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Erin Mordecai

Assistant Professor

Education

Affiliations

Bio

My research focuses on the ecology of infectious disease. I am interested in how climate, species interactions, and global change drive infectious disease dynamics in humans and natural ecosystems. This research combines mathematical modeling and empirical work. I finished my PhD in 2012 at the University of California Santa Barbara in Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology. I then completed a 2-year NSF postdoctoral research fellowship in the Intersection of Biology and Mathematical and Physical Sciences and Engineering at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and North Carolina State University. I have been at Stanford since January 2015.

Preferred Pronouns

Personal Academic Website

Research/Topics of Interest

Pathogens/Diseases of Main Interest/Expertise

COVID-19

Countries of Work/Collaboration

Projects

Papers

Kirk D, O'Connor MI, Mordecai EA. (2022). Scaling effects of temperature on parasitism from individuals to populations. The Journal of animal ecology

Cromar KR, Anenberg SC, Balmes JR, Fawcett AA, Ghazipura M, Gohlke JM, Hashizume M, Howard P, Lavigne E, Levy K, Madrigano J, Martinich JA, Mordecai EA, Rice MB, Saha S, Scovronick NC, Sekercioglu F, Svendsen ER, Zaitchik BF, Ewart G. (2022). Global Health Impacts for Economic Models of Climate Change: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Annals of the American Thoracic Society

Couper LI, Mordecai EA. (2022). Ecological drivers of dog heartworm transmission in California. Parasites & vectors, 15(1)

Seetah K, Moots H, Pickel D, Van Cant M, Cianciosi A, Mordecai E, Cullen M, Maldonado Y. (2022). Global Health Needs Modernized Containment Strategies to Prepare for the Next Pandemic. Frontiers in public health, (10)

Kain MP, Skinner EB, Athni TS, Ramirez AL, Mordecai EA, van den Hurk AF. (2022). Not all mosquitoes are created equal: A synthesis of vector competence experiments reinforces virus associations of Australian mosquitoes. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 16(10)

Athni TS, Shocket MS, Couper LI, Nova N, Caldwell IR, Caldwell JM, Childress JN, Childs ML, De Leo GA, Kirk DG, MacDonald AJ, Olivarius K, Pickel DG, Roberts SO, Winokur OC, Young HS, Cheng J, Grant EA, Kurzner PM, Kyaw S, Lin BJ, Lopez RC, Massihpour DS, Olsen EC, Roache M, Ruiz A, Schultz EA, Shafat M, Spencer RL, Bharti N, Mordecai EA. (2021). The influence of vector-borne disease on human history: socio-ecological mechanisms. Ecology letters

MacDonald AJ, Mordecai EA. (2021). Response to Valle and Zorello Laporta: Clarifying the Use of Instrumental Variable Methods to Understand the Effects of Environmental Change on Infectious Disease Transmission. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene

Harris MJ, Tessier-Lavigne E, Mordecai EA. (2021). The interplay of policy, behavior, and socioeconomic conditions in early COVID-19 epidemiology in Georgia. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Childs ML, Kain MP, Harris MJ, Kirk D, Couper L, Nova N, Delwel I, Ritchie J, Becker AD, Mordecai EA. (2021). The impact of long-term non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and control: the value and limitations of early models. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 288(1957)

Caldwell JM, LaBeaud AD, Lambin EF, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Ndenga BA, Mutuku FM, Krystosik AR, Ayala EB, Anyamba A, Borbor-Cordova MJ, Damoah R, Grossi-Soyster EN, Heras FH, Ngugi HN, Ryan SJ, Shah MM, Sippy R, Mordecai EA. (2021). Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents. Nature communications, 12(1)

Kain MP, Skinner EB, van den Hurk AF, McCallum H, Mordecai EA. (2021). Physiology and ecology combine to determine host andvector importance for Ross River virus. eLife, (10)

Song C, Uricchio LH, Mordecai EA, Saavedra S. (2021). Understanding the emergence of contingent and deterministic exclusion in multispecies communities. Ecology letters

Couper LI, Farner JE, Caldwell JM, Childs ML, Harris MJ, Kirk DG, Nova N, Shocket M, Skinner EB, Uricchio LH, Exposito-Alonso M, Mordecai EA. (2021). How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?. eLife, (10)

