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Modeling the Comparative Impact of Individual Quarantine vs. Active Monitoring of Contacts for the Mitigation of COVID-19

Abstract

Individual quarantine and active monitoring of contacts are core disease control strategies, particularly for emerging infectious diseases such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). To estimate the comparative efficacy of these interventions to control COVID-19, we fit a stochastic branching model, comparing two sets of reported parameters for the dynamics of the disease. Our results suggest that individual quarantine may contain an outbreak of COVID-19 with a short serial interval (4.8 days) only in settings with high intervention performance where at least three-quarters of infected contacts are individually quarantined. However, in settings where this performance is unrealistically high and the outbreak of COVID-19 continues to grow, so too will the burden of the number of contacts traced for active monitoring or quarantine. In such circumstances where resources are prioritized for scalable interventions such as social distancing, we show active monitoring or individual quarantine of high-risk contacts can contribute synergistically to social distancing. To the extent that interventions based on contact tracing can be implemented, therefore, they can help mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Our model highlights the urgent need for more data on the serial interval and the extent of presymptomatic transmission in order to make data-driven policy decisions regarding the cost-benefit comparisons of individual quarantine vs. active monitoring of contacts. ### Competing Interest Statement ML reports grants from NIH/NIGMS, during the conduct of the study; personal fees from Merck, grants from CDC, grants from Open Philanthropy Project, outside the submitted work. ### Funding Statement This work was supported in part by Award Number U54GM088558 from the US National Institute Of General Medical Sciences. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institute Of General Medical Sciences, the National Institutes of Health, or other contributing agencies. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Code will be available on github. [https://github.com/peakcm/General_Quarantine_Paper][1] [1]: https://github.com/peakcm/General_Quarantine_Paper

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Citation:

Peak Corey M, Kahn Rebecca, Grad Yonatan H, Childs Lauren M, Li Ruoran, Lipsitch Marc, Buckee Caroline O. (2020). Modeling the Comparative Impact of Individual Quarantine vs. Active Monitoring of Contacts for the Mitigation of COVID-19. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press