My current research focuses on the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases. More specifically, I am interested in the evaluation of public policies for the control of infectious diseaseses (eg. vaccination). Other research interests include the investigation of the effect of demographic changes on the epidemiology of childhood diseases in SSA countries, vector control activities to reduce the spread of mosquito-borne diseases, and the effects of human behavioural response to the risk of epidemics.
He/him/his
Brazil
United States
Germany
Greece
Ethiopia
Belgium
United Kingdom
Thailand
Italy
Mexico
Njogu AM, Musau MM, Srivastava S, Menegale F, Clarke E, Mudereri C, Kitema FR, Opanga Y, Mmbando A, Gashaija A, Sibomana H, Condo J, Osei F, Beňová L, Blanford JI, Poletti P, Torbica A, Melegaro A, Federici C, Macharia PM, . (2026). Geospatial approaches for mapping zero-dose prevalence and routine childhood immunisation coverage in low- and lower-middle-income countries: A scoping review. Vaccine, (89)
Lucchini L, Marziano V, Trentini F, Chiavenna C, D'Agnese E, Offeddu V, Manica M, Poletti P, Balsamo D, Guzzetta G, Ajelli M, Melegaro A, Merler S. (2026). Implications for distancing measures on in-person school and work attendance from Italian post-pandemic social contact data. Communications medicine, 6(1)
Marziano V, De Bellis A, Del Manso M, Bella A, Mateo Urdiales A, Molina Grané C, Menegale F, Lucchini L, Manica M, Pilati S, Mipatrini D, Riccardo F, Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Palamara AT, Pezzotti P, Merler S. (2026). Scenario analysis for potential community spread of Andes virus (ANDV). Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 31(22)
Fotakis EA, Del Manso M, Poletti P, Guzzetta G, Bella A, Sacco C, Ballarin D, Zappetti C, Zuccali MG, Spertini S, Riccardo F, Pezzotti P, Merler S, . (2026). Assessing the annual burden of tick-borne encephalitis virus infections, north-east Italy, 2017 to 2024. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 31(17)
Harp RD, Holcomb KM, Retkute R, Prusokiene A, Prusokas A, Ertem Z, Ajelli M, Kummer AG, Litvinova M, Merler S, Piontti APY, Poletti P, Vespignani A, Wilke ABB, Zardini A, Smith KH, Armstrong P, DeFelice N, Keyel A, Shepard J, Smith R, Tyre A, Humphreys J, Cohnstaedt LW, Hosseini S, Scoglio C, Gorris ME, Barnard M, Moser SK, Spencer JA, McCarter MSJ, Lee C, Nolan MS, Barker CM, Staples JE, Nett RJ, Johansson MA. (2025). Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA. Parasites & vectors, 18(1)
De Nardi A, Marini G, Dorigatti I, Rosà R, Tamba M, Gelmini L, Prosperi A, Menegale F, Poletti P, Calzolari M, Pugliese A. (2025). Quantifying West Nile virus circulation in the avian host population in Northern Italy. Infectious Disease Modelling, 10(2)
Rovida F, Faccini M, Grané CM, Cassaniti I, Senatore S, Rossetti E, Scardina G, Piazza M, Campanini G, Lilleri D, Paolucci S, Ferrari G, Piralla A, Defilippo F, Lelli D, Moreno A, Vezzosi L, Attanasi F, Marzia S, Manuela B, Cerutti L, Paglia S, Regazzetti A, Marcacci M, Di Donato G, Farioli M, Manica M, Poletti P, Lavazza A, Bonini M, Merler S, Baldanti F, Cereda D, . (2025). The 2023 Dengue Outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: A One-Health Perspective. Travel medicine and infectious disease
Cattaneo P, Salvador E, Manica M, Barzon L, Castilletti C, Di Gennaro F, Huits R, Merler S, Poletti P, Riccardo F, Saracino A, Segala F, Zammarchi L, Buonfrate D, Gobbi F. (2025). Transmission of autochthonous Aedes-borne arboviruses and related public health challenges in Europe 2007-2023: a systematic review and secondary analysis. The Lancet regional health. Europe, (51)
Nadim SS, Menegale F, Manica M, Kaye AR, Balatsos G, Bisia M, Pichler V, Poletti P, Merler S, Della Torre A, Thompson RN, Michaelakis A, Guzzetta G. (2025). Assessing risks of dengue, chikungunya and Zika transmission associated to Aedes albopictus in Chania, Greece, 2017-2018. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 19(12)
d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Marziano V, Zardini A, Manica M, Guzzetta G, Ajelli M, Petrone D, Del Manso M, Sacco C, Andrianou X, Bella A, Riccardo F, Pezzotti P, Poletti P, Merler S. (2024). Spatial spread of COVID-19 during the early pandemic phase in Italy. BMC infectious diseases, 24(1)
