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John Drake
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Distingued Research Professor

Education

Affiliations

Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia
Drake Lab, Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia
Center for Inference & Dynamics of Infectious Disease, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center

Projects

Papers

Bock SL, Lowers RH, Rainwater TR, Stolen E, Drake JM, Wilkinson PM, Weiss S, Back B, Guillette L Jr., Parrott BB. (2020). Spatial and temporal variation in nest temperatures forecasts sex ratio skews in a crocodilian with environmental sex determination. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 287(1926)

Han BA, O'Regan SM, Paul Schmidt J, Drake JM. (2020). Integrating data mining and transmission theory in the ecology of infectious diseases. Ecology letters

Brett T, Ajelli M, Liu QH, Krauland MG, Grefenstette JJ, van Panhuis WG, Vespignani A, Drake JM, Rohani P. (2020). Detecting critical slowing down in high-dimensional epidemiological systems. PLoS computational biology, 16(3)

Evans MV, Garchitorena A, Rakotonanahary RJL, Drake JM, Andriamihaja B, Rajaonarifara E, Ngonghala CN, Roche B, Bonds MH, Rakotonirina J. (2020). Reconciling model predictions with low reported cases of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: insights from Madagascar. Global health action, 13(1)

Lodge Evans K, Schatz Annakate M, Drake John M. (2020). Protective Population Behavior Change in Outbreaks of Emerging Infectious Disease

Drake J, Rohani P, Dahlin K, Handel A. (2020). Five approaches to the suppression of SARS-CoV-2 without intensive social distancing. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Walker JW, Kittur N, Binder S, Castleman JD, Drake JM, Campbell CH, King CH, Colley DG. (2020). Environmental Predictors of Schistosomiasis Persistent Hotspots following Mass Treatment with Praziquantel. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 102(2)

Chen S, O'Dea EB, Drake JM, Epureanu BI. (2019). Eigenvalues of the covariance matrix as early warning signals for critical transitions in ecological systems. Scientific reports, 9(1)

Schmidt JP, Maher S, Drake JM, Huang T, Farrell MJ, Han BA. (2019). Ecological indicators of mammal exposure to Ebolavirus. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 374(1782)

Drake JM, Brett TS, Chen S, Epureanu BI, Ferrari MJ, Marty É, Miller PB, O'Dea EB, O'Regan SM, Park AW, Rohani P. (2019). The statistics of epidemic transitions. PLoS computational biology, 15(5)

Kramer AM, Teitelbaum CS, Griffin A, Drake JM. (2019). Multiscale model of regional population decline in little brown bats due to white-nose syndrome. Ecology and evolution, 9(15)

Kaul RB, Evans MV, Murdock CC, Drake JM. (2018). Spatio-temporal spillover risk of yellow fever in Brazil. Parasites & vectors, 11(1)

Evans MV, Murdock CC, Drake JM. (2018). Anticipating Emerging Mosquito-borne Flaviviruses in the USA: What Comes after Zika?. Trends in parasitology, 34(7)

Evans MV, Shiau JC, Solano N, Brindley MA, Drake JM, Murdock CC. (2018). Carry-over effects of urban larval environments on the transmission potential of dengue-2 virus. Parasites & vectors, 11(1)

Walker JW, Han BA, Ott IM, Drake JM. (2018). Transmissibility of emerging viral zoonoses. PLoS One, 13(11)

Fisher MA, Vinson JE, Gittleman JL, Drake JM. (2018). The description and number of undiscovered mammal species. Ecology and evolution, 8(7)

Laber EB, Meyer NJ, Reich BJ, Pacifici K, Collazo JA, Drake JM. (2018). Optimal treatment allocations in space and time for on-line control of an emerging infectious disease. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics, 67(4)

Dallas TA, Krkošek M, Drake JM. (2018). Experimental evidence of a pathogen invasion threshold. Royal Society open science, 5(1)

O'Dea EB, Park AW, Drake JM. (2018). Estimating the distance to an epidemic threshold. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 15(143)

Brett TS, O'Dea EB, Marty É, Miller PB, Park AW, Drake JM, Rohani P. (2018). Anticipating epidemic transitions with imperfect data. PLoS computational biology, 14(6)

Dallas T, Huang S, Nunn C, Park AW, Drake JM. (2017). Estimating parasite host range. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 284(1861)

Berec L, Kramer AM, Bernhauerová V, Drake JM. (2018). Density-dependent selection on mate search and evolution of Allee effects. The Journal of animal ecology, 87(1)

