My research leverages mathematical/computational modeling and data science to provide a quantitative framework to understand the key determinants of the epidemiology of infectious diseases and support public health decision-making.
He/him/his
United States
Singapore
Italy
China
Ventura PC, Dam Jeong Y, Litvinova M, Kummer AG, Iwami S, Yu H, Merler S, Vespignani A, Ejima K, Ajelli M. (2026). VIBES: A multiscale modeling approach integrating within-host and between-hosts dynamics in epidemics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 123(13)
Wilke ABB, Hill MD, Kummer AG, Vasquez C, Mutebi JP, Huo X, Li H, Chen J, Ruan S, Beier JC, Litvinova M, Byrne T, Ajelli M. (2026). Mosquito-borne disease among individuals experiencing homelessness in the USA: a literature review. Journal of pest science, 99(2)
Vasquez C, Multini LC, Mutebi JP, SeRine E, Hill MD, Litvinova M, Ajelli M, Wilke ABB. (2026). Spatiotemporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus populations in Miami-Dade County, Florida. PloS one, 21(4)
Mhade S, Bhosekar U, Hill MD, Sinclair S, Agrawal S, Guerrini J, Pletz K, Zou L, Koebcke A, Kummer AG, Ventura PC, Del Valle SY, Chinazzi M, Litvinova M, Vespignani A, Ajelli M. (2026). Mapping the landscape of individual-based models for respiratory pathogen transmission in the pandemic and post-pandemic era (2020-2024): A systematic review. Epidemics, (56)
Lucchini L, Marziano V, Trentini F, Chiavenna C, D'Agnese E, Offeddu V, Manica M, Poletti P, Balsamo D, Guzzetta G, Ajelli M, Melegaro A, Merler S. (2026). Implications for distancing measures on in-person school and work attendance from Italian post-pandemic social contact data. Communications medicine, 6(1)
Cai J, Wu Y, Liu H, Deng Z, Yi L, Lai L, Funk A, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2025). China's post-zero-COVID Omicron wave: A Bayesian analysis. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 122(48)
Harp RD, Holcomb KM, Retkute R, Prusokiene A, Prusokas A, Ertem Z, Ajelli M, Kummer AG, Litvinova M, Merler S, Piontti APY, Poletti P, Vespignani A, Wilke ABB, Zardini A, Smith KH, Armstrong P, DeFelice N, Keyel A, Shepard J, Smith R, Tyre A, Humphreys J, Cohnstaedt LW, Hosseini S, Scoglio C, Gorris ME, Barnard M, Moser SK, Spencer JA, McCarter MSJ, Lee C, Nolan MS, Barker CM, Staples JE, Nett RJ, Johansson MA. (2025). Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA. Parasites & vectors, 18(1)
Gozzi N, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Gioannini C, Rossi L, Ajelli M, Perra N, Vespignani A. (2025). Epydemix: An open-source Python package for epidemic modeling with integrated approximate Bayesian calibration. PLoS computational biology, 21(11)
Liang Y, You Q, Wang Q, Yang X, Zhong G, Dong K, Zhao Z, Liu N, Yan X, Lu W, Peng C, Zhou J, Lin J, Litvinova M, Jit M, Ajelli M, Yu H, Zhang J. (2025). Social contact patterns and their impact on the transmission of respiratory pathogens in rural China. Infectious Disease Modelling, 10(2)
Ejima K, Ajelli M, Singh A, Chua HK, Ponce L, Wang Y, Jeong YD, Iwami S, Shibuya K, Taniguchi K, Ohmagari N, Chia PY, Ong SWX, Tan KB, Lye DC, Young BE. (2025). Age- and vaccination status-dependent isolation guidelines based on simulation of SARS-CoV-2 Delta cases in Singapore. Communications medicine, 5(1)
Ejima K, Wang Y, Endo A, Murayama H, Goh YS, Cook AR, Jeong YD, Iwami S, Park H, Dickens BSL, Jin S, Lim JT, Chan CEZ, Chia PY, Young BE, Yang Y, Chio M, Lye DC, Ajelli M. (2025). Evaluating the effectiveness of international travel controls to identify MPXV-infected travelers: a simulation study. BMC medicine, 23(1)
Ajelli M, Muyembe JJ, Touré A, Diallo A, Litvinova M, Merler S, Mulangu S, Bagayoko A, Bah A, Bah I, Barry A, Barry F, Chérif M, Condé D, Diallo AA, Diallo F, Diakité M, Doré K, Mapan KA, Koundouno T, Onivogui PK, Lamah F, Maneno H, Nomou A, Sekouba K, Sani I, Soumah A, Sy MM, Gsell PS, Halloran ME, Henao-Restrepo AM, Fall IS, Ryan MJ, Salama P, Vespignani A, Longini IM Jr.. (2025). Vaccination Strategies for Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo: The WHO-Ebola Modeling Collaboration. International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases
Cai Y, Wang W, Yu L, Wang R, Sun GQ, Kummer AG, Ventura PC, Lv J, Ajelli M, Liu QH. (2025). Assessing the effectiveness of test-trace-isolate interventions using a multi-layered temporal network. Infectious Disease Modelling, 10(3)
Jeong YD, Ejima K, Kim KS, Iwanami S, Hart WS, Thompson RN, Jung IH, Iwami S, Ajelli M, Aihara K. (2025). A modeling study to define guidelines for antigen screening in schools and workplaces to mitigate COVID-19 outbreaks. Communications medicine, 5(1)
Chua HK, Singh A, Wang Y, Goh YS, Chan CEZ, Chavatte JM, Lin RVTP, Su YCF, Ajelli M, Chia PY, Ong SWX, Lye DC, Young BE, Ejima K. (2025). Defining the Critical Requisites for Accurate Simulation of SARS-CoV-2 Viral Dynamics: Patient Characteristics and Data Collection Protocol. Journal of medical virology, 97(1)
