National Institutes of Health, National Institute of General Medical Sciences
People: Simon Cauchemez, James (Mac) Hyman, Steven Riley, Sze Man Leung, Neil Ferguson
2014 – 2019 Continue Reading Models for synthesising molecular, clinical and epidemiological data, and transla
Kennedy J, Ferguson W, Jones O, Riley S, Ward T, Tang ML, Mellor J. (2026). Evaluation of short-term multi-target respiratory forecasts over winter 2024-25 in England using sub-ensemble contribution analyses. PLoS computational biology, 22(8)
Chen S, García-Carreras B, Hay JA, Zhu H, Jiang CQ, Kwok KO, Riley S, Read J, Lessler J, Cummings DAT, Metcalf CJE. (2025). Sex differences in antibody responses to influenza A/H3N2 across the life course. Research square
Mellor J, Tang ML, Jones O, Ward T, Riley S, Deeny SR. (2025). Forecasting COVID-19, influenza, and RSV hospitalizations over winter 2023-4 in England. International journal of epidemiology, 54(3)
Wang H, Kwok KO, Li R, Riley S. (2025). Forecasting regional COVID-19 hospitalisation in England using ordinal machine learning method. Epidemics, (53)
Atchison CJ, Gilby N, Pantelidou G, Clemens S, Pickering K, Chadeau-Hyam M, Ashby D, Barclay WS, Cooke GS, Darzi A, Riley S, Donnelly CA, Ward H, Elliott P. (2025). Strategies to Increase Response Rate and Reduce Nonresponse Bias in Population Health Research: Analysis of a Series of Randomized Controlled Experiments during a Large COVID-19 Study. JMIR public health and surveillance, (11)
Smith CP, Read JM, Riley S, Cummings D, Kwok KO, Jiang CQ, Lessler J. (2025). First- and second-order social contact network structure in southern China. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 22(232)
Kwok KO, Huynh T, Wei WI, Wong SYS, Riley S, Tang A. (2024). Utilizing large language models in infectious disease transmission modelling for public health preparedness. Computational and structural biotechnology journal, (23)
Lipsitch M, Bassett MT, Brownstein JS, Elliott P, Eyre D, Grabowski MK, Hay JA, Johansson MA, Kissler SM, Larremore DB, Layden JE, Lessler J, Lynfield R, MacCannell D, Madoff LC, Metcalf CJE, Meyers LA, Ofori SK, Quinn C, Bento AI, Reich NG, Riley S, Rosenfeld R, Samore MH, Sampath R, Slayton RB, Swerdlow DL, Truelove S, Varma JK, Grad YH. (2024). Infectious disease surveillance needs for the United States: lessons from Covid-19. Frontiers in public health, (12)
Eales O, Riley S. (2024). Differences between the true reproduction number and the apparent reproduction number of an epidemic time series. Epidemics, (46)
Hay JA, Zhu H, Jiang CQ, Kwok KO, Shen R, Kucharski A, Yang B, Read JM, Lessler J, Cummings DAT, Riley S. (2024). Reconstructed influenza A/H3N2 infection histories reveal variation in incidence and antibody dynamics over the life course. PLoS biology, 22(11)
Manley H, Bayley T, Danelian G, Burton L, Finnie T, Charlett A, Watkins NA, Birrell P, De Angelis D, Keeling M, Funk S, Medley G, Pellis L, Baguelin M, Ackland GJ, Hutchinson J, Riley S, Panovska-Griffiths J. (2024). Combining models to generate consensus medium-term projections of hospital admissions, occupancy and deaths relating to COVID-19 in England. Royal Society open science, (11)
Eales O, Haw D, Wang H, Atchison C, Ashby D, Cooke GS, Barclay W, Ward H, Darzi A, Donnelly CA, Chadeau-Hyam M, Elliott P, Riley S. (2023). Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalisation and infection fatality ratios over 23 months in England. PLoS biology, 21(5)
Ward H, Atchison C, Whitaker M, Davies B, Ashby D, Darzi A, Chadeau-Hyam M, Riley S, Donnelly CA, Barclay W, Cooke GS, Elliott P. (2023). Design and Implementation of a National Program to Monitor the Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG Antibodies in England Using Self-Testing: The REACT-2 Study. American journal of public health
Bhatia S, Parag KV, Wardle J, Nash RK, Imai N, Elsland SLV, Lassmann B, Brownstein JS, Desai A, Herringer M, Sewalk K, Loeb SC, Ramatowski J, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Jauneikaite E, Unwin HJT, Riley S, Ferguson N, Donnelly CA, Cori A, Nouvellet P. (2023). Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts. PloS one, 18(10)
Elliott P, Ward H, Riley S. (2023). Population Monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 Infections via Random Sampling During the COVID-19 Pandemic. American journal of public health, 113(5)
Elliott P, Whitaker M, Tang D, Eales O, Steyn N, Bodinier B, Wang H, Elliott J, Atchison C, Ashby D, Barclay W, Taylor G, Darzi A, Cooke GS, Ward H, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Chadeau-Hyam M. (2023). Design and Implementation of a National SARS-CoV-2 Monitoring Program in England: REACT-1 Study. American journal of public health, 113(5)
Atchison CJ, Whitaker M, Donnelly CA, Chadeau-Hyam M, Riley S, Darzi A, Ashby D, Barclay W, Cooke GS, Elliott P, Ward H. (2023). Characteristics and predictors of persistent symptoms post-COVID-19 in children and young people: a large community cross-sectional study in England. Archives of disease in childhood, 108(7)
Eales O, Page AJ, Tang SN, Walters CE, Wang H, Haw D, Trotter AJ, Le Viet T, Foster-Nyarko E, Prosolek S, Atchison C, Ashby D, Cooke G, Barclay W, Donnelly CA, O'Grady J, Volz E, The Covid-Genomics Uk Cog-Uk Consortium, Darzi A, Ward H, Elliott P, Riley S. (2023). The use of representative community samples to assess SARS-CoV-2 lineage competition: Alpha outcompetes Beta and wild-type in England from January to March 2021. Microbial genomics, 9(2)
Atchison CJ, Moshe M, Brown JC, Whitaker M, Wong NCK, Bharath AA, McKendry RA, Darzi A, Ashby D, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Elliott P, Barclay WS, Cooke GS, Ward H. (2022). Validity of self-testing at home with rapid SARS-CoV-2 antibody detection by lateral flow immunoassay. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
Eales O, Wang H, Haw D, Ainslie KEC, Walters CE, Atchison C, Cooke G, Barclay W, Ward H, Darzi A, Ashby D, Donnelly CA, Elliott P, Riley S. (2022). Trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence during England's roadmap out of lockdown, January to July 2021. PLoS computational biology, 18(11)
Liang JB, Yuan HY, Li KK, Wei WI, Wong SYS, Tang A, Riley S, Kwok KO. (2022). Path to normality: Assessing the level of social-distancing measures relaxation against antibody-resistant SARS-CoV-2 variants in a partially-vaccinated population. Computational and structural biotechnology journal, (20)
Eales O, de Oliveira Martins L, Page AJ, Wang H, Bodinier B, Tang D, Haw D, Jonnerby J, Atchison C, Ashby D, Barclay W, Taylor G, Cooke G, Ward H, Darzi A, Riley S, Elliott P, Donnelly CA, Chadeau-Hyam M. (2022). Dynamics of competing SARS-CoV-2 variants during the Omicron epidemic in England. Nature communications, 13(1)
