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Risk of 2019 novel coronavirus importations throughout China prior to the Wuhan quarantine

Abstract

On January 23, 2020, China quarantined Wuhan to contain an emerging coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Here, we estimate the probability of 2019-nCoV importations from Wuhan to 369 cities throughout China before the quarantine. The expected risk exceeds 50% in 128 [95% CI 75 186] cities, including five large cities with no reported cases by January 26th.

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