Liu H, Xu X, Deng X, Hu Z, Sun R, Zou J, Dong J, Wu Q, Chen X, Yi L, Cai J, Zhang J, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2024). Counterfactual analysis of the 2023 Omicron XBB wave in China. Infectious Disease Modelling, 9(1)
d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Marziano V, Zardini A, Manica M, Guzzetta G, Ajelli M, Petrone D, Del Manso M, Sacco C, Andrianou X, Bella A, Riccardo F, Pezzotti P, Poletti P, Merler S. (2024). Spatial spread of COVID-19 during the early pandemic phase in Italy. BMC infectious diseases, 24(1)
Mathis SM, Webber AE, León TM, Murray EL, Sun M, White LA, Brooks LC, Green A, Hu AJ, Rosenfeld R, Shemetov D, Tibshirani RJ, McDonald DJ, Kandula S, Pei S, Yaari R, Yamana TK, Shaman J, Agarwal P, Balusu S, Gururajan G, Kamarthi H, Prakash BA, Raman R, Zhao Z, Rodríguez A, Meiyappan A, Omar S, Baccam P, Gurung HL, Suchoski BT, Stage SA, Ajelli M, Kummer AG, Litvinova M, Ventura PC, Wadsworth S, Niemi J, Carcelen E, Hill AL, Loo SL, McKee CD, Sato K, Smith C, Truelove S, Jung SM, Lemaitre JC, Lessler J, McAndrew T, Ye W, Bosse N, Hlavacek WS, Lin YT, Mallela A, Gibson GC, Chen Y, Lamm SM, Lee J, Posner RG, Perofsky AC, Viboud C, Clemente L, Lu F, Meyer AG, Santillana M, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastore Y Piontti A, Vespignani A, Xiong X, Ben-Nun M, Riley P, Turtle J, Hulme-Lowe C, Jessa S, Nagraj VP, Turner SD, Williams D, Basu A, Drake JM, Fox SJ, Suez E, Cojocaru MG, Thommes EW, Cramer EY, Gerding A, Stark A, Ray EL, Reich NG, Shandross L, Wattanachit N, Wang Y, Zorn MW, Aawar MA, Srivastava A, Meyers LA, Adiga A, Hurt B, Kaur G, Lewis BL, Marathe M, Venkatramanan S, Butler P, Farabow A, Ramakrishnan N, Muralidhar N, Reed C, Biggerstaff M, Borchering RK. (2024). Title evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations. Nature communications, 15(1)
Ventura PC, Kummer AG, Wilke ABB, Chitturi J, Hill MD, Vasquez C, Unlu I, Mutebi JP, Kluh S, Vetrone S, Damian D, Townsend J, Litvinova M, Ajelli M. (2024). Forecasting the relative abundance of Aedes vector populations to enhance situational awareness for mosquito control operations. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 18(11)
Bizzotto A, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Del Manso M, Mateo Urdiales A, Petrone D, Cannone A, Sacco C, Poletti P, Manica M, Zardini A, Trentini F, Fabiani M, Bella A, Riccardo F, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2024). Increasing situational awareness through nowcasting of the reproduction number. Frontiers in public health, (12)
Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Mammone A, Siddu A, Ferraro F, Caraglia A, Maraglino F, Rezza G, Vespignani A, Longini I, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2024). The decline of the 2022 Italian mpox epidemic: Role of behavior changes and control strategies. Nature communications, 15(1)
Liu H, Cai J, Zhou J, Xu X, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2024). Assessing the impact of interventions on the major Omicron BA.2 outbreak in spring 2022 in Shanghai. Infectious Disease Modelling, 9(2)
Liu H, Xu X, Deng X, Hu Z, Sun R, Zou J, Dong J, Wu Q, Chen X, Yi L, Cai J, Zhang J, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2024). Corrigendum to "Counterfactual analysis of the 2023 Omicron XBB wave in China" [Infect. Dis. Model. 9 (2024) 195-203]. Infectious Disease Modelling, 9(4)
Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Y Piontti AP, Mu K, Gozzi N, Ajelli M, Perra N, Vespignani A. (2024). A multiscale modeling framework for Scenario Modeling: Characterizing the heterogeneity of the COVID-19 epidemic in the US. Epidemics, (47)
Gozzi N, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastore Y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Vespignani A, Perra N. (2024). Real-time estimates of the emergence and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: A modeling approach. Epidemics, (49)
Kummer AG, Zhang J, Jiang C, Litvinova M, Ventura PC, Garcia MA, Vespignani A, Wu H, Yu H, Ajelli M. (2024). Evaluating Seasonal Variations in Human Contact Patterns and Their Impact on the Transmission of Respiratory Infectious Diseases. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 18(5)
Zardini A, Menegale F, Gobbi A, Manica M, Guzzetta G, d'Andrea V, Marziano V, Trentini F, Montarsi F, Caputo B, Solimini A, Marques-Toledo C, Wilke ABB, Rosà R, Marini G, Arnoldi D, Pastore Y Piontti A, Pugliese A, Capelli G, Della Torre A, Teixeira MM, Beier JC, Rizzoli A, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Merler S, Poletti P. (2024). Estimating the potential risk of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: a modelling study. The Lancet. Planetary health, 8(1)
Zhang K, Xia Z, Huang S, Sun GQ, Lv J, Ajelli M, Ejima K, Liu QH. (2023). Evaluating the impact of test-trace-isolate for COVID-19 management and alternative strategies. PLoS computational biology, 19(9)
Menegale F, Manica M, Zardini A, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Merler S. (2023). Evaluation of Waning of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine-Induced Immunity: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. JAMA network open, 6(5)
