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Raffaele Vardavas

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Raffaele Vardavas is a mathematician at the RAND Corporation and a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. His expertise is primarily in constructing and analyzing epidemic models for the spreading of infectious disease using both deterministic and stochastic methods and using both population-level and agent-based models. He holds a Ph.D. and M.Sci. in physics from Imperial College London.

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Papers

Vardavas R, Nascimento De Lima P, Baker L, Crowley C, Carman K, Parker AM, Abir M. (2026). Modeling the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on nurses' supply and wages. Frontiers in epidemiology, (6)

Mitsopoulos K, Baker L, Lebiere C, Pirolli P, Orr M, Vardavas R. (2025). Cognitively-plausible reinforcement learning in epidemiological agent-based simulations. Frontiers in epidemiology, (5)

Nascimento de Lima P, Karr S, Lim JZ, Vardavas R, Roberts D, Kessler A, Awan J, Faherty LJ, Willis HH. (2024). The value of environmental surveillance for pandemic response. Scientific reports, 14(1)

Walsh MM, Parker AM, Vardavas R, Nowak SA, Kennedy DP, Gidengil CA. (2024). Using a computational cognitive model to simulate the effects of personal and social network experiences on seasonal influenza vaccination decisions. Frontiers in epidemiology, (4)

Matthews LJ, Schuler MS, Vardavas R, Breslau J, Popescu I. (2024). Evaluation via simulation of statistical corrections for network nonindependence. Health services & outcomes research methodology, 24(2)

Nowak SA, Nascimento de Lima P, Vardavas R. (2023). Optimal non-pharmaceutical pandemic response strategies depend critically on time horizons and costs. Scientific reports, 13(1)

Parker AM, Atshan S, Walsh MM, Gidengil CA, Vardavas R. (2022). Association of COVID-19 Vaccination With Influenza Vaccine History and Changes in Influenza Vaccination. JAMA network open, 5(11)

Rahmani J, Montesanto A, Giovannucci E, Zand H, Barati M, Kopchick JJ, Mirisola MG, Lagani V, Bawadi H, Vardavas R, Laviano A, Christensen K, Passarino G, Longo VD. (2022). Association between IGF-1 levels ranges and all-cause mortality: A meta-analysis. Aging cell

Vardavas R, de Lima PN, Davis PK, Parker AM, Baker L. Modeling Infectious Behaviors: The Need to Account for Behavioral Adaptation in COVID-19 Models. Policy and complex systems, 7(1)

Vardavas R, de Lima PN, Baker L. Could periodic nonpharmaceutical intervention strategies produce better COVID-19 health and economic outcomes?. Policy and complex systems, 7(1)

Nowak SA, Parker AM, Gidengil CA, Richardson AS, Walsh MM, Kennedy DP, Vardavas R. (2022). Reciprocal relationships among influenza experiences, perceptions, and behavior: Results from a national, longitudinal survey of United States adults. Social science & medicine (1982), (296)

Hartnett GS, Parker E, Gulden TR, Vardavas R, Kravitz D. (2021). Modelling the impact of social distancing and targeted vaccination on the spread of COVID-19 through a real city-scale contact network. Journal of complex networks, 9(6)

de Lima PN, Lempert R, Vardavas R, Baker L, Ringel J, Rutter CM, Ozik J, Collier N. (2021). Reopening California : Seeking Robust, Non-Dominated COVID-19 Exit Strategies. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Nascimento de Lima P, Lempert R, Vardavas R, Baker L, Ringel J, Rutter CM, Ozik J, Collier N. (2021). Reopening California: Seeking robust, non-dominated COVID-19 exit strategies. PloS one, 16(10)

Vardavas R, de Lima PN, Baker L. (2021). Modeling COVID-19 Nonpharmaceutical Interventions: Exploring periodic NPI strategies. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Bruine de Bruin W, Galesic M, Parker AM, Vardavas R. (2020). The Role of Social Circle Perceptions in "False Consensus" about Population Statistics: Evidence from a National Flu Survey. Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, 40(2)

Vardavas, Raffaele, Aaron Strong, Jennifer Bouey, Jonathan William Welburn, Pedro Nascimento de Lima, Lawrence Baker, Keren Zhu, Michelle Priest, Lynn Hu, and Jeanne S. Ringel. (2020). The Health and Economic Impacts of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Address COVID-19. RAND Corporation

Walsh MM, Parker AM, Vardavas R, Nowak SA, Kennedy DP, Gidengil CA. (2020). The Stability of Influenza Vaccination Behavior Over Time: A Longitudinal Analysis of Individuals Across 8 Years. Annals of behavioral medicine : a publication of the Society of Behavioral Medicine

