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Paper Information

Title

Estimating SARS-CoV-2 variant fitness and the impact of interventions in England using statistical and geo-spatial agent-based models.

Abstract

. Relative to earlier variants, the transmissibility of B.1.177 is estimated to have increased by 1.14 (1.12-1.16) and that of Alpha by 1.71 (1.65-1.77). The vaccination programme starting in December 2020 is also modelled. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that the vaccination programme was essential for reopening in March 2021, and that if the January lockdown had started one month earlier, up to 30 k (24 k-38 k) deaths could have been prevented. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

Journal

Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences

Citation

Hinch R, Panovska-Griffiths J, Probert WJM, Ferretti L, Wymant C, Di Lauro F, Baya N, Ghafari M, Abeler-Dörner L, , Fraser C. (2022). Estimating SARS-CoV-2 variant fitness and the impact of interventions in England using statistical and geo-spatial agent-based models. Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, 380(2233)

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