Neil Ferguson

Department Head





Lavezzo E, Franchin E, Ciavarella C, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Barzon L, Del Vecchio C, Rossi L, Manganelli R, Loregian A, Navarin N, Abate D, Sciro M, Merigliano S, De Canale E, Vanuzzo MC, Besutti V, Saluzzo F, Onelia F, Pacenti M, Parisi S, Carretta G, Donato D, Flor L, Cocchio S, Masi G, Sperduti A, Cattarino L, Salvador R, Nicoletti M, Caldart F, Castelli G, Nieddu E, Labella B, Fava L, Drigo M, Gaythorpe KAM, , Brazzale AR, Toppo S, Trevisan M, Baldo V, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Dorigatti I, Crisanti A. (2020). Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo'. Nature

Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, Winskill P, Whittaker C, Imai N, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Thompson H, Walker PGT, Fu H, Dighe A, Griffin JT, Baguelin M, Bhatia S, Boonyasiri A, Cori A, Cucunubá Z, FitzJohn R, Gaythorpe K, Green W, Hamlet A, Hinsley W, Laydon D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Riley S, van Elsland S, Volz E, Wang H, Wang Y, Xi X, Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. (2020). Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. The Lancet. Infectious diseases

Cattarino L, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Imai N, Cummings DAT, Ferguson NM. (2020). Mapping global variation in dengue transmission intensity. Science translational medicine, 12(528)

Gaythorpe KA, Hamlet A, Cibrelus L, Garske T, Ferguson NM. (2020). The effect of climate change on yellow fever disease burden in Africa. eLife, (9)

Thompson HA, Imai N, Dighe A, Ainslie KEC, Baguelin M, Bhatia S, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Boyd O, Brazeau NF, Cattarino L, Cooper LV, Coupland H, Cucunuba Z, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Djaafara B, Dorigatti I, Elsland S, FitzJohn R, Fu H, Gaythorpe KAM, Green W, Hallett T, Hamlet A, Haw D, Hayes S, Hinsley W, Jeffrey B, Knock E, Laydon DJ, Lees J, Mangal TD, Mellan T, Mishra S, Mousa A, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Okell L, Parag KV, Ragonnet-Cronin M, Riley S, Unwin HJT, Verity R, Vollmer M, Volz E, Walker PGT, Walters C, Wang H, Wang Y, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Whittles LK, Winskill P, Xi X, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. (2020). SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence on repatriation flights from Wuhan City, China. Journal of travel medicine

Grassly NC, Pons-Salort M, Parker EPK, White PJ, Ferguson NM,. (2020). Comparison of molecular testing strategies for COVID-19 control: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet. Infectious diseases

Jeffrey B, Walters CE, Ainslie KEC, Eales O, Ciavarella C, Bhatia S, Hayes S, Baguelin M, Boonyasiri A, Brazeau NF, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, FitzJohn RG, Gaythorpe K, Green W, Imai N, Mellan TA, Mishra S, Nouvellet P, Unwin HJT, Verity R, Vollmer M, Whittaker C, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Riley S. (2020). Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with COVID-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK. Wellcome open research, (5)

Hogan AB, Jewell BL, Sherrard-Smith E, Vesga JF, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Hamlet A, Smith JA, Winskill P, Verity R, Baguelin M, Lees JA, Whittles LK, Ainslie KEC, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Brazeau NF, Cattarino L, Cooper LV, Coupland H, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Dighe A, Djaafara BA, Donnelly CA, Eaton JW, van Elsland SL, FitzJohn RG, Fu H, Gaythorpe KAM, Green W, Haw DJ, Hayes S, Hinsley W, Imai N, Laydon DJ, Mangal TD, Mellan TA, Mishra S, Nedjati-Gilani G, Parag KV, Thompson HA, Unwin HJT, Vollmer MAC, Walters CE, Wang H, Wang Y, Xi X, Ferguson NM, Okell LC, Churcher TS, Arinaminpathy N, Ghani AC, Walker PGT, Hallett TB. (2020). Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study. The Lancet. Global health