Guzzetta G, Ajelli M, Miglietta A, Fazio C, Neri A, Merler S, Rezza G, Stefanelli P. (2023). Evaluating the effect of targeted strategies as control tools for hypervirulent meningococcal C outbreaks: a case study from Tuscany, Italy, 2015 to 2016. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 28(19)
Wang Q, Wang W, Winter AK, Zhan Z, Ajelli M, Trentini F, Wang L, Li F, Yang J, Xiang X, Liao Q, Zhou J, Guo J, Yan X, Liu N, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT, Yu H. (2023). Long-term measles antibody profiles following different vaccine schedules in China, a longitudinal study. Nature communications, 14(1)
Wang Q, Wang W, Winter AK, Zhan Z, Ajelli M, Trentini F, Wang L, Li F, Yang J, Xiang X, Liao Q, Zhou J, Guo J, Yan X, Liu N, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT, Yu H. (2023). Publisher Correction: Long-term measles antibody profiles following different vaccine schedules in China, a longitudinal study. Nature communications, 14(1)
Luo K, Wu Y, Wang Y, Liu Z, Yi L, Zhao S, Yan X, Yang H, Sun K, Ajelli M, Hu S, Yu H. (2023). Transmission Dynamics and Epidemiological Characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant - Hunan Province, China, 2021. China CDC weekly, 5(3)
Pangallo M, Aleta A, Del Rio-Chanona RM, Pichler A, Martín-Corral D, Chinazzi M, Lafond F, Ajelli M, Moro E, Moreno Y, Vespignani A, Farmer JD. (2023). The unequal effects of the health-economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature human behaviour
Zhang J, Tan S, Peng C, Xu X, Wang M, Lu W, Wu Y, Sai B, Cai M, Kummer AG, Chen Z, Zou J, Li W, Zheng W, Liang Y, Zhao Y, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Lu X, Yu H. (2023). Heterogeneous changes in mobility in response to the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 outbreak in Shanghai. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 120(42)
Mathis SM, Webber AE, León TM, Murray EL, Sun M, White LA, Brooks LC, Green A, Hu AJ, McDonald DJ, Rosenfeld R, Shemetov D, Tibshirani RJ, Kandula S, Pei S, Shaman J, Yaari R, Yamana TK, Agarwal P, Balusu S, Gururajan G, Kamarthi H, Prakash BA, Raman R, Rodríguez A, Zhao Z, Meiyappan A, Omar S, Baccam P, Gurung HL, Stage SA, Suchoski BT, Ajelli M, Kummer AG, Litvinova M, Ventura PC, Wadsworth S, Niemi J, Carcelen E, Hill AL, Jung SM, Lemaitre JC, Lessler J, Loo SL, McKee CD, Sato K, Smith C, Truelove S, McAndrew T, Ye W, Bosse N, Hlavacek WS, Lin YT, Mallela A, Chen Y, Lamm SM, Lee J, Posner RG, Perofsky AC, Viboud C, Clemente L, Lu F, Meyer AG, Santillana M, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Piontti APY, Vespignani A, Xiong X, Ben-Nun M, Riley P, Turtle J, Hulme-Lowe C, Jessa S, Nagraj VP, Turner SD, Williams D, Basu A, Drake JM, Fox SJ, Gibson GC, Suez E, Thommes EW, Cojocaru MG, Cramer EY, Gerding A, Stark A, Ray EL, Reich NG, Shandross L, Wattanachit N, Wang Y, Zorn MW, Al Aawar M, Srivastava A, Meyers LA, Adiga A, Hurt B, Kaur G, Lewis BL, Marathe M, Venkatramanan S, Butler P, Farabow A, Muralidhar N, Ramakrishnan N, Reed C, Biggerstaff M, Borchering RK. (2023). Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
Galli M, Zardini A, Gamshie WN, Santini S, Tsegaye A, Trentini F, Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Manica M, d'Andrea V, Putoto G, Manenti F, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Merler S. (2023). Priority age targets for COVID-19 vaccination in Ethiopia under limited vaccine supply. Scientific reports, 13(1)
Wilke ABB, Damian D, Litvinova M, Byrne T, Zardini A, Poletti P, Merler S, Mutebi JP, Townsend J, Ajelli M. (2023). Spatiotemporal distribution of vector mosquito species and areas at risk for arbovirus transmission in Maricopa County, Arizona. Acta tropica, (240)
Molina Grané C, Mancuso P, Vicentini M, Venturelli F, Djuric O, Manica M, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Zardini A, d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Bisaccia E, Larosa E, Cilloni S, Cassinadri MT, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Rossi PG, Merler S, Poletti P. (2023). SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns in educational settings during the Alpha wave in Reggio-Emilia, Italy. Epidemics, (44)
Liang Y, Peng C, You Q, Litvinova M, Ajelli M, Zhang J, Yu H. (2023). Estimating Changes in Contact Patterns in China Over the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Implications for SARS-CoV-2 Spread - Four Cities, China, 2020. China CDC weekly, 5(5)
Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Menegale F, Sacco C, Petrone D, Mateo Urdiales A, Del Manso M, Bella A, Fabiani M, Vescio MF, Riccardo F, Poletti P, Manica M, Zardini A, d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Stefanelli P, Rezza G, Palamara AT, Brusaferro S, Ajelli M, Pezzotti P, Merler S. (2023). Estimating SARS-CoV-2 infections and associated changes in COVID-19 severity and fatality. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 17(8)
