Daniel Villela
Daniel A. M. Villela

Department Head




Preferred Pronouns


Personal Academic Website

Research/Topics of Interest

Pathogens/Diseases of Main Interest/Expertise

Countries of Work/Collaboration



Marion G, Hadley L, Isham V, Mollison D, Panovska-Griffiths J, Pellis L, Tomba GS, Scarabel F, Swallow B, Trapman P, Villela D. (2022). Modelling: Understanding pandemics and how to control them. Epidemics, (39)

Valim V, Martins-Filho OA, Gouvea MDPG, Camacho LAB, Villela DAM, de Lima SMB, Azevedo AS, Neto LFP, Domingues CMAS, de Medeiros Junior NF, Moulaz IR, Dias LH, Miyamoto ST, Teixeira-Carvalho A, Mill JG, . (2022). Effectiveness, safety, and immunogenicity of half dose ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 COVID-19 Vaccine: Viana project. Frontiers in immunology, (13)

Villela DAM, Gomes MFDC. (2022). Importance of data availability and timely information for epidemiological surveillance. Cadernos de saude publica, 38(7)

Ayala MJC, Bastos LS, Villela DAM. (2022). On multifactorial drivers for malaria rebound in Brazil: a spatio-temporal analysis. Malaria journal, 21(1)

Basu S, Hone T, Villela D, Saraceni V, Trajman A, Durovni B, Millett C, Rasella D. (2022). Contribution of primary care expansion to Sustainable Development Goal 3 for health: a microsimulation of the 15 largest cities in Brazil. BMJ open, 12(1)

Kretzschmar ME, Ashby B, Fearon E, Overton CE, Panovska-Griffiths J, Pellis L, Quaife M, Rozhnova G, Scarabel F, Stage HB, Swallow B, Thompson RN, Tildesley MJ, Villela D. (2022). Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics. Epidemics, (38)

Swallow B, Birrell P, Blake J, Burgman M, Challenor P, Coffeng LE, Dawid P, De Angelis D, Goldstein M, Hemming V, Marion G, McKinley TJ, Overton CE, Panovska-Griffiths J, Pellis L, Probert W, Shea K, Villela D, Vernon I. (2022). Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling. Epidemics, (38)

Valiati NCM, Villela DAM. (2021). Modelling policy combinations of vaccination and transmission suppression of SARS-CoV-2 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Infectious Disease Modelling

Lima MAN, Villela DAM. (2021). [Sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with time to treatment for colorectal cancer in Brazil, 2006-2015]. Cadernos de saude publica, 37(5)

Guimarães RM, Portela MC, Villela DAM, Correa Matta G, de Freitas CM. (2021). Younger Brazilians hit by COVID-19 - What are the implications?. Lancet Regional Health. Americas

Lana R, Nekkab N, Siqueira AM, Peterka C, Marchesini P, Lacerda M, Mueller I, White M, Villela D. (2021). The top 1%: quantifying the unequal distribution of malaria in Brazil. Malaria journal, 20(1)

Balieiro AAS, Siqueira AM, Melo GC, Monteiro WM, Sampaio VS, Mueller I, Lacerda MVG, Villela DAM. (2021). Malaria as a Public Health Proxy for Chloroquine-Resistance Surveillance: A Spatio-Temporal Study in the Brazilian Amazon. International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(10)

Villela DAM. (2021). Household crowding hampers mitigating the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, (54)

Lana RM, Freitas LP, Codeço CT, Pacheco AG, Carvalho LMF, Villela DAM, Coelho FC, Cruz OG, Niquini RP, Porto VBG, Gava C, Gomes MFDC, Bastos LS. (2021). Identification of priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil. Cadernos de saude publica, 37(10)

Nekkab N, Lana R, Lacerda M, Obadia T, Siqueira A, Monteiro W, Villela D, Mueller I, White M. (2021). Estimated impact of tafenoquine for Plasmodium vivax control and elimination in Brazil: A modelling study. PLoS medicine, 18(4)

Niquini RP, Lana RM, Pacheco AG, Cruz OG, Coelho FC, Carvalho LM, Villela DAM, Gomes MFDC, Bastos LS. (2020). Description and comparison of demographic characteristics and comorbidities in SARI from COVID-19, SARI from influenza, and the Brazilian general population. Cadernos de saude publica, 36(7)

Bastos LS, Niquini RP, Lana RM, Villela DAM, Cruz OG, Coelho FC, Codeço CT, Gomes MFC. (2020). COVID-19 and hospitalizations for SARI in Brazil: a comparison up to the 12th epidemiological week of 2020. Cadernos de saude publica, 36(4)

Flávio C Coelho, Raquel M Lana, Oswaldo G Cruz, Daniel Villela, Leonardo S Bastos, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Jessica T Davis, Alessandro Vespignani, Claudia Codeco, Marcelo FC Gomes. (2020). Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, Morbidity and the burden on the Health Care System. SSRN

Coelho FC, Lana RM, Cruz OG, Villela DAM, Bastos LS, Pastore Y Piontti A, Davis JT, Vespignani A, Codeço CT, Gomes MFC. (2020). Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability. PloS one, 15(9)