Bizzotto A, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Del Manso M, Mateo Urdiales A, Petrone D, Cannone A, Sacco C, Poletti P, Manica M, Zardini A, Trentini F, Fabiani M, Bella A, Riccardo F, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2024). Increasing situational awareness through nowcasting of the reproduction number. Frontiers in public health, (12)
Zardini A, Menegale F, Gobbi A, Manica M, Guzzetta G, d'Andrea V, Marziano V, Trentini F, Montarsi F, Caputo B, Solimini A, Marques-Toledo C, Wilke ABB, Rosà R, Marini G, Arnoldi D, Pastore Y Piontti A, Pugliese A, Capelli G, Della Torre A, Teixeira MM, Beier JC, Rizzoli A, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Merler S, Poletti P. (2024). Estimating the potential risk of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: a modelling study. The Lancet. Planetary health, 8(1)
Menegale F, Manica M, Zardini A, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Merler S. (2023). Evaluation of Waning of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine-Induced Immunity: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. JAMA network open, 6(5)
Solimini A, Virgillito C, Manica M, Poletti P, Guzzetta G, Marini G, Rosà R, Filipponi F, Scognamiglio P, Vairo F, Caputo B. (2023). How habitat factors affect an Aedes mosquitoes driven outbreak at temperate latitudes: The case of the Chikungunya virus in Italy. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 17(8)
Galli M, Zardini A, Gamshie WN, Santini S, Tsegaye A, Trentini F, Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Manica M, d'Andrea V, Putoto G, Manenti F, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Merler S. (2023). Priority age targets for COVID-19 vaccination in Ethiopia under limited vaccine supply. Scientific reports, 13(1)
Wilke ABB, Damian D, Litvinova M, Byrne T, Zardini A, Poletti P, Merler S, Mutebi JP, Townsend J, Ajelli M. (2023). Spatiotemporal distribution of vector mosquito species and areas at risk for arbovirus transmission in Maricopa County, Arizona. Acta tropica, (240)
Molina Grané C, Mancuso P, Vicentini M, Venturelli F, Djuric O, Manica M, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Zardini A, d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Bisaccia E, Larosa E, Cilloni S, Cassinadri MT, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Rossi PG, Merler S, Poletti P. (2023). SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns in educational settings during the Alpha wave in Reggio-Emilia, Italy. Epidemics, (44)
Manica M, Marini G, Solimini A, Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Scognamiglio P, Virgillito C, Della Torre A, Merler S, Rosà R, Vairo F, Caputo B. (2023). Reporting delays of chikungunya cases during the 2017 outbreak in Lazio region, Italy. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 17(9)
Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Menegale F, Sacco C, Petrone D, Mateo Urdiales A, Del Manso M, Bella A, Fabiani M, Vescio MF, Riccardo F, Poletti P, Manica M, Zardini A, d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Stefanelli P, Rezza G, Palamara AT, Brusaferro S, Ajelli M, Pezzotti P, Merler S. (2023). Estimating SARS-CoV-2 infections and associated changes in COVID-19 severity and fatality. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 17(8)
Stefanelli P, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Mammone A, Sane Schepisi M, Poletti P, Molina Grané C, Manica M, Del Manso M, Andrianou X, Ajelli M, Rezza G, Brusaferro S, Merler S, . (2022). Co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Gamma variants in Italy, February and March 2021. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 27(5)
Marchetti S, Borin A, Conteduca FP, Ilardi G, Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Pezzotti P, Bella A, Stefanelli P, Riccardo F, Merler S, Brandolini A, Brusaferro S. (2022). An epidemic model for SARS-CoV-2 with self-adaptive containment measures. PloS one, 17(7)
Manica M, Poletti P, Deandrea S, Mosconi G, Ancarani C, Lodola S, Guzzetta G, d'Andrea V, Marziano V, Zardini A, Trentini F, Odone A, Tirani M, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2022). Estimating SARS-CoV-2 transmission in educational settings: A retrospective cohort study. Influenza and other respiratory viruses
Trentini F, Manna A, Balbo N, Marziano V, Guzzetta G, O'Dell S, Kummer AG, Litvinova M, Merler S, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Melegaro A. (2022). Investigating the relationship between interventions, contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. Epidemics, (40)