Stefanelli P, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Mammone A, Sane Schepisi M, Poletti P, Molina Grané C, Manica M, Del Manso M, Andrianou X, Ajelli M, Rezza G, Brusaferro S, Merler S, . (2022). Co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Gamma variants in Italy, February and March 2021. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 27(5)
Calabrò GE, Boccalini S, Panatto D, Rizzo C, Di Pietro ML, Abreha FM, Ajelli M, Amicizia D, Bechini A, Giacchetta I, Lai PL, Merler S, Primieri C, Trentini F, Violi S, Bonanni P, de Waure C. (2022). The New Quadrivalent Adjuvanted Influenza Vaccine for the Italian Elderly: A Health Technology Assessment. International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(7)
Liu H, Zhang J, Cai J, Deng X, Peng C, Chen X, Yang J, Wu Q, Chen X, Chen Z, Zheng W, Viboud C, Zhang W, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2022). Investigating vaccine-induced immunity and its effect in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in China. BMC medicine, 20(1)
Jeong YD, Ejima K, Kim KS, Joohyeon W, Iwanami S, Fujita Y, Jung IH, Shibuya K, Iwami S, Bento AI, Ajelli M. (2022). Designing isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients utilizing rapid antigen tests: a simulation study using viral dynamics models. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
Gozzi N, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastore Y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Perra N, Vespignani A. (2022). Anatomy of the first six months of COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy. PLoS computational biology, 18(5)
Manica M, Poletti P, Deandrea S, Mosconi G, Ancarani C, Lodola S, Guzzetta G, d'Andrea V, Marziano V, Zardini A, Trentini F, Odone A, Tirani M, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2022). Estimating SARS-CoV-2 transmission in educational settings: A retrospective cohort study. Influenza and other respiratory viruses
Jeong YD, Ejima K, Kim KS, Joohyeon W, Iwanami S, Fujita Y, Jung IH, Aihara K, Shibuya K, Iwami S, Bento AI, Ajelli M. (2022). Designing isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients with rapid antigen tests. Nature communications, 13(1)
Trentini F, Manna A, Balbo N, Marziano V, Guzzetta G, O'Dell S, Kummer AG, Litvinova M, Merler S, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Melegaro A. (2022). Investigating the relationship between interventions, contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. Epidemics, (40)
Manica M, Litvinova M, De Bellis A, Guzzetta G, Mancuso P, Vicentini M, Venturelli F, Bisaccia E, Bento AI, Poletti P, Marziano V, Zardini A, d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Bella A, Riccardo F, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Giorgi Rossi P, Merler S, . (2022). Estimation of the incubation period and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants from contact tracing data. Epidemiology and infection, (151)
Aleta A, Martín-Corral D, Bakker MA, Pastore Y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Litvinova M, Chinazzi M, Dean NE, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Pentland A, Vespignani A, Moreno Y, Moro E. (2022). Quantifying the importance and location of SARS-CoV-2 transmission events in large metropolitan areas. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(26)
Wang Y, Sun K, Feng Z, Yi L, Wu Y, Liu H, Wang Q, Ajelli M, Viboud C, Yu H. (2022). Assessing the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in China in the era of highly transmissible variants. BMC medicine, 20(1)
Liu QH, Zhang J, Peng C, Litvinova M, Huang S, Poletti P, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Zhou T, Viboud C, Bento AI, Lv J, Vespignani A, Merler S, Yu H, Ajelli M. (2022). Model-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19. Nature communications, 13(1)
Chen Z, Deng X, Fang L, Sun K, Wu Y, Che T, Zou J, Cai J, Liu H, Wang Y, Wang T, Tian Y, Zheng N, Yan X, Sun R, Xu X, Zhou X, Ge S, Liang Y, Yi L, Yang J, Zhang J, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2022). Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of the outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Shanghai, China: A descriptive study. The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, (29)
Cai J, Deng X, Yang J, Sun K, Liu H, Chen Z, Peng C, Chen X, Wu Q, Zou J, Sun R, Zheng W, Zhao Z, Lu W, Liang Y, Zhou X, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2022). Modeling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China. Nature medicine
Manica M, De Bellis A, Guzzetta G, Mancuso P, Vicentini M, Venturelli F, Zerbini A, Bisaccia E, Litvinova M, Menegale F, Molina Grané C, Poletti P, Marziano V, Zardini A, d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Bella A, Riccardo F, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Giorgi Rossi P, Merler S, . (2022). Intrinsic generation time of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant: An observational study of household transmission. The Lancet regional health. Europe, (19)
