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Justin Lessler

Associate Professor

Education

Affiliations

Projects

Papers

Grantz KH, Lee EC, D'Agostino McGowan L, Lee KH, Metcalf CJE, Gurley ES, Lessler J. (2021). Maximizing and evaluating the impact of test-trace-isolate programs: A modeling study. PLoS medicine, 18(4)

Li X, Mukandavire C, Cucunubá ZM, Echeverria Londono S, Abbas K, Clapham HE, Jit M, Johnson HL, Papadopoulos T, Vynnycky E, Brisson M, Carter ED, Clark A, de Villiers MJ, Eilertson K, Ferrari MJ, Gamkrelidze I, Gaythorpe KAM, Grassly NC, Hallett TB, Hinsley W, Jackson ML, Jean K, Karachaliou A, Klepac P, Lessler J, Li X, Moore SM, Nayagam S, Nguyen DM, Razavi H, Razavi-Shearer D, Resch S, Sanderson C, Sweet S, Sy S, Tam Y, Tanvir H, Tran QM, Trotter CL, Truelove S, van Zandvoort K, Verguet S, Walker N, Winter A, Woodruff K, Ferguson NM, Garske T, . (2021). Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study. Lancet, 397(10272)

Thielen PM, Wohl S, Mehoke T, Ramakrishnan S, Kirsche M, Falade-Nwulia O, Trovão NS, Ernlund A, Howser C, Sadowski N, Morris CP, Hopkins M, Schwartz M, Fan Y, Gniazdowski V, Lessler J, Sauer L, Schatz MC, Evans JD, Ray SC, Timp W, Mostafa HH. (2021). Genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 during early introduction into the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area. JCI insight, 6(6)

Zhang Z, Bi Q, Fang S, Wei L, Wang X, He J, Wu Y, Liu X, Gao W, Zhang R, Gong W, Su Q, Azman AS, Lessler J, Zou X. (2021). Insight into the practical performance of RT-PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 using serological data: a cohort study. The Lancet. Microbe

Bi Q, Lessler J, Eckerle I, Lauer SA, Kaiser L, Vuilleumier N, Cummings DAT, Flahault A, Petrovic D, Guessous I, Stringhini S, Azman AS, . (2021). Insights into household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from a population-based serological survey. Nature communications, 12(1)

Toor J, Echeverria-Londono S, Li X, Abbas K, Carter ED, Clapham HE, Clark A, de Villiers MJ, Eilertson K, Ferrari M, Gamkrelidze I, Hallett TB, Hinsley WR, Hogan D, Huber JH, Jackson ML, Jean K, Jit M, Karachaliou A, Klepac P, Kraay A, Lessler J, Li X, Lopman BA, Mengistu T, Metcalf CJE, Moore SM, Nayagam S, Papadopoulos T, Perkins TA, Portnoy A, Razavi H, Razavi-Shearer D, Resch S, Sanderson C, Sweet S, Tam Y, Tanvir H, Tran Minh Q, Trotter CL, Truelove SA, Vynnycky E, Walker N, Winter A, Woodruff K, Ferguson NM, Gaythorpe KA. (2021). Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world. eLife, (10)

Yang B, Huang AT, Garcia-Carreras B, Hart WE, Staid A, Hitchings MDT, Lee EC, Howe CJ, Grantz KH, Wesolowksi A, Lemaitre JC, Rattigan S, Moreno C, Borgert BA, Dale C, Quigley N, Cummings A, McLorg A, LoMonaco K, Schlossberg S, Barron-Kraus D, Shrock H, , Lessler J, Laird CD, Cummings DAT. (2021). Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States. Nature communications, 12(1)

Lemaitre JC, Grantz KH, Kaminsky J, Meredith HR, Truelove SA, Lauer SA, Keegan LT, Shah S, Wills J, Kaminsky K, Perez-Saez J, Lessler J, Lee EC. (2021). A scenario modeling pipeline for COVID-19 emergency planning. Scientific reports, 11(1)

Jones FK, Wamala JF, Rumunu J, Mawien PN, Kol MT, Wohl S, Deng L, Pezzoli L, Omar LH, Lessler J, Quilici ML, Luquero FJ, Azman AS. (2020). Successive epidemic waves of cholera in South Sudan between 2014 and 2017: a descriptive epidemiological study. The Lancet. Planetary health, 4(12)

Azman AS, Lauer SA, Bhuiyan TR, Luquero FJ, Leung DT, Hegde ST, Harris JB, Paul KK, Khaton F, Ferdous J, Lessler J, Salje H, Qadri F, Gurley ES. (2020). O1 transmission in Bangladesh: insights from a nationally representative serosurvey. The Lancet. Microbe, 1(8)

