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Daniel Villela

Daniel A. M. Villela

Bio

Education

Affiliations

Preferred Pronouns

He/him/his

Personal Academic Website

https://dvmathepi.weebly.com/

Topics of Interest/Expertise
 

Countries of Work/Collaboration

Projects

Papers

Medeiros-Junior NF, Gouvea MDPG, Camacho LAB, Villela DAM, Lima SMB, Schwarcz WD, Azevedo AS, Neto LFP, Domingues CMAS, Fantoni RNDS, Forechi L, Ruchdeschel T, Albertino LF, Pereira M, Rizzi RB, Muniz SM, Santos HCD, de Oliveira Roza TL, Oliveira YGP, Dias LH, Miyamoto ST, Tapia KRL, Lyra DGP, Jubini JD, Burian APN, Moulaz IR, Araújo MF, Tort LFL, Oliveira ACA, Oliveira Prado R, Pereira AAS, Miranda VHS, Speziali E, Costa-Pereira C, Alves CC, Carvalho KRA, Dos Santos LM, Oliveira-Carvalho N, Oliveira G, Santos TMAFD, Figueiredo ACC, Costa-Rocha IA, Campi-Azevedo AC, Peruhype-Magalhães V, Garcia CC, Siqueira MM, Antonelli LRDV, Coelho-Dos-Reis JGA, Teixeira-Carvalho A, Mill JG, Martins-Filho OA, Valim V. (2025). Third Booster Half Dose of ChAdOx1-nCov-19 Is Effective, Safe, and Induces Long-Duration Humoral and Cellular Immune Response to Omicron: 1-Year Follow-Up of Viana Study. Vaccines, 13(11)

Naidoo M, Shephard W, Mtshali N, Kambewe I, Muthien B, Abuelezam NN, Ponce-de-Leon M, Villela DAM, Paes-Sousa R, Pan-Ngum W, Dowdy D, Morse SS, Pena D, Barberia LG, Houben RMGJ, Arcos González P, Robertson JE, Muleia R, Lawal O, Rasella D. (2025). How to incorporate social vulnerability into epidemic mathematical modelling: recommendations from an international Delphi. Social science & medicine (1982), (383)

Santos CVBD, Coelho LE, Goedert GT, Luz PM, Werneck GL, Villela DAM, Struchiner CJ. (2025). Disability-adjusted life years associated with COVID-19 in Brazil, 2020. PloS one, 20(3)

Villela DAM. (2025). Predicting high dengue incidence in municipalities of Brazil using path signatures. Scientific reports, 15(1)

Neves RKAD, Bastos LS, Villela DAM, Gomes MFDC, Carvalho LM, Pacheco AGF. (2025). Hospital readmission rates and factors due to COVID-19 reinfections: a registry-based cohort study in Brazil (2020-2022). BMC public health, 25(1)

Dos Santos CVB, Coelho LE, de Noronha TG, Goedert GT, Csillag D, Luz PM, Werneck GL, Villela DAM, Struchiner CJ. (2025). The impact of vaccination on the length of stay of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Brazil. Vaccine, (48)

Freitas LP, Codeço CT, Bastos LS, Villela DAM, Cruz OG, Pacheco AG, Coelho FC, Lana RM, Carvalho LMF, Niquini RP, Almeida WAF, Silva DAD, Carvalho FC, Gomes MFDC. (2024). Evaluation of the design of the influenza-like illness sentinel surveillance system in Brazil. Cadernos de saude publica, 40(6)

de Souza Leandro A, de Oliveira F, Lopes RD, Rivas AV, Martins CA, Silva I, Villela DAM, Teixeira MG, Xavier SCDC, Maciel-de-Freitas R. (2024). The fuzzy system ensembles entomological, epidemiological, demographic and environmental data to unravel the dengue transmission risk in an endemic city. BMC public health, 24(1)

Lima MAN, Villela DAM. (2024). Bed demand and occupancy within the Brazilian National Health System for the most common types of cancer in Brazil, from 2018 to 2021: a cross-sectional study. Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil, (33)

Price DJ, Nekkab N, Monteiro WM, Villela DAM, Simpson JA, Lacerda MVG, White MT, Devine A. (2024). Tafenoquine following G6PD screening versus primaquine for the treatment of vivax malaria in Brazil: A cost-effectiveness analysis using a transmission model. PLoS medicine, 21(1)

