There is an urgent need to project how transmission of the novel betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2 will unfold in coming years. These dynamics will depend on seasonality, the duration of immunity, and the strength of cross-immunity to/from the other human coronaviruses. Using data from the United States, we measured how these factors affect transmission of human betacoronaviruses HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1. We then built a mathematical model to simulate transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through the year 2025. We project that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after an initial pandemic wave. We summarize the full range of plausible transmission scenarios and identify key data still needed to distinguish between them, most importantly longitudinal serological studies to determine the duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2.
### Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
### Funding Statement
The authors received no funding for this work.
### Author Declarations
All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
A data use agreement with the CDC is required to access the NREVSS human coronavirus dataset. ILINet data is publicly available through the FluView Interactive website (19). Regression model code is available at https://github.com/ctedijanto/coronavirus-seasonality. Transmission model code is available at https://github.com/skissler/nCoV_introduction.
Kissler Stephen M, Tedijanto Christine, Goldstein Edward, Grad Yonatan H., Lipsitch Marc. (2020). Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press