Evans MV, Dallas TA, Han BA, Murdock CC, Drake JM. (2017). Data-driven identification of potential Zika virus vectors. Elife, (6)

Drake JM, Hay SI. (2017). Monitoring the Path to the Elimination of Infectious Diseases. Tropical medicine and infectious disease, 2(3)

Schmidt JP, Park AW, Kramer AM, Han BA, Alexander LW, Drake JM. (2017). Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola Virus Spillover. Emerging infectious diseases, 23(3)

Kramer AM, Berec L, Drake JM. (2018). Editorial: Allee effects in ecology and evolution. The Journal of animal ecology, 87(1)

Wachsmuth LP, Runyon CR, Drake JM, Dolan EL. Do Biology Students Really Hate Math? Empirical Insights into Undergraduate Life Science Majors' Emotions about Mathematics. CBE life sciences education, 16(3)

Noori N, Drake JM, Rohani P. (2017). Comparative epidemiology of poliovirus transmission. Scientific reports, 7(1)

Miller PB, O'Dea EB, Rohani P, Drake JM. (2017). Forecasting infectious disease emergence subject to seasonal forcing. Theoretical biology & medical modelling, 14(1)

Dallas T, Park AW, Drake JM. (2017). Predicting cryptic links in host-parasite networks. PLoS computational biology, 13(5)

Brett TS, Drake JM, Rohani P. (2017). Anticipating the emergence of infectious diseases. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 14(132)

Schatz AM, Kramer AM, Drake JM. (2017). Accuracy of climate-based forecasts of pathogen spread. Royal Society open science, 4(3)

Stephens PR, Altizer S, Smith KF, Alonso Aguirre A, Brown JH, Budischak SA, Byers JE, Dallas TA, Jonathan Davies T, Drake JM, Ezenwa VO, Farrell MJ, Gittleman JL, Han BA, Huang S, Hutchinson RA, Johnson P, Nunn CL, Onstad D, Park A, Vazquez-Prokopec GM, Schmidt JP, Poulin R. (2016). The macroecology of infectious diseases: a new perspective on global-scale drivers of pathogen distributions and impacts. Ecology letters, 19(9)

Dallas T, Park AW, Drake JM. (2017). Predictability of helminth parasite host range using information on geography, host traits and parasite community structure. Parasitology, 144(2)

Han BA, Kramer AM, Drake JM. (2016). Global Patterns of Zoonotic Disease in Mammals. Trends in parasitology, 32(7)

Dallas T, Drake JM. (2016). -pathogen system. Ecology and evolution, 6(21)

Han BA, Drake JM. (2016). Future directions in analytics for infectious disease intelligence: Toward an integrated warning system for emerging pathogens. EMBO reports, 17(6)

Dibble CJ, O'Dea EB, Park AW, Drake JM. (2016). Waiting time to infectious disease emergence. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 13(123)

Han BA, Schmidt JP, Alexander LW, Bowden SE, Hayman DT, Drake JM. (2016). Undiscovered Bat Hosts of Filoviruses. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 10(7)

Vinson JE, Drake JM, Rohani P, Park AW. (2016). The potential for sexual transmission to compromise control of Ebola virus outbreaks. Biology letters, 12(6)

Kramer AM, Ward JE, Dobbs FC, Pierce ML, Drake JM. (2016). The contribution of marine aggregate-associated bacteria to the accumulation of pathogenic bacteria in oysters: an agent-based model. Ecology and evolution, 6(20)

Kramer AM, Pulliam JT, Alexander LW, Park AW, Rohani P, Drake JM. (2016). Spatial spread of the West Africa Ebola epidemic. Royal Society open science, 3(8)

Kaul RB, Kramer AM, Dobbs FC, Drake JM. (2016). Experimental demonstration of an Allee effect in microbial populations. Biology letters, 12(4)

Dallas T, Holtackers M, Drake JM. (2016). Costs of resistance and infection by a generalist pathogen. Ecology and evolution, 6(6)

Dallas T, Hall RJ, Drake JM. (2016). Competition-mediated feedbacks in experimental multispecies epizootics. Ecology, 97(3)

O'Regan SM, Lillie JW, Drake JM. (2015). Leading indicators of mosquito-borne disease elimination. Theoretical ecology, (9)

Drake JM, Bakach I, Just MR, O'Regan SM, Gambhir M, Fung IC. (2015). Transmission Models of Historical Ebola Outbreaks. Emerging infectious diseases, 21(8)

