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Steven Riley

Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics

Education

Affiliations

Projects

Papers

Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, Winskill P, Whittaker C, Imai N, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Thompson H, Walker PGT, Fu H, Dighe A, Griffin JT, Baguelin M, Bhatia S, Boonyasiri A, Cori A, Cucunubá Z, FitzJohn R, Gaythorpe K, Green W, Hamlet A, Hinsley W, Laydon D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Riley S, van Elsland S, Volz E, Wang H, Wang Y, Xi X, Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. (2020). Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. The Lancet. Infectious diseases

Biggerstaff M, Dahlgren FS, Fitzner J, George D, Hammond A, Hall I, Haw D, Imai N, Johansson MA, Kramer S, McCaw JM, Moss R, Pebody R, Read JM, Reed C, Reich NG, Riley S, Vandemaele K, Viboud C, Wu JT. (2020). Coordinating the real-time use of global influenza activity data for better public health planning. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 14(2)

Thompson HA, Imai N, Dighe A, Ainslie KEC, Baguelin M, Bhatia S, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Boyd O, Brazeau NF, Cattarino L, Cooper LV, Coupland H, Cucunuba Z, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Djaafara B, Dorigatti I, Elsland S, FitzJohn R, Fu H, Gaythorpe KAM, Green W, Hallett T, Hamlet A, Haw D, Hayes S, Hinsley W, Jeffrey B, Knock E, Laydon DJ, Lees J, Mangal TD, Mellan T, Mishra S, Mousa A, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Okell L, Parag KV, Ragonnet-Cronin M, Riley S, Unwin HJT, Verity R, Vollmer M, Volz E, Walker PGT, Walters C, Wang H, Wang Y, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Whittles LK, Winskill P, Xi X, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. (2020). SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence on repatriation flights from Wuhan City, China. Journal of travel medicine

Kwok KO, Chan E, Chung PH, Tang A, Wei WI, Zhu C, Riley S, Ip M. (2020). Prevalence and associated factors for carriage of Enterobacteriaceae producing ESBLs or carbapenemase and Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Hong Kong Community. The Journal of infection

Minter A, Hoschler K, Jagne YJ, Sallah H, Armitage E, Lindsey B, Hay JA, Riley S, de Silva TI, Kucharski A. (2020). Estimation of seasonal influenza attack rates and antibody dynamics in children using cross-sectional serological data. The Journal of infectious diseases

Atchison C, Pristerà P, Cooper E, Papageorgiou V, Redd R, Piggin M, Flower B, Fontana G, Satkunarajah S, Ashrafian H, Lawrence-Jones A, Naar L, Chigwende J, Gibbard S, Riley S, Darzi A, Elliott P, Ashby D, Barclay W, Cooke GS, Ward H. (2020). Usability and acceptability of home-based self-testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies for population surveillance. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

Flower B, Brown JC, Simmons B, Moshe M, Frise R, Penn R, Kugathasan R, Petersen C, Daunt A, Ashby D, Riley S, Atchison CJ, Taylor GP, Satkunarajah S, Naar L, Klaber R, Badhan A, Rosadas C, Khan M, Fernandez N, Sureda-Vives M, Cheeseman HM, O'Hara J, Fontana G, Pallett SJC, Rayment M, Jones R, Moore LSP, McClure MO, Cherepanov P, Tedder R, Ashrafian H, Shattock R, Ward H, Darzi A, Elliot P, Barclay WS, Cooke GS. (2020). Clinical and laboratory evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 lateral flow assays for use in a national COVID-19 seroprevalence survey. Thorax

Okell LC, Verity R, Watson OJ, Mishra S, Walker P, Whittaker C, Katzourakis A, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Ghani AC, Gandy A, Flaxman S, Ferguson NM, Bhatt S. (2020). Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity?. Lancet

Haw DJ, Pung R, Read JM, Riley S. (2020). Strong spatial embedding of social networks generates nonstandard epidemic dynamics independent of degree distribution and clustering. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Flaxman S, Mishra S, Gandy A, Unwin HJT, Mellan TA, Coupland H, Whittaker C, Zhu H, Berah T, Eaton JW, Monod M, , Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Riley SM, Vollmer MAC, Ferguson NM, Okell LC, Bhatt S. (2020). Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature

Hay JA, Minter A, Ainslie KEC, Lessler J, Yang B, Cummings DAT, Kucharski AJ, Riley S. (2020). An open source tool to infer epidemiological and immunological dynamics from serological data: Serosolver. PLoS computational biology, 16(5)

Yang B, Lessler J, Zhu H, Jiang CQ, Read JM, Hay JA, Kwok KO, Shen R, Guan Y, Riley S, Cummings DAT. (2020). Life course exposures continually shape antibody profiles and risk of seroconversion to influenza. PLoS pathogens, 16(7)

Imai Natsuko, Dorigatti Ilaria, Cori Anne, Riley Steven, Ferguson Neil M. (2020). Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China V2 (updated to include second Thai case)

Suwannahitatorn P, Webster J, Riley S, Mungthin M, Donnelly CA. (2019). Uncooked fish consumption among those at risk of Opisthorchis viverrini infection in central Thailand. PloS one, 14(1)

Kwok KO, Tang A, Wei VWI, Park WH, Yeoh EK, Riley S. (2019). Epidemic Models of Contact Tracing: Systematic Review of Transmission Studies of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. Computational and structural biotechnology journal, (17)

James Turtle, Pete Riley, Michal Ben-Nun, Steven Riley. (2019). Accurate influenza forecasts using type-specific incidence data for small geographical units. MedRxiv

Rivers C, Chretien JP, Riley S, Pavlin JA, Woodward A, Brett-Major D, Maljkovic Berry I, Morton L, Jarman RG, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Reich NG, Meyer D, Snyder MR, Pollett S. (2019). Using "outbreak science" to strengthen the use of models during epidemics. Nature communications, 10(1)

Riley S, McDowell JJ. (2019). The WIG (weighted individual and group) shrinkage estimator. Journal of the experimental analysis of behavior, 111(2)

Ben-Nun M, Riley P, Turtle J, Bacon DP, Riley S. (2019). Forecasting national and regional influenza-like illness for the USA. PLoS computational biology, 15(5)

Haw DJ, Cummings DAT, Lessler J, Salje H, Read JM, Riley S. (2019). Differential mobility and local variation in infection attack rate. PLoS computational biology, 15(1)

Hay JA, Laurie K, White M, Riley S. (2019). Characterising antibody kinetics from multiple influenza infection and vaccination events in ferrets. PLoS computational biology, 15(8)

Michal Ben-Nun, Pete Riley, James Turtle, David P. Bacon, and Steven Riley. (2018). National and Regional Influenza-Like-Illness Forecasts for the USA. bioRxiv

Wei VWI, Wong JYT, Perera RAPM, Kwok KO, Fang VJ, Barr IG, Peiris JSM, Riley S, Cowling BJ. (2018). Incidence of influenza A(H3N2) virus infections in Hong Kong in a longitudinal sero-epidemiological study, 2009-2015. PloS one, 13(5)

Kwok KO, Read JM, Tang A, Chen H, Riley S, Kam KM. (2018). A systematic review of transmission dynamic studies of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in non-hospital residential facilities. BMC infectious diseases, 18(1)

Kucharski AJ, Lessler J, Cummings DAT, Riley S. (2018). Timescales of influenza A/H3N2 antibody dynamics. PLoS biology, 16(8)

Kwok KO, Cowling B, Wei V, Riley S, Read JM. (2018). Temporal variation of human encounters and the number of locations in which they occur: a longitudinal study of Hong Kong residents. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 15(138)

Hay JA, Nouvellet P, Donnelly CA, Riley S. (2018). Potential inconsistencies in Zika surveillance data and our understanding of risk during pregnancy. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 12(12)

Cremin Í, Watson O, Heffernan A, Imai N, Ahmed N, Bivegete S, Kimani T, Kyriacou D, Mahadevan P, Mustafa R, Pagoni P, Sophiea M, Whittaker C, Beacroft L, Riley S, Fisher MC. (2018). An infectious way to teach students about outbreaks. Epidemics, (23)

Nouvellet P, Cori A, Garske T, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Van Kerkhove MD, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Riley S. (2018). A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence. Epidemics, (22)

