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Spatial Modeling of Influenza Outbreaks in Saint Petersburg Using Synthetic Populations

Abstract

In this paper, we model influenza propagation in the Russian setting using a spatially explicit model and a detailed human agent database as its input. The aim of the research is to assess the applicability of this modeling method using influenza incidence data for 2010–2011 epidemic outbreak in Saint Petersburg and to compare the simulation results with the output of the compartmental SEIR model for the same outbreak. For this purpose, a synthetic population of Saint Petersburg was built and used for the simulation via FRED open source modeling framework. The parameters related to the outbreak (background immunity level and effective contact rate) are assessed by calibrating the compartmental model to incidence data. We show that the current version of synthetic population allows the agent-based model to reproduce real disease incidence.

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