Manica M, Litvinova M, De Bellis A, Guzzetta G, Mancuso P, Vicentini M, Venturelli F, Bisaccia E, Bento AI, Poletti P, Marziano V, Zardini A, d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Bella A, Riccardo F, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Giorgi Rossi P, Merler S, . (2022). Estimation of the incubation period and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants from contact tracing data. Epidemiology and infection, (151)
Liu QH, Zhang J, Peng C, Litvinova M, Huang S, Poletti P, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Zhou T, Viboud C, Bento AI, Lv J, Vespignani A, Merler S, Yu H, Ajelli M. (2022). Model-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19. Nature communications, 13(1)
Manica M, De Bellis A, Guzzetta G, Mancuso P, Vicentini M, Venturelli F, Zerbini A, Bisaccia E, Litvinova M, Menegale F, Molina Grané C, Poletti P, Marziano V, Zardini A, d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Bella A, Riccardo F, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Giorgi Rossi P, Merler S, . (2022). Intrinsic generation time of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant: An observational study of household transmission. The Lancet regional health. Europe, (19)
Stefanelli P, Trentini F, Petrone D, Mammone A, Ambrosio L, Manica M, Guzzetta G, d'Andrea V, Marziano V, Zardini A, Molina Grane' C, Ajelli M, Di Martino A, Riccardo F, Bella A, Sane Schepisi M, Maraglino F, Poletti P, Palamara AT, Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Pezzotti P, Merler S, , , , . (2022). Tracking the progressive spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Italy, December 2021 to January 2022. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 27(45)
Poletti P, Tirani M, Cereda D, Guzzetta G, Trentini F, Marziano V, Toso C, Piatti A, Piccarreta R, Melegaro A, Andreassi A, Gramegna M, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2021). Seroprevalence of and Risk Factors Associated With SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Health Care Workers During the Early COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy. JAMA network open, 4(7)
Poletti P, Tirani M, Cereda D, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Sabatino G, Marziano V, Castrofino A, Grosso F, Del Castillo G, Piccarreta R, Andreassi A, Melegaro A, Gramegna M, Ajelli M, Merler S, . (2021). Association of Age With Likelihood of Developing Symptoms and Critical Disease Among Close Contacts Exposed to Patients With Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Italy. JAMA network open, 4(3)
Manica M, Guzzetta G, Riccardo F, Valenti A, Poletti P, Marziano V, Trentini F, Andrianou X, Mateo-Urdiales A, Del Manso M, Fabiani M, Vescio MF, Spuri M, Petrone D, Bella A, Iavicoli S, Ajelli M, Brusaferro S, Pezzotti P, Merler S. (2021). Impact of tiered restrictions on human activities and the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy. Nature communications, 12(1)
Yang J, Marziano V, Deng X, Guzzetta G, Zhang J, Trentini F, Cai J, Poletti P, Zheng W, Wang W, Wu Q, Zhao Z, Dong K, Zhong G, Viboud C, Merler S, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021. Nature human behaviour
Cereda D, Manica M, Tirani M, Rovida F, Demicheli V, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Piccarreta R, Barone A, Magoni M, Deandrea S, Diurno G, Lombardo M, Faccini M, Pan A, Bruno R, Pariani E, Grasselli G, Piatti A, Gramegna M, Baldanti F, Melegaro A, Merler S. (2021). The early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy. Epidemics, (37)
Zardini A, Galli M, Tirani M, Cereda D, Manica M, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Piccarreta R, Melegaro A, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Merler S. (2021). A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate COVID-19 burden. Epidemics, (37)
Manica M, Pancheri S, Poletti P, Giovanazzi G, Guzzetta G, Trentini F, Marziano V, Ajelli M, Grazia Zuccali M, Benetollo PP, Merler S, Ferro A. (2021). The risk of symptomatic infection during a second COVID-19 wave, in SARS-CoV-2 seropositive individuals. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
Trentini F, Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Tirani M, Cereda D, Poletti P, Piccarreta R, Barone A, Preziosi G, Arduini F, Valle PGD, Zanella A, Grosso F, Castillo G, Castrofino A, Grasselli G, Melegaro A, Piatti A, Andreassi A, Gramegna M, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2021). The pressure on healthcare system and intensive care utilization during the COVID-19 outbreak in the Lombardy region: a retrospective observational study on 43,538 hospitalized patients. American journal of epidemiology
Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Mammone A, Riccardo F, Poletti P, Trentini F, Manica M, Siddu A, Bella A, Stefanelli P, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Merler S. (2021). The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus. Nature communications, 12(1)
Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Rondinone BM, Boccuni F, Riccardo F, Bella A, Poletti P, Trentini F, Pezzotti P, Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Iavicoli S, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2021). Retrospective analysis of the Italian exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(4)
Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Galli M, Zardini A, Manenti F, Putoto G, Marziano V, Gamshie WN, Tsegaye A, Greblo A, Melegaro A, Ajelli M, Merler S, Poletti P. (2021). Modeling the interplay between demography, social contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the South West Shewa Zone of Oromia Region, Ethiopia. BMC medicine, 19(1)
Yang J, Marziano V, Deng X, Guzzetta G, Zhang J, Trentini F, Cai J, Poletti P, Zheng W, Wang W, Wu Q, Zhao Z, Dong K, Zhong G, Viboud C, Merler S, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Can a COVID-19 vaccination program guarantee the return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle?. Research square
Yang J, Marziano V, Deng X, Guzzetta G, Zhang J, Trentini F, Cai J, Poletti P, Zheng W, Wang W, Wu Q, Zhao Z, Dong K, Zhong G, Viboud C, Merler S, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). To what extent do we need to rely on non-pharmaceutical interventions while COVID-19 vaccines roll out in 2021?. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
Del Fava E, Adema I, Kiti MC, Poletti P, Merler S, Nokes DJ, Manfredi P, Melegaro A. (2021). Individual's daily behaviour and intergenerational mixing in different social contexts of Kenya. Scientific reports, 11(1)
Poletti P, Tirani M, Cereda D, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Buoro S, Riboli S, Crottogini L, Piccarreta R, Piatti A, Grasselli G, Melegaro A, Gramegna M, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2020). Age-specific SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality ratio and associated risk factors, Italy, February to April 2020. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 25(31)
Caputo B, Russo G, Manica M, Vairo F, Poletti P, Guzzetta G, Merler S, Scagnolari C, Solimini A. (2020). A comparative analysis of the 2007 and 2017 Italian chikungunya outbreaks and implication for public health response. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 14(6)
Riccardo F, Ajelli M, Andrianou XD, Bella A, Del Manso M, Fabiani M, Bellino S, Boros S, Urdiales AM, Marziano V, Rota MC, Filia A, D'Ancona F, Siddu A, Punzo O, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Stefanelli P, Castrucci MR, Ciervo A, Di Benedetto C, Tallon M, Piccioli A, Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Merler S, Pezzotti P, . (2020). Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases and estimates of the reproductive numbers 1 month into the epidemic, Italy, 28 January to 31 March 2020. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 25(49)
Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Ajelli M, Trentini F, Marziano V, Cereda D, Tirani M, Diurno G, Bodina A, Barone A, Crottogini L, Gramegna M, Melegaro A, Merler S. (2020). Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 25(12)
Guzzetta G, Riccardo F, Marziano V, Poletti P, Trentini F, Bella A, Andrianou X, Del Manso M, Fabiani M, Bellino S, Boros S, Urdiales AM, Vescio MF, Piccioli A, , Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2020). Impact of a Nationwide Lockdown on SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility, Italy. Emerging infectious diseases, 27(1)
Bosetti P, Poletti P, Stella M, Lepri B, Merler S, De Domenico M. (2020). Heterogeneity in social and epidemiological factors determines the risk of measles outbreaks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(48)
Guzzetta G, Vairo F, Mammone A, Lanini S, Poletti P, Manica M, Rosa R, Caputo B, Solimini A, Torre AD, Scognamiglio P, Zumla A, Ippolito G, Merler S. (2020). Spatial modes for transmission of chikungunya virus during a large chikungunya outbreak in Italy: a modeling analysis. BMC medicine, 18(1)