Valiati NCM, Rice B, Villela DAM. (2024). Disentangling the seasonality effects of malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon basin. Royal Society open science, 11(7)

da Penha Gomes Gouvea M, Lira Machado KLL, de Oliveira YGP, Moulaz IR, Henriques AG, Gouveia TM, Thompson BP, Lança KEM, de Souza Ramos S, Lacerda GCC, Lenzi JPG, de Castro Pimentel F, Miossi JPM, Rassele ML, Camacho LAB, Villela DAM, de Lima SMB, de Souza Azevedo A, Horbach IS, de Araújo MF, Tort LFL, de Oliveira ACA, Siqueira MM, Garcia CC, da Costa-Rocha IA, Campi-Azevedo AC, Peruhype-Magalhães V, da Silva VG, Miyamoto ST, Dos Santos Fantoni RN, Pinto-Neto LF, Magda Domingues C, de Medeiros Junior NF, Burian AP, Teixeira-Carvalho A, Mota LMH, Mill JG, Martins-Filho OA, Valim V. (2023). Timeline kinetics of protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 upon primary vaccination and humoral response to variants after booster dose. Vaccine

Shi H, Wang J, Cheng J, Qi X, Ji H, Struchiner CJ, Villela DA, Karamov EV, Turgiev AS. (2023). Big data technology in infectious diseases modeling, simulation, and prediction after the COVID-19 outbreak. Intelligent medicine, 3(2)

Santos CVBD, Valiati NCM, Noronha TG, Porto VBG, Pacheco AG, Freitas LP, Coelho FC, Gomes MFDC, Bastos LS, Cruz OG, Lana RM, Luz PM, Carvalho LMF, Werneck GL, Struchiner CJ, Villela DAM. (2023). The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against severe cases and deaths in Brazil from 2021 to 2022: a registry-based study. Lancet regional health. Americas, (20)

Ayala MJC, Valiati NCM, Bastos LS, Villela DAM. (2023). Notification of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Basin from 2010 to 2020: an analysis of the reporting times. Malaria journal, 22(1)

Marion G, Hadley L, Isham V, Mollison D, Panovska-Griffiths J, Pellis L, Tomba GS, Scarabel F, Swallow B, Trapman P, Villela D. (2022). Modelling: Understanding pandemics and how to control them. Epidemics, (39)

Valim V, Martins-Filho OA, Gouvea MDPG, Camacho LAB, Villela DAM, de Lima SMB, Azevedo AS, Neto LFP, Domingues CMAS, de Medeiros Junior NF, Moulaz IR, Dias LH, Miyamoto ST, Teixeira-Carvalho A, Mill JG, . (2022). Effectiveness, safety, and immunogenicity of half dose ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 COVID-19 Vaccine: Viana project. Frontiers in immunology, (13)

Santos CVBD, Noronha TG, Werneck GL, Struchiner CJ, Villela DAM. (2022). Estimated COVID-19 severe cases and deaths averted in the first year of the vaccination campaign in Brazil: A retrospective observational study. Lancet regional health. Americas, (17)

Villela DAM, Gomes MFDC. (2022). Importance of data availability and timely information for epidemiological surveillance. Cadernos de saude publica, 38(7)

Leandro AS, Ayala MJC, Lopes RD, Martins CA, Maciel-de-Freitas R, Villela DAM. (2022). Entomo-Virological Aedes aegypti Surveillance Applied for Prediction of Dengue Transmission: A Spatio-Temporal Modeling Study. Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland), 12(1)

Ayala MJC, Bastos LS, Villela DAM. (2022). On multifactorial drivers for malaria rebound in Brazil: a spatio-temporal analysis. Malaria journal, 21(1)

Basu S, Hone T, Villela D, Saraceni V, Trajman A, Durovni B, Millett C, Rasella D. (2022). Contribution of primary care expansion to Sustainable Development Goal 3 for health: a microsimulation of the 15 largest cities in Brazil. BMJ open, 12(1)

Kretzschmar ME, Ashby B, Fearon E, Overton CE, Panovska-Griffiths J, Pellis L, Quaife M, Rozhnova G, Scarabel F, Stage HB, Swallow B, Thompson RN, Tildesley MJ, Villela D. (2022). Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics. Epidemics, (38)