Eales O, Page AJ, de Oliveira Martins L, Wang H, Bodinier B, Haw D, Jonnerby J, Atchison C, , Ashby D, Barclay W, Taylor G, Cooke G, Ward H, Darzi A, Riley S, Chadeau-Hyam M, Donnelly CA, Elliott P. (2022). SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics in England from September to November 2021: high diversity of Delta sub-lineages and increased transmissibility of AY.4.2. BMC infectious diseases, 22(1)
Cann A, Clarke C, Brown J, Thomson T, Prendecki M, Moshe M, Badhan A, Simmons B, Klaber B, Elliott P, Darzi A, Riley S, Ashby D, Martin P, Gleeson S, Willicombe M, Kelleher P, Ward H, Barclay WS, Cooke GS. (2022). Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody lateral flow assay for antibody prevalence studies following vaccination: a diagnostic accuracy study. Wellcome open research, (6)
Chadeau-Hyam M, Wang H, Eales O, Haw D, Bodinier B, Whitaker M, Walters CE, Ainslie KEC, Atchison C, Fronterre C, Diggle PJ, Page AJ, Trotter AJ, Ashby D, Barclay W, Taylor G, Cooke G, Ward H, Darzi A, Riley S, Donnelly CA, Elliott P, . (2022). SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccine effectiveness in England (REACT-1): a series of cross-sectional random community surveys. The Lancet. Respiratory medicine
Eales O, Ainslie KEC, Walters CE, Wang H, Atchison C, Ashby D, Donnelly CA, Cooke G, Barclay W, Ward H, Darzi A, Elliott P, Riley S. (2022). Appropriately smoothing prevalence data to inform estimates of growth rate and reproduction number. Epidemics, (40)
Brazeau NF, Verity R, Jenks S, Fu H, Whittaker C, Winskill P, Dorigatti I, Walker PGT, Riley S, Schnekenberg RP, Hoeltgebaum H, Mellan TA, Mishra S, Unwin HJT, Watson OJ, Cucunubá ZM, Baguelin M, Whittles L, Bhatt S, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Okell LC. (2022). Estimating the COVID-19 infection fatality ratio accounting for seroreversion using statistical modelling. Communications medicine, (2)
Ward H, Whitaker M, Flower B, Tang SN, Atchison C, Darzi A, Donnelly CA, Cann A, Diggle PJ, Ashby D, Riley S, Barclay WS, Elliott P, Cooke GS. (2022). Population antibody responses following COVID-19 vaccination in 212,102 individuals. Nature communications, 13(1)
Ben-Nun M, Riley P, Turtle J, Riley S. (2022). Consistent pattern of epidemic slowing across many geographies led to longer, flatter initial waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. PLoS computational biology, 18(8)
Whitaker M, Elliott J, Chadeau-Hyam M, Riley S, Darzi A, Cooke G, Ward H, Elliott P. (2022). Persistent COVID-19 symptoms in a community study of 606,434 people in England. Nature communications, 13(1)
Cramer EY, Ray EL, Lopez VK, Bracher J, Brennen A, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, Gneiting T, House KH, Huang Y, Jayawardena D, Kanji AH, Khandelwal A, Le K, Mühlemann A, Niemi J, Shah A, Stark A, Wang Y, Wattanachit N, Zorn MW, Gu Y, Jain S, Bannur N, Deva A, Kulkarni M, Merugu S, Raval A, Shingi S, Tiwari A, White J, Abernethy NF, Woody S, Dahan M, Fox S, Gaither K, Lachmann M, Meyers LA, Scott JG, Tec M, Srivastava A, George GE, Cegan JC, Dettwiller ID, England WP, Farthing MW, Hunter RH, Lafferty B, Linkov I, Mayo ML, Parno MD, Rowland MA, Trump BD, Zhang-James Y, Chen S, Faraone SV, Hess J, Morley CP, Salekin A, Wang D, Corsetti SM, Baer TM, Eisenberg MC, Falb K, Huang Y, Martin ET, McCauley E, Myers RL, Schwarz T, Sheldon D, Gibson GC, Yu R, Gao L, Ma Y, Wu D, Yan X, Jin X, Wang YX, Chen Y, Guo L, Zhao Y, Gu Q, Chen J, Wang L, Xu P, Zhang W, Zou D, Biegel H, Lega J, McConnell S, Nagraj VP, Guertin SL, Hulme-Lowe C, Turner SD, Shi Y, Ban X, Walraven R, Hong QJ, Kong S, van de Walle A, Turtle JA, Ben-Nun M, Riley S, Riley P, Koyluoglu U, DesRoches D, Forli P, Hamory B, Kyriakides C, Leis H, Milliken J, Moloney M, Morgan J, Nirgudkar N, Ozcan G, Piwonka N, Ravi M, Schrader C, Shakhnovich E, Siegel D, Spatz R, Stiefeling C, Wilkinson B, Wong A, Cavany S, España G, Moore S, Oidtman R, Perkins A, Kraus D, Kraus A, Gao Z, Bian J, Cao W, Lavista Ferres J, Li C, Liu TY, Xie X, Zhang S, Zheng S, Vespignani A, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastore Y Piontti A, Xiong X, Zheng A, Baek J, Farias V, Georgescu A, Levi R, Sinha D, Wilde J, Perakis G, Bennouna MA, Nze-Ndong D, Singhvi D, Spantidakis I, Thayaparan L, Tsiourvas A, Sarker A, Jadbabaie A, Shah D, Della Penna N, Celi LA, Sundar S, Wolfinger R, Osthus D, Castro L, Fairchild G, Michaud I, Karlen D, Kinsey M, Mullany LC, Rainwater-Lovett K, Shin L, Tallaksen K, Wilson S, Lee EC, Dent J, Grantz KH, Hill AL, Kaminsky J, Kaminsky K, Keegan LT, Lauer SA, Lemaitre JC, Lessler J, Meredith HR, Perez-Saez J, Shah S, Smith CP, Truelove SA, Wills J, Marshall M, Gardner L, Nixon K, Burant JC, Wang L, Gao L, Gu Z, Kim M, Li X, Wang G, Wang Y, Yu S, Reiner RC, Barber R, Gakidou E, Hay SI, Lim S, Murray C, Pigott D, Gurung HL, Baccam P, Stage SA, Suchoski BT, Prakash BA, Adhikari B, Cui J, Rodríguez A, Tabassum A, Xie J, Keskinocak P, Asplund J, Baxter A, Oruc BE, Serban N, Arik SO, Dusenberry M, Epshteyn A, Kanal E, Le LT, Li CL, Pfister T, Sava D, Sinha R, Tsai T, Yoder N, Yoon J, Zhang L, Abbott S, Bosse NI, Funk S, Hellewell J, Meakin SR, Sherratt K, Zhou M, Kalantari R, Yamana TK, Pei S, Shaman J, Li ML, Bertsimas D, Skali Lami O, Soni S, Tazi Bouardi H, Ayer T, Adee M, Chhatwal J, Dalgic OO, Ladd MA, Linas BP, Mueller P, Xiao J, Wang Y, Wang Q, Xie S, Zeng D, Green A, Bien J, Brooks L, Hu AJ, Jahja M, McDonald D, Narasimhan B, Politsch C, Rajanala S, Rumack A, Simon N, Tibshirani RJ, Tibshirani R, Ventura V, Wasserman L, O'Dea EB, Drake JM, Pagano R, Tran QT, Ho LST, Huynh H, Walker JW, Slayton RB, Johansson MA, Biggerstaff M, Reich NG. (2022). Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(15)
Ainslie KEC, Riley S. (2022). Is annual vaccination best? A modelling study of influenza vaccination strategies in children. Vaccine
Riley S. (2022). Steven Riley's discussion contribution to papers in Session 3 of the Royal Statistical Society's Special Topic Meeting on COVID-19 transmission: 11 June 2021. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society), 185(Suppl 1)
Tildesley MJ, Vassall A, Riley S, Jit M, Sandmann F, Hill EM, Thompson RN, Atkins BD, Edmunds J, Dyson L, Keeling MJ. (2022). Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study. Royal Society open science, 9(8)
Yang B, García-Carreras B, Lessler J, Read JM, Zhu H, Metcalf CJE, Hay JA, Kwok KO, Shen R, Jiang CQ, Guan Y, Riley S, Cummings DA. (2022). Long term intrinsic cycling in human life course antibody responses to influenza A(H3N2): an observational and modeling study. eLife, (11)
