Evolving epidemiology of novel coronavirus diseases 2019 and possible interruption of local transmission outside Hubei Province in China: a descriptive and modeling study.


) at the provincial level.

Our findings suggest that the strict containment measures and movement restrictions in place may contribute to the interruption of local COVID-19 transmission outside Hubei Province. The shorter serial interval estimated here implies that transmissibility is not as high as initial estimates suggested.

The COVID-19 epidemic originated in Wuhan City of Hubei Province in December 2019 and has spread throughout China. Understanding the fast evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the outbreak beyond Hubei would provide timely information to guide intervention policy.

was estimated to be below the epidemic threshold since the end of January.

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