Swallow B, Birrell P, Blake J, Burgman M, Challenor P, Coffeng LE, Dawid P, De Angelis D, Goldstein M, Hemming V, Marion G, McKinley TJ, Overton CE, Panovska-Griffiths J, Pellis L, Probert W, Shea K, Villela D, Vernon I. (2022). Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling. Epidemics, (38)

Nekkab N, Lana R, Lacerda M, Obadia T, Siqueira A, Monteiro W, Villela D, Mueller I, White M. (2021). Estimated impact of tafenoquine for Plasmodium vivax control and elimination in Brazil: A modelling study. PLoS medicine, 18(4)

Valiati NCM, Villela DAM. (2021). Modelling policy combinations of vaccination and transmission suppression of SARS-CoV-2 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Infectious Disease Modelling

Lima MAN, Villela DAM. (2021). [Sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with time to treatment for colorectal cancer in Brazil, 2006-2015]. Cadernos de saude publica, 37(5)

Guimarães RM, Portela MC, Villela DAM, Correa Matta G, de Freitas CM. (2021). Younger Brazilians hit by COVID-19 - What are the implications?. Lancet Regional Health. Americas

Lana R, Nekkab N, Siqueira AM, Peterka C, Marchesini P, Lacerda M, Mueller I, White M, Villela D. (2021). The top 1%: quantifying the unequal distribution of malaria in Brazil. Malaria journal, 20(1)

Balieiro AAS, Siqueira AM, Melo GC, Monteiro WM, Sampaio VS, Mueller I, Lacerda MVG, Villela DAM. (2021). Short-Time Recurrences of Plasmodium vivax Malaria as a Public Health Proxy for Chloroquine-Resistance Surveillance: A Spatio-Temporal Study in the Brazilian Amazon. International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(10)

Villela DAM. (2021). Household crowding hampers mitigating the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, (54)

Lana RM, Freitas LP, Codeço CT, Pacheco AG, Carvalho LMF, Villela DAM, Coelho FC, Cruz OG, Niquini RP, Porto VBG, Gava C, Gomes MFDC, Bastos LS. (2021). Identification of priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil. Cadernos de saude publica, 37(10)

Camila P de Jesus, Fernando Dias, Daniel Villela, Rafael Maciel-de-Freitas. (2020). Ovitraps Provide a Reliable Estimate of Wolbachia Frequency during wMelBr Strain Deployment in a Geographically Isolated Aedes aegypti Population. Insects, 11(2)

Ayala MJC, Villela DAM. (2020). Early transmission of sensitive strain slows down emergence of drug resistance in Plasmodium vivax. PLoS computational biology, 16(6)

Niquini RP, Lana RM, Pacheco AG, Cruz OG, Coelho FC, Carvalho LM, Villela DAM, Gomes MFDC, Bastos LS. (2020). Description and comparison of demographic characteristics and comorbidities in SARI from COVID-19, SARI from influenza, and the Brazilian general population. Cadernos de saude publica, 36(7)

Bastos LS, Niquini RP, Lana RM, Villela DAM, Cruz OG, Coelho FC, Codeço CT, Gomes MFC. (2020). COVID-19 and hospitalizations for SARI in Brazil: a comparison up to the 12th epidemiological week of 2020. Cadernos de saude publica, 36(4)

Flávio C Coelho, Raquel M Lana, Oswaldo G Cruz, Daniel Villela, Leonardo S Bastos, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Jessica T Davis, Alessandro Vespignani, Claudia Codeco, Marcelo FC Gomes. (2020). Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, Morbidity and the burden on the Health Care System. SSRN

Coelho FC, Lana RM, Cruz OG, Villela DAM, Bastos LS, Pastore Y Piontti A, Davis JT, Vespignani A, Codeço CT, Gomes MFC. (2020). Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability. PloS one, 15(9)

Paiva NS, Villela DAM, Bastos LS, Bastos FI. (2020). Women who have undergone abortion in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: application of a Bayesian hierarchical model. Cadernos de saude publica, 36Suppl 1(Suppl 1)

Garcia GA, Hoffmann AA, Maciel-de-Freitas R, Villela DAM. (2020). Aedes aegypti insecticide resistance underlies the success (and failure) of Wolbachia population replacement. Scientific reports, 10(1)

Viana PVS, Paiva NS, Villela DAM, Bastos LS, de Souza Bierrenbach AL, Basta PC. (2020). Factors associated with death in patients with tuberculosis in Brazil: Competing risks analysis. PloS one, 15(10)

