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Lee Worden

Bio

I use mathematical models, statistical analysis, and software simulations to investigate collective behavior of populations and communities. Ongoing research includes disease transmission dynamics, emergence of cooperation in repeated interaction between individuals (using old-school game theory in unorthodox ways), how a diverse ecosystem can coordinate sustainable use of resources (using fairly common mathematical models of evolutionary ecological dynamics in an unusual way) and how a network of people can sort through a set of competing options collectively by exchanging information locally (using models of stochastic dynamics on networks). Specialties: deterministic and stochastic dynamical systems theory, theoretical population biology, individual- and agent-based modeling, science and technology studies

Education

Affiliations

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Personal Academic Website

Topics of Interest/Expertise
 

Countries of Work/Collaboration

United States
France

Projects

Papers

Worden L, Wannier R, Archer H, Blumberg S, Kwan A, Sears D, Porco TC. (2024). COVID-19 Reproduction Numbers and Long COVID Prevalences in California State Prisons. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Hiatt RA, Worden L, Rehkopf D, Engmann N, Troester M, Witte JS, Balke K, Jackson C, Barlow J, Fenton SE, Gehlert S, Hammond RA, Kaplan G, Kornak J, Nishioka K, McKone T, Smith MT, Trasande L, Porco TC. (2023). A complex systems model of breast cancer etiology: The Paradigm II Model. PloS one, 18(5)

Blumberg S, Lu P, Kwan AT, Hoover CM, Lloyd-Smith JO, Sears D, Bertozzi SM, Worden L. (2022). Modeling scenarios for mitigating outbreaks in congregate settings. PLoS computational biology, 18(7)

Arzika AM, Maliki R, Abdou A, Mankara AK, Harouna AN, Cook C, Hinterwirth A, Worden L, Zhong L, Chen C, Ruder K, Zhou Z, Lebas E, O'Brien KS, Oldenburg CE, Le V, Arnold BF, Porco TC, Keenan JD, Lietman TM, Doan T. (2021). Gut resistome of preschool children after prolonged mass azithromycin distribution: a cluster-randomized trial. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

Blumberg S, Lu P, Hoover CM, Lloyd-Smith JO, Kwan AT, Sears D, Bertozzi SM, Worden L. (2021). Mitigating outbreaks in congregate settings by decreasing the size of the susceptible population. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Ackley SF, Pilewski S, Petrovic VS, Worden L, Murray E, Porco TC. (2020). Assessing the utility of a smart thermometer and mobile application as a surveillance tool for influenza and influenza-like illness. Health informatics journal

Doan T, Hinterwirth A, Worden L, Arzika AM, Maliki R, Chen C, Zhong L, Zhou Z, Acharya NR, Porco TC, Keenan JD, Lietman TM. (2020). Post-antibiotic Ocular Surface Microbiome in Children: A Cluster-Randomized Trial. Ophthalmology, 127(8)

Lalitha P, Prajna NV, Sikha M, Gunasekaran R, Hinterwirth A, Worden L, Chen C, Zhong L, Liu Z, Lietman TM, Seitzman GD, Doan T. (2020). Evaluation of Metagenomic Deep Sequencing as a Diagnostic Test for Infectious Keratitis. Ophthalmology

Doan T, Worden L, Hinterwirth A, Arzika AM, Maliki R, Abdou A, Zhong L, Chen C, Cook C, Lebas E, O'Brien KS, Oldenburg CE, Chow ED, Porco TC, Lipsitch M, Keenan JD, Lietman TM. (2020). Macrolide and Nonmacrolide Resistance with Mass Azithromycin Distribution. The New England journal of medicine, 383(20)

Worden L, Wannier R, Blumberg S, Ge AY, Rutherford GW, Porco TC. (2020). Estimation of effects of contact tracing and mask adoption on COVID-19 transmission in San Francisco: a modeling study. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Ackley SF, Lee RS, Worden L, Zwick E, Porco TC, Behr MA, Pepperell CS. (2019). Multiple exposures, reinfection and risk of progression to active tuberculosis. Royal Society open science, 6(3)

