The Reference Model for COVID-19 is an ensemble model that attempts to explain the start of the pandemic, circa April 2020, using human comprehensible models. It is a type of explainable AI. See: Reference Model for COVID-19 Ensemble
The Reference Model is looking for models that can be released under CC0 (Creative Commons Zero) or another public domain type license that can be merged with the ensemble. Models can include:
- infectiousness models that describe relative virus shedding / generation per day since infection as a curve
- transmission models that describe the probability of transmission of an individual per encounter
- response models that define behavior that affects the number of encounters of an individual per day
- mortality models that define the probability of death and the time of death since infection of an individual
- observation models that correct the observed numbers to presumed actual numbers
Other types of models may be also considered depending on complexity.
Modelers interested in collaboration should contact jacob.barhak@gmail.com.