Pepin KM, Kay SL, Golas BD, Shriner SS, Gilbert AT, Miller RS, Graham AL, Riley S, Cross PC, Samuel MD, Hooten MB, Hoeting JA, Lloyd-Smith JO, Webb CT, Buhnerkempe MG. (2017). Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales. Ecology letters, 20(3)

Lau MS, Dalziel BD, Funk S, McClelland A, Tiffany A, Riley S, Metcalf CJ, Grenfell BT. (2017). Spatial and temporal dynamics of superspreading events in the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola epidemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114(9)

Yuan HY, Baguelin M, Kwok KO, Arinaminpathy N, van Leeuwen E, Riley S. (2017). The impact of stratified immunity on the transmission dynamics of influenza. Epidemics, (20)

Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Jombart T, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Mills HL, Blake IM. (2017). Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 372(1721)

Garske T, Cori A, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Eckmanns T, Fraser C, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Dye C, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA. (2017). Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013-2016. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 372(1721)

Kwok KO, Riley S, Perera RAPM, Wei VWI, Wu P, Wei L, Chu DKW, Barr IG, Malik Peiris JS, Cowling BJ. (2017). Relative incidence and individual-level severity of seasonal influenza A H3N2 compared with 2009 pandemic H1N1. BMC infectious diseases, 17(1)

Pinsent A, Pepin KM, Zhu H, Guan Y, White MT, Riley S. (2017). The persistence of multiple strains of avian influenza in live bird markets. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 284(1868)

Cauchemez S, Nouvellet P, Cori A, Jombart T, Garske T, Clapham H, Moore S, Mills HL, Salje H, Collins C, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Riley S, Truelove S, Algarni H, Alhakeem R, AlHarbi K, Turkistani A, Aguas RJ, Cummings DA, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Lessler J, Fraser C, Al-Barrak A, Ferguson NM. (2016). Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113(32)

Riley S. (2016). Epidemiology: Making high-res Zika maps. Nature microbiology, 1(9)

Kucharski A, Riley S. (2017). Reducing uncertainty about flavivirus infections. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 17(1)

Jiang CQ, Lessler J, Kim L, Kwok KO, Read JM, Wang S, Tan L, Hast M, Zhu H, Guan Y, Riley S, Cummings DA. (2017). Cohort Profile: A study of influenza immunity in the urban and rural Guangzhou region of China: the Fluscape Study. International journal of epidemiology, 46(2)

Truelove S, Zhu H, Lessler J, Riley S, Read JM, Wang S, Kwok KO, Guan Y, Jiang CQ, Cummings DA. (2016). A comparison of hemagglutination inhibition and neutralization assays for characterizing immunity to seasonal influenza A. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 10(6)

Lipsitch M, Barclay W, Raman R, Russell CJ, Belser JA, Cobey S, Kasson PM, Lloyd-Smith JO, Maurer-Stroh S, Riley S, Beauchemin CA, Bedford T, Friedrich TC, Handel A, Herfst S, Murcia PR, Roche B, Wilke CO, Russell CA. (2016). Viral factors in influenza pandemic risk assessment. Elife, (5)

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Thomas LJ, Van Kerkhove MD. (2016). Ebola Virus Disease among Male and Female Persons in West Africa. The New England journal of medicine, 374(1)

Wu KM, Riley S. (2016). Estimation of the Basic Reproductive Number and Mean Serial Interval of a Novel Pathogen in a Small, Well-Observed Discrete Population. PLoS One, 11(2)

Pinsent A, Fraser C, Ferguson NM, Riley S. (2016). A systematic review of reported reassortant viral lineages of influenza A. BMC infectious diseases, (16)

Riley P, Cost AA, Riley S. (2016). Intra-Weekly Variations of Influenza-Like Illness in Military Populations. Military medicine, 181(4)

Pitzer VE, Aguas R, Riley S, Loeffen WL, Wood JL, Grenfell BT. (2016). High turnover drives prolonged persistence of influenza in managed pig herds. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 13(119)