Yang B, Lessler J, Zhu H, Jiang CQ, Read JM, Hay JA, Kwok KO, Shen R, Guan Y, Riley S, Cummings DAT. (2020). Life course exposures continually shape antibody profiles and risk of seroconversion to influenza. PLoS pathogens, 16(7)

Fox MP, D'Agostino McGowan L, James BD, Lessler J, Mehta SH, Murray EJ. (2020). Concerns About the Special Article on Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin in High Risk Outpatients with COVID-19 by Dr. Harvey Risch. American journal of epidemiology

Lee EC, Chao DL, Lemaitre JC, Matrajt L, Pasetto D, Perez-Saez J, Finger F, Rinaldo A, Sugimoto JD, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Ternier R, Vissieres K, Azman AS, Lessler J, Ivers LC. (2020). Achieving coordinated national immunity and cholera elimination in Haiti through vaccination: a modelling study. The Lancet. Global health, 8(8)

Quandelacy TM, Cummings DAT, Jiang CQ, Yang B, Kwok KO, Dai B, Shen R, Read JM, Zhu H, Guan Y, Riley S, Lessler J. (2020). Using serological measures to estimate influenza incidence in the presence of secular trends in exposure and immuno-modulation of antibody response. Influenza and other respiratory viruses

Bi Q, Wu Y, Mei S, Ye C, Zou X, Zhang Z, Liu X, Wei L, Truelove SA, Zhang T, Gao W, Cheng C, Tang X, Wu X, Wu Y, Sun B, Huang S, Sun Y, Zhang J, Ma T, Lessler J, Feng T. (2020). Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in 391 cases and 1286 of their close contacts in Shenzhen, China: a retrospective cohort study. The Lancet. Infectious diseases

Lee EC, Wada NI, Grabowski MK, Gurley ES, Lessler J. (2020). The engines of SARS-CoV-2 spread. Science (New York, N.Y.), 370(6515)

Edwards JK, Lessler J. (2020). What Now? Epidemiology in the Wake of a Pandemic. American journal of epidemiology

Lee EC, Ternier R, Lessler J, Azman AS, Ivers LC, . (2020). Cholera in Haiti - Authors' reply. The Lancet. Global health, 8(12)

Kate Grabowski M, Lessler J, Bazaale J, Nabukalu D, Nankinga J, Nantume B, Ssekasanvu J, Reynolds SJ, Ssekubugu R, Nalugoda F, Kigozi G, Kagaayi J, Santelli JS, Kennedy C, Wawer MJ, Serwadda D, Chang LW, Gray RH. (2020). Migration, hotspots, and dispersal of HIV infection in Rakai, Uganda. Nature communications, 11(1)

Huang AT, Garcia-Carreras B, Hitchings MDT, Yang B, Katzelnick LC, Rattigan SM, Borgert BA, Moreno CA, Solomon BD, Trimmer-Smith L, Etienne V, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Lessler J, Salje H, Burke DS, Wesolowski A, Cummings DAT. (2020). A systematic review of antibody mediated immunity to coronaviruses: kinetics, correlates of protection, and association with severity. Nature communications, 11(1)

Huang AT, Garcia-Carreras B, Hitchings MDT, Yang B, Katzelnick LC, Rattigan SM, Borgert BA, Moreno CA, Solomon BD, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Lessler J, Salje H, Burke D, Wesolowski A, Cummings DAT. (2020). A systematic review of antibody mediated immunity to coronaviruses: antibody kinetics, correlates of protection, and association of antibody responses with severity of disease. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Lessler J. (2020). An overlooked role for fecal transmission of SARS-CoV-2?. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

Thielen PM, Wohl S, Mehoke T, Ramakrishnan S, Kirsche M, Falade-Nwulia O, Trovao NS, Erlund A, Howser C, Sadowski N, Morris P, Hopkins M, Schwartz M, Fan Y, Gniazdowski V, Lessler J, Sauer L, Schatz MC, Evans JD, Ray SC, Timp W, Mostafa HH. (2020). Genomic Diversity of SARS-CoV-2 During Early Introduction into the United States National Capital Region. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Kucirka LM, Lauer SA, Laeyendecker O, Boon D, Lessler J. (2020). Variation in False-Negative Rate of Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction-Based SARS-CoV-2 Tests by Time Since Exposure. Annals of internal medicine

Salje H, Tran Kiem C, Lefrancq N, Courtejoie N, Bosetti P, Paireau J, Andronico A, Hozé N, Richet J, Dubost CL, Le Strat Y, Lessler J, Lévy-Bruhl D, Fontanet A, Opatowski L, Boelle PY, Cauchemez S. (2020). Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France. Science (New York, N.Y.)