Paiva NS, Villela DAM, Bastos LS, Bastos FI. (2020). Women who have undergone abortion in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: application of a Bayesian hierarchical model. Cadernos de saude publica, 36Suppl 1(Suppl 1)

Garcia GA, Hoffmann AA, Maciel-de-Freitas R, Villela DAM. (2020). Aedes aegypti insecticide resistance underlies the success (and failure) of Wolbachia population replacement. Scientific reports, 10(1)

Viana PVS, Paiva NS, Villela DAM, Bastos LS, de Souza Bierrenbach AL, Basta PC. (2020). Factors associated with death in patients with tuberculosis in Brazil: Competing risks analysis. PloS one, 15(10)

Villela DAM. (2020). Discrete time forecasting of epidemics. Infectious Disease Modelling, (5)

Camila P de Jesus, Fernando Dias, Daniel Villela, Rafael Maciel-de-Freitas. (2020). Ovitraps Provide a Reliable Estimate of Wolbachia Frequency during wMelBr Strain Deployment in a Geographically Isolated Aedes aegypti Population. Insects, 11(2)

Ayala MJC, Villela DAM. (2020). Early transmission of sensitive strain slows down emergence of drug resistance in Plasmodium vivax. PLoS computational biology, 16(6)

Claudia Codeco, Oswaldo Cruz, Thais I Riback, Carolin M Degener, Marcelo F Gomes, Daniel Villela, Leonardo Bastos, Sabrina Camargo, Valeria Saraceni, Maria Cristina F Lemos, Flavio C Coelho. (2019). InfoDengue: a nowcasting system for the surveillance of dengue fever transmission. bioRxiv

Viana PVdS, NS Paiva, DAM Villela, LS Bastos, Bierrenbach ALdS, PC Basta. (2019). Factors associated with death in patients with tuberculosis in Brazil: survival analysis with competitive risks. Research Square

Bastos LS, Economou T, Gomes MFC, Villela DAM, Coelho FC, Cruz OG, Stoner O, Bailey T, Codeço CT. (2019). A modelling approach for correcting reporting delays in disease surveillance data. Statistics in medicine, 38(22)

Strugarek M, Dufour L, Vauchelet N, Almeida L, Perthame B, Villela DAM. (2019). Oscillatory regimes in a mosquito population model with larval feedback on egg hatching. Journal of biological dynamics, 13(1)

Garcia GA, Sylvestre G, Aguiar R, da Costa GB, Martins AJ, Lima JBP, Petersen MT, Lourenço-de-Oliveira R, Shadbolt MF, Rašić G, Hoffmann AA, Villela DAM, Dias FBS, Dong Y, O'Neill SL, Moreira LA, Maciel-de-Freitas R. (2019). Matching the genetics of released and local Aedes aegypti populations is critical to assure Wolbachia invasion. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 13(1)

Mario JC Ayala, Daniel AM Villela. (2019). Early transmission of sensitive strain slows down emergence of drug resistance in Plasmodium vivax. bioRxiv

Codeço CT, Villela DAM, Coelho FC. (2018). Estimating the effective reproduction number of dengue considering temperature-dependent generation intervals. Epidemics, (25)

Leonardo S Bastos, Natalia S Paiva, Francisco I Bastos, Daniel A M Villela. (2018). Fast approaches for Bayesian estimation of size of hard-to-reach populations using Network Scale-up. arXiv

Dantas ES, Gurgel-Gonçalves R, Villela DAM, Monteiro FA, Maciel-de-Freitas R. (2018). Should I stay or should I go? Movement of adult Triatoma sordida within the peridomestic area of a typical Brazilian Cerrado rural household. Parasites & vectors, 11(1)

Villela DAM, Bastos LS, DE Carvalho LM, Cruz OG, Gomes MFC, Durovni B, Lemos MC, Saraceni V, Coelho FC, Codeço CT. (2017). Zika in Rio de Janeiro: Assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks. Epidemiology and infection, 145(8)

Lima LRP, Fernandes LEBC, Villela DAM, Morgado MG, Pilotto JH, de Paula VS. (2018). Co-infection of human herpesvirus type 2 (HHV-2) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among pregnant women in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. AIDS care, 30(3)

Villela DAM, Garcia GA, Maciel-de-Freitas R. (2017). Novel inference models for estimation of abundance, survivorship and recruitment in mosquito populations using mark-release-recapture data. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 11(6)

de Oliveira S, Villela DAM, Dias FBS, Moreira LA, Maciel de Freitas R. (2017). How does competition among wild type mosquitoes influence the performance of Aedes aegypti and dissemination of Wolbachia pipientis?. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 11(10)

Flávio Codeço Coelho, Betina Durovni, Valeria Saraceni, Cristina Lemos, Claudia Torres Codeço, Sabrina Camargo, Luiz Max Carvalho, Leonardo Bastos, Denise Arduini, Daniel Villela, Margaret Armstrong. (2016). Sexual transmission causes a marked increase in the incidence of Zika in women in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. bioRxiv