Elliott J, Whitaker M, Bodinier B, Eales O, Riley S, Ward H, Cooke G, Darzi A, Chadeau-Hyam M, Elliott P. (2021). Predictive symptoms for COVID-19 in the community: REACT-1 study of over 1 million people. PLoS medicine, 18(9)
Davies B, Araghi M, Moshe M, Gao H, Bennet K, Jenkins J, Atchison C, Darzi A, Ashby D, Riley S, Barclay W, Elliott P, Ward H, Cooke G. (2021). Acceptability, Usability, and Performance of Lateral Flow Immunoassay Tests for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Antibodies: REACT-2 Study of Self-Testing in Nonhealthcare Key Workers. Open forum infectious diseases, 8(11)
Pollett S, Johansson MA, Reich NG, Brett-Major D, Del Valle SY, Venkatramanan S, Lowe R, Porco T, Berry IM, Deshpande A, Kraemer MUG, Blazes DL, Pan-Ngum W, Vespigiani A, Mate SE, Silal SP, Kandula S, Sippy R, Quandelacy TM, Morgan JJ, Ball J, Morton LC, Althouse BM, Pavlin J, van Panhuis W, Riley S, Biggerstaff M, Viboud C, Brady O, Rivers C. (2021). Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines. PLoS medicine, 18(10)
Ward H, Cooke GS, Atchison C, Whitaker M, Elliott J, Moshe M, Brown JC, Flower B, Daunt A, Ainslie K, Ashby D, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Darzi A, Barclay W, Elliott P. (2021). Prevalence of antibody positivity to SARS-CoV-2 following the first peak of infection in England: Serial cross-sectional studies of 365,000 adults. The Lancet regional health. Europe, (4)
Turtle J, Riley P, Ben-Nun M, Riley S. (2021). Accurate influenza forecasts using type-specific incidence data for small geographic units. PLoS computational biology, 17(7)
Kwok KO, Wei WI, Huang Y, Kam KM, Chan EYY, Riley S, Chan HHH, Hui DSC, Wong SYS, Yeoh EK. (2021). Evolving Epidemiological Characteristics of COVID-19 in Hong Kong From January to August 2020: Retrospective Study. Journal of medical Internet research, 23(4)
Riley S, Ainslie KEC, Eales O, Walters CE, Wang H, Atchison C, Fronterre C, Diggle PJ, Ashby D, Donnelly CA, Cooke G, Barclay W, Ward H, Darzi A, Elliott P. (2021). Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2: detection by community viral surveillance. Science (New York, N.Y.)
Riley S, Atchison C, Ashby D, Donnelly CA, Barclay W, Cooke GS, Ward H, Darzi A, Elliott P, . (2021). REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT) of SARS-CoV-2 virus: Study protocol. Wellcome open research, (5)
Kiti MC, Aguolu OG, Liu CY, Mesa AR, Regina R, Woody M, Willebrand K, Couzens C, Bartelsmeyer T, Nelson KN, Jenness S, Riley S, Melegaro A, Ahmed F, Malik F, Lopman BA, Omer SB. (2021). Social contact patterns among employees in 3 U.S. companies during early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, April to June 2020. Epidemics, (36)
Nouvellet P, Bhatia S, Cori A, Ainslie KEC, Baguelin M, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Brazeau NF, Cattarino L, Cooper LV, Coupland H, Cucunuba ZM, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Dighe A, Djaafara BA, Dorigatti I, Eales OD, van Elsland SL, Nascimento FF, FitzJohn RG, Gaythorpe KAM, Geidelberg L, Green WD, Hamlet A, Hauck K, Hinsley W, Imai N, Jeffrey B, Knock E, Laydon DJ, Lees JA, Mangal T, Mellan TA, Nedjati-Gilani G, Parag KV, Pons-Salort M, Ragonnet-Cronin M, Riley S, Unwin HJT, Verity R, Vollmer MAC, Volz E, Walker PGT, Walters CE, Wang H, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Whittles LK, Xi X, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA. (2021). Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission. Nature communications, 12(1)
Gaythorpe KAM, Bhatia S, Mangal T, Unwin HJT, Imai N, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Walters CE, Jauneikaite E, Bayley H, Kont MD, Mousa A, Whittles LK, Riley S, Ferguson NM. (2021). Publisher Correction: Children's role in the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of early surveillance data on susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility. Scientific reports, 11(1)
Colizza V, Grill E, Mikolajczyk R, Cattuto C, Kucharski A, Riley S, Kendall M, Lythgoe K, Bonsall D, Wymant C, Abeler-Dörner L, Ferretti L, Fraser C. (2021). Time to evaluate COVID-19 contact-tracing apps. Nature medicine
Bhatia S, Imai N, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Baguelin M, Boonyasiri A, Cori A, Cucunubá Z, Dorigatti I, FitzJohn R, Fu H, Gaythorpe K, Ghani A, Hamlet A, Hinsley W, Laydon D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Okell L, Riley S, Thompson H, van Elsland S, Volz E, Wang H, Wang Y, Whittaker C, Xi X, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. (2021). Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China. Wellcome open research, (5)
Riley P, Ben-Nun M, Turtle J, Bacon D, Owens AN, Riley S. (2021). COVID-19: On the Disparity in Outcomes Between Military and Civilian Populations. Military medicine
Ward H, Atchison C, Whitaker M, Ainslie KEC, Elliott J, Okell L, Redd R, Ashby D, Donnelly CA, Barclay W, Darzi A, Cooke G, Riley S, Elliott P. (2021). SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in England following the first peak of the pandemic. Nature communications, 12(1)
Gaythorpe KAM, Bhatia S, Mangal T, Unwin HJT, Imai N, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Walters CE, Jauneikaite E, Bayley H, Kont MD, Mousa A, Whittles LK, Riley S, Ferguson NM. (2021). Children's role in the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of early surveillance data on susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility. Scientific reports, 11(1)
Moshe M, Daunt A, Flower B, Simmons B, Brown JC, Frise R, Penn R, Kugathasan R, Petersen C, Stockmann H, Ashby D, Riley S, Atchison C, Taylor GP, Satkunarajah S, Naar L, Klaber R, Badhan A, Rosadas C, Marchesin F, Fernandez N, Sureda-Vives M, Cheeseman H, O'Hara J, Shattock R, Fontana G, Pallett SJC, Rayment M, Jones R, Moore LSP, Ashrafian H, Cherapanov P, Tedder R, McClure M, Ward H, Darzi A, Elliott P, Cooke GS, Barclay WS, . (2021). SARS-CoV-2 lateral flow assays for possible use in national covid-19 seroprevalence surveys (React 2): diagnostic accuracy study. BMJ (Clinical research ed.), (372)
Yang B, Lessler J, Zhu H, Jiang CQ, Read JM, Hay JA, Kwok KO, Shen R, Guan Y, Riley S, Cummings DAT. (2020). Life course exposures continually shape antibody profiles and risk of seroconversion to influenza. PLoS pathogens, 16(7)
Okell LC, Verity R, Katzourakis A, Volz EM, Watson OJ, Mishra S, Walker P, Whittaker C, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Ghani AC, Gandy A, Flaxman S, Ferguson NM, Bhatt S. (2020). Host or pathogen-related factors in COVID-19 severity? - Authors' reply. Lancet, 396(10260)