Lauer SA, Grantz KH, Bi Q, Jones FK, Zheng Q, Meredith HR, Azman AS, Reich NG, Lessler J. (2020). The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of internal medicine

Cummings DAT, Radonovich LJ, Gorse GJ, Gaydos CA, Bessesen MT, Brown AC, Gibert CL, Hitchings MDT, Lessler J, Nyquist AC, Rattigan SM, Rodriguez-Barradas MC, Price CS, Reich NG, Simberkoff MS, Perl TM. (2020). Risk Factors for Healthcare Personnel Infection with Endemic Coronaviruses (HKU1, OC43, NL63, 229E): Results from the Respiratory Protection Effectiveness Clinical Trial (ResPECT). Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

Hay JA, Minter A, Ainslie KEC, Lessler J, Yang B, Cummings DAT, Kucharski AJ, Riley S. (2020). An open source tool to infer epidemiological and immunological dynamics from serological data: Serosolver. PLoS computational biology, 16(5)

Lauer Stephen A, Grantz Kyra H, Bi Qifang, Jones Forrest K, Zheng Qulu, Meredith Hannah, Azman Andrew S, Reich Nicholas G, Lessler Justin. (2019). The incubation period of 2019-nCoV from publicly reported confirmed cases: estimation and application

Bi Qifang, Wu Yongsheng, Mei Shujiang, Ye Chenfei, Zou Xuan, Zhang Zhen, Liu Xiaojian, Wei Lan, Truelove Shaun A, Zhang Tong, Gao Wei, Cheng Cong, Tang Xiujuan, Wu Xiaoliang, Wu Yu, Sun Binbin, Huang Suli, Sun Yu, Zhang Juncen, Ma Ting, Lessler Justin, Feng Teijian. (2019). Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press

Shannon K, Hast M, Azman AS, Legros D, McKay H, Lessler J. (2019). Cholera prevention and control in refugee settings: Successes and continued challenges. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 13(6)

Lee EC, Azman AS, Kaminsky J, Moore SM, McKay HS, Lessler J. (2019). The projected impact of geographic targeting of oral cholera vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa: A modeling study. PLoS medicine, 16(12)

Azman AS, Moore SM, Lessler J. (2019). Surveillance and the global fight against cholera: Setting priorities and tracking progress. Vaccine

Kaminsky J, Keegan LT, Metcalf CJE, Lessler J. (2019). Perfect counterfactuals for epidemic simulations. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 374(1776)

Truelove SA, Keegan LT, Moss WJ, Chaisson LH, Macher E, Azman AS, Lessler J. (2019). Clinical and Epidemiological Aspects of Diphtheria:A Systematic Review and Pooled Analysis. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

Borchering RK, Huang AT, Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L, Rojas DP, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Katzelnick LC, Martinez SD, King GD, Cinkovich SC, Lessler J, Cummings DAT. (2019). Impacts of Zika emergence in Latin America on endemic dengue transmission. Nature communications, 10(1)

Wallace M, Sharfstein J, Lessler J. (2019). Performance and Priorities: A Cross-sectional Study of Local Health Department Approaches to Essential Public Health Services. Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974), 135(1)

Johansson MA, Apfeldorf KM, Dobson S, Devita J, Buczak AL, Baugher B, Moniz LJ, Bagley T, Babin SM, Guven E, Yamana TK, Shaman J, Moschou T, Lothian N, Lane A, Osborne G, Jiang G, Brooks LC, Farrow DC, Hyun S, Tibshirani RJ, Rosenfeld R, Lessler J, Reich NG, Cummings DAT, Lauer SA, Moore SM, Clapham HE, Lowe R, Bailey TC, García-Díez M, Carvalho MS, Rodó X, Sardar T, Paul R, Ray EL, Sakrejda K, Brown AC, Meng X, Osoba O, Vardavas R, Manheim D, Moore M, Rao DM, Porco TC, Ackley S, Liu F, Worden L, Convertino M, Liu Y, Reddy A, Ortiz E, Rivero J, Brito H, Juarrero A, Johnson LR, Gramacy RB, Cohen JM, Mordecai EA, Murdock CC, Rohr JR, Ryan SJ, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Weikel DP, Jutla A, Khan R, Poultney M, Colwell RR, Rivera-García B, Barker CM, Bell JE, Biggerstaff M, Swerdlow D, Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L, Forshey BM, Trtanj J, Asher J, Clay M, Margolis HS, Hebbeler AM, George D, Chretien JP. (2019). An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(48)