Martin JL, Lippi CA, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Ayala EB, Mordecai EA, Sippy R, Heras FH, Blackburn JK, Ryan SJ. (2021). Household and climate factors influence Aedes aegypti presence in the arid city of Huaquillas, Ecuador. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 15(11)

Glidden CK, Nova N, Kain MP, Lagerstrom KM, Skinner EB, Mandle L, Sokolow SH, Plowright RK, Dirzo R, De Leo GA, Mordecai EA. (2021). Human-mediated impacts on biodiversity and the consequences for zoonotic disease spillover. Current biology : CB, 31(19)

Kendig AE, Spear ER, Daws SC, Flory SL, Mordecai EA. (2021). Native perennial and non-native annual grasses shape pathogen community composition and disease severity in a California grassland. The Journal of ecology, 109(2)

Ngonghala CN, Ryan SJ, Tesla B, Demakovsky LR, Mordecai EA, Murdock CC, Bonds MH. (2021). Effects of changes in temperature on Zika dynamics and control. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 18(178)

Kain MP, Childs ML, Becker AD, Mordecai EA. (2020). Chopping the tail: How preventing superspreading can help to maintain COVID-19 control. Epidemics, (34)

Shocket MS, Verwillow AB, Numazu MG, Slamani H, Cohen JM, El Moustaid F, Rohr J, Johnson LR, Mordecai EA. (2020). Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23°C and 26°C. eLife, (9)

Ryan SJ, Carlson CJ, Tesla B, Bonds MH, Ngonghala CN, Mordecai EA, Johnson LR, Murdock CC. (2021). Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050. Global change biology, 27(1)

Nova N, Deyle ER, Shocket MS, MacDonald AJ, Childs ML, Rypdal M, Sugihara G, Mordecai EA. (2020). Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics. Ecology letters

Childs ML, Kain MP, Kirk D, Harris M, Couper L, Nova N, Delwel I, Ritchie J, Mordecai EA. (2020). The impact of long-term non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and control. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Couper LI, MacDonald AJ, Mordecai EA. (2020). Impact of prior and projected climate change on US Lyme disease incidence. Global change biology

Kain MP, Childs ML, Becker AD, Mordecai EA. (2020). Chopping the tail: how preventing superspreading can help to maintain COVID-19 control. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Cator LJ, Johnson LR, Mordecai EA, Moustaid FE, Smallwood TRC, LaDeau SL, Johansson MA, Hudson PJ, Boots M, Thomas MB, Power AG, Pawar S. (2020). The Role of Vector Trait Variation in Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics. Frontiers in ecology and evolution, (8)

Farner JE, Spear ER, Mordecai EA. (2020). Habitat type and interannual variation shape unique fungal pathogen communities on a California native bunchgrass. Fungal ecology, (48)

Mordecai EA, Ryan SJ, Caldwell JM, Shah MM, LaBeaud AD. (2020). Climate change could shift disease burden from malaria to arboviruses in Africa. The Lancet. Planetary health, 4(9)

Harris M, Caldwell JM, Mordecai EA. (2019). Climate drives spatial variation in Zika epidemics in Latin America. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 286(1909)

MacDonald AJ, Mordecai EA. (2019). Amazon deforestation drives malaria transmission, and malaria burden reduces forest clearing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(44)

Becker DJ, Washburne AD, Faust CL, Mordecai EA, Plowright RK. (2019). The problem of scale in the prediction and management of pathogen spillover. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 374(1782)

Childs ML, Nova N, Colvin J, Mordecai EA. (2019). Mosquito and primate ecology predict human risk of yellow fever virus spillover in Brazil. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 374(1782)

Becker DJ, Washburne AD, Faust CL, Pulliam JRC, Mordecai EA, Lloyd-Smith JO, Plowright RK. (2019). Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 374(1782)

Smith JR, Letten AD, Ke PJ, Anderson CB, Hendershot JN, Dhami MK, Dlott GA, Grainger TN, Howard ME, Morrison BML, Routh D, Juan PAS, Mooney HA, Mordecai EA, Crowther TW, Daily GC. (2019). Author Correction: A global test of ecoregions. Nature ecology & evolution, 3(4)

