Hadley L, Ben Miled S, Clapham HE, Djaafara BA, Dyson L, Funk S, Gog JR, Heesterbeek H, Hill EM, Howerton E, Isham V, Kebir A, Keeling M, Kissler SM, Lessler J, Leung K, McBryde E, McCaw JM, Mercado CEG, Mollison D, Thumbi SM, Pan-Ngum W, Pellis L, Pérez-Reche FJ, Plank MJ, Thompson RN, Tran-Kiem C. (2026). How understanding the diversity of perspectives and systems in governments can increase the impact of scientific research. Communications health, 1(1)
Prosser NS, Hill EM, Gow L, Cavallaro M, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ, Kaler J, Ferguson E, Green MJ. (2025). Descriptive analysis of national bovine viral diarrhoea test data in England (2016-2023). The Veterinary record
Hart WS, Hurrell JW, Kaye AR, Chand M, Keeling MJ, Thompson RN. (2025). Climate variability amplifies the need for vector-borne disease outbreak preparedness. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 122(34)
Doyle NJ, Bonnet G, Keeling MJ, Tildesley MJ, Edmunds WJ. (2025). A scoping review and taxonomy of epidemiological-macroeconomic models for livestock diseases. Preventive veterinary medicine, (245)
Prosser NS, Ferguson E, Kaler J, Hill EM, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ, Green MJ. (2025). Between-country differences in the psychosocial profiles of British cattle farmers. The Veterinary record
Higgins D, Looker J, Sunnucks R, Carruthers J, Finnie T, Keeling MJ, Hill EM. (2025). Introducing a framework for within-host dynamics and mutations modelling of H5N1 influenza infection in humans. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 22(228)
Carson J, Keeling M, Ribeca P, Didelot X. (2025). Incorporating Epidemiological Data into the Genomic Analysis of Partially Sampled Infectious Disease Outbreaks. Molecular biology and evolution, 42(4)
Keeling MJ, Hill EM, Petrou S, Tran PB, Png ME, Staniszewska S, Clark C, Hassel K, Stowe J, Andrews N. (2025). Cost-effectiveness of routine COVID-19 adult vaccination programmes in England. Vaccine, (53)
Keeling MJ, Dyson L. (2024). A retrospective assessment of forecasting the peak of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 wave in England. PLoS computational biology, 20(9)
Davis EL, Hollingsworth TD, Keeling MJ. (2024). An analytically tractable, age-structured model of the impact of vector control on mosquito-transmitted infections. PLoS computational biology, 20(3)
Cant S, Shanks GD, Keeling MJ, Penman BS. (2024). Extreme mortality during a historical measles outbreak on Rotuma is consistent with measles immunosuppression. Epidemiology and infection, (152)
Hill EM, Prosser NS, Brown PE, Ferguson E, Green MJ, Kaler J, Keeling MJ, Tildesley MJ. (2024). Corrigendum to "Incorporating heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour into a livestock disease transmission model" Preventive Vet. Med. 219 (2023) 106019. Preventive veterinary medicine
Crump RE, Aliee M, Sutherland SA, Huang CI, Crowley EH, Spencer SEF, Keeling MJ, Shampa C, Mwamba Miaka E, Rock KS. (2024). Modelling timelines to elimination of sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo, accounting for possible cryptic human and animal transmission. Parasites & vectors, 17(1)
Carson J, Keeling M, Wyllie D, Ribeca P, Didelot X. (2024). Inference of infectious disease transmission through a relaxed bottleneck using multiple genomes per host. Molecular biology and evolution
Asplin P, Keeling MJ, Mancy R, Hill EM. (2024). Epidemiological and health economic implications of symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens: A mathematical modelling investigation. PLoS computational biology, 20(5)
Asplin P, Mancy R, Finnie T, Cumming F, Keeling MJ, Hill EM. (2024). Symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens of public health concern: a review of the evidence. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 21(216)
Bouros I, Hill EM, Keeling MJ, Moore S, Thompson RN. (2024). Prioritising older individuals for COVID-19 booster vaccination leads to optimal public health outcomes in a range of socio-economic settings. PLoS computational biology, 20(8)