Walker PGT, Whittaker C, Watson OJ, Baguelin M, Winskill P, Hamlet A, Djafaara BA, Cucunubá Z, Olivera Mesa D, Green W, Thompson H, Nayagam S, Ainslie KEC, Bhatia S, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Boyd O, Brazeau NF, Cattarino L, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Dighe A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, van Elsland SL, FitzJohn R, Fu H, Gaythorpe KAM, Geidelberg L, Grassly N, Haw D, Hayes S, Hinsley W, Imai N, Jorgensen D, Knock E, Laydon D, Mishra S, Nedjati-Gilani G, Okell LC, Unwin HJ, Verity R, Vollmer M, Walters CE, Wang H, Wang Y, Xi X, Lalloo DG, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries. Science (New York, N.Y.)

Okell LC, Verity R, Watson OJ, Mishra S, Walker P, Whittaker C, Katzourakis A, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Ghani AC, Gandy A, Flaxman S, Ferguson NM, Bhatt S. (2020). Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity?. Lancet

Biggerstaff M, Cowling BJ, Cucunubá ZM, Dinh L, Ferguson NM, Gao H, Hill V, Imai N, Johansson MA, Kada S, Morgan O, Pastore Y Piontti A, Polonsky JA, Prasad PV, Quandelacy TM, Rambaut A, Tappero JW, Vandemaele KA, Vespignani A, Warmbrod KL, Wong JY,. (2020). Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19. Emerging infectious diseases, 26(11)

Flaxman S, Mishra S, Gandy A, Unwin HJT, Mellan TA, Coupland H, Whittaker C, Zhu H, Berah T, Eaton JW, Monod M, , Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Riley SM, Vollmer MAC, Ferguson NM, Okell LC, Bhatt S. (2020). Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature

Jean K, Hamlet A, Benzler J, Cibrelus L, Gaythorpe KAM, Sall A, Ferguson NM, Garske T. (2020). Eliminating yellow fever epidemics in Africa: Vaccine demand forecast and impact modelling. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 14(5)

Perez-Guzman PN, Daunt A, Mukherjee S, Crook P, Forlano R, Kont MD, Løchen A, Vollmer M, Middleton P, Judge R, Harlow C, Soubieres A, Cooke G, White PJ, Hallett TB, Aylin P, Ferguson N, Hauck K, Thursz MR, Nayagam S. (2020). Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in a multi-ethnic London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

O'Driscoll M, Imai N, Ferguson NM, Hadinegoro SR, Satari HI, Tam CC, Dorigatti I. (2020). Spatiotemporal variability in dengue transmission intensity in Jakarta, Indonesia. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 14(3)

Imai N, Gaythorpe KAM, Abbott S, Bhatia S, van Elsland S, Prem K, Liu Y, Ferguson NM. (2020). Adoption and impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19. Wellcome open research, (5)

Imai Natsuko, Dorigatti Ilaria, Cori Anne, Riley Steven, Ferguson Neil M. (2020). Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China V2 (updated to include second Thai case)

McCormack CP, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. (2019). Fine-scale modelling finds that breeding site fragmentation can reduce mosquito population persistence. Communications biology, (2)

Dighe A, Jombart T, Van Kerkhove MD, Ferguson N. (2019). A systematic review of MERS-CoV seroprevalence and RNA prevalence in dromedary camels: Implications for animal vaccination. Epidemics

Campbell F, Cori A, Ferguson N, Jombart T. (2019). Bayesian inference of transmission chains using timing of symptoms, pathogen genomes and contact data. PLoS computational biology, 15(3)

Imai N, Ferguson NM. (2018). Targeting vaccinations for the licensed dengue vaccine: Considerations for serosurvey design. PLoS One, 13(6)

Marshall JM, Wu SL, Sanchez C HM, Kiware SS, Ndhlovu M, Ouédraogo AL, Touré MB, Sturrock HJ, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. (2018). Mathematical models of human mobility of relevance to malaria transmission in Africa. Scientific reports, 8(1)

Miglianico M, Eldering M, Slater H, Ferguson N, Ambrose P, Lees RS, Koolen KMJ, Pruzinova K, Jancarova M, Volf P, Koenraadt CJM, Duerr HP, Trevitt G, Yang B, Chatterjee AK, Wisler J, Sturm A, Bousema T, Sauerwein RW, Schultz PG, Tremblay MS, Dechering KJ. (2018). Repurposing isoxazoline veterinary drugs for control of vector-borne human diseases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(29)