Villela DAM. (2020). Discrete time forecasting of epidemics. Infectious Disease Modelling, (5)

Claudia Codeco, Oswaldo Cruz, Thais I Riback, Carolin M Degener, Marcelo F Gomes, Daniel Villela, Leonardo Bastos, Sabrina Camargo, Valeria Saraceni, Maria Cristina F Lemos, Flavio C Coelho. (2019). InfoDengue: a nowcasting system for the surveillance of dengue fever transmission. bioRxiv

Viana PVdS, NS Paiva, DAM Villela, LS Bastos, Bierrenbach ALdS, PC Basta. (2019). Factors associated with death in patients with tuberculosis in Brazil: survival analysis with competitive risks. Research Square

Bastos LS, Economou T, Gomes MFC, Villela DAM, Coelho FC, Cruz OG, Stoner O, Bailey T, Codeço CT. (2019). A modelling approach for correcting reporting delays in disease surveillance data. Statistics in medicine, 38(22)

Strugarek M, Dufour L, Vauchelet N, Almeida L, Perthame B, Villela DAM. (2019). Oscillatory regimes in a mosquito population model with larval feedback on egg hatching. Journal of biological dynamics, 13(1)

Garcia GA, Sylvestre G, Aguiar R, da Costa GB, Martins AJ, Lima JBP, Petersen MT, Lourenço-de-Oliveira R, Shadbolt MF, Rašić G, Hoffmann AA, Villela DAM, Dias FBS, Dong Y, O'Neill SL, Moreira LA, Maciel-de-Freitas R. (2018). Matching the genetics of released and local Aedes aegypti populations is critical to assure Wolbachia invasion. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 13(1)

Mario JC Ayala, Daniel AM Villela. (2018). Early transmission of sensitive strain slows down emergence of drug resistance in Plasmodium vivax. bioRxiv

Codeço CT, Villela DAM, Coelho FC. (2018). Estimating the effective reproduction number of dengue considering temperature-dependent generation intervals. Epidemics, (25)

Leonardo S Bastos, Natalia S Paiva, Francisco I Bastos, Daniel A M Villela. (2018). Fast approaches for Bayesian estimation of size of hard-to-reach populations using Network Scale-up. arXiv

Dantas ES, Gurgel-Gonçalves R, Villela DAM, Monteiro FA, Maciel-de-Freitas R. (2018). Should I stay or should I go? Movement of adult Triatoma sordida within the peridomestic area of a typical Brazilian Cerrado rural household. Parasites & vectors, 11(1)

Villela DAM, Garcia GA, Maciel-de-Freitas R. (2017). Novel inference models for estimation of abundance, survivorship and recruitment in mosquito populations using mark-release-recapture data. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 11(6)

de Oliveira S, Villela DAM, Dias FBS, Moreira LA, Maciel de Freitas R. (2017). How does competition among wild type mosquitoes influence the performance of Aedes aegypti and dissemination of Wolbachia pipientis?. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 11(10)

Villela DAM, Bastos LS, DE Carvalho LM, Cruz OG, Gomes MFC, Durovni B, Lemos MC, Saraceni V, Coelho FC, Codeço CT. (2017). Zika in Rio de Janeiro: Assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks. Epidemiology and infection, 145(8)

Lima LRP, Fernandes LEBC, Villela DAM, Morgado MG, Pilotto JH, de Paula VS. (2018). Co-infection of human herpesvirus type 2 (HHV-2) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among pregnant women in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. AIDS care, 30(3)

Claudia Codeço, Daniel Villela, Marcelo F Gomes, Leonardo Bastos, Oswaldo Cruz, Claudio Struchiner, Luis Max Carvalho, Flavio Coelho. (2016). Zika is not a reason for missing the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro: response to the open letter of Dr Attaran and colleagues to Dr Margaret Chan, Director - General, WHO, on the Zika threat to the Olympic and Paralympic Games. Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, 111(6)

Garcia Gde A, Dos Santos LM, Villela DA, Maciel-de-Freitas R. (2016). Using Wolbachia Releases to Estimate Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Population Size and Survival. PloS one, 11(8)

Daniel AM Villela. (2016). Analysis of the vectorial capacity of vector-borne diseases using moment-generating functions. Applied Mathematics and Computation, (290)