Johansson MA, Apfeldorf KM, Dobson S, Devita J, Buczak AL, Baugher B, Moniz LJ, Bagley T, Babin SM, Guven E, Yamana TK, Shaman J, Moschou T, Lothian N, Lane A, Osborne G, Jiang G, Brooks LC, Farrow DC, Hyun S, Tibshirani RJ, Rosenfeld R, Lessler J, Reich NG, Cummings DAT, Lauer SA, Moore SM, Clapham HE, Lowe R, Bailey TC, García-Díez M, Carvalho MS, Rodó X, Sardar T, Paul R, Ray EL, Sakrejda K, Brown AC, Meng X, Osoba O, Vardavas R, Manheim D, Moore M, Rao DM, Porco TC, Ackley S, Liu F, Worden L, Convertino M, Liu Y, Reddy A, Ortiz E, Rivero J, Brito H, Juarrero A, Johnson LR, Gramacy RB, Cohen JM, Mordecai EA, Murdock CC, Rohr JR, Ryan SJ, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Weikel DP, Jutla A, Khan R, Poultney M, Colwell RR, Rivera-García B, Barker CM, Bell JE, Biggerstaff M, Swerdlow D, Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L, Forshey BM, Trtanj J, Asher J, Clay M, Margolis HS, Hebbeler AM, George D, Chretien JP. (2019). An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(48)

Rohr JR, Civitello DJ, Halliday FW, Hudson PJ, Lafferty KD, Wood CL, Mordecai EA. (2020). Towards common ground in the biodiversity-disease debate. Nature ecology & evolution, 4(1)

Mordecai EA, Caldwell JM, Grossman MK, Lippi CA, Johnson LR, Neira M, Rohr JR, Ryan SJ, Savage V, Shocket MS, Sippy R, Stewart Ibarra AM, Thomas MB, Villena O. (2019). Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease. Ecology letters, 22(10)

Shah MM, Krystosik AR, Ndenga BA, Mutuku FM, Caldwell JM, Otuka V, Chebii PK, Maina PW, Jembe Z, Ronga C, Bisanzio D, Anyamba A, Damoah R, Ripp K, Jagannathan P, Mordecai EA, LaBeaud AD. (2019). Malaria smear positivity among Kenyan children peaks at intermediate temperatures as predicted by ecological models. Parasites & vectors, 12(1)

Uricchio LH, Daws SC, Spear ER, Mordecai EA. (2019). Priority Effects and Nonhierarchical Competition Shape Species Composition in a Complex Grassland Community. The American naturalist, 193(2)

Ryan SJ, Carlson CJ, Mordecai EA, Johnson LR. (2019). Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 13(3)

Shocket MS, Ryan SJ, Mordecai EA. (2018). Temperature explains broad patterns of Ross River virus transmission. eLife, (7)

Tesla B, Demakovsky LR, Mordecai EA, Ryan SJ, Bonds MH, Ngonghala CN, Brindley MA, Murdock CC. (2018). Temperature drives Zika virus transmission: evidence from empirical and mathematical models. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 285(1884)

Smith JR, Letten AD, Ke PJ, Anderson CB, Hendershot JN, Dhami MK, Dlott GA, Grainger TN, Howard ME, Morrison BML, Routh D, San Juan PA, Mooney HA, Mordecai EA, Crowther TW, Daily GC. (2018). A global test of ecoregions. Nature ecology & evolution, 2(12)

Spear ER, Mordecai EA. (2018). Foliar pathogens are unlikely to stabilize coexistence of competing species in a California grassland. Ecology, 99(10)

Huber JH, Childs ML, Caldwell JM, Mordecai EA. (2018). Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 12(5)

Tesla B, Demakovsky LR, Packiam HS, Mordecai EA, Rodríguez AD, Bonds MH, Brindley MA, Murdock CC. (2018). Estimating the effects of variation in viremia on mosquito susceptibility, infectiousness, and R0 of Zika in Aedes aegypti. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 12(8)

Ali S, Gugliemini O, Harber S, Harrison A, Houle L, Ivory J, Kersten S, Khan R, Kim J, LeBoa C, Nez-Whitfield E, O'Marr J, Rothenberg E, Segnitz RM, Sila S, Verwillow A, Vogt M, Yang A, Mordecai EA. (2017). Environmental and Social Change Drive the Explosive Emergence of Zika Virus in the Americas. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 11(2)