Bi Q, Goodman KE, Kaminsky J, Lessler J. (2019). What Is Machine Learning: a Primer for the Epidemiologist. American journal of epidemiology

Graham M, Winter AK, Ferrari M, Grenfell B, Moss WJ, Azman AS, Metcalf CJE, Lessler J. (2019). Measles and the canonical path to elimination. Science (New York, N.Y.), 364(6440)

Utazi CE, Thorley J, Alegana VA, Ferrari MJ, Takahashi S, Metcalf CJE, Lessler J, Cutts FT, Tatem AJ. (2019). Mapping vaccination coverage to explore the effects of delivery mechanisms and inform vaccination strategies. Nature communications, 10(1)

Lessler J, Orenstein WA. (2019). The Many Faces of Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Disease. Epidemiologic reviews

Wallace M, Sharfstein JM, Kaminsky J, Lessler J. (2019). Comparison of US County-Level Public Health Performance Rankings With County Cluster and National Rankings: Assessment Based on Prevalence Rates of Smoking and Obesity and Motor Vehicle Crash Death Rates. JAMA network open, 2(1)

Kucharski AJ, Lessler J, Cummings DAT, Riley S. (2018). Timescales of influenza A/H3N2 antibody dynamics. PLoS biology, 16(8)

Haw DJ, Cummings DAT, Lessler J, Salje H, Read JM, Riley S. (2018). Differential mobility and local variation in infection attack rate. PLoS computational biology, 15(1)

Salje H, Cummings DAT, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Katzelnick LC, Lessler J, Klungthong C, Thaisomboonsuk B, Nisalak A, Weg A, Ellison D, Macareo L, Yoon IK, Jarman R, Thomas S, Rothman AL, Endy T, Cauchemez S. (2018). Reconstruction of antibody dynamics and infection histories to evaluate dengue risk. Nature, 557(7707)

Truelove SA, Graham M, Moss WJ, Metcalf CJE, Ferrari MJ, Lessler J. (2019). Characterizing the impact of spatial clustering of susceptibility for measles elimination. Vaccine, 37(5)

Viboud C, Lessler J. (2018). The 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Looking Back, Looking Forward. American journal of epidemiology, 187(12)

Lauer SA, Sakrejda K, Ray EL, Keegan LT, Bi Q, Suangtho P, Hinjoy S, Iamsirithaworn S, Suthachana S, Laosiritaworn Y, Cummings DAT, Lessler J, Reich NG. (2018). Prospective forecasts of annual dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Thailand, 2010-2014. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(10)

Winter AK, Martinez ME, Cutts FT, Moss WJ, Ferrari MJ, McKee A, Lessler J, Hayford K, Wallinga J, Metcalf CJE. (2018). Benefits and Challenges in Using Seroprevalence Data to Inform Models for Measles and Rubella Elimination. The Journal of infectious diseases, 218(3)

Reich NG, Lessler J, Varma JK, Vora NM. (2018). Quantifying the Risk and Cost of Active Monitoring for Infectious Diseases. Scientific reports, 8(1)

Azman AS, Luquero FJ, Salje H, Mbaïbardoum NN, Adalbert N, Ali M, Bertuzzo E, Finger F, Toure B, Massing LA, Ramazani R, Saga B, Allan M, Olson D, Leglise J, Porten K, Lessler J. (2018). Micro-Hotspots of Risk in Urban Cholera Epidemics. The Journal of infectious diseases, 218(7)

Graham M, Suk JE, Takahashi S, Metcalf CJ, Jimenez AP, Prikazsky V, Ferrari MJ, Lessler J. (2018). Challenges and Opportunities in Disease Forecasting in Outbreak Settings: A Case Study of Measles in Lola Prefecture, Guinea. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 98(5)

Lessler J, Moore SM, Luquero FJ, McKay HS, Grais R, Henkens M, Mengel M, Dunoyer J, M'bangombe M, Lee EC, Djingarey MH, Sudre B, Bompangue D, Fraser RSM, Abubakar A, Perea W, Legros D, Azman AS. (2018). Mapping the burden of cholera in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for control: an analysis of data across geographical scales. Lancet, 391(10133)

Lessler J, Azman AS, McKay HS, Moore SM. (2017). What is a Hotspot Anyway?. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 96(6)

