
Neil Ferguson
Department Head
Imperial College London Continue Reading Neil Ferguson
Broadening symptom criteria improves early case identification in SARS-CoV-2 contacts.
Broadening symptom criteria to include individuals with at least 2 of muscle aches, headache, appetite loss and sore throat identifies more infections and reduces time-to-detection, providing greater opportunities to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
, with only modest reduction in specificity (5.7%).
Two prospective longitudinal London-based cohorts of community SARS-CoV-2 contacts, recruited within 5 days of exposure, provided independent training and test datasets. Infected and uninfected contacts completed daily symptom diaries from the earliest possible time-points. Diagnostic information gained by adding symptoms to the CS was quantified using likelihood ratios and AUC-ROC. Improvements in sensitivity and time-to-detection were compared to penalties in terms of specificity and number-needed-to-test.
The success of case isolation and contact tracing for the control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission depends on the accuracy and speed of case identification. We assessed whether inclusion of additional symptoms alongside three canonical symptoms (CS) - fever; cough; loss or change in smell or taste - could improve case definitions and accelerate case identification in SARS-CoV-2 contacts.
The European respiratory journal
Houston H, Hakki S, Pillay TD, Madon K, Derqui-Fernandez N, Koycheva A, Singanayagam A, Fenn J, Kundu R, Conibear E, Varro R, Cutajar J, Quinn V, Wang L, Narean JS, Tolosa-Wright MR, Barnett J, Kon OM, Tedder R, Taylor G, Zambon M, Ferguson N, Dunning J, Deeks JJ, Lalvani A. (2021). Broadening symptom criteria improves early case identification in SARS-CoV-2 contacts. The European respiratory journal

Department Head
Imperial College London Continue Reading Neil Ferguson