Magombedze G, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC. (2018). A trade-off between dry season survival longevity and wet season high net reproduction can explain the persistence of Anopheles mosquitoes. Parasites & vectors, 11(1)

Campbell F, Strang C, Ferguson N, Cori A, Jombart T. (2018). When are pathogen genome sequences informative of transmission events?. PLoS pathogens, 14(2)

Ferguson NM. (2018). Challenges and opportunities in controlling mosquito-borne infections. Nature, 559(7715)

Nouvellet P, Cori A, Garske T, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Van Kerkhove MD, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Riley S. (2018). A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence. Epidemics, (22)

Dorigatti I, Hamlet A, Aguas R, Cattarino L, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Garske T, Imai N, Ferguson NM. (2017). International risk of yellow fever spread from the ongoing outbreak in Brazil, December 2016 to May 2017. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 22(28)

Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Jombart T, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Mills HL, Blake IM. (2017). Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 372(1721)

Garske T, Cori A, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Eckmanns T, Fraser C, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Dye C, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA. (2017). Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013-2016. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 372(1721)

Dorigatti I, McCormack C, Nedjati-Gilani G, Ferguson NM. (2018). Using Wolbachia for Dengue Control: Insights from Modelling. Trends in parasitology, 34(2)

Cauchemez S, Nouvellet P, Cori A, Jombart T, Garske T, Clapham H, Moore S, Mills HL, Salje H, Collins C, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Riley S, Truelove S, Algarni H, Alhakeem R, AlHarbi K, Turkistani A, Aguas RJ, Cummings DA, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Lessler J, Fraser C, Al-Barrak A, Ferguson NM. (2016). Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113(32)

Ferguson NM, Cucunubá ZM, Dorigatti I, Nedjati-Gilani GL, Donnelly CA, Basáñez MG, Nouvellet P, Lessler J. (2016). EPIDEMIOLOGY. Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America. Science (New York, N.Y.), 353(6297)

Lessler J, Chaisson LH, Kucirka LM, Bi Q, Grantz K, Salje H, Carcelen AC, Ott CT, Sheffield JS, Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Metcalf CJ, Rodriguez-Barraquer I. (2016). Assessing the global threat from Zika virus. Science (New York, N.Y.), 353(6300)

Marshall JM, Touré M, Ouédraogo AL, Ndhlovu M, Kiware SS, Rezai A, Nkhama E, Griffin JT, Hollingsworth TD, Doumbia S, Govella NJ, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC. (2016). Key traveller groups of relevance to spatial malaria transmission: a survey of movement patterns in four sub-Saharan African countries. Malaria journal, (15)

Pothin E, Ferguson NM, Drakeley CJ, Ghani AC. (2016). Estimating malaria transmission intensity from Plasmodium falciparum serological data using antibody density models. Malaria journal, (15)

Lessler J, Salje H, Van Kerkhove MD, Ferguson NM, Cauchemez S, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Hakeem R, Jombart T, Aguas R, Al-Barrak A, Cummings DA, . (2016). Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. American journal of epidemiology, 183(7)

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Thomas LJ, Van Kerkhove MD. (2016). Ebola Virus Disease among Male and Female Persons in West Africa. The New England journal of medicine, 374(1)

Jean K, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Garske T. (2016). A Meta-Analysis of Serological Response Associated with Yellow Fever Vaccination. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 95(6)

Pinsent A, Fraser C, Ferguson NM, Riley S. (2016). A systematic review of reported reassortant viral lineages of influenza A. BMC infectious diseases, (16)

Ferguson NM, Rodríguez-Barraquer I, Dorigatti I, Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L, Laydon DJ, Cummings DA. (2016). Benefits and risks of the Sanofi-Pasteur dengue vaccine: Modeling optimal deployment. Science (New York, N.Y.), 353(6303)