Daniel AM Villela. (2016). Imperfect testing of individuals for infectious diseases: Mathematical model and analysis. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, (46)

Izabel C. dos Reis Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Mary H. Hayden, Daniel A. M. Villela, Cynthia C. Lord, Uriel D. Kitron, José Joaquín Carvajal, Daniel C. P. Câmara. (2016). Climate Information for Arbovirus Risk Monitoring: Opportunities and Challenges. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society

Claudia Codeço, Daniel Villela, Marcelo F Gomes, Leonardo Bastos, Oswaldo Cruz, Claudio Struchiner, Luis Max Carvalho, Flavio Coelho. (2016). Zika is not a reason for missing the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro: response to the open letter of Dr Attaran and colleagues to Dr Margaret Chan, Director - General, WHO, on the Zika threat to the Olympic and Paralympic Games. Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, 111(6)

Garcia Gde A, Dos Santos LM, Villela DA, Maciel-de-Freitas R. (2016). Using Wolbachia Releases to Estimate Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Population Size and Survival. PloS one, 11(8)

Coelho FC, Durovni B, Saraceni V, Lemos C, Codeço CT, Camargo S, de Carvalho LM, Bastos L, Arduini D, Villela DA, Armstrong M. (2016). Higher incidence of Zika in adult women than adult men in Rio de Janeiro suggests a significant contribution of sexual transmission from men to women. International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, (51)

Daniel AM Villela. (2016). Analysis of the vectorial capacity of vector-borne diseases using moment-generating functions. Applied Mathematics and Computation, (290)

Daniel AM Villela. (2015). An analysis of the vectorial capacity using moment-generating functions. arXiv

Villela DA, Codeço CT, Figueiredo F, Garcia GA, Maciel-de-Freitas R, Struchiner CJ. (2015). A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegypti. PloS one, 10(4)

Luiz Max De Carvalho, Daniel AM Villela, Flavio Codeco Coelho, Leonardo Soares Bastos. (2015). Choosing the weights for the logarithmic pooling of probability distributions. arXiv preprint

Dutra HL, Dos Santos LM, Caragata EP, Silva JB, Villela DA, Maciel-de-Freitas R, Moreira LA. (2015). From lab to field: the influence of urban landscapes on the invasive potential of Wolbachia in Brazilian Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 9(4)

Daniel Villela. (2009). Minimizing the average completion time for concurrent grid applications. Journal of Grid Computing, (8)

Daniel Villela. (2007). Performance Analysis of Updating Mechanisms for Dynamic Content in Peer-to-Peer Networks. Seventh IEEE International Symposium on Cluster Computing and the Grid (CCGrid '07)

Daniel Villela, Prashant Pradhan, Dan Rubenstein. (2007). Provisioning servers in the application tier for e-commerce systems. ACM Transactions on Internet Technology (TOIT), 7(1)

D. Villela and D. Rubenstein. (2005). Performance analysis of server sharing collectives for content distribution. IEEE Transactions on Parallel and Distributed Systems, 16(12)

Daniel Villela, Dan Rubenstein. (2003). Performance analysis of server sharing collectives for content distribution. International Workshop on Quality of Service

Daniel AM Villela, Otto Carlos Muniz Bandeira Duarte. (2001). Improving scalability on reliable multicast communications. Computer Communications, 24(5-6)

Daniel Villela, Andrew T Campbell, John Vicente. (2001). Virtuosity: Programmable resource management for spawning networks. Computer Networks, 36(1)

John Vicente, Michael Kounavis, Daniel Villela, Michah Lerner, Andrew Campbell. (2000). Programming internet quality of service. Trends in Distributed Systems: Towards a Universal Service Market, (1890)

Andrew T Campbell, John Vicente, Daniel A Villela. (1999). Virtuosity: Performing virtual network resource management. 1999 Seventh International Workshop on Quality of Service

Andrew T Campbell, John Vicente, Daniel A Villela. (1999). Managing spawned virtual networks. IFIP International Working Conference on Active Networks, (1653)

A. T. Campbell, H. G. De Meer, M. E. Kounavis, K. Miki, J. Vicente and D. A. Villela. (1999). The genesis kernel: A virtual network operating system for spawning network architectures. 1999 IEEE Second Conference on Open Architectures and Network Programming

Andrew T Campbell, Michael E Kounavis, Daniel A Villela, John B Vicente, Hermann G De Meer, Kazuho Miki, Kalai S Kalaichelvan. (1999). Spawning networks. IEEE Network, 13(4)

Andrew T Campbell, Herman G De Meer, Michael E Kounavis, Kazuho Miki, John B Vicente, Daniel Villela. (1999). A survey of programmable networks. ACM SIGCOMM Computer Communication Review, 29(2)

D. A. M. Villela and O. C. M. B. Duarte. (1998). A priority scheme applied to scalable reliable multicast communications. IEEE GLOBECOM 1998, (5)

If you’d like to update your profile, please email modifications to

This site is registered on as a development site.