Halloran ME, Auranen K, Baird S, Basta NE, Bellan SE, Brookmeyer R, Cooper BS, DeGruttola V, Hughes JP, Lessler J, Lofgren ET, Longini IM, Onnela JP, Özler B, Seage GR, Smith TA, Vespignani A, Vynnycky E, Lipsitch M. (2017). Simulations for designing and interpreting intervention trials in infectious diseases. BMC medicine, 15(1)

Takahashi S, Metcalf CJE, Ferrari MJ, Tatem AJ, Lessler J. (2017). The geography of measles vaccination in the African Great Lakes region. Nature communications, (8)

Grabowski MK, Serwadda DM, Gray RH, Nakigozi G, Kigozi G, Kagaayi J, Ssekubugu R, Nalugoda F, Lessler J, Lutalo T, Galiwango RM, Makumbi F, Kong X, Kabatesi D, Alamo ST, Wiersma S, Sewankambo NK, Tobian AAR, Laeyendecker O, Quinn TC, Reynolds SJ, Wawer MJ, Chang LW, . (2017). HIV Prevention Efforts and Incidence of HIV in Uganda. The New England journal of medicine, 377(22)

Salje H, Lessler J, Maljkovic Berry I, Melendrez MC, Endy T, Kalayanarooj S, A-Nuegoonpipat A, Chanama S, Sangkijporn S, Klungthong C, Thaisomboonsuk B, Nisalak A, Gibbons RV, Iamsirithaworn S, Macareo LR, Yoon IK, Sangarsang A, Jarman RG, Cummings DA. (2017). Dengue diversity across spatial and temporal scales: Local structure and the effect of host population size. Science (New York, N.Y.), 355(6331)

Kirsch TD, Moseson H, Massaquoi M, Nyenswah TG, Goodermote R, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Lessler J, Cumings DA, Peters DH. (2017). Impact of interventions and the incidence of ebola virus disease in Liberia-implications for future epidemics. Health policy and planning, 32(2)

Keegan LT, Lessler J, Johansson MA. (2017). Quantifying Zika: Advancing the Epidemiology of Zika With Quantitative Models. The Journal of infectious diseases, 216(suppl_10)

Metcalf CJE, Lessler J. (2017). Opportunities and challenges in modeling emerging infectious diseases. Science (New York, N.Y.), 357(6347)

Moore SM, Azman AS, Zaitchik BF, Mintz ED, Brunkard J, Legros D, Hill A, McKay H, Luquero FJ, Olson D, Lessler J. (2017). El Niño and the shifting geography of cholera in Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114(17)

Lessler J, Ott CT, Carcelen AC, Konikoff JM, Williamson J, Bi Q, Kucirka LM, Cummings DA, Reich NG, Chaisson LH. (2016). Times to key events in Zika virus infection and implications for blood donation: a systematic review. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 94(11)

Bi Q, Azman AS, Satter SM, Khan AI, Ahmed D, Riaj AA, Gurley ES, Lessler J. (2016). Micro-scale Spatial Clustering of Cholera Risk Factors in Urban Bangladesh. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 10(2)

Reich NG, Lauer SA, Sakrejda K, Iamsirithaworn S, Hinjoy S, Suangtho P, Suthachana S, Clapham HE, Salje H, Cummings DA, Lessler J. (2016). Challenges in Real-Time Prediction of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue in Thailand. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 10(6)

Lessler J, Metcalf CJ, Cutts FT, Grenfell BT. (2016). Impact on Epidemic Measles of Vaccination Campaigns Triggered by Disease Outbreaks or Serosurveys: A Modeling Study. PLoS medicine, 13(10)

Chang LW, Grabowski MK, Ssekubugu R, Nalugoda F, Kigozi G, Nantume B, Lessler J, Moore SM, Quinn TC, Reynolds SJ, Gray RH, Serwadda D, Wawer MJ. (2016). Heterogeneity of the HIV epidemic in agrarian, trading, and fishing communities in Rakai, Uganda: an observational epidemiological study. The lancet. HIV, 3(8)

Nisalak A, Clapham HE, Kalayanarooj S, Klungthong C, Thaisomboonsuk B, Fernandez S, Reiser J, Srikiatkhachorn A, Macareo LR, Lessler JT, Cummings DA, Yoon IK. (2016). Forty Years of Dengue Surveillance at a Tertiary Pediatric Hospital in Bangkok, Thailand, 1973-2012. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 94(6)

Azman AS, Luquero FJ, Ciglenecki I, Grais RF, Sack DA, Lessler J. (2016). Correction: The Impact of a One-Dose versus Two-Dose Oral Cholera Vaccine Regimen in Outbreak Settings: A Modeling Study. PLoS medicine, 13(3)

