The next Global Pervasive Computational Epidemiology Seminar features guest speaker and MIDAS member B. Aditya Prakash from Georgia Tech.
Date/Time: Thursday July 23 (11:30 AM – 12:30 PM Eastern time).
Topic: Deep Learning Data-driven approaches for Epidemic Forecasting
The devastating impact of the currently unfolding global COVID-19 pandemic has sharply illustrated our enormous vulnerability to emerging infectious diseases. Forecasting disease trajectories is a non-trivial and important task. Estimating various measures related to the epidemic (such as future incidence over the next four weeks) gives policymakers valuable lead time to plan interventions and optimize supply chain decisions. In this talk we will talk about our data driven neural frameworks for epidemic forecasting for various targets, using seasonal influenza and the COVID-19 pandemic as examples. We first present our historical influenza model predicting influenza-like-illness symptomatic burden across the US, which has many desirable properties including interpretability. Next we show how to use new deep learning techniques to adapt our historical model to an emerging scenario (like COVID) leveraging auxiliary data sources. Finally we discuss our model for predicting COVID associated mortality and hospitalizations, which can handle noisy signals while propagating uncertainties. We utilize many data signals including mobility, social media and point-of-care datasets. Results from our real time predictions (shown on the CDC website and FiveThirtyEight.com) during the current pandemic since March indicates that our approaches are among the best performing ones, especially for short-term predictions.
Note: In order to facilitate discussion, we are switching back to a “regular” Zoom meeting for future seminars. To reduce background noise, please remember to keep your microphone muted when not participating in the discussion.
Meeting ID: 927 0000 2677
Password: 175573 (needed if not joining directly from link above)
Seminars are held the 2nd and 4th Thursday of each month, 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM Eastern time. The upcoming schedule is below:
August 13: Naren Ramakrishnan (Virginia Tech)
August 27: Kathy Alexander (Virginia Tech)
September 10: Anil Vullikanti (University of Virginia)