Chen X, Yan X, Sun K, Zheng N, Sun R, Zhou J, Deng X, Zhuang T, Cai J, Zhang J, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2022). Estimation of disease burden and clinical severity of COVID-19 caused by Omicron BA.2 in Shanghai, February-June 2022. Emerging microbes & infections
Trentini F, Pariani E, Bella A, Diurno G, Crottogini L, Rizzo C, Merler S, Ajelli M. (2022). Characterizing the transmission patterns of seasonal influenza in Italy: lessons from the last decade. BMC public health, 22(1)
Cai J, Yang J, Deng X, Peng C, Chen X, Wu Q, Liu H, Zhang J, Zheng W, Zou J, Zhao Z, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2022). Assessing the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out in China. Emerging microbes & infections
Stefanelli P, Trentini F, Petrone D, Mammone A, Ambrosio L, Manica M, Guzzetta G, d'Andrea V, Marziano V, Zardini A, Molina Grane' C, Ajelli M, Di Martino A, Riccardo F, Bella A, Sane Schepisi M, Maraglino F, Poletti P, Palamara AT, Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Pezzotti P, Merler S, , , , . (2022). Tracking the progressive spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Italy, December 2021 to January 2022. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 27(45)
Poletti P, Tirani M, Cereda D, Guzzetta G, Trentini F, Marziano V, Toso C, Piatti A, Piccarreta R, Melegaro A, Andreassi A, Gramegna M, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2021). Seroprevalence of and Risk Factors Associated With SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Health Care Workers During the Early COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy. JAMA network open, 4(7)
Hu S, Wang W, Wang Y, Litvinova M, Luo K, Ren L, Sun Q, Chen X, Zeng G, Li J, Liang L, Deng Z, Zheng W, Li M, Yang H, Guo J, Wang K, Chen X, Liu Z, Yan H, Shi H, Chen Z, Zhou Y, Sun K, Vespignani A, Viboud C, Gao L, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Author Correction: Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China. Nature communications, 12(1)
Poletti P, Tirani M, Cereda D, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Sabatino G, Marziano V, Castrofino A, Grosso F, Del Castillo G, Piccarreta R, Andreassi A, Melegaro A, Gramegna M, Ajelli M, Merler S, . (2021). Association of Age With Likelihood of Developing Symptoms and Critical Disease Among Close Contacts Exposed to Patients With Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Italy. JAMA network open, 4(3)
Jeong YD, Ejima K, Kim KS, Iwanami S, Bento AI, Fujita Y, Jung IH, Aihara K, Watashi K, Miyazaki T, Wakita T, Iwami S, Ajelli M. (2021). Revisiting the guidelines for ending isolation for COVID-19 patients. eLife, (10)
Manica M, Guzzetta G, Riccardo F, Valenti A, Poletti P, Marziano V, Trentini F, Andrianou X, Mateo-Urdiales A, Del Manso M, Fabiani M, Vescio MF, Spuri M, Petrone D, Bella A, Iavicoli S, Ajelli M, Brusaferro S, Pezzotti P, Merler S. (2021). Impact of tiered restrictions on human activities and the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy. Nature communications, 12(1)
Davis JT, Chinazzi M, Perra N, Mu K, Piontti APY, Ajelli M, Dean NE, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Rossi L, Sun K, Xiong X, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Viboud C, Vespignani A. (2021). Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave in Europe and the United States. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
Mousa A, Winskill P, Watson OJ, Ratmann O, Monod M, Ajelli M, Diallo A, Dodd PJ, Grijalva CG, Kiti MC, Krishnan A, Kumar R, Kumar S, Kwok KO, Lanata CF, de Waroux OLP, Leung K, Mahikul W, Melegaro A, Morrow CD, Mossong J, Neal EF, Nokes DJ, Pan-Ngum W, Potter GE, Russell FM, Saha S, Sugimoto JD, Wei WI, Wood RR, Wu J, Zhang J, Walker P, Whittaker C. (2021). Social contact patterns and implications for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review and meta-analysis of contact surveys. eLife, (10)
Davis JT, Chinazzi M, Perra N, Mu K, Pastore Y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Dean NE, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Rossi L, Sun K, Xiong X, Longini IM Jr., Halloran ME, Viboud C, Vespignani A. (2021). Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave. Nature
Liu H, Zhang J, Cai J, Deng X, Peng C, Chen X, Yang J, Wu Q, Chen Z, Zheng W, Viboud C, Zhang W, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Herd immunity induced by COVID-19 vaccination programs to suppress epidemics caused by SARS-CoV-2 wild type and variants in China. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
Yang J, Marziano V, Deng X, Guzzetta G, Zhang J, Trentini F, Cai J, Poletti P, Zheng W, Wang W, Wu Q, Zhao Z, Dong K, Zhong G, Viboud C, Merler S, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021. Nature human behaviour
Cereda D, Manica M, Tirani M, Rovida F, Demicheli V, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Piccarreta R, Barone A, Magoni M, Deandrea S, Diurno G, Lombardo M, Faccini M, Pan A, Bruno R, Pariani E, Grasselli G, Piatti A, Gramegna M, Baldanti F, Melegaro A, Merler S. (2021). The early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy. Epidemics, (37)
