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Guido España

Research Assistant Professor of Biological Sciences

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Cramer EY, Ray EL, Lopez VK, Bracher J, Brennen A, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, Gneiting T, House KH, Huang Y, Jayawardena D, Kanji AH, Khandelwal A, Le K, Mühlemann A, Niemi J, Shah A, Stark A, Wang Y, Wattanachit N, Zorn MW, Gu Y, Jain S, Bannur N, Deva A, Kulkarni M, Merugu S, Raval A, Shingi S, Tiwari A, White J, Abernethy NF, Woody S, Dahan M, Fox S, Gaither K, Lachmann M, Meyers LA, Scott JG, Tec M, Srivastava A, George GE, Cegan JC, Dettwiller ID, England WP, Farthing MW, Hunter RH, Lafferty B, Linkov I, Mayo ML, Parno MD, Rowland MA, Trump BD, Zhang-James Y, Chen S, Faraone SV, Hess J, Morley CP, Salekin A, Wang D, Corsetti SM, Baer TM, Eisenberg MC, Falb K, Huang Y, Martin ET, McCauley E, Myers RL, Schwarz T, Sheldon D, Gibson GC, Yu R, Gao L, Ma Y, Wu D, Yan X, Jin X, Wang YX, Chen Y, Guo L, Zhao Y, Gu Q, Chen J, Wang L, Xu P, Zhang W, Zou D, Biegel H, Lega J, McConnell S, Nagraj VP, Guertin SL, Hulme-Lowe C, Turner SD, Shi Y, Ban X, Walraven R, Hong QJ, Kong S, van de Walle A, Turtle JA, Ben-Nun M, Riley S, Riley P, Koyluoglu U, DesRoches D, Forli P, Hamory B, Kyriakides C, Leis H, Milliken J, Moloney M, Morgan J, Nirgudkar N, Ozcan G, Piwonka N, Ravi M, Schrader C, Shakhnovich E, Siegel D, Spatz R, Stiefeling C, Wilkinson B, Wong A, Cavany S, España G, Moore S, Oidtman R, Perkins A, Kraus D, Kraus A, Gao Z, Bian J, Cao W, Lavista Ferres J, Li C, Liu TY, Xie X, Zhang S, Zheng S, Vespignani A, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastore Y Piontti A, Xiong X, Zheng A, Baek J, Farias V, Georgescu A, Levi R, Sinha D, Wilde J, Perakis G, Bennouna MA, Nze-Ndong D, Singhvi D, Spantidakis I, Thayaparan L, Tsiourvas A, Sarker A, Jadbabaie A, Shah D, Della Penna N, Celi LA, Sundar S, Wolfinger R, Osthus D, Castro L, Fairchild G, Michaud I, Karlen D, Kinsey M, Mullany LC, Rainwater-Lovett K, Shin L, Tallaksen K, Wilson S, Lee EC, Dent J, Grantz KH, Hill AL, Kaminsky J, Kaminsky K, Keegan LT, Lauer SA, Lemaitre JC, Lessler J, Meredith HR, Perez-Saez J, Shah S, Smith CP, Truelove SA, Wills J, Marshall M, Gardner L, Nixon K, Burant JC, Wang L, Gao L, Gu Z, Kim M, Li X, Wang G, Wang Y, Yu S, Reiner RC, Barber R, Gakidou E, Hay SI, Lim S, Murray C, Pigott D, Gurung HL, Baccam P, Stage SA, Suchoski BT, Prakash BA, Adhikari B, Cui J, Rodríguez A, Tabassum A, Xie J, Keskinocak P, Asplund J, Baxter A, Oruc BE, Serban N, Arik SO, Dusenberry M, Epshteyn A, Kanal E, Le LT, Li CL, Pfister T, Sava D, Sinha R, Tsai T, Yoder N, Yoon J, Zhang L, Abbott S, Bosse NI, Funk S, Hellewell J, Meakin SR, Sherratt K, Zhou M, Kalantari R, Yamana TK, Pei S, Shaman J, Li ML, Bertsimas D, Skali Lami O, Soni S, Tazi Bouardi H, Ayer T, Adee M, Chhatwal J, Dalgic OO, Ladd MA, Linas BP, Mueller P, Xiao J, Wang Y, Wang Q, Xie S, Zeng D, Green A, Bien J, Brooks L, Hu AJ, Jahja M, McDonald D, Narasimhan B, Politsch C, Rajanala S, Rumack A, Simon N, Tibshirani RJ, Tibshirani R, Ventura V, Wasserman L, O'Dea EB, Drake JM, Pagano R, Tran QT, Ho LST, Huynh H, Walker JW, Slayton RB, Johansson MA, Biggerstaff M, Reich NG. (2022). Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(15)

