Ayesha Mahmud

Assistant Professor of Demography




I am a demographer, and am broadly interested in the interplay between human population changes, environmental factors, and infectious disease dynamics. My research draws on theory and methods from demography and disease ecology, to answer questions such as - why do outbreaks occur at certain times of the year? How and why does the mortality burden of infectious diseases vary over time? How do population travel patterns drive the spatial dynamics of outbreaks? How will global environmental and demographic changes alter the landscape of infectious disease burden in the future? I use statistical methods and biologically mechanistic models to answer these questions in the context of multiple diseases in countries in Asia, Africa, and Central America, using data from disease surveillance systems, hospital databases, climate models, human mobility data, and population surveys and censuses. Prior to coming to Berkeley, I was a Rockefeller Foundation Planetary Health Fellow at Harvard University. I received my Ph.D. in Demography from Princeton University in 2017.

Preferred Pronouns


Personal Academic Website

Research/Topics of Interest

Apply models to public health
Climate/environmental drivers
Compartmental models
Geospatial models
Public health application of models
Public health policy/interventions
Social networks/contact patterns
Spatial transmission patterns
Statistical models
Time-series models

Pathogens/Diseases of Main Interest/Expertise

Vaccine-preventable diseases

Countries of Work/Collaboration

United States



Mena GE, Martinez PP, Mahmud AS, Marquet PA, Buckee CO, Santillana M. (2021). Socioeconomic status determines COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in Santiago, Chile. Science (New York, N.Y.)

Kishore N, Kahn R, Martinez PP, de Salazar PM, Mahmud AS, Buckee CO. (2021). Lockdowns result in changes in human mobility which may impact the epidemiologic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Scientific reports, 11(1)

Brown TS, Engø-Monsen K, Kiang MV, Mahmud AS, Maude RJ, Buckee CO. (2021). The impact of mobility network properties on predicted epidemic dynamics in Dhaka and Bangkok. Epidemics, (35)

Lewnard JA, Mahmud A, Narayan T, Wahl B, Selvavinayagam TS, Mohan B C, Laxminarayan R. (2021). All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Chennai, India: an observational study. The Lancet. Infectious diseases

Mahmud AS, Chowdhury S, Sojib KH, Chowdhury A, Quader MT, Paul S, Saidy MS, Uddin R, Engø-Monsen K, Buckee CO. (2021). Participatory syndromic surveillance as a tool for tracking COVID-19 in Bangladesh. Epidemics, (35)

Baker RE, Mahmud AS, Miller IF, Rajeev M, Rasambainarivo F, Rice BL, Takahashi S, Tatem AJ, Wagner CE, Wang LF, Wesolowski A, Metcalf CJE. (2021). Infectious disease in an era of global change. Nature reviews. Microbiology

Cowley LA, Afrad MH, Rahman SIA, Mamun MMA, Chin T, Mahmud A, Rahman MZ, Billah MM, Khan MH, Sultana S, Khondaker T, Baker S, Banik N, Alam AN, Mannoor K, Banu S, Chowdhury A, Flora MS, Thomson NR, Buckee CO, Qadri F, Shirin T. (2021). Genomics, social media and mobile phone data enable mapping of SARS-CoV-2 lineages to inform health policy in Bangladesh. Nature microbiology

Mahmud AS, Kabir MI, Engø-Monsen K, Tahmina S, Riaz BK, Hossain MA, Khanom F, Rahman MM, Rahman MK, Sharmin M, Hossain DM, Yasmin S, Ahmed MM, Lusha MAF, Buckee CO. (2021). Megacities as drivers of national outbreaks: The 2017 chikungunya outbreak in Dhaka, Bangladesh. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 15(2)

Chang HH, Chang MC, Kiang M, Mahmud AS, Ekapirat N, Engø-Monsen K, Sudathip P, Buckee CO, Maude RJ. (2021). Low parasite connectivity among three malaria hotspots in Thailand. Scientific reports, 11(1)

Mahmud AS, Martinez PP, He J, Baker RE. (2020). The Impact of Climate Change on Vaccine-Preventable Diseases: Insights From Current Research and New Directions. Current environmental health reports

Lewnard JA, Liu VX, Jackson ML, Schmidt MA, Jewell BL, Flores JP, Jentz C, Northrup GR, Mahmud A, Reingold AL, Petersen M, Jewell NP, Young S, Bellows J. (2020). Incidence, clinical outcomes, and transmission dynamics of severe coronavirus disease 2019 in California and Washington: prospective cohort study. BMJ (Clinical research ed.), (369)

Chin T, Buckee CO, Mahmud AS. (2020). Quantifying the success of measles vaccination campaigns in the Rohingya refugee camps. Epidemics, (30)

Martinez PP, Mahmud AS, Yunus M, Faruque ASG, Ahmed T, Pascual M, Buckee CO. (2020). Tube Well Use as Protection Against Rotavirus Infection During the Monsoons in an Urban Setting. The Journal of infectious diseases, 221(2)

Kahn R, Mahmud AS, Schroeder A, Aguilar Ramirez LH, Crowley J, Chan J, Buckee CO. (2019). Rapid Forecasting of Cholera Risk in Mozambique: Translational Challenges and Opportunities. Prehospital and disaster medicine, 34(5)

Baker RE, Mahmud AS, Wagner CE, Yang W, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Vecchi GA, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT. (2019). Epidemic dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in current and future climates. Nature communications, 10(1)

Chang HH, Wesolowski A, Sinha I, Jacob CG, Mahmud A, Uddin D, Zaman SI, Hossain MA, Faiz MA, Ghose A, Sayeed AA, Rahman MR, Islam A, Karim MJ, Rezwan MK, Shamsuzzaman AKM, Jhora ST, Aktaruzzaman MM, Drury E, Gonçalves S, Kekre M, Dhorda M, Vongpromek R, Miotto O, Engø-Monsen K, Kwiatkowski D, Maude RJ, Buckee C. (2019). Mapping imported malaria in Bangladesh using parasite genetic and human mobility data. Elife, (8)

Kishore N, Marqués D, Mahmud A, Kiang MV, Rodriguez I, Fuller A, Ebner P, Sorensen C, Racy F, Lemery J, Maas L, Leaning J, Irizarry RA, Balsari S, Buckee CO. (2018). Mortality in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. The New England journal of medicine, 379(2)

Buckee CO, Cardenas MIE, Corpuz J, Ghosh A, Haque F, Karim J, Mahmud AS, Maude RJ, Mensah K, Motaze NV, Nabaggala M, Metcalf CJE, Mioramalala SA, Mubiru F, Peak CM, Pramanik S, Rakotondramanga JM, Remera E, Sinha I, Sovannaroth S, Tatem AJ, Zaw W. (2018). Productive disruption: opportunities and challenges for innovation in infectious disease surveillance. BMJ global health, 3(1)

Bhatia A, Mahmud A, Fuller A, Shin R, Rahman A, Shatil T, Sultana M, Morshed KAM, Leaning J, Balsari S. (2018). The Rohingya in Cox's Bazar: When the Stateless Seek Refuge. Health and human rights, 20(2)

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