Manley H, Bayley T, Danelian G, Burton L, Finnie T, Charlett A, Watkins NA, Birrell P, De Angelis D, Keeling M, Funk S, Medley G, Pellis L, Baguelin M, Ackland GJ, Hutchinson J, Riley S, Panovska-Griffiths J. (2024). Combining models to generate consensus medium-term projections of hospital admissions, occupancy and deaths relating to COVID-19 in England. Royal Society open science, (11)
Moore S, Hill EM, Dyson L, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ. (2023). Author Correction: Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature medicine
Littlecott H, Herd C, O'Rourke J, Chaparro LT, Keeling M, James Rubin G, Fearon E. (2023). Effectiveness of testing, contact tracing and isolation interventions among the general population on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review. Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, 381(2257)
Brand SPC, Cavallaro M, Cumming F, Turner C, Florence I, Blomquist P, Hilton J, Guzman-Rincon LM, House T, Nokes DJ, Keeling MJ. (2023). The role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom. Nature communications, 14(1)
Keeling MJ, Moore S, Penman BS, Hill EM. (2023). The impacts of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose separation and targeting on the COVID-19 epidemic in England. Nature communications, 14(1)
Eames KTD, Tang ML, Hill EM, Tildesley MJ, Read JM, Keeling MJ, Gog JR. (2023). Coughs, colds and "freshers' flu" survey in the University of Cambridge, 2007-2008. Epidemics, (42)
Hill EM, Prosser NS, Brown PE, Ferguson E, Green MJ, Kaler J, Keeling MJ, Tildesley MJ. (2023). Incorporating heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour into a livestock disease transmission model. Preventive veterinary medicine, (219)
Cavallaro M, Dyson L, Tildesley MJ, Todkill D, Keeling MJ. (2023). Spatio-temporal surveillance and early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a retrospective analysis. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 20(208)
Helekal D, Keeling M, Grad YH, Didelot X. (2023). Estimating the fitness cost and benefit of antimicrobial resistance from pathogen genomic data. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 20(203)
Cavallaro M, Moran E, Collyer B, McCarthy ND, Green C, Keeling MJ. (2022). Informing antimicrobial stewardship with explainable AI. PLOS digital health, 2(1)
Pellis L, Birrell PJ, Blake J, Overton CE, Scarabel F, Stage HB, Brooks-Pollock E, Danon L, Hall I, House TA, Keeling MJ, Read JM, , De Angelis D. (2022). Estimation of reproduction numbers in real time: Conceptual and statistical challenges. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society), 185(Suppl 1)
Cavallaro M, Coelho J, Ready D, Decraene V, Lamagni T, McCarthy ND, Todkill D, Keeling MJ. (2022). Cluster detection with random neighbourhood covering: Application to invasive Group A Streptococcal disease. PLoS computational biology, 18(11)
Hill EM, Prosser NS, Ferguson E, Kaler J, Green MJ, Keeling MJ, Tildesley MJ. (2022). Modelling livestock infectious disease control policy under differing social perspectives on vaccination behaviour. PLoS computational biology, 18(7)
Leng T, Hill EM, Holmes A, Southall E, Thompson RN, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ, Dyson L. (2022). Quantifying pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in English secondary schools. Nature communications, 13(1)
Leng T, Hill EM, Keeling MJ, Tildesley MJ, Thompson RN. (2022). The effect of notification window length on the epidemiological impact of COVID-19 contact tracing mobile applications. Communications medicine, (2)
Moore S, Hill EM, Dyson L, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ. (2022). Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature medicine
Leng T, Hill EM, Thompson RN, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ, Dyson L. (2022). Assessing the impact of lateral flow testing strategies on within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and absences: A modelling study. PLoS computational biology, 18(5)
Prosser NS, Hill EM, Armstrong D, Gow L, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ, Kaler J, Ferguson E, Green MJ. (2022). Descriptive analysis of national bovine viral diarrhoea test data in England (2016-2020). The Veterinary record