Cauchemez S, Nouvellet P, Cori A, Jombart T, Garske T, Clapham H, Moore S, Mills HL, Salje H, Collins C, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Riley S, Truelove S, Algarni H, Alhakeem R, AlHarbi K, Turkistani A, Aguas RJ, Cummings DA, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Lessler J, Fraser C, Al-Barrak A, Ferguson NM. (2016). Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113(32)

Lessler J, Cummings DA. (2016). Mechanistic Models of Infectious Disease and Their Impact on Public Health. American journal of epidemiology, 183(5)

Lessler J, Salje H, Grabowski MK, Cummings DA. (2016). Measuring Spatial Dependence for Infectious Disease Epidemiology. PLoS One, 11(5)

Salje H, Cummings DAT, Lessler J. (2016). Estimating infectious disease transmission distances using the overall distribution of cases. Epidemics, (17)

Ferguson NM, Cucunubá ZM, Dorigatti I, Nedjati-Gilani GL, Donnelly CA, Basáñez MG, Nouvellet P, Lessler J. (2016). EPIDEMIOLOGY. Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America. Science (New York, N.Y.), 353(6297)

Jiang CQ, Lessler J, Kim L, Kwok KO, Read JM, Wang S, Tan L, Hast M, Zhu H, Guan Y, Riley S, Cummings DA. (2017). Cohort Profile: A study of influenza immunity in the urban and rural Guangzhou region of China: the Fluscape Study. International journal of epidemiology, 46(2)

Lessler J, Chaisson LH, Kucirka LM, Bi Q, Grantz K, Salje H, Carcelen AC, Ott CT, Sheffield JS, Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Metcalf CJ, Rodriguez-Barraquer I. (2016). Assessing the global threat from Zika virus. Science (New York, N.Y.), 353(6300)

Truelove S, Zhu H, Lessler J, Riley S, Read JM, Wang S, Kwok KO, Guan Y, Jiang CQ, Cummings DA. (2016). A comparison of hemagglutination inhibition and neutralization assays for characterizing immunity to seasonal influenza A. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 10(6)

Metcalf CJ, Farrar J, Cutts FT, Basta NE, Graham AL, Lessler J, Ferguson NM, Burke DS, Grenfell BT. (2016). Use of serological surveys to generate key insights into the changing global landscape of infectious disease. Lancet, 388(10045)

Reich NG, Lessler J, Sakrejda K, Lauer SA, Iamsirithaworn S, Cummings DA. (2016). Case study in evaluating time series prediction models using the relative mean absolute error. The American statistician, 70(3)

Salje H, Lessler J, Paul KK, Azman AS, Rahman MW, Rahman M, Cummings D, Gurley ES, Cauchemez S. (2016). How social structures, space, and behaviors shape the spread of infectious diseases using chikungunya as a case study. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113(47)

Lessler J, Salje H, Van Kerkhove MD, Ferguson NM, Cauchemez S, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Hakeem R, Jombart T, Aguas R, Al-Barrak A, Cummings DA, . (2016). Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. American journal of epidemiology, 183(7)

Grabowski MK, Lessler J. (2016). Phylogenetic insights into age-disparate partnerships and HIV. The lancet. HIV, 4(1)

Lessler J, Azman AS, Grabowski MK, Salje H, Rodriguez-Barraquer I. (2016). Trends in the Mechanistic and Dynamic Modeling of Infectious Diseases. Current epidemiology reports, 3(3)

Azman AS, Luquero FJ, Ciglenecki I, Grais RF, Sack DA, Lessler J. (2015). The Impact of a One-Dose versus Two-Dose Oral Cholera Vaccine Regimen in Outbreak Settings: A Modeling Study. PLoS medicine, 12(8)

Clapham H, Cummings DA, Nisalak A, Kalayanarooj S, Thaisomboonsuk B, Klungthong C, Fernandez S, Srikiatkhachorn A, Macareo LR, Lessler J, Reiser J, Yoon IK. (2015). Epidemiology of Infant Dengue Cases Illuminates Serotype-Specificity in the Interaction between Immunity and Disease, and Changes in Transmission Dynamics. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 9(12)

Kucharski AJ, Lessler J, Read JM, Zhu H, Jiang CQ, Guan Y, Cummings DA, Riley S. (2015). Estimating the life course of influenza A(H3N2) antibody responses from cross-sectional data. PLoS biology, 13(3)

Wesolowski A, Metcalf CJ, Eagle N, Kombich J, Grenfell BT, Bjørnstad ON, Lessler J, Tatem AJ, Buckee CO. (2015). Quantifying seasonal population fluxes driving rubella transmission dynamics using mobile phone data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112(35)

