The MIDAS Webinar Series presents the research of MIDAS members and is open to the public.
Date/Time: Friday, September 25, 12:00–1:00 PM EDT
Topic: The Impact of School Reopening on COVID-19 Transmission: Modeling Studies in Indiana, the San Francisco Bay Area, and King County, WA
Speakers:
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Alex Perkins and Guido Espana, University of Notre Dame
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Justin Remais, Jennifer Head, Kristin Andrejko, University of California, Berkeley
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Daniel Klein, Institute for Disease Modeling, Seattle
Abstract:
Schools across the United States were closed in order to reduce the risks of COVID-19 transmission. Modeling the impact of reopening schools under different conditions can help evaluate the associated risks and benefits. This MIDAS Webinar presents research from three groups and simulation studies conducted for populations in Indiana, the San Francisco Bay Area, and King County, Washington.
Alex Perkins and Guido Espana present an agent-based model to determine the impact of school reopening with different levels of operating capacity and mask adherence on the risk of COVID-19 transmission. The model simulates the daily activities of a synthetic population in Indiana, where transmission may occur in schools, workplaces, communities, and households. They model the impact of various scenarios, varying school capacity and mask use adherence, and compare these scenarios with reopening at full capacity without masks, as well as with schools operating fully remotely.
Justin Remais, Jennifer Head, and Kristin Andrejko used a stochastic individual-based model to simulate COVID-19 transmission dynamics, incorporating social contact data of school-aged children during restrictions when only essential services were permitted in the San Francisco Bay Area (California). They evaluated different elementary school reopening strategies in the third quarter of 2020 and suggested that multiple intervention strategies in schools, combined with much greater community transmission reduction than what was in place at the time, would be needed to avoid unnecessary excess risk associated with reopening schools.
Daniel Klein and colleagues at the Institute for Disease Modeling (IDM) used Covasim, an agent-based transmission and intervention model developed by IDM, to estimate the impact of school reopening on disease transmission. They examined the extent to which student and teacher screening, testing, and monitoring—as well as alternating in-person and remote schedules—could mitigate the spread of the epidemic both within and outside schools.