Trentini F, Poletti P, Melegaro A, Merler S. (2019). The introduction of 'No jab, No school' policy and the refinement of measles immunisation strategies in high-income countries. BMC medicine, 17(1)
Marziano V, Poletti P, Trentini F, Melegaro A, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2019). Parental vaccination to reduce measles immunity gaps in Italy. eLife, (8)
Marziano V, Poletti P, Béraud G, Boëlle PY, Merler S, Colizza V. (2018). Modeling the impact of changes in day-care contact patterns on the dynamics of varicella transmission in France between 1991 and 2015. PLoS computational biology, 14(8)
Sun K, Zhang Q, Pastore-Piontti A, Chinazzi M, Mistry D, Dean NE, Rojas DP, Merler S, Poletti P, Rossi L, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Vespignani A. (2018). Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic. BMC medicine, 16(1)
Melegaro A, Marziano V, Del Fava E, Poletti P, Tirani M, Rizzo C, Merler S. (2018). The impact of demographic changes, exogenous boosting and new vaccination policies on varicella and herpes zoster in Italy: a modelling and cost-effectiveness study. BMC medicine, 16(1)
Manica M, Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Filipponi F, Solimini A, Caputo B, Della Torre A, Rosà R, Merler S. (2017). Transmission dynamics of the ongoing chikungunya outbreak in Central Italy: from coastal areas to the metropolitan city of Rome, summer 2017. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 22(44)
Guzzetta G, Trentini F, Poletti P, Baldacchino FA, Montarsi F, Capelli G, Rizzoli A, Rosà R, Merler S, Melegaro A. (2017). Effectiveness and economic assessment of routine larviciding for prevention of chikungunya and dengue in temperate urban settings in Europe. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 11(9)
Zhang Q, Sun K, Chinazzi M, Pastore Y Piontti A, Dean NE, Rojas DP, Merler S, Mistry D, Poletti P, Rossi L, Bray M, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., Vespignani A. (2017). Spread of Zika virus in the Americas. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114(22)
Poletti P, Visintainer R, Lepri B, Merler S. (2017). The interplay between individual social behavior and clinical symptoms in small clustered groups. BMC infectious diseases, 17(1)
Guzzetta G, Tagliapietra V, Perkins SE, Hauffe HC, Poletti P, Merler S, Rizzoli A. (2017). Population dynamics of wild rodents induce stochastic fadeouts of a zoonotic pathogen. The Journal of animal ecology, 86(3)
Melegaro A, Del Fava E, Poletti P, Merler S, Nyamukapa C, Williams J, Gregson S, Manfredi P. (2017). Social Contact Structures and Time Use Patterns in the Manicaland Province of Zimbabwe. PloS one, 12(1)
Trentini F, Poletti P, Merler S, Melegaro A. (2017). Measles immunity gaps and the progress towards elimination: a multi-country modelling analysis. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 17(10)
Guzzetta G, Montarsi F, Baldacchino FA, Metz M, Capelli G, Rizzoli A, Pugliese A, Rosà R, Poletti P, Merler S. (2016). Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae). PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 10(6)
Marini G, Poletti P, Giacobini M, Pugliese A, Merler S, Rosà R. (2016). The Role of Climatic and Density Dependent Factors in Shaping Mosquito Population Dynamics: The Case of Culex pipiens in Northwestern Italy. PloS one, 11(4)
Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Merler S, Manfredi P. (2016). The Epidemiology of Herpes Zoster After Varicella Immunization Under Different Biological Hypotheses: Perspectives From Mathematical Modeling. American journal of epidemiology, 183(8)
Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Montarsi F, Baldacchino F, Capelli G, Rizzoli A, Rosà R, Merler S. (2016). Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 21(15)
Marziano V, Poletti P, Guzzetta G, Ajelli M, Manfredi P, Merler S. (2015). The impact of demographic changes on the epidemiology of herpes zoster: Spain as a case study. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 282(1804)
Ajelli M, Poletti P, Melegaro A, Merler S. (2014). The role of different social contexts in shaping influenza transmission during the 2009 pandemic. Scientific reports, (4)
Poletti P, Melegaro A, Ajelli M, Del Fava E, Guzzetta G, Faustini L, Scalia Tomba G, Lopalco P, Rizzo C, Merler S, Manfredi P. (2013). Perspectives on the impact of varicella immunization on herpes zoster. A model-based evaluation from three European countries. PloS one, 8(4)
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