Johansson MA, Apfeldorf KM, Dobson S, Devita J, Buczak AL, Baugher B, Moniz LJ, Bagley T, Babin SM, Guven E, Yamana TK, Shaman J, Moschou T, Lothian N, Lane A, Osborne G, Jiang G, Brooks LC, Farrow DC, Hyun S, Tibshirani RJ, Rosenfeld R, Lessler J, Reich NG, Cummings DAT, Lauer SA, Moore SM, Clapham HE, Lowe R, Bailey TC, García-Díez M, Carvalho MS, Rodó X, Sardar T, Paul R, Ray EL, Sakrejda K, Brown AC, Meng X, Osoba O, Vardavas R, Manheim D, Moore M, Rao DM, Porco TC, Ackley S, Liu F, Worden L, Convertino M, Liu Y, Reddy A, Ortiz E, Rivero J, Brito H, Juarrero A, Johnson LR, Gramacy RB, Cohen JM, Mordecai EA, Murdock CC, Rohr JR, Ryan SJ, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Weikel DP, Jutla A, Khan R, Poultney M, Colwell RR, Rivera-García B, Barker CM, Bell JE, Biggerstaff M, Swerdlow D, Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L, Forshey BM, Trtanj J, Asher J, Clay M, Margolis HS, Hebbeler AM, George D, Chretien JP. (2019). An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(48)

Kelly JD, Worden L, Wannier SR, Hoff NA, Mukadi P, Sinai C, Ackley S, Chen X, Gao D, Selo B, Mossoko M, Okitolonda-Wemakoy E, Richardson ET, Rutherford GW, Lietman TM, Muyembe-Tamfum JJ, Rimoin AW, Porco TC. (2019). Projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 27, 2018. PLoS One, 14(3)

Grantz KH, Chabaari W, Samuel RK, Gershom B, Blum L, Worden L, Ackley S, Liu F, Lietman TM, Galvani AP, Prajna L, Porco TC. (2018). Spatial distribution of leprosy in India: an ecological study. Infectious diseases of poverty, 7(1)

Lietman TM, Worden L, Liu F, Porco TC. (2018). The distribution of district-level leprosy incidence in India is geometric-stable, consistent with subcriticality. Epidemics, (24)

Doan T, Hinterwirth A, Arzika AM, Cotter SY, Ray KJ, O'Brien KS, Zhong L, Chow ED, Zhou Z, Cummings SL, Fry D, Oldenburg CE, Worden L, Porco TC, Keenan JD, Lietman TM. (2018). Mass Azithromycin Distribution and Community Microbiome: A Cluster-Randomized Trial. Open forum infectious diseases, 5(8)

Worden L, Schwartz IB, Bianco S, Ackley SF, Lietman TM, Porco TC. (2017). Hamiltonian Analysis of Subcritical Stochastic Epidemic Dynamics. Computational and mathematical methods in medicine, (2017)

Deiner MS, Worden L, Rittel A, Ackley SF, Liu F, Blum L, Scott JC, Lietman TM, Porco TC. (2017). Short-term leprosy forecasting from an expert opinion survey. PLoS One, 12(8)

Worden L, Porco TC. (2017). Products of Compartmental Models in Epidemiology. Computational and mathematical methods in medicine, (2017)

Deiner MS, Worden L, Rittel A, Ackley SF, Liu F, Blum L, Scott JC, Lietman TM, Porco TC. (2017). Correction: Short-term leprosy forecasting from an expert opinion survey. PLoS One, 12(12)

Ackley SF, Hacker JK, Enanoria WTA, Worden L, Blumberg S, Porco TC, Zipprich J. (2018). Genotype-Specific Measles Transmissibility: A Branching Process Analysis. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 66(8)

Enanoria WT, Liu F, Zipprich J, Harriman K, Ackley S, Blumberg S, Worden L, Porco TC. (2016). The Effect of Contact Investigations and Public Health Interventions in the Control and Prevention of Measles Transmission: A Simulation Study. PLoS One, 11(12)

Enanoria WT, Worden L, Liu F, Gao D, Ackley S, Scott J, Deiner M, Mwebaze E, Ip W, Lietman TM, Porco TC. (2016). Correction: Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa. PLoS One, 11(6)

Brook CE, Beauclair R, Ngwenya O, Worden L, Ndeffo-Mbah M, Lietman TM, Satpathy SK, Galvani AP, Porco TC. (2015). Spatial heterogeneity in projected leprosy trends in India. Parasites & vectors, (8)

Enanoria WT, Worden L, Liu F, Gao D, Ackley S, Scott J, Deiner M, Mwebaze E, Ip W, Lietman TM, Porco TC. (2015). Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa. PLoS One, 10(10)

Blumberg S, Worden L, Enanoria W, Ackley S, Deiner M, Liu F, Gao D, Lietman T, Porco T. (2015). Assessing Measles Transmission in the United States Following a Large Outbreak in California. PLoS currents, (7)

Akhmetzhanov AR, Worden L, Dushoff J. (2013). Effects of mixing in threshold models of social behavior. Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics, 88(1)

Dushoff J, Worden L, Keymer J, Levin S. (2002). Metapopulations, community assembly, and scale invariance in aspect space. Theoretical population biology, 62(4)

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