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Development and application of multiscale models of acute viral infections in intervention research

Abstract

The objective of this study is to advance two frontiers in multiscale modelling of acute viral infections, which are (a) the mathematical technology or technical frontier, where we present a new method for development of multiscale models of acute viral infections using influenza A virus (IAV) as a paradigm in which a new set of metrics to measure both individual level and community level infectiousness are introduced, and (b) the scientific applications frontier, where we demonstrate the implementation of multiscale modelling in evaluating the comparative effectiveness of IAV health interventions from efficacy data. The multiscale model is developed by integrating the within‐host scale and the between‐host scale. Using the example of IAV as a paradigm, we demonstrate the utility and process by which multiscale modelling can be used to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of health interventions that operate at different scale domains. The multiscale modelling is general enough to be applicable to other acute viral infections.

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