mosquitoes. Understanding the contribution of this variability in human infectiousness is especially important in the context of introduction events where an infected individual carries the virus into a population of competent vectors. Furthermore, it could affect the ability to detect an epidemic (and the timing of detection) following introduction.

We found that the infectivity of the index case as well as the contact rate affected the probability of emergence, but that contact rate had the most significant effect. We also found that the interaction between contact rate and the infectiousness of the index case affected the time to detection relative to the peak of the epidemic curve. Additionally, when compared to our model that accounts for variable infectiousness, a model with a single infectious class underestimates the probability of emergence and transmission intensity.

Understanding the interplay between individual human heterogeneity of infectiousness and the rate of contact with the vector population will be important when predicting the likelihood, detection, and magnitude of an outbreak.

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