Takahashi S, Metcalf CJ, Ferrari MJ, Moss WJ, Truelove SA, Tatem AJ, Grenfell BT, Lessler J. (2015). Reduced vaccination and the risk of measles and other childhood infections post-Ebola. Science (New York, N.Y.), 347(6227)

Heesterbeek H, Anderson RM, Andreasen V, Bansal S, De Angelis D, Dye C, Eames KT, Edmunds WJ, Frost SD, Funk S, Hollingsworth TD, House T, Isham V, Klepac P, Lessler J, Lloyd-Smith JO, Metcalf CJ, Mollison D, Pellis L, Pulliam JR, Roberts MG, Viboud C, . (2015). Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health. Science (New York, N.Y.), 347(6227)

Truelove SA, Moss WJ, Lessler J. (2015). Mitigating measles outbreaks in West Africa post-Ebola. Expert review of anti-infective therapy, 13(11)

Moore SM, Lessler J. (2015). Optimal allocation of the limited oral cholera vaccine supply between endemic and epidemic settings. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 12(111)

Kucharski AJ, Kwok KO, Wei VW, Cowling BJ, Read JM, Lessler J, Cummings DA, Riley S. (2014). The contribution of social behaviour to the transmission of influenza A in a human population. PLoS pathogens, 10(6)

Kaufman J, Lessler J, Harry A, Edlund S, Hu K, Douglas J, Thoens C, Appel B, Käsbohrer A, Filter M. (2014). A likelihood-based approach to identifying contaminated food products using sales data: performance and challenges. PLoS computational biology, 10(7)

Grabowski MK, Lessler J, Redd AD, Kagaayi J, Laeyendecker O, Ndyanabo A, Nelson MI, Cummings DA, Bwanika JB, Mueller AC, Reynolds SJ, Munshaw S, Ray SC, Lutalo T, Manucci J, Tobian AA, Chang LW, Beyrer C, Jennings JM, Nalugoda F, Serwadda D, Wawer MJ, Quinn TC, Gray RH, . (2014). The role of viral introductions in sustaining community-based HIV epidemics in rural Uganda: evidence from spatial clustering, phylogenetics, and egocentric transmission models. PLoS medicine, 11(3)

Lessler J, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Cummings DA, Garske T, Van Kerkhove M, Mills H, Truelove S, Hakeem R, Albarrak A, Ferguson NM, , . (2014). Estimating Potential Incidence of MERS-CoV Associated with Hajj Pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014. PLoS currents, (6)

Lessler J. (2014). Immunology. Charting the life-course epidemiology of influenza. Science (New York, N.Y.), 346(6212)

Moore SM, Shannon KL, Zelaya CE, Azman AS, Lessler J. (2014). Epidemic risk from cholera introductions into Mexico. PLoS currents, (6)

Rudolph KE, Lessler J, Moloney RM, Kmush B, Cummings DA. (2014). Incubation periods of mosquito-borne viral infections: a systematic review. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 90(5)

Azman AS, Lessler J. (2015). Reactive vaccination in the presence of disease hotspots. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 282(1798)

Kwok KO, Cowling BJ, Wei VW, Wu KM, Read JM, Lessler J, Cummings DA, Peiris JS, Riley S. (2014). Social contacts and the locations in which they occur as risk factors for influenza infection. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 281(1789)

Read JM, Lessler J, Riley S, Wang S, Tan LJ, Kwok KO, Guan Y, Jiang CQ, Cummings DA. (2014). Social mixing patterns in rural and urban areas of southern China. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 281(1785)

Rainwater-Lovett K, Chun K, Lessler J. (2013). Influenza outbreak control practices and the effectiveness of interventions in long-term care facilities: a systematic review. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 8(1)

Lee RM, Lessler J, Lee RA, Rudolph KE, Reich NG, Perl TM, Cummings DA. (2013). Incubation periods of viral gastroenteritis: a systematic review. BMC infectious diseases, (13)

Rodríguez-Barraquer I, Buathong R, Iamsirithaworn S, Nisalak A, Lessler J, Jarman RG, Gibbons RV, Cummings DA. (2014). Revisiting Rayong: shifting seroprofiles of dengue in Thailand and their implications for transmission and control. American journal of epidemiology, 179(3)

Reich NG, Shrestha S, King AA, Rohani P, Lessler J, Kalayanarooj S, Yoon IK, Gibbons RV, Burke DS, Cummings DA. (2013). Interactions between serotypes of dengue highlight epidemiological impact of cross-immunity. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 10(86)