Ojal J, Brand SPC, Were V, Okiro EA, Kombe IK, Mburu C, Aziza R, Ogero M, Agweyu A, Warimwe GM, Uyoga S, Adetifa IMO, Scott JAG, Otieno E, Ochola-Oyier LI, Agoti CN, Kasera K, Amoth P, Mwangangi M, Aman R, Ng'ang'a W, Tsofa B, Bejon P, Barasa E, Keeling MJ, Nokes DJ. (2022). Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data. Wellcome open research, (6)
Antillon M, Huang CI, Crump RE, Brown PE, Snijders R, Miaka EM, Keeling MJ, Rock KS, Tediosi F. (2022). Cost-effectiveness of sleeping sickness elimination campaigns in five settings of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Nature communications, 13(1)
Keeling MJ, Dyson L, Tildesley MJ, Hill EM, Moore S. (2022). Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England. Nature communications, 13(1)
Huang CI, Crump RE, Brown PE, Spencer SEF, Miaka EM, Shampa C, Keeling MJ, Rock KS. (2022). Identifying regions for enhanced control of gambiense sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Nature communications, 13(1)
Keeling MJ, Moore SE. (2022). An assessment of the vaccination of school-aged children in England against SARS-CoV-2. BMC medicine, 20(1)
Keeling MJ, Dyson L, Guyver-Fletcher G, Holmes A, Semple MG, , Tildesley MJ, Hill EM. (2022). Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number. Statistical methods in medical research
Keeling MJ. (2022). Patterns of reported infection and reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 in England. Journal of theoretical biology
Hilton J, Riley H, Pellis L, Aziza R, Brand SPC, K Kombe I, Ojal J, Parisi A, Keeling MJ, Nokes DJ, Manson-Sawko R, House T. (2022). A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic. PLoS computational biology, 18(9)
Tildesley MJ, Vassall A, Riley S, Jit M, Sandmann F, Hill EM, Thompson RN, Atkins BD, Edmunds J, Dyson L, Keeling MJ. (2022). Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study. Royal Society open science, 9(8)
Orangi S, Ojal J, Brand SP, Orlendo C, Kairu A, Aziza R, Ogero M, Agweyu A, Warimwe GM, Uyoga S, Otieno E, Ochola-Oyier LI, Agoti CN, Kasera K, Amoth P, Mwangangi M, Aman R, Ng'ang'a W, Adetifa IM, Scott JAG, Bejon P, Keeling MJ, Flasche S, Nokes DJ, Barasa E. (2022). Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in Kenya. BMJ global health, 7(8)
Aliee M, Keeling MJ, Rock KS. (2021). Modelling to explore the potential impact of asymptomatic human infections on transmission and dynamics of African sleeping sickness. PLoS computational biology, 17(9)
Davis CN, Rock KS, Antillón M, Miaka EM, Keeling MJ. (2021). Cost-effectiveness modelling to optimise active screening strategy for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in endemic areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo. BMC medicine, 19(1)
Hill EM, Atkins BD, Keeling MJ, Dyson L, Tildesley MJ. (2021). A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population: An application to SARS-CoV-2. PLoS computational biology, 17(6)
Moore S, Hill EM, Dyson L, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ. (2021). Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK. PLoS computational biology, 17(5)
Dyson L, Hill EM, Moore S, Curran-Sebastian J, Tildesley MJ, Lythgoe KA, House T, Pellis L, Keeling MJ. (2021). Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics. Nature communications, 12(1)
Crump RE, Huang CI, Knock ES, Spencer SEF, Brown PE, Mwamba Miaka E, Shampa C, Keeling MJ, Rock KS. (2021). Quantifying epidemiological drivers of gambiense human African Trypanosomiasis across the Democratic Republic of Congo. PLoS computational biology, 17(1)
Hill EM, Atkins BD, Keeling MJ, Tildesley MJ, Dyson L. (2021). Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting. Epidemics, (36)
Davis CN, Castaño MS, Aliee M, Patel S, Miaka EM, Keeling MJ, Spencer SEF, Chitnis N, Rock KS. (2021). Modelling to quantify the likelihood that local elimination of transmission has occurred using routine gambiense human African trypanosomiasis surveillance data. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
Mateen BA, Wilde H, Dennis JM, Duncan A, Thomas N, McGovern A, Denaxas S, Keeling M, Vollmer S. (2021). Hospital bed capacity and usage across secondary healthcare providers in England during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: a descriptive analysis. BMJ open, 11(1)