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Bawo L, Bilivogui P, Blake IM, Brennan RJ, Cawthorne A, Cleary E, Clement P, Conteh R, Cori A, Dafae F, Dahl B, Dangou JM, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Fallah M, Ferguson NM, Fiebig L, Fraser C, Garske T, Gonzalez L, Hamblion E, Hamid N, Hersey S, Hinsley W, Jambei A, Jombart T, Kargbo D, Keita S, Kinzer M, George FK, Godefroy B, Gutierrez G, Kannangarage N, Mills HL, Moller T, Meijers S, Mohamed Y, Morgan O, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Nyenswah T, Perea W, Perkins D, Riley S, Rodier G, Rondy M, Sagrado M, Savulescu C, Schafer IJ, Schumacher D, Seyler T, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Wesseh CS, Yoti Z. (2016). Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study. PLoS medicine, 13(11)

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fowler RA, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Murthy S, Nedjati Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Pelletier L, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD. (2015). Ebola virus disease among children in West Africa. The New England journal of medicine, 372(13)

Van Kerkhove MD, Cooper MJ, Cost AA, Sanchez JL, Riley S. (2015). Risk factors for severe outcomes among members of the United States military hospitalized with pneumonia and influenza, 2000-2012. Vaccine, 33(49)

Pete Riley, Michal Ben-Nun, Jon Linker, Angelia Cost, Jose Sanchez Jr, Dylan George, David Bacon, Steven Riley. (2015). Early Characterization of the Severity and Transmissibility of Pandemic Influenza Using Clinical Episode Data from Multiple Populations. PLoS Computational Biology, 11(9)

Kucharski AJ, Mills HL, Donnelly CA, Riley S. (2015). Transmission Potential of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus, China, 2013-2014. Emerging infectious diseases, 21(5)

Lipsitch M, Donnelly CA, Fraser C, Blake IM, Cori A, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Garske T, Mills HL, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Hernán MA. (2015). Potential Biases in Estimating Absolute and Relative Case-Fatality Risks during Outbreaks. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 9(7)

Kwok KO, Davoudi B, Riley S, Pourbohloul B. (2015). Early real-time estimation of the basic reproduction number of emerging or reemerging infectious diseases in a community with heterogeneous contact pattern: Using data from Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza as an illustrative example. PloS one, 10(9)

Bedford T, Riley S, Barr IG, Broor S, Chadha M, Cox NJ, Daniels RS, Gunasekaran CP, Hurt AC, Kelso A, Klimov A, Lewis NS, Li X, McCauley JW, Odagiri T, Potdar V, Rambaut A, Shu Y, Skepner E, Smith DJ, Suchard MA, Tashiro M, Wang D, Xu X, Lemey P, Russell CA. (2015). Global circulation patterns of seasonal influenza viruses vary with antigenic drift. Nature, 523(7559)

Chretien JP, Riley S, George DB. (2015). Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic. Elife, (4)

Lau MS, Cowling BJ, Cook AR, Riley S. (2015). Inferring influenza dynamics and control in households. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112(29)

Nouvellet P, Garske T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Hinsley W, Blake IM, Van Kerkhove MD, Cori A, Dorigatti I, Jombart T, Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. (2015). The role of rapid diagnostics in managing Ebola epidemics. Nature, 528(7580)

Riley S, Eames K, Isham V, Mollison D, Trapman P. (2015). Five challenges for spatial epidemic models. Epidemics, (10)

Kucharski AJ, Lessler J, Read JM, Zhu H, Jiang CQ, Guan Y, Cummings DA, Riley S. (2015). Estimating the life course of influenza A(H3N2) antibody responses from cross-sectional data. PLoS biology, 13(3)

Riley P, Ben-Nun M, Linker JA, Cost AA, Sanchez JL, George D, Bacon DP, Riley S. (2015). Early Characterization of the Severity and Transmissibility of Pandemic Influenza Using Clinical Episode Data from Multiple Populations. PLoS computational biology, 11(9)

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Blake IM, Brennan R, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Formenty P, Fraser C, Garcia E, Garske T, Hinsley W, Holmes D, Hugonnet S, Iyengar S, Jombart T, Krishnan R, Meijers S, Mills HL, Mohamed Y, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Pelletier L, Perkins D, Riley S, Sagrado M, Schnitzler J, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Varsaneux O, Wijekoon Kannangarage N. (2015). West African Ebola epidemic after one year--slowing but not yet under control. The New England journal of medicine, 372(6)