Drake JM. (2015). Range bagging: a new method for ecological niche modelling from presence-only data. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 12(107)

Alexander KA, Sanderson CE, Marathe M, Lewis BL, Rivers CM, Shaman J, Drake JM, Lofgren E, Dato VM, Eisenberg MC, Eubank S. (2015). What factors might have led to the emergence of Ebola in West Africa?. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 9(6)

Han BA, Schmidt JP, Bowden SE, Drake JM. (2015). Rodent reservoirs of future zoonotic diseases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112(22)

Zokan M, Drake JM. (2015). The effect of hydroperiod and predation on the diversity of temporary pond zooplankton communities. Ecology and evolution, 5(15)

O'Reagan SM, Magori K, Pulliam JT, Zokan MA, Kaul RB, Barton HD, Drake JM. (2015). Multi-scale model of epidemic fade-out: Will local extirpation events inhibit the spread of white-nose syndrome?. Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America, 25(3)

Drake JM, Kaul RB, Alexander LW, O'Regan SM, Kramer AM, Pulliam JT, Ferrari MJ, Park AW. (2015). Ebola cases and health system demand in Liberia. PLoS biology, 13(1)

Krkošek M, Drake JM. (2014). On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 281(1784)

Brown VL, Drake JM, Barton HD, Stallknecht DE, Brown JD, Rohani P. (2014). Neutrality, cross-immunity and subtype dominance in avian influenza viruses. PLoS One, 9(2)

Halloran ME, Vespignani A, Bharti N, Feldstein LR, Alexander KA, Ferrari M, Shaman J, Drake JM, Porco T, Eisenberg JN, Del Valle SY, Lofgren E, Scarpino SV, Eisenberg MC, Gao D, Hyman JM, Eubank S, Longini IM Jr.. (2014). Ebola: mobility data. Science (New York, N.Y.), 346(6208)

Lofgren ET, Halloran ME, Rivers CM, Drake JM, Porco TC, Lewis B, Yang W, Vespignani A, Shaman J, Eisenberg JN, Eisenberg MC, Marathe M, Scarpino SV, Alexander KA, Meza R, Ferrari MJ, Hyman JM, Meyers LA, Eubank S. (2014). Opinion: Mathematical models: a key tool for outbreak response. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(51)

Drake JM, Beier JC. (2014). Ecological niche and potential distribution of Anopheles arabiensis in Africa in 2050. Malaria journal, (13)

Drake JM. (2014). Tail probabilities of extinction time in a large number of experimental populations. Ecology, 95(5)

Dallas T, Drake JM. (2014). Nitrate enrichment alters a Daphnia-microparasite interaction through multiple pathways. Ecology and evolution, 4(3)

Roche B, Drake JM, Brown J, Stallknecht DE, Bedford T, Rohani P. (2014). Adaptive evolution and environmental durability jointly structure phylodynamic patterns in avian influenza viruses. PLoS biology, 12(8)

Barton HD, Rohani P, Stallknecht DE, Brown J, Drake JM. (2014). Subtype diversity and reassortment potential for co-circulating avian influenza viruses at a diversity hot spot. The Journal of animal ecology, 83(3)

Drake JM. (2013). Early warning signals of stochastic switching. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 280(1766)

Robinson JD, Wares JP, Drake JM. (2013). Extinction hazards in experimental Daphnia magna populations: effects of genotype diversity and environmental variation. Ecology and evolution, 3(2)

Drake JM, Griffen BD. (2013). Experimental demonstration of accelerated extinction in source-sink metapopulations. Ecology and evolution, 3(10)

Kramer AM, Lyons MM, Dobbs FC, Drake JM. (2013). Bacterial colonization and extinction on marine aggregates: stochastic model of species presence and abundance. Ecology and evolution, 3(13)

Drake JM, Hassan AN, Beier JC. (2013). A statistical model of Rift Valley fever activity in Egypt. Journal of vector ecology : journal of the Society for Vector Ecology, 38(2)

Schmidt JP, Stephens PR, Drake JM. (2012). Two sides of the same coin? Rare and pest plants native to the United States and Canada. Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America, 22(5)

Maher SP, Kramer AM, Pulliam JT, Zokan MA, Bowden SE, Barton HD, Magori K, Drake JM. (2012). Spread of white-nose syndrome on a network regulated by geography and climate. Nature communications, (3)

