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Epidemic doubling time of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak by province in mainland China

Abstract

We analyzed the epidemic doubling time of the 2019-nCoV outbreak by province in mainland China. Mean doubling time ranged from 1.0 to 3.3 days, being 2.4 days for Hubei (January 20-February 2, 2020). Trajectory of increasing doubling time by province indicated social distancing measures slowed the epidemic with some success.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementGC acknowledges support from NSF grant 1414374 as part of the joint NSF-NIH-USDA Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases program. ICHF acknowledges salary support from the National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (19IPA1908208). This article is not part of ICHF s CDC-sponsored projects.Author DeclarationsAll relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.YesAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data analyzed is publicly available, aggregated, data. We will attach the data that generate the results to the final, published, version of this manuscript.

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