Ainslie KEC, Walters CE, Fu H, Bhatia S, Wang H, Xi X, Baguelin M, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Boyd O, Cattarino L, Ciavarella C, Cucunuba Z, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Dighe A, Dorigatti I, van Elsland SL, FitzJohn R, Gaythorpe K, Ghani AC, Green W, Hamlet A, Hinsley W, Imai N, Jorgensen D, Knock E, Laydon D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Okell LC, Siveroni I, Thompson HA, Unwin HJT, Verity R, Vollmer M, Walker PGT, Wang Y, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Winskill P, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Riley S. (2020). Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment. Wellcome open research, (5)
Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, Winskill P, Whittaker C, Imai N, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Thompson H, Walker PGT, Fu H, Dighe A, Griffin JT, Baguelin M, Bhatia S, Boonyasiri A, Cori A, Cucunubá Z, FitzJohn R, Gaythorpe K, Green W, Hamlet A, Hinsley W, Laydon D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Riley S, van Elsland S, Volz E, Wang H, Wang Y, Xi X, Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. (2020). Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. The Lancet. Infectious diseases
Quandelacy TM, Cummings DAT, Jiang CQ, Yang B, Kwok KO, Dai B, Shen R, Read JM, Zhu H, Guan Y, Riley S, Lessler J. (2020). Using serological measures to estimate influenza incidence in the presence of secular trends in exposure and immuno-modulation of antibody response. Influenza and other respiratory viruses
Biggerstaff M, Dahlgren FS, Fitzner J, George D, Hammond A, Hall I, Haw D, Imai N, Johansson MA, Kramer S, McCaw JM, Moss R, Pebody R, Read JM, Reed C, Reich NG, Riley S, Vandemaele K, Viboud C, Wu JT. (2020). Coordinating the real-time use of global influenza activity data for better public health planning. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 14(2)
Thompson HA, Imai N, Dighe A, Ainslie KEC, Baguelin M, Bhatia S, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Boyd O, Brazeau NF, Cattarino L, Cooper LV, Coupland H, Cucunuba Z, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Djaafara B, Dorigatti I, Elsland S, FitzJohn R, Fu H, Gaythorpe KAM, Green W, Hallett T, Hamlet A, Haw D, Hayes S, Hinsley W, Jeffrey B, Knock E, Laydon DJ, Lees J, Mangal TD, Mellan T, Mishra S, Mousa A, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Okell L, Parag KV, Ragonnet-Cronin M, Riley S, Unwin HJT, Verity R, Vollmer M, Volz E, Walker PGT, Walters C, Wang H, Wang Y, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Whittles LK, Winskill P, Xi X, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. (2020). SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence on repatriation flights from Wuhan City, China. Journal of travel medicine
Yan AWC, Zhou J, Beauchemin CAA, Russell CA, Barclay WS, Riley S. (2020). Quantifying mechanistic traits of influenza viral dynamics using in vitro data. Epidemics, (33)
Kwok KO, Chan E, Chung PH, Tang A, Wei WI, Zhu C, Riley S, Ip M. (2020). Prevalence and associated factors for carriage of Enterobacteriaceae producing ESBLs or carbapenemase and Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Hong Kong Community. The Journal of infection
Minter A, Hoschler K, Jagne YJ, Sallah H, Armitage E, Lindsey B, Hay JA, Riley S, de Silva TI, Kucharski A. (2020). Estimation of seasonal influenza attack rates and antibody dynamics in children using cross-sectional serological data. The Journal of infectious diseases
Jeffrey B, Walters CE, Ainslie KEC, Eales O, Ciavarella C, Bhatia S, Hayes S, Baguelin M, Boonyasiri A, Brazeau NF, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, FitzJohn RG, Gaythorpe K, Green W, Imai N, Mellan TA, Mishra S, Nouvellet P, Unwin HJT, Verity R, Vollmer M, Whittaker C, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Riley S. (2020). Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with COVID-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK. Wellcome open research, (5)
Moses C. Kiti, Obianuju G. Aguolu, Carol Y. Liu, Ana R. Mesa, Rachel Regina, Kathryn Willebrand, Chandra Couzens, Tilman Bartelsmeyer, Kristin Nelson, Samuel Jenness, Steven Riley, Alessia Melegaro, Faruque Ahmed, Fauzia Malik, Ben Lopman, Saad B. Omer. (2020). Social contact patterns among employees in 3 U.S. companies during early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, April to June 2020. medRxiv
Atchison C, Pristerà P, Cooper E, Papageorgiou V, Redd R, Piggin M, Flower B, Fontana G, Satkunarajah S, Ashrafian H, Lawrence-Jones A, Naar L, Chigwende J, Gibbard S, Riley S, Darzi A, Elliott P, Ashby D, Barclay W, Cooke GS, Ward H. (2020). Usability and acceptability of home-based self-testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies for population surveillance. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
Flower B, Brown JC, Simmons B, Moshe M, Frise R, Penn R, Kugathasan R, Petersen C, Daunt A, Ashby D, Riley S, Atchison CJ, Taylor GP, Satkunarajah S, Naar L, Klaber R, Badhan A, Rosadas C, Khan M, Fernandez N, Sureda-Vives M, Cheeseman HM, O'Hara J, Fontana G, Pallett SJC, Rayment M, Jones R, Moore LSP, McClure MO, Cherepanov P, Tedder R, Ashrafian H, Shattock R, Ward H, Darzi A, Elliot P, Barclay WS, Cooke GS. (2020). Clinical and laboratory evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 lateral flow assays for use in a national COVID-19 seroprevalence survey. Thorax
Okell LC, Verity R, Watson OJ, Mishra S, Walker P, Whittaker C, Katzourakis A, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Ghani AC, Gandy A, Flaxman S, Ferguson NM, Bhatt S. (2020). Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity?. Lancet
Dighe A, Cattarino L, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Skarp J, Imai N, Bhatia S, Gaythorpe KAM, Ainslie KEC, Baguelin M, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Brazeau NF, Cooper LV, Coupland H, Cucunuba Z, Dorigatti I, Eales OD, van Elsland SL, FitzJohn RG, Green WD, Haw DJ, Hinsley W, Knock E, Laydon DJ, Mellan T, Mishra S, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Pons-Salort M, Thompson HA, Unwin HJT, Verity R, Vollmer MAC, Walters CE, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Whittles LK, Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Riley S. (2020). Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions. BMC medicine, 18(1)