Flasche S, Jit M, Rodríguez-Barraquer I, Coudeville L, Recker M, Koelle K, Milne G, Hladish TJ, Perkins TA, Cummings DA, Dorigatti I, Laydon DJ, España G, Kelso J, Longini I, Lourenco J, Pearson CA, Reiner RC, Mier-Y-Terán-Romero L, Vannice K, Ferguson N. (2016). The Long-Term Safety, Public Health Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination with a Recombinant, Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine (Dengvaxia): A Model Comparison Study. PLoS medicine, 13(11)

Karkey A, Jombart T, Walker AW, Thompson CN, Torres A, Dongol S, Tran Vu Thieu N, Pham Thanh D, Tran Thi Ngoc D, Voong Vinh P, Singer AC, Parkhill J, Thwaites G, Basnyat B, Ferguson N, Baker S. (2016). The Ecological Dynamics of Fecal Contamination and Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi A in Municipal Kathmandu Drinking Water. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 10(1)

Clapham HE, Quyen TH, Kien DT, Dorigatti I, Simmons CP, Ferguson NM. (2016). Modelling Virus and Antibody Dynamics during Dengue Virus Infection Suggests a Role for Antibody in Virus Clearance. PLoS computational biology, 12(5)

Fumanelli L, Ajelli M, Merler S, Ferguson NM, Cauchemez S. (2016). Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics. PLoS computational biology, 12(1)

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Bawo L, Bilivogui P, Blake IM, Brennan RJ, Cawthorne A, Cleary E, Clement P, Conteh R, Cori A, Dafae F, Dahl B, Dangou JM, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Fallah M, Ferguson NM, Fiebig L, Fraser C, Garske T, Gonzalez L, Hamblion E, Hamid N, Hersey S, Hinsley W, Jambei A, Jombart T, Kargbo D, Keita S, Kinzer M, George FK, Godefroy B, Gutierrez G, Kannangarage N, Mills HL, Moller T, Meijers S, Mohamed Y, Morgan O, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Nyenswah T, Perea W, Perkins D, Riley S, Rodier G, Rondy M, Sagrado M, Savulescu C, Schafer IJ, Schumacher D, Seyler T, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Wesseh CS, Yoti Z. (2016). Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study. PLoS medicine, 13(11)

Imai N, Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2016). Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 10(7)

Walker PG, White MT, Griffin JT, Reynolds A, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC. (2015). Malaria morbidity and mortality in Ebola-affected countries caused by decreased health-care capacity, and the potential effect of mitigation strategies: a modelling analysis. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 15(7)

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fowler RA, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Murthy S, Nedjati Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Pelletier L, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD. (2015). Ebola virus disease among children in West Africa. The New England journal of medicine, 372(13)

Van Kerkhove MD, Bento AI, Mills HL, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA. (2015). A review of epidemiological parameters from Ebola outbreaks to inform early public health decision-making. Scientific data, (2)

Ferguson NM, Kien DT, Clapham H, Aguas R, Trung VT, Chau TN, Popovici J, Ryan PA, O'Neill SL, McGraw EA, Long VT, Dui le T, Nguyen HL, Chau NV, Wills B, Simmons CP. (2015). Modeling the impact on virus transmission of Wolbachia-mediated blocking of dengue virus infection of Aedes aegypti. Science translational medicine, 7(279)

Lipsitch M, Donnelly CA, Fraser C, Blake IM, Cori A, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Garske T, Mills HL, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Hernán MA. (2015). Potential Biases in Estimating Absolute and Relative Case-Fatality Risks during Outbreaks. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 9(7)

Dorigatti I, Aguas R, Donnelly CA, Guy B, Coudeville L, Jackson N, Saville M, Ferguson NM. (2015). Modelling the immunological response to a tetravalent dengue vaccine from multiple phase-2 trials in Latin America and South East Asia. Vaccine, 33(31)

Lambrechts L, Ferguson NM, Harris E, Holmes EC, McGraw EA, O'Neill SL, Ooi EE, Ritchie SA, Ryan PA, Scott TW, Simmons CP, Weaver SC. (2015). Assessing the epidemiological effect of wolbachia for dengue control. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 15(7)

Nouvellet P, Garske T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Hinsley W, Blake IM, Van Kerkhove MD, Cori A, Dorigatti I, Jombart T, Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. (2015). The role of rapid diagnostics in managing Ebola epidemics. Nature, 528(7580)

Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L, Ferguson N, Burke DS, Cummings DAT. (2015). Differential efficacy of dengue vaccine by immune status. Lancet, 385(9979)

Imai N, Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2015). Estimating dengue transmission intensity from sero-prevalence surveys in multiple countries. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 9(4)

Gambhir M, Clark TA, Cauchemez S, Tartof SY, Swerdlow DL, Ferguson NM. (2015). A change in vaccine efficacy and duration of protection explains recent rises in pertussis incidence in the United States. PLoS computational biology, 11(4)

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Blake IM, Brennan R, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Formenty P, Fraser C, Garcia E, Garske T, Hinsley W, Holmes D, Hugonnet S, Iyengar S, Jombart T, Krishnan R, Meijers S, Mills HL, Mohamed Y, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Pelletier L, Perkins D, Riley S, Sagrado M, Schnitzler J, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Varsaneux O, Wijekoon Kannangarage N. (2015). West African Ebola epidemic after one year--slowing but not yet under control. The New England journal of medicine, 372(6)

Pelat C, Ferguson NM, White PJ, Reed C, Finelli L, Cauchemez S, Fraser C. (2014). Optimizing the precision of case fatality ratio estimates under the surveillance pyramid approach. American journal of epidemiology, 180(10)

Lessler J, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Cummings DA, Garske T, Van Kerkhove M, Mills H, Truelove S, Hakeem R, Albarrak A, Ferguson NM, , . (2014). Estimating Potential Incidence of MERS-CoV Associated with Hajj Pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014. PLoS currents, (6)

Aylward B, Barboza P, Bawo L, Bertherat E, Bilivogui P, Blake I, Brennan R, Briand S, Chakauya JM, Chitala K, Conteh RM, Cori A, Croisier A, Dangou JM, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Formenty P, Fuhrer C, Fukuda K, Garske T, Gasasira A, Gbanyan S, Graaff P, Heleze E, Jambai A, Jombart T, Kasolo F, Kadiobo AM, Keita S, Kertesz D, Koné M, Lane C, Markoff J, Massaquoi M, Mills H, Mulba JM, Musa E, Myhre J, Nasidi A, Nilles E, Nouvellet P, Nshimirimana D, Nuttall I, Nyenswah T, Olu O, Pendergast S, Perea W, Polonsky J, Riley S, Ronveaux O, Sakoba K, Santhana Gopala Krishnan R, Senga M, Shuaib F, Van Kerkhove MD, Vaz R, Wijekoon Kannangarage N, Yoti Z. (2014). Ebola virus disease in West Africa--the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections. The New England journal of medicine, 371(16)

Clapham HE, Tricou V, Van Vinh Chau N, Simmons CP, Ferguson NM. (2014). Within-host viral dynamics of dengue serotype 1 infection. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 11(96)

Ferguson NM, Cummings DA. (2014). How season and serotype determine dengue transmissibility. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(26)

Garske T, Van Kerkhove MD, Yactayo S, Ronveaux O, Lewis RF, Staples JE, Perea W, Ferguson NM, . (2014). Yellow Fever in Africa: estimating the burden of disease and impact of mass vaccination from outbreak and serological data. PLoS medicine, 11(5)

Jombart T, Aanensen DM, Baguelin M, Birrell P, Cauchemez S, Camacho A, Colijn C, Collins C, Cori A, Didelot X, Fraser C, Frost S, Hens N, Hugues J, Höhle M, Opatowski L, Rambaut A, Ratmann O, Soubeyrand S, Suchard MA, Wallinga J, Ypma R, Ferguson N. (2014). OutbreakTools: a new platform for disease outbreak analysis using the R software. Epidemics, (7)

Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM, Fox A, Mai le Q, Thanh le T, Thai PQ, Thoang DD, Duong TN, Minh Hoa le N, Tran Hien N, Horby P. (2014). Determinants of influenza transmission in South East Asia: insights from a household cohort study in Vietnam. PLoS pathogens, 10(8)

Jombart T, Cori A, Didelot X, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Ferguson N. (2014). Bayesian reconstruction of disease outbreaks by combining epidemiologic and genomic data. PLoS computational biology, 10(1)

