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Stochastic discrete epidemic modeling of COVID-19 transmission in the Province of Shaanxi incorporating public health intervention and case importation

Abstract

Before the lock-down of Wuhan/Hubei/China, on January 23rd 2020, a large number of individuals infected by COVID-19 moved from the epicenter Wuhan and the Hubei province due to the Spring Festival, resulting in an epidemic in the other provinces including the Shaanxi province. The epidemic scale in Shaanxi was comparatively small and with half of cases being imported from the epicenter. Based on the complete epidemic data including the symptom onset time and transmission chains, we calculate the control reproduction number (1.48-1.69) in Xian. We could also compute the time transition, for each imported or local case, from the latent, to infected, to hospitalized compartment, as well as the effective reproduction number. This calculation enables us to revise our early deterministic transmission model to a stochastic discrete epidemic model with case importation and parameterize it. Our model-based analyses reveal that the newly generated infections decay to zero quickly; the cumulative number of case-driven quarantined individuals via contact tracing stabilize at a manageable level, indicating that the intervention strategies implemented in the Shaanxi province have been effective. Risk analyses, important for the consideration of resumption of work, show that a large second outbreak is expected if the level of case importation remains at the same level as between January 10th and February 4th 2020. However, if the case importation decreases by 30%, 60% and 90%, the second outbreak if happening will be of small-scale assuming contact tracing and quarantine/isolation remain as effective as before. Finally, we consider the effects of intermittent inflow with a Poisson distribution on the likelihood of multiple outbreaks. We believe the developed methodology and stochastic model provide an important model framework for the evaluation of revising travel restriction rules in the consideration of resuming social-economic activities while managing the disease control with potential case importation. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant numbers: 11631012 (YX, ST), 61772017 (ST)), and by the Canada Research Chair Program (grant number: 230720 (JW) and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (Grant number:105588-2011 (JW) ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Health Commission of Shaanxi Province. Available at http://sxwjw.shaanxi.gov.cn/col/ col863/index.html

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Citation:

Tang Sanyi, Tang Biao, Bragazzi Nicola Luigi, Xia Fan, Li Tangjuan, He Sha, Ren Pengyu, Wang Xia, Peng Zhihang, Xiao Yanni, Wu Jianhong. (2020). Stochastic discrete epidemic modeling of COVID-19 transmission in the Province of Shaanxi incorporating public health intervention and case importation. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press