Zardini A, Galli M, Tirani M, Cereda D, Manica M, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Piccarreta R, Melegaro A, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Merler S. (2021). A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate COVID-19 burden. Epidemics, (37)
Manica M, Pancheri S, Poletti P, Giovanazzi G, Guzzetta G, Trentini F, Marziano V, Ajelli M, Grazia Zuccali M, Benetollo PP, Merler S, Ferro A. (2021). The risk of symptomatic infection during a second COVID-19 wave, in SARS-CoV-2 seropositive individuals. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
Trentini F, Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Tirani M, Cereda D, Poletti P, Piccarreta R, Barone A, Preziosi G, Arduini F, Valle PGD, Zanella A, Grosso F, Castillo G, Castrofino A, Grasselli G, Melegaro A, Piatti A, Andreassi A, Gramegna M, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2021). The pressure on healthcare system and intensive care utilization during the COVID-19 outbreak in the Lombardy region: a retrospective observational study on 43,538 hospitalized patients. American journal of epidemiology
Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Mammone A, Riccardo F, Poletti P, Trentini F, Manica M, Siddu A, Bella A, Stefanelli P, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Merler S. (2021). The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus. Nature communications, 12(1)
Mistry D, Litvinova M, Pastore Y Piontti A, Chinazzi M, Fumanelli L, Gomes MFC, Haque SA, Liu QH, Mu K, Xiong X, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Merler S, Ajelli M, Vespignani A. (2021). Inferring high-resolution human mixing patterns for disease modeling. Nature communications, 12(1)
Yang J, Zheng W, Shi H, Yan X, Dong K, You Q, Zhong G, Gong H, Chen Z, Jit M, Viboud C, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Who should be prioritized for COVID-19 vaccination in China? A descriptive study. BMC medicine, 19(1)
Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Rondinone BM, Boccuni F, Riccardo F, Bella A, Poletti P, Trentini F, Pezzotti P, Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Iavicoli S, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2021). Retrospective analysis of the Italian exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(4)
Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Galli M, Zardini A, Manenti F, Putoto G, Marziano V, Gamshie WN, Tsegaye A, Greblo A, Melegaro A, Ajelli M, Merler S, Poletti P. (2021). Modeling the interplay between demography, social contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the South West Shewa Zone of Oromia Region, Ethiopia. BMC medicine, 19(1)
Hu S, Wang W, Wang Y, Litvinova M, Luo K, Ren L, Sun Q, Chen X, Zeng G, Li J, Liang L, Deng Z, Zheng W, Li M, Yang H, Guo J, Wang K, Chen X, Liu Z, Yan H, Shi H, Chen Z, Zhou Y, Sun K, Vespignani A, Viboud C, Gao L, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China. Nature communications, 12(1)
Yang J, Marziano V, Deng X, Guzzetta G, Zhang J, Trentini F, Cai J, Poletti P, Zheng W, Wang W, Wu Q, Zhao Z, Dong K, Zhong G, Viboud C, Merler S, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Can a COVID-19 vaccination program guarantee the return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle?. Research square
Hu S, Wang W, Wang Y, Litvinova M, Luo K, Ren L, Sun Q, Chen X, Zeng G, Li J, Liang L, Deng Z, Zheng W, Li M, Yang H, Guo J, Wang K, Chen X, Liu Z, Yan H, Shi H, Chen Z, Zhou Y, Sun K, Vespignani A, Viboud C, Gao L, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Author Correction: Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China. Nature communications, 12(1)
Chen X, Chen Z, Azman AS, Deng X, Sun R, Zhao Z, Zheng N, Chen X, Lu W, Zhuang T, Yang J, Viboud C, Ajelli M, Leung DT, Yu H. (2021). Serological evidence of human infection with SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis. The Lancet. Global health
Yang J, Marziano V, Deng X, Guzzetta G, Zhang J, Trentini F, Cai J, Poletti P, Zheng W, Wang W, Wu Q, Zhao Z, Dong K, Zhong G, Viboud C, Merler S, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). To what extent do we need to rely on non-pharmaceutical interventions while COVID-19 vaccines roll out in 2021?. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
Han S, Cai J, Yang J, Zhang J, Wu Q, Zheng W, Shi H, Ajelli M, Zhou XH, Yu H. (2021). Time-varying optimization of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the context of limited vaccination capacity. Nature communications, 12(1)
Zhang J, Litvinova M, Liang Y, Zheng W, Shi H, Vespignani A, Viboud C, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). The impact of relaxing interventions on human contact patterns and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China. Science advances, 7(19)
