Paper Information

Measles incidence has resurged globally after the COVID-19 pandemic. To inform planning in the United States (US), we assess local transmissibility and outbreak risk at present (2024-2025) and in future years (2025-2030) under various vaccination scenarios. The estimated spatiotemporal outbreak risk pattern is consistent with current observations. Projections through 2030 show the reproduction number could exceed 1 - indicating a potential of large outbreaks - within 5 (or 2) years should vaccination coverage decline by 10% (or 50%). These findings can inform outbreak preparedness and highlight the importance of maintaining high vaccination coverage to sustaining measles elimination in the US.