Mordecai EA, Cohen JM, Evans MV, Gudapati P, Johnson LR, Lippi CA, Miazgowicz K, Murdock CC, Rohr JR, Ryan SJ, Savage V, Shocket MS, Stewart Ibarra A, Thomas MB, Weikel DP. (2017). Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 11(4)

Napier JD, Mordecai EA, Heckman RW. (2016). The role of drought- and disturbance-mediated competition in shaping community responses to varied environments. Oecologia, 181(2)

Lafferty KD, Mordecai EA. (2016). The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world. F1000Research, (5)

Taylor RA, Mordecai EA, Gilligan CA, Rohr JR, Johnson LR. (2016). Mathematical models are a powerful method to understand and control the spread of Huanglongbing. PeerJ, (4)

Mordecai EA, Gross K, Mitchell CE. (2016). Within-Host Niche Differences and Fitness Trade-offs Promote Coexistence of Plant Viruses. The American naturalist, 187(1)

Mordecai EA, Jaramillo AG, Ashford JE, Hechinger RF, Lafferty KD. (2016). The role of competition--colonization tradeoffs and spatial heterogeneity in promoting trematode coexistence. Ecology, 97(6)

Mordecai EA, Jaramillo AG, Ashford JE, Hechinger RF, Lafferty KD. (2016). The role of competition - colonization tradeoffs and spatial heterogeneity in promoting trematode coexistence. Ecology, 97(6)

Mordecai EA, Hindenlang M, Mitchell CE. (2015). Differential Impacts of Virus Diversity on Biomass Production of a Native and an Exotic Grass Host. PloS one, 10(7)

Ryan SJ, McNally A, Johnson LR, Mordecai EA, Ben-Horin T, Paaijmans K, Lafferty KD. (2015). Mapping Physiological Suitability Limits for Malaria in Africa Under Climate Change. Vector borne and zoonotic diseases (Larchmont, N.Y.), 15(12)

Seabloom EW, Borer ET, Gross K, Kendig AE, Lacroix C, Mitchell CE, Mordecai EA, Power AG. (2015). The community ecology of pathogens: coinfection, coexistence and community composition. Ecology letters, 18(4)

Johnson LR, Ben-Horin T, Lafferty KD, McNally A, Mordecai E, Paaijmans KP, Pawar S, Ryan SJ. (2015). Understanding uncertainty in temperature effects on vector-borne disease: a Bayesian approach. Ecology, 96(1)

Mordecai EA, Molinari NA, Stahlheber KA, Gross K, D'Antonio C. (2015). Controls over native perennial grass exclusion and persistence in California grasslands invaded by annuals. Ecology, 96(10)

Mordecai EA. (2013). Consequences of pathogen spillover for cheatgrass-invaded grasslands: coexistence, competitive exclusion, or priority effects. The American naturalist, 181(6)

Mordecai EA. (2013). Despite spillover, a shared pathogen promotes native plant persistence in a cheatgrass-invaded grassland. Ecology, 94(12)

Mordecai EA. (2012). Soil moisture and fungi affect seed survival in California grassland annual plants. PloS one, 7(6)

Mordecai EA, Paaijmans KP, Johnson LR, Balzer C, Ben-Horin T, de Moor E, McNally A, Pawar S, Ryan SJ, Smith TC, Lafferty KD. (2013). Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted. Ecology letters, 16(1)

Viola DV, Mordecai EA, Jaramillo AG, Sistla SA, Albertson LK, Gosnell JS, Cardinale BJ, Levine JM. (2010). Competition-defense tradeoffs and the maintenance of plant diversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107(40)

Lafferty KD, Allesina S, Arim M, Briggs CJ, De Leo G, Dobson AP, Dunne JA, Johnson PT, Kuris AM, Marcogliese DJ, Martinez ND, Memmott J, Marquet PA, McLaughlin JP, Mordecai EA, Pascual M, Poulin R, Thieltges DW. (2008). Parasites in food webs: the ultimate missing links. Ecology letters, 11(6)

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