Aylward B, Barboza P, Bawo L, Bertherat E, Bilivogui P, Blake I, Brennan R, Briand S, Chakauya JM, Chitala K, Conteh RM, Cori A, Croisier A, Dangou JM, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Formenty P, Fuhrer C, Fukuda K, Garske T, Gasasira A, Gbanyan S, Graaff P, Heleze E, Jambai A, Jombart T, Kasolo F, Kadiobo AM, Keita S, Kertesz D, Koné M, Lane C, Markoff J, Massaquoi M, Mills H, Mulba JM, Musa E, Myhre J, Nasidi A, Nilles E, Nouvellet P, Nshimirimana D, Nuttall I, Nyenswah T, Olu O, Pendergast S, Perea W, Polonsky J, Riley S, Ronveaux O, Sakoba K, Santhana Gopala Krishnan R, Senga M, Shuaib F, Van Kerkhove MD, Vaz R, Wijekoon Kannangarage N, Yoti Z. (2014). Ebola virus disease in West Africa--the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections. The New England journal of medicine, 371(16)

Wu KM, Riley S. (2014). Simulation-guided design of serological surveys of the cumulative incidence of influenza infection. BMC infectious diseases, (14)

Russell CA, Kasson PM, Donis RO, Riley S, Dunbar J, Rambaut A, Asher J, Burke S, Davis CT, Garten RJ, Gnanakaran S, Hay SI, Herfst S, Lewis NS, Lloyd-Smith JO, Macken CA, Maurer-Stroh S, Neuhaus E, Parrish CR, Pepin KM, Shepard SS, Smith DL, Suarez DL, Trock SC, Widdowson MA, George DB, Lipsitch M, Bloom JD. (2014). Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment. eLife, (3)

Kwok KO, Cowling BJ, Wei VW, Wu KM, Read JM, Lessler J, Cummings DA, Peiris JS, Riley S. (2014). Social contacts and the locations in which they occur as risk factors for influenza infection. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 281(1789)

Kucharski A, Mills H, Pinsent A, Fraser C, Van Kerkhove M, Donnelly CA, Riley S. (2014). Distinguishing Between Reservoir Exposure and Human-to-Human Transmission for Emerging Pathogens Using Case Onset Data. PLoS currents, (6)

Read JM, Lessler J, Riley S, Wang S, Tan LJ, Kwok KO, Guan Y, Jiang CQ, Cummings DA. (2014). Social mixing patterns in rural and urban areas of southern China. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 281(1785)

Riley S. (2014). Phylogenetic evidence for a mild H1 pandemic in the early 1900s. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(22)

Mills HL, Riley S. (2014). The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks. PLoS computational biology, 10(4)

Kucharski AJ, Kwok KO, Wei VW, Cowling BJ, Read JM, Lessler J, Cummings DA, Riley S. (2014). The contribution of social behaviour to the transmission of influenza A in a human population. PLoS pathogens, 10(6)

Pinsent A, Blake IM, White MT, Riley S. (2014). Surveillance of low pathogenic novel H7N9 avian influenza in commercial poultry barns: detection of outbreaks and estimation of virus introduction time. BMC infectious diseases, (14)

Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Rambaut A, Enouf V, van der Werf S, Ferguson NM. (2014). Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 14(1)

Riley P, Ben-Nun M, Armenta R, Linker JA, Eick AA, Sanchez JL, George D, Bacon DP, Riley S. (2013). Multiple estimates of transmissibility for the 2009 influenza pandemic based on influenza-like-illness data from small US military populations. PLoS computational biology, 9(5)

Pepin KM, Lloyd-Smith JO, Webb CT, Holcomb K, Zhu H, Guan Y, Riley S. (2013). Minimizing the threat of pandemic emergence from avian influenza in poultry systems. BMC infectious diseases, (13)

Cowling B, Desenclos JC, Riley S, Simonsen L, Viboud C. (2013). PLOS Currents: Outbreaks --- For findings that the world just can't wait to see. PLoS currents, (5)

Pepin KM, Wang J, Webb CT, Hoeting JA, Poss M, Hudson PJ, Hong W, Zhu H, Guan Y, Riley S. (2013). Anticipating the prevalence of avian influenza subtypes H9 and H5 in live-bird markets. PLoS One, 8(2)