Haw DJ, Pung R, Read JM, Riley S. (2020). Strong spatial embedding of social networks generates nonstandard epidemic dynamics independent of degree distribution and clustering. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Flaxman S, Mishra S, Gandy A, Unwin HJT, Mellan TA, Coupland H, Whittaker C, Zhu H, Berah T, Eaton JW, Monod M, , Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Riley SM, Vollmer MAC, Ferguson NM, Okell LC, Bhatt S. (2020). Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature
Hay JA, Minter A, Ainslie KEC, Lessler J, Yang B, Cummings DAT, Kucharski AJ, Riley S. (2020). An open source tool to infer epidemiological and immunological dynamics from serological data: Serosolver. PLoS computational biology, 16(5)
Unwin HJT, Mishra S, Bradley VC, Gandy A, Mellan TA, Coupland H, Ish-Horowicz J, Vollmer MAC, Whittaker C, Filippi SL, Xi X, Monod M, Ratmann O, Hutchinson M, Valka F, Zhu H, Hawryluk I, Milton P, Ainslie KEC, Baguelin M, Boonyasiri A, Brazeau NF, Cattarino L, Cucunuba Z, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Dorigatti I, Eales OD, Eaton JW, van Elsland SL, FitzJohn RG, Gaythorpe KAM, Green W, Hinsley W, Jeffrey B, Knock E, Laydon DJ, Lees J, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Okell L, Parag KV, Siveroni I, Thompson HA, Walker P, Walters CE, Watson OJ, Whittles LK, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Riley S, Donnelly CA, Bhatt S, Flaxman S. (2020). State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States. Nature communications, 11(1)
Fu H, Wang H, Xi X, Boonyasiri A, Wang Y, Hinsley W, Fraser KJ, McCabe R, Olivera Mesa D, Skarp J, Ledda A, Dewé T, Dighe A, Winskill P, van Elsland SL, Ainslie KEC, Baguelin M, Bhatt S, Boyd O, Brazeau NF, Cattarino L, Charles G, Coupland H, Cucunuba ZM, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Eales OD, FitzJohn RG, Flaxman S, Gaythorpe KAM, Ghani AC, Green WD, Hamlet A, Hauck K, Haw DJ, Jeffrey B, Laydon DJ, Lees JA, Mellan T, Mishra S, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Okell L, Parag KV, Ragonnet-Cronin M, Riley S, Schmit N, Thompson HA, Unwin HJT, Verity R, Vollmer MAC, Volz E, Walker PGT, Walters CE, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Whittles LK, Imai N, Bhatia S, Ferguson NM. (2020). Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China. International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, (102)
Imai Natsuko, Dorigatti Ilaria, Cori Anne, Riley Steven, Ferguson Neil M. (2019). Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China V2 (updated to include second Thai case)
Hay JA, Laurie K, White M, Riley S. (2019). Characterising antibody kinetics from multiple influenza infection and vaccination events in ferrets. PLoS computational biology, 15(8)
Suwannahitatorn P, Webster J, Riley S, Mungthin M, Donnelly CA. (2019). Uncooked fish consumption among those at risk of Opisthorchis viverrini infection in central Thailand. PloS one, 14(1)
Ben-Nun M, Riley P, Turtle J, Bacon DP, Riley S. (2019). Forecasting national and regional influenza-like illness for the USA. PLoS computational biology, 15(5)
Kwok KO, Tang A, Wei VWI, Park WH, Yeoh EK, Riley S. (2019). Epidemic Models of Contact Tracing: Systematic Review of Transmission Studies of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. Computational and structural biotechnology journal, (17)
James Turtle, Pete Riley, Michal Ben-Nun, Steven Riley. (2019). Accurate influenza forecasts using type-specific incidence data for small geographical units. MedRxiv
Rivers C, Chretien JP, Riley S, Pavlin JA, Woodward A, Brett-Major D, Maljkovic Berry I, Morton L, Jarman RG, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Reich NG, Meyer D, Snyder MR, Pollett S. (2019). Using "outbreak science" to strengthen the use of models during epidemics. Nature communications, 10(1)
Riley S, McDowell JJ. (2019). The WIG (weighted individual and group) shrinkage estimator. Journal of the experimental analysis of behavior, 111(2)
Kucharski AJ, Lessler J, Cummings DAT, Riley S. (2018). Timescales of influenza A/H3N2 antibody dynamics. PLoS biology, 16(8)
Haw DJ, Cummings DAT, Lessler J, Salje H, Read JM, Riley S. (2018). Differential mobility and local variation in infection attack rate. PLoS computational biology, 15(1)
Hay JA, Nouvellet P, Donnelly CA, Riley S. (2018). Potential inconsistencies in Zika surveillance data and our understanding of risk during pregnancy. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 12(12)
Michal Ben-Nun, Pete Riley, James Turtle, David P. Bacon, and Steven Riley. (2018). National and Regional Influenza-Like-Illness Forecasts for the USA. bioRxiv
Wei VWI, Wong JYT, Perera RAPM, Kwok KO, Fang VJ, Barr IG, Peiris JSM, Riley S, Cowling BJ. (2018). Incidence of influenza A(H3N2) virus infections in Hong Kong in a longitudinal sero-epidemiological study, 2009-2015. PloS one, 13(5)
Kwok KO, Read JM, Tang A, Chen H, Riley S, Kam KM. (2018). A systematic review of transmission dynamic studies of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in non-hospital residential facilities. BMC infectious diseases, 18(1)
Kwok KO, Cowling B, Wei V, Riley S, Read JM. (2018). Temporal variation of human encounters and the number of locations in which they occur: a longitudinal study of Hong Kong residents. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 15(138)
Cremin Í, Watson O, Heffernan A, Imai N, Ahmed N, Bivegete S, Kimani T, Kyriacou D, Mahadevan P, Mustafa R, Pagoni P, Sophiea M, Whittaker C, Beacroft L, Riley S, Fisher MC. (2018). An infectious way to teach students about outbreaks. Epidemics, (23)
Lau MSY, Gibson GJ, Adrakey H, McClelland A, Riley S, Zelner J, Streftaris G, Funk S, Metcalf J, Dalziel BD, Grenfell BT. (2017). A mechanistic spatio-temporal framework for modelling individual-to-individual transmission-With an application to the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak. PLoS computational biology, 13(10)
Nouvellet P, Cori A, Garske T, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Van Kerkhove MD, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Riley S. (2018). A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence. Epidemics, (22)
Pepin KM, Kay SL, Golas BD, Shriner SS, Gilbert AT, Miller RS, Graham AL, Riley S, Cross PC, Samuel MD, Hooten MB, Hoeting JA, Lloyd-Smith JO, Webb CT, Buhnerkempe MG. (2017). Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales. Ecology letters, 20(3)
Lau MS, Dalziel BD, Funk S, McClelland A, Tiffany A, Riley S, Metcalf CJ, Grenfell BT. (2017). Spatial and temporal dynamics of superspreading events in the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola epidemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114(9)
Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Jombart T, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Mills HL, Blake IM. (2017). Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 372(1721)
Garske T, Cori A, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Eckmanns T, Fraser C, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Dye C, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA. (2017). Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013-2016. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 372(1721)
Yuan HY, Baguelin M, Kwok KO, Arinaminpathy N, van Leeuwen E, Riley S. (2017). The impact of stratified immunity on the transmission dynamics of influenza. Epidemics, (20)
Kwok KO, Riley S, Perera RAPM, Wei VWI, Wu P, Wei L, Chu DKW, Barr IG, Malik Peiris JS, Cowling BJ. (2017). Relative incidence and individual-level severity of seasonal influenza A H3N2 compared with 2009 pandemic H1N1. BMC infectious diseases, 17(1)
Pinsent A, Pepin KM, Zhu H, Guan Y, White MT, Riley S. (2017). The persistence of multiple strains of avian influenza in live bird markets. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 284(1868)
Riley P, Cost AA, Riley S. (2016). Intra-Weekly Variations of Influenza-Like Illness in Military Populations. Military medicine, 181(4)
Pitzer VE, Aguas R, Riley S, Loeffen WL, Wood JL, Grenfell BT. (2016). High turnover drives prolonged persistence of influenza in managed pig herds. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 13(119)
Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Bawo L, Bilivogui P, Blake IM, Brennan RJ, Cawthorne A, Cleary E, Clement P, Conteh R, Cori A, Dafae F, Dahl B, Dangou JM, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Fallah M, Ferguson NM, Fiebig L, Fraser C, Garske T, Gonzalez L, Hamblion E, Hamid N, Hersey S, Hinsley W, Jambei A, Jombart T, Kargbo D, Keita S, Kinzer M, George FK, Godefroy B, Gutierrez G, Kannangarage N, Mills HL, Moller T, Meijers S, Mohamed Y, Morgan O, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Nyenswah T, Perea W, Perkins D, Riley S, Rodier G, Rondy M, Sagrado M, Savulescu C, Schafer IJ, Schumacher D, Seyler T, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Wesseh CS, Yoti Z. (2016). Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study. PLoS medicine, 13(11)
Cauchemez S, Nouvellet P, Cori A, Jombart T, Garske T, Clapham H, Moore S, Mills HL, Salje H, Collins C, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Riley S, Truelove S, Algarni H, Alhakeem R, AlHarbi K, Turkistani A, Aguas RJ, Cummings DA, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Lessler J, Fraser C, Al-Barrak A, Ferguson NM. (2016). Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113(32)
Riley S. (2016). Epidemiology: Making high-res Zika maps. Nature microbiology, 1(9)
Kucharski A, Riley S. (2016). Reducing uncertainty about flavivirus infections. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 17(1)
Jiang CQ, Lessler J, Kim L, Kwok KO, Read JM, Wang S, Tan L, Hast M, Zhu H, Guan Y, Riley S, Cummings DA. (2017). Cohort Profile: A study of influenza immunity in the urban and rural Guangzhou region of China: the Fluscape Study. International journal of epidemiology, 46(2)
Truelove S, Zhu H, Lessler J, Riley S, Read JM, Wang S, Kwok KO, Guan Y, Jiang CQ, Cummings DA. (2016). A comparison of hemagglutination inhibition and neutralization assays for characterizing immunity to seasonal influenza A. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 10(6)
Lipsitch M, Barclay W, Raman R, Russell CJ, Belser JA, Cobey S, Kasson PM, Lloyd-Smith JO, Maurer-Stroh S, Riley S, Beauchemin CA, Bedford T, Friedrich TC, Handel A, Herfst S, Murcia PR, Roche B, Wilke CO, Russell CA. (2016). Viral factors in influenza pandemic risk assessment. Elife, (5)
Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Thomas LJ, Van Kerkhove MD. (2016). Ebola Virus Disease among Male and Female Persons in West Africa. The New England journal of medicine, 374(1)
Wu KM, Riley S. (2016). Estimation of the Basic Reproductive Number and Mean Serial Interval of a Novel Pathogen in a Small, Well-Observed Discrete Population. PLoS One, 11(2)
Pinsent A, Fraser C, Ferguson NM, Riley S. (2016). A systematic review of reported reassortant viral lineages of influenza A. BMC infectious diseases, (16)
Riley P, Ben-Nun M, Linker JA, Cost AA, Sanchez JL, George D, Bacon DP, Riley S. (2015). Early Characterization of the Severity and Transmissibility of Pandemic Influenza Using Clinical Episode Data from Multiple Populations. PLoS computational biology, 11(9)
Riley S, Eames K, Isham V, Mollison D, Trapman P. (2015). Five challenges for spatial epidemic models. Epidemics, (10)
Kucharski AJ, Lessler J, Read JM, Zhu H, Jiang CQ, Guan Y, Cummings DA, Riley S. (2015). Estimating the life course of influenza A(H3N2) antibody responses from cross-sectional data. PLoS biology, 13(3)
Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fowler RA, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Murthy S, Nedjati Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Pelletier L, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD. (2015). Ebola virus disease among children in West Africa. The New England journal of medicine, 372(13)
Van Kerkhove MD, Cooper MJ, Cost AA, Sanchez JL, Riley S. (2015). Risk factors for severe outcomes among members of the United States military hospitalized with pneumonia and influenza, 2000-2012. Vaccine, 33(49)
Kucharski AJ, Mills HL, Donnelly CA, Riley S. (2015). Transmission Potential of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus, China, 2013-2014. Emerging infectious diseases, 21(5)
Lipsitch M, Donnelly CA, Fraser C, Blake IM, Cori A, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Garske T, Mills HL, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Hernán MA. (2015). Potential Biases in Estimating Absolute and Relative Case-Fatality Risks during Outbreaks. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 9(7)
Kwok KO, Davoudi B, Riley S, Pourbohloul B. (2015). Early real-time estimation of the basic reproduction number of emerging or reemerging infectious diseases in a community with heterogeneous contact pattern: Using data from Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza as an illustrative example. PloS one, 10(9)
Bedford T, Riley S, Barr IG, Broor S, Chadha M, Cox NJ, Daniels RS, Gunasekaran CP, Hurt AC, Kelso A, Klimov A, Lewis NS, Li X, McCauley JW, Odagiri T, Potdar V, Rambaut A, Shu Y, Skepner E, Smith DJ, Suchard MA, Tashiro M, Wang D, Xu X, Lemey P, Russell CA. (2015). Global circulation patterns of seasonal influenza viruses vary with antigenic drift. Nature, 523(7559)