Gambhir M, Swerdlow DL, Finelli L, Van Kerkhove MD, Biggerstaff M, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2013). Multiple contributory factors to the age distribution of disease cases: a modeling study in the context of influenza A(H3N2v). Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, (57 Suppl 1)

Ali ST, Kadi AS, Ferguson NM. (2013). Transmission dynamics of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in India: the impact of holiday-related school closure. Epidemics, 5(4)

Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2013). Increased transmissibility explains the third wave of infection by the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus in England. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(33)

Ferguson NM, Van Kerkhove MD. (2014). Identification of MERS-CoV in dromedary camels. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 14(2)

Garske T, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC. (2013). Estimating air temperature and its influence on malaria transmission across Africa. PloS one, 8(2)

Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Rambaut A, Enouf V, van der Werf S, Ferguson NM. (2014). Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 14(1)

Cori A, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Cauchemez S. (2013). A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics. American journal of epidemiology, 178(9)

Aguas R, Ferguson NM. (2013). Feature selection methods for identifying genetic determinants of host species in RNA viruses. PLoS computational biology, 9(10)

Cauchemez S, Epperson S, Biggerstaff M, Swerdlow D, Finelli L, Ferguson NM. (2013). Using routine surveillance data to estimate the epidemic potential of emerging zoonoses: application to the emergence of US swine origin influenza A H3N2v virus. PLoS medicine, 10(3)

Van Kerkhove MD, Riley S, Lipsitch M, Guan Y, Monto AS, Webster RG, Zambon M, Nicoll A, Peiris JS, Ferguson NM. (2012). Comment on "Seroevidence for H5N1 influenza infections in humans: meta-analysis". Science (New York, N.Y.), 336(6088)

de Silva E, Ferguson NM, Fraser C. (2012). Inferring pandemic growth rates from sequence data. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 9(73)

Truscott J, Ferguson NM. (2012). Evaluating the adequacy of gravity models as a description of human mobility for epidemic modelling. PLoS computational biology, 8(10)

Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Pugliese A, Ferguson NM. (2012). A new approach to characterising infectious disease transmission dynamics from sentinel surveillance: application to the Italian 2009-2010 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic. Epidemics, 4(1)

Ferguson N, Kamble SV. (2012). The role of revenge, denial, and terrorism distress in restoring just world beliefs: the impact of the 2008 Mumbai attacks on British and Indian students. The Journal of social psychology, 152(6)

Cauchemez S, Horby P, Fox A, Mai le Q, Thanh le T, Thai PQ, Hoa le NM, Hien NT, Ferguson NM. (2012). Influenza infection rates, measurement errors and the interpretation of paired serology. PLoS pathogens, 8(12)

Chis Ster I, Dodd PJ, Ferguson NM. (2012). Within-farm transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease as revealed by the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain. Epidemics, 4(3)

Van Kerkhove MD, Ferguson NM. (2012). Epidemic and intervention modelling--a scientific rationale for policy decisions? Lessons from the 2009 influenza pandemic. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 90(4)

Fraser C, Cummings DA, Klinkenberg D, Burke DS, Ferguson NM. (2011). Influenza transmission in households during the 1918 pandemic. American journal of epidemiology, 174(5)

Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2012). Methods to infer transmission risk factors in complex outbreak data. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 9(68)

MacIntyre CR, Wang Q, Cauchemez S, Seale H, Dwyer DE, Yang P, Shi W, Gao Z, Pang X, Zhang Y, Wang X, Duan W, Rahman B, Ferguson N. (2011). A cluster randomized clinical trial comparing fit-tested and non-fit-tested N95 respirators to medical masks to prevent respiratory virus infection in health care workers. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 5(3)

Garske T, Yu H, Peng Z, Ye M, Zhou H, Cheng X, Wu J, Ferguson N. (2011). Travel patterns in China. PLoS One, 6(2)

Cauchemez S, Bhattarai A, Marchbanks TL, Fagan RP, Ostroff S, Ferguson NM, Swerdlow D, . (2011). Role of social networks in shaping disease transmission during a community outbreak of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108(7)

Opatowski L, Fraser C, Griffin J, de Silva E, Van Kerkhove MD, Lyons EJ, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2011). Transmission characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: comparison of 8 Southern hemisphere countries. PLoS pathogens, 7(9)