Poletti P, Tirani M, Cereda D, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Buoro S, Riboli S, Crottogini L, Piccarreta R, Piatti A, Grasselli G, Melegaro A, Gramegna M, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2020). Age-specific SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality ratio and associated risk factors, Italy, February to April 2020. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 25(31)
Liu QH, Bento AI, Yang K, Zhang H, Yang X, Merler S, Vespignani A, Lv J, Yu H, Zhang W, Zhou T, Ajelli M. (2020). The COVID-19 outbreak in Sichuan, China: Epidemiology and impact of interventions. PLoS computational biology, 16(12)
Riccardo F, Ajelli M, Andrianou XD, Bella A, Del Manso M, Fabiani M, Bellino S, Boros S, Urdiales AM, Marziano V, Rota MC, Filia A, D'Ancona F, Siddu A, Punzo O, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Stefanelli P, Castrucci MR, Ciervo A, Di Benedetto C, Tallon M, Piccioli A, Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Merler S, Pezzotti P, . (2020). Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases and estimates of the reproductive numbers 1 month into the epidemic, Italy, 28 January to 31 March 2020. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 25(49)
Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Ajelli M, Trentini F, Marziano V, Cereda D, Tirani M, Diurno G, Bodina A, Barone A, Crottogini L, Gramegna M, Melegaro A, Merler S. (2020). Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 25(12)
Zhang J, Litvinova M, Liang Y, Wang Y, Wang W, Zhao S, Wu Q, Merler S, Viboud C, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2020). Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Science (New York, N.Y.)
Yang J, Chen X, Deng X, Chen Z, Gong H, Yan H, Wu Q, Shi H, Lai S, Ajelli M, Viboud C, Yu PH. (2020). Disease burden and clinical severity of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. Nature communications, 11(1)
Sun K, Wang W, Gao L, Wang Y, Luo K, Ren L, Zhan Z, Chen X, Zhao S, Huang Y, Sun Q, Liu Z, Litvinova M, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Viboud C, Yu H. (2020). Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2. Science (New York, N.Y.)
Zhang J, Litvinova M, Wang W, Wang Y, Deng X, Chen X, Li M, Zheng W, Yi L, Chen X, Wu Q, Liang Y, Wang X, Yang J, Sun K, Longini IM Jr., Halloran ME, Wu P, Cowling BJ, Merler S, Viboud C, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2020). Evolving epidemiology of novel coronavirus diseases 2019 and possible interruption of local transmission outside Hubei Province in China: a descriptive and modeling study. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
Guzzetta G, Riccardo F, Marziano V, Poletti P, Trentini F, Bella A, Andrianou X, Del Manso M, Fabiani M, Bellino S, Boros S, Urdiales AM, Vescio MF, Piccioli A, , Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2020). Impact of a Nationwide Lockdown on SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility, Italy. Emerging infectious diseases, 27(1)
Zhang J, Litvinova M, Liang Y, Wang Y, Wang W, Zhao S, Wu Q, Merler S, Viboud C, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2020). Age profile of susceptibility, mixing, and social distancing shape the dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
Aleta A, Martin-Corral D, Pastore Y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Litvinova M, Chinazzi M, Dean NE, Halloran ME, Longini IM, Merler S, Pentland A, Vespignani A, Moro E, Moreno Y. (2020). Modeling the impact of social distancing, testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second-wave scenarios of the COVID-19 epidemic. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
Wang W, Wu Q, Yang J, Dong K, Chen X, Bai X, Chen X, Chen Z, Viboud C, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2020). Global, regional, and national estimates of target population sizes for covid-19 vaccination: descriptive study. BMJ (Clinical research ed.), (371)
Deng X, Yang J, Wang W, Wang X, Zhou J, Chen Z, Li J, Chen Y, Yan H, Zhang J, Zhang Y, Wang Y, Qiu Q, Gong H, Wei X, Wang L, Sun K, Wu P, Ajelli M, Cowling BJ, Viboud C, Yu H. (2020). Case fatality risk of the first pandemic wave of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Pastore Y Piontti A, Rossi L, Sun K, Viboud C, Xiong X, Yu H, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Vespignani A. (2020). The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
Yang J, Gong H, Chen X, Chen Z, Deng X, Qian M, Hou Z, Ajelli M, Viboud C, Yu H. (2020). Health-seeking behaviors of patients with acute respiratory infections during the outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Wuhan, China. Influenza and other respiratory viruses
Brett T, Ajelli M, Liu QH, Krauland MG, Grefenstette JJ, van Panhuis WG, Vespignani A, Drake JM, Rohani P. (2020). Detecting critical slowing down in high-dimensional epidemiological systems. PLoS computational biology, 16(3)
Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Pastore Y Piontti A, Mu K, Rossi L, Sun K, Viboud C, Xiong X, Yu H, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Vespignani A. (2020). The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science (New York, N.Y.), 368(6489)
