Paper Information

A log linear model projected the 40-year exponential trend and seasonality to establish a no-COVID baseline. Pandemic era deviations were modeled with Poisson state fixed effects regressions. Five week moving window t-tests flagged synchronous mortality spikes across states, and a two-way fixed effects event study estimated the elasticity of OD deaths to EIP related income shocks. JP Morgan Chase checking balance data validated the income-mortality link.

Drug overdose (OD) deaths in the United States have risen exponentially for four decades and surged further during the COVID 19 pandemic; the drivers of this surge remain unclear.

To quantify excess OD mortality during COVID 19, separate its temporal components, and identify social, economic, and drug supply factors-especially Economic Impact Payments (EIPs)-linked to those components.

From March 2020 to May 2023, OD deaths exceeded baseline by 67 571 (24.4 %). Sustained elevation was positively associated with income (β ≈ 0.96), fentanyl seizures, unemployment, and COVID-19 case rates, and inversely with methadone distribution. Three short lived spikes aligned with EIP disbursements, raising daily deaths by up to 85 above trend. A 10 % rise in relative income increased OD mortality 11 %; national checking balance surges and OD deaths were tightly correlated (r ≈ 0.90).

Temporal and spatial analysis of all 50 U.S. states using OD deaths (1979-2023) merged with state level data on COVID-19, unemployment, income, mobility, fentanyl seizures, opioid treatment supply, and EIP timing/amounts.

Pandemic era overdose deaths comprise continuing exponential growth, a COVID-19 related sustained rise tied to social disruption, and EIP linked spikes. Future relief payments should consider staggered disbursement and concurrent harm reduction measures to mitigate overdose risk.