In the base-case analysis, the optimal decision is test-and-wait. If the cost of issuing a boil-water advisory is less than 13.92 cents per person per day, the optimal decision is to issue the boil-water advisory immediately.
Study the decision to issue a boil-water advisory in response to a spike in sales of diarrhea remedies or wait 72 hours for the results of definitive testing of water and people.
Decisions based on surveillance data that are suggestive but not conclusive about the existence of a disease outbreak can be modeled.
Wagner MM, Wallstrom GL, Onisko A. (2005). Issue a boil-water advisory or wait for definitive information? A decision analysis. AMIA ... Annual Symposium proceedings. AMIA Symposium