Davis JT, Chinazzi M, Perra N, Mu K, Piontti APY, Ajelli M, Dean NE, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Rossi L, Sun K, Xiong X, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Viboud C, Vespignani A. (2020). Estimating the establishment of local transmission and the cryptic phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
Deng X, Yang J, Wang W, Wang X, Zhou J, Chen Z, Li J, Chen Y, Yan H, Zhang J, Zhang Y, Wang Y, Qiu Q, Gong H, Wei X, Wang L, Sun K, Wu P, Ajelli M, Cowling BJ, Viboud C, Yu H. (2020). Case fatality risk of novel coronavirus diseases 2019 in China. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
Aleta A, Martín-Corral D, Pastore Y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Litvinova M, Chinazzi M, Dean NE, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Merler S, Pentland A, Vespignani A, Moro E, Moreno Y. (2020). Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19. Nature human behaviour
Zhang J, Litvinova M, Wang W, Wang Y, Deng X, Chen X, Li M, Zheng W, Yi L, Chen X, Wu Q, Liang Y, Wang X, Yang J, Sun K, Longini IM Jr., Halloran ME, Wu P, Cowling BJ, Merler S, Viboud C, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2020). Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study. The Lancet. Infectious diseases
Litvinova M, Liu QH, Kulikov ES, Ajelli M. (2019). Reactive school closure weakens the network of social interactions and reduces the spread of influenza. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(27)
Marziano V, Poletti P, Trentini F, Melegaro A, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2019). Parental vaccination to reduce measles immunity gaps in Italy. eLife, (8)
Liu QH, Ajelli M, Aleta A, Merler S, Moreno Y, Vespignani A. (2018). Measurability of the epidemic reproduction number in data-driven contact networks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(50)
Viboud C, Sun K, Gaffey R, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Merler S, Zhang Q, Chowell G, Simonsen L, Vespignani A, . (2018). The RAPIDD ebola forecasting challenge: Synthesis and lessons learnt. Epidemics, (22)
Ajelli M, Zhang Q, Sun K, Merler S, Fumanelli L, Chowell G, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Vespignani A. (2018). The RAPIDD Ebola forecasting challenge: Model description and synthetic data generation. Epidemics, (22)
Ajelli M, Litvinova M. (2017). Estimating contact patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases in Russia. Journal of theoretical biology, (419)
Merler S, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Parlamento S, Pastore Y Piontti A, Dean NE, Putoto G, Carraro D, Longini IM Jr., Halloran ME, Vespignani A. (2016). Containing Ebola at the Source with Ring Vaccination. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 10(11)
Ajelli M, Merler S, Fumanelli L, Pastore Y Piontti A, Dean NE, Longini IM Jr., Halloran ME, Vespignani A. (2016). Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis. BMC medicine, 14(1)
Fumanelli L, Ajelli M, Merler S, Ferguson NM, Cauchemez S. (2015). Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics. PLoS computational biology, 12(1)
Marziano V, Poletti P, Guzzetta G, Ajelli M, Manfredi P, Merler S. (2015). The impact of demographic changes on the epidemiology of herpes zoster: Spain as a case study. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 282(1804)
Merler S, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Gomes MF, Piontti AP, Rossi L, Chao DL, Longini IM Jr., Halloran ME, Vespignani A. (2015). Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 15(2)
Guzzetta G, Ajelli M, Yang Z, Mukasa LN, Patil N, Bates JH, Kirschner DE, Merler S. (2015). Effectiveness of contact investigations for tuberculosis control in Arkansas. Journal of theoretical biology, (380)
Ajelli M, Poletti P, Melegaro A, Merler S. (2014). The role of different social contexts in shaping influenza transmission during the 2009 pandemic. Scientific reports, (4)
Merler S, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Vespignani A. (2013). Containing the accidental laboratory escape of potential pandemic influenza viruses. BMC medicine, (11)
Poletti P, Melegaro A, Ajelli M, Del Fava E, Guzzetta G, Faustini L, Scalia Tomba G, Lopalco P, Rizzo C, Merler S, Manfredi P. (2013). Perspectives on the impact of varicella immunization on herpes zoster. A model-based evaluation from three European countries. PloS one, 8(4)
Merler S, Ajelli M, Pugliese A, Ferguson NM. (2011). Determinants of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Europe: implications for real-time modelling. PLoS computational biology, 7(9)
Guzzetta G, Ajelli M, Yang Z, Merler S, Furlanello C, Kirschner D. (2011). Modeling socio-demography to capture tuberculosis transmission dynamics in a low burden setting. Journal of theoretical biology, (289)
Ajelli M, Gonçalves B, Balcan D, Colizza V, Hu H, Ramasco JJ, Merler S, Vespignani A. (2010). Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models. BMC infectious diseases, (10)
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