Chretien JP, Riley S, George DB. (2015). Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic. Elife, (4)
Lau MS, Cowling BJ, Cook AR, Riley S. (2015). Inferring influenza dynamics and control in households. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112(29)
Nouvellet P, Garske T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Hinsley W, Blake IM, Van Kerkhove MD, Cori A, Dorigatti I, Jombart T, Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. (2015). The role of rapid diagnostics in managing Ebola epidemics. Nature, 528(7580)
Mills HL, Riley S. (2014). The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks. PLoS computational biology, 10(4)
Kucharski AJ, Kwok KO, Wei VW, Cowling BJ, Read JM, Lessler J, Cummings DA, Riley S. (2014). The contribution of social behaviour to the transmission of influenza A in a human population. PLoS pathogens, 10(6)
Pinsent A, Blake IM, White MT, Riley S. (2014). Surveillance of low pathogenic novel H7N9 avian influenza in commercial poultry barns: detection of outbreaks and estimation of virus introduction time. BMC infectious diseases, (14)
Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Blake IM, Brennan R, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Formenty P, Fraser C, Garcia E, Garske T, Hinsley W, Holmes D, Hugonnet S, Iyengar S, Jombart T, Krishnan R, Meijers S, Mills HL, Mohamed Y, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Pelletier L, Perkins D, Riley S, Sagrado M, Schnitzler J, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Varsaneux O, Wijekoon Kannangarage N. (2015). West African Ebola epidemic after one year--slowing but not yet under control. The New England journal of medicine, 372(6)
Aylward B, Barboza P, Bawo L, Bertherat E, Bilivogui P, Blake I, Brennan R, Briand S, Chakauya JM, Chitala K, Conteh RM, Cori A, Croisier A, Dangou JM, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Formenty P, Fuhrer C, Fukuda K, Garske T, Gasasira A, Gbanyan S, Graaff P, Heleze E, Jambai A, Jombart T, Kasolo F, Kadiobo AM, Keita S, Kertesz D, Koné M, Lane C, Markoff J, Massaquoi M, Mills H, Mulba JM, Musa E, Myhre J, Nasidi A, Nilles E, Nouvellet P, Nshimirimana D, Nuttall I, Nyenswah T, Olu O, Pendergast S, Perea W, Polonsky J, Riley S, Ronveaux O, Sakoba K, Santhana Gopala Krishnan R, Senga M, Shuaib F, Van Kerkhove MD, Vaz R, Wijekoon Kannangarage N, Yoti Z. (2014). Ebola virus disease in West Africa--the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections. The New England journal of medicine, 371(16)
Wu KM, Riley S. (2014). Simulation-guided design of serological surveys of the cumulative incidence of influenza infection. BMC infectious diseases, (14)
Russell CA, Kasson PM, Donis RO, Riley S, Dunbar J, Rambaut A, Asher J, Burke S, Davis CT, Garten RJ, Gnanakaran S, Hay SI, Herfst S, Lewis NS, Lloyd-Smith JO, Macken CA, Maurer-Stroh S, Neuhaus E, Parrish CR, Pepin KM, Shepard SS, Smith DL, Suarez DL, Trock SC, Widdowson MA, George DB, Lipsitch M, Bloom JD. (2014). Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment. eLife, (3)
Kwok KO, Cowling BJ, Wei VW, Wu KM, Read JM, Lessler J, Cummings DA, Peiris JS, Riley S. (2014). Social contacts and the locations in which they occur as risk factors for influenza infection. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 281(1789)
Kucharski A, Mills H, Pinsent A, Fraser C, Van Kerkhove M, Donnelly CA, Riley S. (2014). Distinguishing Between Reservoir Exposure and Human-to-Human Transmission for Emerging Pathogens Using Case Onset Data. PLoS currents, (6)
Read JM, Lessler J, Riley S, Wang S, Tan LJ, Kwok KO, Guan Y, Jiang CQ, Cummings DA. (2014). Social mixing patterns in rural and urban areas of southern China. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 281(1785)
Riley S. (2014). Phylogenetic evidence for a mild H1 pandemic in the early 1900s. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(22)
Riley S. (2013). Complex disease dynamics and the design of influenza vaccination programs. PLoS medicine, 10(11)
Kwok KO, Leung GM, Mak P, Riley S. (2013). Antiviral stockpiles for influenza pandemics from the household perspective: treatment alone versus treatment with prophylaxis. Epidemics, 5(2)
Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Rambaut A, Enouf V, van der Werf S, Ferguson NM. (2013). Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 14(1)
Riley P, Ben-Nun M, Armenta R, Linker JA, Eick AA, Sanchez JL, George D, Bacon DP, Riley S. (2013). Multiple estimates of transmissibility for the 2009 influenza pandemic based on influenza-like-illness data from small US military populations. PLoS computational biology, 9(5)
Pepin KM, Lloyd-Smith JO, Webb CT, Holcomb K, Zhu H, Guan Y, Riley S. (2013). Minimizing the threat of pandemic emergence from avian influenza in poultry systems. BMC infectious diseases, (13)
Cowling B, Desenclos JC, Riley S, Simonsen L, Viboud C. (2013). PLOS Currents: Outbreaks --- For findings that the world just can't wait to see. PLoS currents, (5)
Pepin KM, Wang J, Webb CT, Hoeting JA, Poss M, Hudson PJ, Hong W, Zhu H, Guan Y, Riley S. (2013). Anticipating the prevalence of avian influenza subtypes H9 and H5 in live-bird markets. PLoS One, 8(2)
Pepin KM, Wang J, Webb CT, Smith GJ, Poss M, Hudson PJ, Hong W, Zhu H, Riley S, Guan Y. (2012). Multiannual patterns of influenza A transmission in Chinese live bird market systems. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 7(1)
Van Kerkhove MD, Riley S, Lipsitch M, Guan Y, Monto AS, Webster RG, Zambon M, Nicoll A, Peiris JS, Ferguson NM. (2012). Comment on "Seroevidence for H5N1 influenza infections in humans: meta-analysis". Science (New York, N.Y.), 336(6088)
Lessler J, Riley S, Read JM, Wang S, Zhu H, Smith GJ, Guan Y, Jiang CQ, Cummings DA. (2012). Evidence for antigenic seniority in influenza A (H3N2) antibody responses in southern China. PLoS pathogens, 8(7)
Riley S, Leung GM, Ho LM, Cowling BJ. (2012). Transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus in Hong Kong. Hong Kong medical journal = Xianggang yi xue za zhi, (18 Suppl 2)
Riley S, Kwok KO, Wu KM, Ning DY, Cowling BJ, Wu JT, Ho LM, Tsang T, Lo SV, Chu DK, Ma ES, Peiris JS. (2011). Epidemiological characteristics of 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza based on paired sera from a longitudinal community cohort study. PLoS medicine, 8(6)
Kwok KO, Leung GM, Riley S. (2011). Modelling the proportion of influenza infections within households during pandemic and non-pandemic years. PLoS One, 6(7)