Cavallaro M, Moiz H, Keeling MJ, McCarthy ND. (2021). Contrasting factors associated with COVID-19-related ICU admission and death outcomes in hospitalised patients by means of Shapley values. PLoS computational biology, 17(6)
Keeling MJ, Hill EM, Gorsich EE, Penman B, Guyver-Fletcher G, Holmes A, Leng T, McKimm H, Tamborrino M, Dyson L, Tildesley MJ. (2021). Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: Short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies. PLoS computational biology, 17(1)
Tennant WSD, Cardinale E, Cêtre-Sossah C, Moutroifi Y, Le Godais G, Colombi D, Spencer SEF, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ, Charafouddine O, Colizza V, Edmunds WJ, Métras R. (2021). Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape. Nature communications, 12(1)
Möhlmann TWR, Keeling MJ, Wennergren U, Favia G, Santman-Berends I, Takken W, Koenraadt CJM, Brand SPC. (2021). Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks. Scientific reports, 11(1)
Parisi A, Brand SPC, Hilton J, Aziza R, Keeling MJ, Nokes DJ. (2021). Spatially resolved simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in three European countries. PLoS computational biology, 17(7)
Aliee M, Castaño S, Davis CN, Patel S, Miaka EM, Spencer SEF, Keeling MJ, Chitnis N, Rock KS. (2021). Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Moore S, Hill EM, Tildesley MJ, Dyson L, Keeling MJ. (2021). Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet. Infectious diseases
Monaghan EM, Prosser NS, Witt J, Lewis KE, Nabb E, Keeling MJ, Purdy KJ, Green LE. (2021). Impact of Strain Variation of Dichelobacter nodosus on Disease Severity and Presence in Sheep Flocks in England. Frontiers in veterinary science, (8)
Retkute R, Dilger E, Hamilton JGC, Keeling MJ, Courtenay O. (2021). Modelling Sand Fly Lutzomyia longipalpis Attraction to Host Odour: Synthetic Sex-Aggregation Pheromone Dominates the Response. Microorganisms, 9(3)
Brand SPC, Ojal J, Aziza R, Were V, Okiro EA, Kombe IK, Mburu C, Ogero M, Agweyu A, Warimwe GM, Nyagwange J, Karanja H, Gitonga JN, Mugo D, Uyoga S, Adetifa IMO, Scott JAG, Otieno E, Murunga N, Otiende M, Ochola-Oyier LI, Agoti CN, Githinji G, Kasera K, Amoth P, Mwangangi M, Aman R, Ng'ang'a W, Tsofa B, Bejon P, Keeling MJ, Nokes DJ, Barasa E. (2021). COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya. Science (New York, N.Y.), 374(6570)
Southall E, Holmes A, Hill EM, Atkins BD, Leng T, Thompson RN, Dyson L, Keeling MJ, Tildesley MJ. (2021). An analysis of school absences in England during the COVID-19 pandemic. BMC medicine, 19(1)
Brooks-Pollock E, Read JM, House T, Medley GF, Keeling MJ, Danon L. (2021). The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 376(1829)
Keeling MJ, Tildesley MJ, Atkins BD, Penman B, Southall E, Guyver-Fletcher G, Holmes A, McKimm H, Gorsich EE, Hill EM, Dyson L. (2021). The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 376(1829)
Keeling MJ, Guyver-Fletcher G, Dyson L, Tildesley MJ, Hill EM, Medley GF. (2021). Precautionary breaks: Planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of SARS-CoV2 and the burden of COVID-19 disease. Epidemics, (37)
Davis CN, Keeling MJ, Rock KS. (2021). Modelling gambiense human African trypanosomiasis infection in villages of the Democratic Republic of Congo using Kolmogorov forward equations. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 18(183)
Brooks-Pollock E, Read JM, McLean AR, Keeling MJ, Danon L. (2021). Mapping social distancing measures to the reproduction number for COVID-19. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 376(1829)
Hill EM, Keeling MJ. (2021). Comparison between one and two dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccine prioritization for a fixed number of vaccine doses. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 18(182)
Hill EM, Petrou S, Forster H, de Lusignan S, Yonova I, Keeling MJ. (2020). Optimising age coverage of seasonal influenza vaccination in England: A mathematical and health economic evaluation. PLoS computational biology, 16(10)
Keeling MJ, Hollingsworth TD, Read JM. (2020). Efficacy of contact tracing for the containment of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Journal of epidemiology and community health, 74(10)