España G, Perkins TA, Pollett SD, Smith ME, Moore SM, Kwon PO, Hall TL, Beagle MH Jr., Murray CK, Hakre S, Peel SA, Modjarrad K, Scott PT. (2022). Prioritizing interventions for preventing COVID-19 outbreaks in military basic training. PLoS computational biology, 18(10)

Diaz H, España G, Castañeda N, Rodriguez L, De la Hoz-Restrepo F. (2021). Dynamical characteristics of Covid-19 epidemic: Estimation from Colombia's case. International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases

España G, Leidner AJ, Waterman SH, Perkins TA. (2021). Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Puerto Rico. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 15(7)

Huber JH, Koepfli C, España G, Nekkab N, White MT, Alex Perkins T. (2021). How radical is radical cure? Site-specific biases in clinical trials underestimate the effect of radical cure on Plasmodium vivax hypnozoites. Malaria journal, 20(1)

España G, Cavany S, Oidtman R, Barbera C, Costello A, Lerch A, Poterek M, Tran Q, Wieler A, Moore S, Perkins TA. (2021). Impacts of K-12 school reopening on the COVID-19 epidemic in Indiana, USA. Epidemics, (37)

Brito AF, Machado LC, Oidtman RJ, Siconelli MJL, Tran QM, Fauver JR, Carvalho RDO, Dezordi FZ, Pereira MR, de Castro-Jorge LA, Minto ECM, Passos LMR, Kalinich CC, Petrone ME, Allen E, España GC, Huang AT, Cummings DAT, Baele G, Franca RFO, da Fonseca BAL, Perkins TA, Wallau GL, Grubaugh ND. (2021). Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil. Nature communications, 12(1)

Oidtman RJ, Omodei E, Kraemer MUG, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Cruz-Rivera E, Misnaza-Castrillón S, Cifuentes MP, Rincon LE, Cañon V, Alarcon P, España G, Huber JH, Hill SC, Barker CM, Johansson MA, Manore CA, Reiner RC Jr., Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Siraj AS, Frias-Martinez E, García-Herranz M, Perkins TA. (2021). Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease. Nature communications, 12(1)

Cavany SM, España G, Vazquez-Prokopec GM, Scott TW, Perkins TA. (2021). Pandemic-associated mobility restrictions could cause increases in dengue virus transmission. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 15(8)

Oidtman RJ, España G, Perkins TA. (2021). Co-circulation and misdiagnosis led to underestimation of the 2015-2017 Zika epidemic in the Americas. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 15(3)

Cavany SM, España G, Lloyd AL, Waller LA, Kitron U, Astete H, Elson WH, Vazquez-Prokopec GM, Scott TW, Morrison AC, Reiner RC Jr., Perkins TA. (2020). Optimizing the deployment of ultra-low volume and indoor residual spraying for dengue outbreak response. PLoS computational biology, 16(4)

Siraj AS, Sorichetta A, España G, Tatem AJ, Perkins TA. (2020). Modeling human migration across spatial scales in Colombia. PloS one, 15(5)