Riley S. (2013). Complex disease dynamics and the design of influenza vaccination programs. PLoS medicine, 10(11)

Kwok KO, Leung GM, Mak P, Riley S. (2013). Antiviral stockpiles for influenza pandemics from the household perspective: treatment alone versus treatment with prophylaxis. Epidemics, 5(2)

Pepin KM, Wang J, Webb CT, Smith GJ, Poss M, Hudson PJ, Hong W, Zhu H, Riley S, Guan Y. (2013). Multiannual patterns of influenza A transmission in Chinese live bird market systems. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 7(1)

Van Kerkhove MD, Riley S, Lipsitch M, Guan Y, Monto AS, Webster RG, Zambon M, Nicoll A, Peiris JS, Ferguson NM. (2012). Comment on "Seroevidence for H5N1 influenza infections in humans: meta-analysis". Science (New York, N.Y.), 336(6088)

Lessler J, Riley S, Read JM, Wang S, Zhu H, Smith GJ, Guan Y, Jiang CQ, Cummings DA. (2012). Evidence for antigenic seniority in influenza A (H3N2) antibody responses in southern China. PLoS pathogens, 8(7)

Riley S, Leung GM, Ho LM, Cowling BJ. (2012). Transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus in Hong Kong. Hong Kong medical journal = Xianggang yi xue za zhi, (18 Suppl 2)

Kwok KO, Leung GM, Riley S. (2011). Modelling the proportion of influenza infections within households during pandemic and non-pandemic years. PLoS One, 6(7)

Lessler J, Cummings DA, Read JM, Wang S, Zhu H, Smith GJ, Guan Y, Jiang CQ, Riley S. (2011). Location-specific patterns of exposure to recent pre-pandemic strains of influenza A in southern China. Nature communications, (2)

Riley S, Kwok KO, Wu KM, Ning DY, Cowling BJ, Wu JT, Ho LM, Tsang T, Lo SV, Chu DK, Ma ES, Peiris JS. (2011). Epidemiological characteristics of 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza based on paired sera from a longitudinal community cohort study. PLoS medicine, 8(6)

Wu JT, Ma ES, Lee CK, Chu DK, Ho PL, Shen AL, Ho A, Hung IF, Riley S, Ho LM, Lin CK, Tsang T, Lo SV, Lau YL, Leung GM, Cowling BJ, Peiris JS. (2011). A serial cross-sectional serologic survey of 2009 Pandemic (H1N1) in Hong Kong: implications for future pandemic influenza surveillance. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 5(Suppl 1)

Cowling BJ, Lau LL, Wu P, Wong HW, Fang VJ, Riley S, Nishiura H. (2010). Entry screening to delay local transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1). BMC infectious diseases, (10)

Wu JT, Ma ES, Lee CK, Chu DK, Ho PL, Shen AL, Ho A, Hung IF, Riley S, Ho LM, Lin CK, Tsang T, Lo SV, Lau YL, Leung GM, Cowling BJ, Malik Peiris JS. (2010). The infection attack rate and severity of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza in Hong Kong. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 51(10)

Riley S. (2010). Coping without farm location data during a foot-and-mouth outbreak. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107(3)

Van Kerkhove MD, Asikainen T, Becker NG, Bjorge S, Desenclos JC, dos Santos T, Fraser C, Leung GM, Lipsitch M, Longini IM Jr., McBryde ES, Roth CE, Shay DK, Smith DJ, Wallinga J, White PJ, Ferguson NM, Riley S, . (2010). Studies needed to address public health challenges of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: insights from modeling. PLoS medicine, 7(6)

Wu JT, Cowling BJ, Lau EH, Ip DK, Ho LM, Tsang T, Chuang SK, Leung PY, Lo SV, Liu SH, Riley S. (2010). School closure and mitigation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Hong Kong. Emerging infectious diseases, 16(3)

Lipsitch M, Riley S, Cauchemez S, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. (2009). Managing and reducing uncertainty in an emerging influenza pandemic. The New England journal of medicine, 361(2)