Lessler J, Metcalf CJ. (2013). Balancing evidence and uncertainty when considering rubella vaccine introduction. PLoS One, 8(7)

Salje H, Lessler J, Endy TP, Curriero FC, Gibbons RV, Nisalak A, Nimmannitya S, Kalayanarooj S, Jarman RG, Thomas SJ, Burke DS, Cummings DA. (2012). Revealing the microscale spatial signature of dengue transmission and immunity in an urban population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109(24)

Lessler J, Metcalf CJ, Grenfell BT. (2012). Measurement of vaccine-derived immunity: how do we use all the data?. Expert review of vaccines, 11(7)

Althouse BM, Lessler J, Sall AA, Diallo M, Hanley KA, Watts DM, Weaver SC, Cummings DA. (2012). Synchrony of sylvatic dengue isolations: a multi-host, multi-vector SIR model of dengue virus transmission in Senegal. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 6(11)

Rainwater-Lovett K, Rodríguez-Barraquer I, Cummings DA, Lessler J. (2012). Variation in dengue virus plaque reduction neutralization testing: systematic review and pooled analysis. BMC infectious diseases, (12)

Reich NG, Lessler J, Cummings DA, Brookmeyer R. (2012). Estimating absolute and relative case fatality ratios from infectious disease surveillance data. Biometrics, 68(2)

Lessler J, Riley S, Read JM, Wang S, Zhu H, Smith GJ, Guan Y, Jiang CQ, Cummings DA. (2012). Evidence for antigenic seniority in influenza A (H3N2) antibody responses in southern China. PLoS pathogens, 8(7)

Azman AS, Luquero FJ, Rodrigues A, Palma PP, Grais RF, Banga CN, Grenfell BT, Lessler J. (2012). Urban cholera transmission hotspots and their implications for reactive vaccination: evidence from Bissau city, Guinea bissau. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 6(11)

Azman AS, Rudolph KE, Cummings DA, Lessler J. (2013). The incubation period of cholera: a systematic review. The Journal of infection, 66(5)

Lessler J, Metcalf CJ, Grais RF, Luquero FJ, Cummings DA, Grenfell BT. (2011). Measuring the performance of vaccination programs using cross-sectional surveys: a likelihood framework and retrospective analysis. PLoS medicine, 8(10)

Reich NG, Perl TM, Cummings DA, Lessler J. (2011). Visualizing clinical evidence: citation networks for the incubation periods of respiratory viral infections. PLoS One, 6(4)

Lessler J, Cummings DA, Read JM, Wang S, Zhu H, Smith GJ, Guan Y, Jiang CQ, Riley S. (2011). Location-specific patterns of exposure to recent pre-pandemic strains of influenza A in southern China. Nature communications, (2)

Reich NG, Lessler J, Chu H, Cole SR. (2011). Identification of the asymptomatic ratio. Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 22(3)

Lessler J, Dos Santos T, Aguilera X, Brookmeyer R, , Cummings DAT. (2010). H1N1pdm in the Americas. Epidemics, 2(3)

Lessler J, Brookmeyer R, Reich NG, Nelson KE, Cummings DA, Perl TM. (2010). Identifying the probable timing and setting of respiratory virus infections. Infection control and hospital epidemiology, 31(8)

Cummings DA, Iamsirithaworn S, Lessler JT, McDermott A, Prasanthong R, Nisalak A, Jarman RG, Burke DS, Gibbons RV. (2009). The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling. PLoS medicine, 6(9)

Lessler J, Reich NG, Cummings DA, , Nair HP, Jordan HT, Thompson N. (2009). Outbreak of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) at a New York City school. The New England journal of medicine, 361(27)

Lessler J, Reich NG, Brookmeyer R, Perl TM, Nelson KE, Cummings DA. (2009). Incubation periods of acute respiratory viral infections: a systematic review. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 9(5)

Reich NG, Lessler J, Cummings DA, Brookmeyer R. (2009). Estimating incubation period distributions with coarse data. Statistics in medicine, 28(22)

Lessler J, Kaufman JH, Ford DA, Douglas JV. (2009). The cost of simplifying air travel when modeling disease spread. PLoS One, 4(2)

Lessler J, Brookmeyer R, Perl TM. (2007). An evaluation of classification rules based on date of symptom onset to identify health-care associated infections. American journal of epidemiology, 166(10)

Lessler J, Cummings DA, Fishman S, Vora A, Burke DS. (2007). Transmissibility of swine flu at Fort Dix, 1976. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 4(15)

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