Castaño MS, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Rock KS, Palmer C, Knock E, Mwamba Miaka E, Ndung'u JM, Torr S, Verlé P, Spencer SEF, Galvani A, Bever C, Keeling MJ, Chitnis N. (2020). Assessing the impact of aggregating disease stage data in model predictions of human African trypanosomiasis transmission and control activities in Bandundu province (DRC). PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 14(1)
Tennant WSD, Tildesley MJ, Spencer SEF, Keeling MJ. (2020). Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898-1949. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 287(1928)
Leng T, White C, Hilton J, Kucharski A, Pellis L, Stage H, Davies NG, , Keeling MJ, Flasche S. (2020). The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study. Wellcome open research, (5)
Aliee M, Rock KS, Keeling MJ. (2020). Estimating the distribution of time to extinction of infectious diseases in mean-field approaches. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 17(173)
Collyer BS, Turner HC, Hollingsworth TD, Keeling MJ. (2019). Vaccination or mass drug administration against schistosomiasis: a hypothetical cost-effectiveness modelling comparison. Parasites & vectors, 12(1)
Hilton J, Keeling MJ. (2019). Incorporating household structure and demography into models of endemic disease. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 16(157)
Rock KS, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Castaño S, Palmer C, Pandey A, Atkins KE, Ndung'u JM, Hollingsworth TD, Galvani A, Bever C, Chitnis N, Keeling MJ. (2018). Assessing Strategies Against Gambiense Sleeping Sickness Through Mathematical Modeling. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 66(suppl_4)
Probert WJM, Jewell CP, Werkman M, Fonnesbeck CJ, Goto Y, Runge MC, Sekiguchi S, Shea K, Keeling MJ, Ferrari MJ, Tildesley MJ. (2018). Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks. PLoS computational biology, 14(7)
Bradbury NV, Probert WJ, Shea K, Runge MC, Fonnesbeck CJ, Keeling MJ, Ferrari MJ, Tildesley MJ. (2017). Quantifying the Value of Perfect Information in Emergency Vaccination Campaigns. PLoS computational biology, 13(2)
Franklin DN, Brown MA, Datta S, Cuthbertson AGS, Budge GE, Keeling MJ. (2017). Invasion dynamics of Asian hornet, Vespa velutina (Hymenoptera: Vespidae): a case study of a commune in south-west France. Applied entomology and zoology, 52(2)
Brand SP, Keeling MJ. (2017). The impact of temperature changes on vector-borne disease transmission: Culicoides midges and bluetongue virus. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 14(128)
Keeling MJ, Datta S, Franklin DN, Flatman I, Wattam A, Brown M, Budge GE. (2017). Efficient use of sentinel sites: detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 14(129)
Hollingsworth TD, Adams ER, Anderson RM, Atkins K, Bartsch S, Basáñez MG, Behrend M, Blok DJ, Chapman LA, Coffeng L, Courtenay O, Crump RE, de Vlas SJ, Dobson A, Dyson L, Farkas H, Galvani AP, Gambhir M, Gurarie D, Irvine MA, Jervis S, Keeling MJ, Kelly-Hope L, King C, Lee BY, Le Rutte EA, Lietman TM, Ndeffo-Mbah M, Medley GF, Michael E, Pandey A, Peterson JK, Pinsent A, Porco TC, Richardus JH, Reimer L, Rock KS, Singh BK, Stolk W, Swaminathan S, Torr SJ, Townsend J, Truscott J, Walker M, Zoueva A, . (2015). Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases. Parasites & vectors, (8)
Keeling MJ, White PJ. (2011). Targeting vaccination against novel infections: risk, age and spatial structure for pandemic influenza in Great Britain. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 8(58)
Wearing HJ, Rohani P, Keeling MJ. (2005). Appropriate models for the management of infectious diseases. PLoS medicine, 2(7)
Keeling MJ, Eames KT. (2005). Networks and epidemic models. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2(4)
Keeling MJ. (2005). Models of foot-and-mouth disease. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 272(1569)
Rohani P, Miramontes O, Keeling MJ. (2004). The colour of noise in short ecological time series data. Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA, 21(1)
Ferguson NM, Keeling MJ, Edmunds WJ, Gani R, Grenfell BT, Anderson RM, Leach S. (2003). Planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature, 425(6959)
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