Presanis AM, Lipsitch M, Daniela De Angelis, , Hagy A, Reed C, Riley S, Cooper B, Biedrzycki P, Finelli L, B J. (2009). The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, April - July 2009. PLoS currents, (1)

Wu JT, Leung GM, Lipsitch M, Cooper BS, Riley S. (2009). Hedging against antiviral resistance during the next influenza pandemic using small stockpiles of an alternative chemotherapy. PLoS medicine, 6(5)

Cowling BJ, Fang VJ, Riley S, Malik Peiris JS, Leung GM. (2009). Estimation of the serial interval of influenza. Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 20(3)

Lipsitch M, Lajous M, O'Hagan JJ, Cohen T, Miller JC, Goldstein E, Danon L, Wallinga J, Riley S, Dowell SF, Reed C, McCarron M. (2009). Use of cumulative incidence of novel influenza A/H1N1 in foreign travelers to estimate lower bounds on cumulative incidence in Mexico. PLoS One, 4(9)

Presanis AM, De Angelis D, , Hagy A, Reed C, Riley S, Cooper BS, Finelli L, Biedrzycki P, Lipsitch M. (2009). The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: a Bayesian analysis. PLoS medicine, 6(12)

White LF, Wallinga J, Finelli L, Reed C, Riley S, Lipsitch M, Pagano M. (2009). Estimation of the reproductive number and the serial interval in early phase of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in the USA. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 3(6)

Redmond EC, Griffith CJ, Riley S. (2009). Contamination of bottles used for feeding reconstituted powdered infant formula and implications for public health. Perspectives in public health, 129(2)

Riley S, Carabin H, Bélisle P, Joseph L, Tallo V, Balolong E, Willingham AL, Fernandez TJ, Gonzales RO, Olveda R, McGarvey ST. (2008). Multi-host transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum in Samar province, the Philippines. PLoS medicine, 5(1)

Riley S. (2008). A prospective study of spatial clusters gives valuable insights into dengue transmission. PLoS medicine, 5(11)

Kwok KO, Leung GM, Lam WY, Riley S. (2007). Using models to identify routes of nosocomial infection: a large hospital outbreak of SARS in Hong Kong. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 274(1610)

Riley S. (2007). Doping destroys the story at the heart of cycling. Nature, 449(7160)

Wu JT, Riley S, Leung GM. (2007). Spatial considerations for the allocation of pre-pandemic influenza vaccination in the United States. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 274(1627)

Tatem AJ, Riley S. (2007). Effect of poor census data on population maps. Science (New York, N.Y.), 318(5847)

Riley S, Wu JT, Leung GM. (2007). Optimizing the dose of pre-pandemic influenza vaccines to reduce the infection attack rate. PLoS medicine, 4(6)

Riley S. (2007). Large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious disease. Science (New York, N.Y.), 316(5829)

Cowling BJ, Wong IO, Ho LM, Riley S, Leung GM. (2006). Methods for monitoring influenza surveillance data. International journal of epidemiology, 35(5)

Riley S, Ferguson NM. (2006). Smallpox transmission and control: spatial dynamics in Great Britain. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103(33)

Wu JT, Riley S, Fraser C, Leung GM. (2006). Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions. PLoS medicine, 3(9)

Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, Burke DS. (2005). Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature, 437(7056)

Riley S, Carabin H, Marshall C, Olveda R, Willingham AL, McGarvey ST. (2005). Estimating and modeling the dynamics of the intensity of infection with schistosoma japonicum in villagers of leyte, Philippines. Part II: Intensity-specific transmission of S. japonicum. The schistosomiasis transmission and ecology project. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 72(6)

Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM. (2004). Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101(16)

Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Abu-Raddad LJ, Hedley AJ, Leung GM, Ho LM, Lam TH, Thach TQ, Chau P, Chan KP, Lo SV, Leung PY, Tsang T, Ho W, Lee KH, Lau EM, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM. (2003). Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions. Science (New York, N.Y.), 300(5627)

Riley S, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. (2003). Robust parameter estimation techniques for stochastic within-host macroparasite models. Journal of theoretical biology, 225(4)

Riley C, Riley S. (2003). Influenza and pneumococcal disease in the community. Nursing standard (Royal College of Nursing (Great Britain) : 1987), 18(4)

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