Modeling the impact of school reopening on SARS-CoV-2 transmission using contact structure data from Shanghai.
Abstract
We adapted a previously published model using contact information from Shanghai to model school reopening under various conditions. We investigated different strategies by combining the contact patterns observed between different age groups during both baseline and "lockdown" periods. We also tested the robustness of our strategy to the assumption of lower susceptibility to infection in children under age 15 years.
These results, based on contact structure data from Shanghai, suggest that schools can reopen with proper precautions during conditions of extreme contact reduction and during conditions of reasonable levels of reopening in the rest of the community.
Mathematical modeling studies have suggested that pre-emptive school closures alone have little overall impact on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but reopening schools in the background of community contact reduction presents a unique scenario that has not been fully assessed.
virtually back to baseline, highlighting the importance of mitigation measures.