Roche B, Drake JM, Rohani P. (2011). An agent-based model to study the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of Influenza viruses. BMC Bioinformatics, (12)

Drake JM, Shapiro J, Griffen BD. (2011). Experimental demonstration of a two-phase population extinction hazard. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 8(63)

Roche B, Drake JM, Rohani P. (2011). The curse of the Pharaoh revisited: evolutionary bi-stability in environmentally transmitted pathogens. Ecology letters, 14(6)

Schmidt JP, Drake JM. (2011). Why are some plant genera more invasive than others?. PLoS One, 6(4)

Schmidt JP, Drake JM. (2011). Time since introduction, seed mass, and genome size predict successful invaders among the cultivated vascular plants of Hawaii. PLoS One, 6(3)

Rohani P, Drake JM. (2011). The decline and resurgence of pertussis in the US. Epidemics, 3(3-4)

Bowden SE, Magori K, Drake JM. (2011). Regional differences in the association between land cover and West Nile virus disease incidence in humans in the United States. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 84(2)

Magori K, Bajwa WI, Bowden S, Drake JM. (2011). Decelerating spread of West Nile virus by percolation in a heterogeneous urban landscape. PLoS computational biology, 7(7)

Kramer AM, Drake JM. (2010). Experimental demonstration of population extinction due to a predator-driven Allee effect. The Journal of animal ecology, 79(3)

Drake JM, Griffen BD. (2010). Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments. Nature, 467(7314)

Breban R, Drake JM, Rohani P. (2010). A general multi-strain model with environmental transmission: invasion conditions for the disease-free and endemic states. Journal of theoretical biology, 264(3)

Drake JM, Griffen BD. (2009). Speed of expansion and extinction in experimental populations. Ecology letters, 12(8)

Griffen BD, Drake JM. (2009). Environment, but not migration rate, influences extinction risk in experimental metapopulations. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 276(1677)

Griffen BD, Drake JM. (2009). Scaling rules for the final decline to extinction. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 276(1660)

Drake JM. (2009). Evolutionary relationships among human-isolated and wildlife-isolated West Nile viruses. Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases, 9(6)

Rohani P, Breban R, Stallknecht DE, Drake JM. (2009). Environmental transmission of low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses and its implications for pathogen invasion. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106(25)

Breban R, Drake JM, Stallknecht DE, Rohani P. (2009). The role of environmental transmission in recurrent avian influenza epidemics. PLoS computational biology, 5(4)

Adler PB, Drake JM. (2008). Environmental variation, stochastic extinction, and competitive coexistence. The American naturalist, 172(5)

Griffen BD, Drake JM. (2008). A review of extinction in experimental populations. The Journal of animal ecology, 77(6)

Griffen BD, Drake JM. (2008). Effects of habitat quality and size on extinction in experimental populations. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 275(1648)

Drake JM. (2006). Heterosis, the catapult effect and establishment success of a colonizing bird. Biology letters, 2(2)

Drake JM, Chew SK, Ma S. (2006). Societal learning in epidemics: intervention effectiveness during the 2003 SARS outbreak in Singapore. PLoS One, (1)

Drake JM. (2006). Limits to forecasting precision for outbreaks of directly transmitted diseases. PLoS medicine, 3(1)

Drake JM. (2006). Extinction times in experimental populations. Ecology, 87(9)

Vellend M, Knight TM, Drake JM. (2006). Antagonistic effects of seed dispersal and herbivory on plant migration. Ecology letters, 9(3)

Drake JM, Baggenstos P, Lodge DM. (2005). Propagule pressure and persistence in experimental populations. Biology letters, 1(4)

Drake JM. (2005). Population effects of increased climate variation. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 272(1574)

Drake JM. (2005). Density-dependent demographic variation determines extinction rate of experimental populations. PLoS biology, 3(7)

Drake JM. (2005). Fundamental limits to the precision of early warning systems for epidemics of infectious diseases. PLoS medicine, 2(5)

Drake JM, Lodge DM. (2004). Global hot spots of biological invasions: evaluating options for ballast-water management. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 271(1539)

Drake JM. (2004). Allee effects and the risk of biological invasion. Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 24(4)

Drake JM. (2003). Why does grassland productivity increase with species richness? Disentangling species richness and composition with tests for overyielding and superyielding in biodiversity experiments. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 270(1525)

Drake JM. (2003). The paradox of the parasites: implications for biological invasion. Proceedings. Biological sciences, (270 Suppl 2)

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