Lessler J, Cummings DA, Read JM, Wang S, Zhu H, Smith GJ, Guan Y, Jiang CQ, Riley S. (2011). Location-specific patterns of exposure to recent pre-pandemic strains of influenza A in southern China. Nature communications, (2)
Wu JT, Ma ES, Lee CK, Chu DK, Ho PL, Shen AL, Ho A, Hung IF, Riley S, Ho LM, Lin CK, Tsang T, Lo SV, Lau YL, Leung GM, Cowling BJ, Peiris JS. (2011). A serial cross-sectional serologic survey of 2009 Pandemic (H1N1) in Hong Kong: implications for future pandemic influenza surveillance. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 5(Suppl 1)
Van Kerkhove MD, Asikainen T, Becker NG, Bjorge S, Desenclos JC, dos Santos T, Fraser C, Leung GM, Lipsitch M, Longini IM Jr., McBryde ES, Roth CE, Shay DK, Smith DJ, Wallinga J, White PJ, Ferguson NM, Riley S, . (2010). Studies needed to address public health challenges of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: insights from modeling. PLoS medicine, 7(6)
Cowling BJ, Lau LL, Wu P, Wong HW, Fang VJ, Riley S, Nishiura H. (2010). Entry screening to delay local transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1). BMC infectious diseases, (10)
Wu JT, Cowling BJ, Lau EH, Ip DK, Ho LM, Tsang T, Chuang SK, Leung PY, Lo SV, Liu SH, Riley S. (2010). School closure and mitigation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Hong Kong. Emerging infectious diseases, 16(3)
Wu JT, Ma ES, Lee CK, Chu DK, Ho PL, Shen AL, Ho A, Hung IF, Riley S, Ho LM, Lin CK, Tsang T, Lo SV, Lau YL, Leung GM, Cowling BJ, Malik Peiris JS. (2010). The infection attack rate and severity of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza in Hong Kong. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 51(10)
Riley S. (2010). Coping without farm location data during a foot-and-mouth outbreak. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107(3)
White LF, Wallinga J, Finelli L, Reed C, Riley S, Lipsitch M, Pagano M. (2009). Estimation of the reproductive number and the serial interval in early phase of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in the USA. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 3(6)
Presanis AM, De Angelis D, , Hagy A, Reed C, Riley S, Cooper BS, Finelli L, Biedrzycki P, Lipsitch M. (2009). The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: a Bayesian analysis. PLoS medicine, 6(12)
Lipsitch M, Riley S, Cauchemez S, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. (2009). Managing and reducing uncertainty in an emerging influenza pandemic. The New England journal of medicine, 361(2)
Redmond EC, Griffith CJ, Riley S. (2009). Contamination of bottles used for feeding reconstituted powdered infant formula and implications for public health. Perspectives in public health, 129(2)
Presanis AM, Lipsitch M, Daniela De Angelis, , Hagy A, Reed C, Riley S, Cooper B, Biedrzycki P, Finelli L, B J. (2009). The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, April - July 2009. PLoS currents, (1)
Wu JT, Leung GM, Lipsitch M, Cooper BS, Riley S. (2009). Hedging against antiviral resistance during the next influenza pandemic using small stockpiles of an alternative chemotherapy. PLoS medicine, 6(5)
Cowling BJ, Fang VJ, Riley S, Malik Peiris JS, Leung GM. (2009). Estimation of the serial interval of influenza. Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 20(3)
Lipsitch M, Lajous M, O'Hagan JJ, Cohen T, Miller JC, Goldstein E, Danon L, Wallinga J, Riley S, Dowell SF, Reed C, McCarron M. (2009). Use of cumulative incidence of novel influenza A/H1N1 in foreign travelers to estimate lower bounds on cumulative incidence in Mexico. PLoS One, 4(9)
Riley S, Carabin H, Bélisle P, Joseph L, Tallo V, Balolong E, Willingham AL, Fernandez TJ, Gonzales RO, Olveda R, McGarvey ST. (2008). Multi-host transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum in Samar province, the Philippines. PLoS medicine, 5(1)
Riley S. (2008). A prospective study of spatial clusters gives valuable insights into dengue transmission. PLoS medicine, 5(11)
Riley S, Wu JT, Leung GM. (2007). Optimizing the dose of pre-pandemic influenza vaccines to reduce the infection attack rate. PLoS medicine, 4(6)
Riley S. (2007). Large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious disease. Science (New York, N.Y.), 316(5829)
Kwok KO, Leung GM, Lam WY, Riley S. (2007). Using models to identify routes of nosocomial infection: a large hospital outbreak of SARS in Hong Kong. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 274(1610)
Riley S. (2007). Doping destroys the story at the heart of cycling. Nature, 449(7160)
Wu JT, Riley S, Leung GM. (2007). Spatial considerations for the allocation of pre-pandemic influenza vaccination in the United States. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 274(1627)
Tatem AJ, Riley S. (2007). Effect of poor census data on population maps. Science (New York, N.Y.), 318(5847)
Cowling BJ, Wong IO, Ho LM, Riley S, Leung GM. (2006). Methods for monitoring influenza surveillance data. International journal of epidemiology, 35(5)
Riley S, Ferguson NM. (2006). Smallpox transmission and control: spatial dynamics in Great Britain. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103(33)
Wu JT, Riley S, Fraser C, Leung GM. (2006). Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions. PLoS medicine, 3(9)
Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, Burke DS. (2005). Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature, 437(7056)
Riley S, Carabin H, Marshall C, Olveda R, Willingham AL, McGarvey ST. (2005). Estimating and modeling the dynamics of the intensity of infection with schistosoma japonicum in villagers of leyte, Philippines. Part II: Intensity-specific transmission of S. japonicum. The schistosomiasis transmission and ecology project. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 72(6)
Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM. (2004). Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101(16)
Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Abu-Raddad LJ, Hedley AJ, Leung GM, Ho LM, Lam TH, Thach TQ, Chau P, Chan KP, Lo SV, Leung PY, Tsang T, Ho W, Lee KH, Lau EM, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM. (2003). Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions. Science (New York, N.Y.), 300(5627)
Riley S, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. (2003). Robust parameter estimation techniques for stochastic within-host macroparasite models. Journal of theoretical biology, 225(4)
Riley C, Riley S. (2003). Influenza and pneumococcal disease in the community. Nursing standard (Royal College of Nursing (Great Britain) : 1987), 18(4)
If you’d like to update your profile, please email modifications to questions@midasnetwork.us.