Professor of Infectious Disease Modelling
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000-173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220-319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000-797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.
Jit M, Jombart T, Nightingale ES, Endo A, Abbott S, Lshtm Centre For Mathematical Modelling Of Infectious Diseases Covid-Working Group, Edmunds WJ. (2020). Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 25(18)