Johansson MA, Apfeldorf KM, Dobson S, Devita J, Buczak AL, Baugher B, Moniz LJ, Bagley T, Babin SM, Guven E, Yamana TK, Shaman J, Moschou T, Lothian N, Lane A, Osborne G, Jiang G, Brooks LC, Farrow DC, Hyun S, Tibshirani RJ, Rosenfeld R, Lessler J, Reich NG, Cummings DAT, Lauer SA, Moore SM, Clapham HE, Lowe R, Bailey TC, García-Díez M, Carvalho MS, Rodó X, Sardar T, Paul R, Ray EL, Sakrejda K, Brown AC, Meng X, Osoba O, Vardavas R, Manheim D, Moore M, Rao DM, Porco TC, Ackley S, Liu F, Worden L, Convertino M, Liu Y, Reddy A, Ortiz E, Rivero J, Brito H, Juarrero A, Johnson LR, Gramacy RB, Cohen JM, Mordecai EA, Murdock CC, Rohr JR, Ryan SJ, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Weikel DP, Jutla A, Khan R, Poultney M, Colwell RR, Rivera-García B, Barker CM, Bell JE, Biggerstaff M, Swerdlow D, Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L, Forshey BM, Trtanj J, Asher J, Clay M, Margolis HS, Hebbeler AM, George D, Chretien JP. (2019). An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(48)

Bruine de Bruin W, Parker AM, Galesic M, Vardavas R. (2019). Reports of social circles' and own vaccination behavior: A national longitudinal survey. Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association, 38(11)

Pacula RL, Hunter SB, Ober AJ, Osilla KC, Vardavas R, Blanchard JC, DeVries D, Drabo EF, Leuschner KJ, Stewart W, Walters J. (2017). Preventing, Identifying, and Treating Prescription Drug Misuse Among Active-Duty Service Members. Rand health quarterly, 7(1)

Drabo EF, Hay JW, Vardavas R, Wagner ZR, Sood N. (2016). A Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Preexposure Prophylaxis for the Prevention of HIV Among Los Angeles County Men Who Have Sex With Men. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 63(11)

Hoffman RM, Jaycocks A, Vardavas R, Wagner G, Lake JE, Mindry D, Currier JS, Landovitz RJ. (2015). Benefits of PrEP as an Adjunctive Method of HIV Prevention During Attempted Conception Between HIV-uninfected Women and HIV-infected Male Partners. The Journal of infectious diseases, 212(10)

Sood N, Wagner Z, Jaycocks A, Drabo E, Vardavas R. (2013). Reply to Gonzalez-Serna et al. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 57(3)

Cordova A, Eibner C, Vardavas R, Broyles J, Girosi F. (2013). Modeling employer self-insurance decisions after the Affordable Care Act. Health services research, 48(2 Pt 2)

Parker AM, Vardavas R, Marcum CS, Gidengil CA. (2013). Conscious consideration of herd immunity in influenza vaccination decisions. American journal of preventive medicine, 45(1)

Sood N, Wagner Z, Jaycocks A, Drabo E, Vardavas R. (2013). Test-and-treat in Los Angeles: a mathematical model of the effects of test-and-treat for the population of men who have sex with men in Los Angeles County. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 56(12)

Eibner C, Price CC, Vardavas R, Cordova A, Girosi F. (2012). Small firms' actions in two areas, and exchange premium and enrollment impact. Health affairs (Project Hope), 31(2)

Eibner C, Girosi F, Miller A, Cordova A, McGlynn EA, Pace NM, Price CC, Vardavas R, Gresenz CR. (2011). Employer Self-Insurance Decisions and the Implications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act as Modified by the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010 (ACA). Rand health quarterly, 1(2)

Vardavas R, Breban R, Blower S. (2010). A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics. BMC research notes, (3)

Breban R, Supervie V, Okano JT, Vardavas R, Blower S. (2008). Is there any evidence that syphilis epidemics cycle?. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 8(9)

Fenton KA, Breban R, Vardavas R, Okano JT, Martin T, Aral S, Blower S. (2008). Infectious syphilis in high-income settings in the 21st century. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 8(4)

Breban R, Vardavas R, Blower S. (2007). Mean-field analysis of an inductive reasoning game: application to influenza vaccination. Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics, 76(3 Pt 1)

Vardavas R, Breban R, Blower S. (2007). Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?. PLoS computational biology, 3(5)

Vardavas R, Blower S. (2007). The emergence of HIV transmitted resistance in Botswana: "when will the WHO detection threshold be exceeded?". PloS one, 2(1)

Breban R, Vardavas R, Blower S. (2007). Theory versus data: how to calculate R0?. PloS one, 2(3)

Breban R, Vardavas R, Blower S. (2005). Linking population-level models with growing networks: a class of epidemic models. Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics, 72(4 Pt 2)

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