Coelho FC, Durovni B, Saraceni V, Lemos C, Codeço CT, Camargo S, de Carvalho LM, Bastos L, Arduini D, Villela DA, Armstrong M. (2016). Higher incidence of Zika in adult women than adult men in Rio de Janeiro suggests a significant contribution of sexual transmission from men to women. International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, (51)

Flávio Codeço Coelho, Betina Durovni, Valeria Saraceni, Cristina Lemos, Claudia Torres Codeço, Sabrina Camargo, Luiz Max Carvalho, Leonardo Bastos, Denise Arduini, Daniel Villela, Margaret Armstrong. (2016). Sexual transmission causes a marked increase in the incidence of Zika in women in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. bioRxiv

Daniel AM Villela. (2016). Imperfect testing of individuals for infectious diseases: Mathematical model and analysis. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, (46)

Izabel C. dos Reis Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Mary H. Hayden, Daniel A. M. Villela, Cynthia C. Lord, Uriel D. Kitron, José Joaquín Carvajal, Daniel C. P. Câmara. (2016). Climate Information for Arbovirus Risk Monitoring: Opportunities and Challenges. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society

Dutra HL, Dos Santos LM, Caragata EP, Silva JB, Villela DA, Maciel-de-Freitas R, Moreira LA. (2015). From lab to field: the influence of urban landscapes on the invasive potential of Wolbachia in Brazilian Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 9(4)

Daniel AM Villela. (2015). An analysis of the vectorial capacity using moment-generating functions. arXiv

Villela DA, Codeço CT, Figueiredo F, Garcia GA, Maciel-de-Freitas R, Struchiner CJ. (2015). A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegypti. PloS one, 10(4)

Luiz Max De Carvalho, Daniel AM Villela, Flavio Codeco Coelho, Leonardo Soares Bastos. (2015). Choosing the weights for the logarithmic pooling of probability distributions. arXiv preprint

Daniel Villela. (2009). Minimizing the average completion time for concurrent grid applications. Journal of Grid Computing, (8)

Daniel Villela, Prashant Pradhan, Dan Rubenstein. (2007). Provisioning servers in the application tier for e-commerce systems. ACM Transactions on Internet Technology (TOIT), 7(1)

Daniel Villela. (2007). Performance Analysis of Updating Mechanisms for Dynamic Content in Peer-to-Peer Networks. Seventh IEEE International Symposium on Cluster Computing and the Grid (CCGrid '07)

D. Villela and D. Rubenstein. (2005). Performance analysis of server sharing collectives for content distribution. IEEE Transactions on Parallel and Distributed Systems, 16(12)

Daniel Villela, Andrew T Campbell, John Vicente. (2001). Virtuosity: Programmable resource management for spawning networks. Computer Networks, 36(1)

Daniel AM Villela, Otto Carlos Muniz Bandeira Duarte. (2001). Improving scalability on reliable multicast communications. Computer Communications, 24(5-6)

John Vicente, Michael Kounavis, Daniel Villela, Michah Lerner, Andrew Campbell. (2000). Programming internet quality of service. Trends in Distributed Systems: Towards a Universal Service Market, (1890)

Andrew T Campbell, Herman G De Meer, Michael E Kounavis, Kazuho Miki, John B Vicente, Daniel Villela. (1999). A survey of programmable networks. ACM SIGCOMM Computer Communication Review, 29(2)

Andrew T Campbell, John Vicente, Daniel A Villela. (1999). Virtuosity: Performing virtual network resource management. 1999 Seventh International Workshop on Quality of Service

Andrew T Campbell, Michael E Kounavis, Daniel A Villela, John B Vicente, Hermann G De Meer, Kazuho Miki, Kalai S Kalaichelvan. (1999). Spawning networks. IEEE Network, 13(4)

Andrew T Campbell, John Vicente, Daniel A Villela. (1999). Managing spawned virtual networks. IFIP International Working Conference on Active Networks, (1653)

A. T. Campbell, H. G. De Meer, M. E. Kounavis, K. Miki, J. Vicente and D. A. Villela. (1999). The genesis kernel: A virtual network operating system for spawning network architectures. 1999 IEEE Second Conference on Open Architectures and Network Programming

D. A. M. Villela and O. C. M. B. Duarte. (1998). A priority scheme applied to scalable reliable multicast communications. IEEE GLOBECOM 1998, (5)

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