Shea K, Borchering RK, Probert WJM, Howerton E, Bogich TL, Li S, Van Panhuis WG, Viboud C, Aguas R, Belov A, Bhargava SH, Cavany S, Chang JC, Chen C, Chen J, Chen S, Chen Y, Childs LM, Chow CC, Crooker I, Del Valle SY, España G, Fairchild G, Gerkin RC, Germann TC, Gu Q, Guan X, Guo L, Hart GR, Hladish TJ, Hupert N, Janies D, Kerr CC, Klein DJ, Klein E, Lin G, Manore C, Meyers LA, Mittler J, Mu K, Núñez RC, Oidtman R, Pasco R, Piontti APY, Paul R, Pearson CAB, Perdomo DR, Perkins TA, Pierce K, Pillai AN, Rael RC, Rosenfeld K, Ross CW, Spencer JA, Stoltzfus AB, Toh KB, Vattikuti S, Vespignani A, Wang L, White L, Xu P, Yang Y, Yogurtcu ON, Zhang W, Zhao Y, Zou D, Ferrari M, Pannell D, Tildesley M, Seifarth J, Johnson E, Biggerstaff M, Johansson M, Slayton RB, Levander J, Stazer J, Salerno J, Runge MC. (2020). COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Perkins TA, España G. (2020). Optimal Control of the COVID-19 Pandemic with Non-pharmaceutical Interventions. Bulletin of mathematical biology, 82(9)

España G, Hogea C, Guignard A, Ten Bosch QA, Morrison AC, Smith DL, Scott TW, Schmidt A, Perkins TA. (2019). Biased efficacy estimates in phase-III dengue vaccine trials due to heterogeneous exposure and differential detectability of primary infections across trial arms. PLoS One, 14(1)

Perkins TA, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Manore C, Siraj AS, España G, Barker CM, Johansson MA, Reiner RC Jr.. (2019). Heterogeneous local dynamics revealed by classification analysis of spatially disaggregated time series data. Epidemics, (29)

España G, Yao Y, Anderson KB, Fitzpatrick MC, Smith DL, Morrison AC, Wilder-Smith A, Scott TW, Perkins TA. (2019). Model-based assessment of public health impact and cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination following screening for prior exposure. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 13(7)

Perkins TA, Reiner RC Jr., España G, Ten Bosch QA, Verma A, Liebman KA, Paz-Soldan VA, Elder JP, Morrison AC, Stoddard ST, Kitron U, Vazquez-Prokopec GM, Scott TW, Smith DL. (2019). An Agent-Based Model of Dengue Virus Transmission Shows How Uncertainty About Breakthrough Infections Influences Vaccination Impact Projections. PLoS computational biology, 15(3)

Moore SM, Ten Bosch QA, Siraj AS, Soda KJ, España G, Campo A, Gómez S, Salas D, Raybaud B, Wenger E, Welkhoff P, Perkins TA. (2018). Local and regional dynamics of chikungunya virus transmission in Colombia: the role of mismatched spatial heterogeneity. BMC medicine, 16(1)

Siraj AS, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Barker CM, Tejedor-Garavito N, Harding D, Lorton C, Lukacevic D, Oates G, Espana G, Kraemer MUG, Manore C, Johansson MA, Tatem AJ, Reiner RC, Perkins TA. (2018). Spatiotemporal incidence of Zika and associated environmental drivers for the 2015-2016 epidemic in Colombia. Scientific data, (5)

España G, Grefenstette J, Perkins A, Torres C, Campo Carey A, Diaz H, de la Hoz F, Burke DS, van Panhuis WG. (2018). Exploring scenarios of chikungunya mitigation with a data-driven agent-based model of the 2014-2016 outbreak in Colombia. Scientific reports, 8(1)

Oidtman RJ, Christofferson RC, Ten Bosch QA, Espana G, Kraemer MU, Tatem A, Barker CM, Perkins TA. (2016). Pokémon Go and Exposure to Mosquito-Borne Diseases: How Not to Catch 'Em All. PLoS currents, (8)

Flasche S, Jit M, Rodríguez-Barraquer I, Coudeville L, Recker M, Koelle K, Milne G, Hladish TJ, Perkins TA, Cummings DA, Dorigatti I, Laydon DJ, España G, Kelso J, Longini I, Lourenco J, Pearson CA, Reiner RC, Mier-Y-Terán-Romero L, Vannice K, Ferguson N. (2016). The Long-Term Safety, Public Health Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination with a Recombinant, Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine (Dengvaxia): A Model Comparison Study. PLoS medicine, 13(11)

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