Donnelly CA, Finelli L, Cauchemez S, Olsen SJ, Doshi S, Jackson ML, Kennedy ED, Kamimoto L, Marchbanks TL, Morgan OW, Patel M, Swerdlow DL, Ferguson NM, . (2011). Serial intervals and the temporal distribution of secondary infections within households of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1): implications for influenza control recommendations. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, (52 Suppl 1)

Truscott J, Fraser C, Cauchemez S, Meeyai A, Hinsley W, Donnelly CA, Ghani A, Ferguson N. (2012). Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 9(67)

Merler S, Ajelli M, Pugliese A, Ferguson NM. (2011). Determinants of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Europe: implications for real-time modelling. PLoS computational biology, 7(9)

Eggo RM, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2011). Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 8(55)

Pellis L, Ferguson NM, Fraser C. (2011). Epidemic growth rate and household reproduction number in communities of households, schools and workplaces. Journal of mathematical biology, 63(4)

Van Kerkhove MD, Asikainen T, Becker NG, Bjorge S, Desenclos JC, dos Santos T, Fraser C, Leung GM, Lipsitch M, Longini IM Jr., McBryde ES, Roth CE, Shay DK, Smith DJ, Wallinga J, White PJ, Ferguson NM, Riley S, . (2010). Studies needed to address public health challenges of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: insights from modeling. PLoS medicine, 7(6)

Cauchemez S, Donnelly CA, Reed C, Ghani AC, Fraser C, Kent CK, Finelli L, Ferguson NM. (2009). Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United States. The New England journal of medicine, 361(27)

Truscott J, Fraser C, Hinsley W, Cauchemez S, Donnelly C, Ghani A, Ferguson N, Meeyai A. (2009). Quantifying the transmissibility of human influenza and its seasonal variation in temperate regions. PLoS currents, (1)

Lipsitch M, Riley S, Cauchemez S, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. (2009). Managing and reducing uncertainty in an emerging influenza pandemic. The New England journal of medicine, 361(2)

Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM, Wachtel C, Tegnell A, Saour G, Duncan B, Nicoll A. (2009). Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 9(8)

Minayev P, Ferguson N. (2009). Incorporating demographic stochasticity into multi-strain epidemic models: application to influenza A. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 6(40)

Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S, Hanage WP, Van Kerkhove MD, Hollingsworth TD, Griffin J, Baggaley RF, Jenkins HE, Lyons EJ, Jombart T, Hinsley WR, Grassly NC, Balloux F, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Rambaut A, Pybus OG, Lopez-Gatell H, Alpuche-Aranda CM, Chapela IB, Zavala EP, Guevara DM, Checchi F, Garcia E, Hugonnet S, Roth C, . (2009). Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings. Science (New York, N.Y.), 324(5934)

Ferguson NM. (2009). Mathematical prediction in infection. Medicine (Abingdon, England : UK ed.), 37(10)

MacIntyre CR, Cauchemez S, Dwyer DE, Seale H, Cheung P, Browne G, Fasher M, Wood J, Gao Z, Booy R, Ferguson N. (2009). Face mask use and control of respiratory virus transmission in households. Emerging infectious diseases, 15(2)

Legrand J, Egan JR, Hall IM, Cauchemez S, Leach S, Ferguson NM. (2009). Estimating the location and spatial extent of a covert anthrax release. PLoS computational biology, 5(1)

Chis Ster I, Singh BK, Ferguson NM. (2009). Epidemiological inference for partially observed epidemics: the example of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. Epidemics, 1(1)

Lange A, Ferguson NM. (2009). Antigenic diversity, transmission mechanisms, and the evolution of pathogens. PLoS computational biology, 5(10)

Dodd PJ, Ferguson NM. (2009). A many-body field theory approach to stochastic models in population biology. PLoS One, 4(9)

Minayev P, Ferguson N. (2009). Improving the realism of deterministic multi-strain models: implications for modelling influenza A. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 6(35)

Pellis L, Ferguson NM, Fraser C. (2008). The relationship between real-time and discrete-generation models of epidemic spread. Mathematical biosciences, 216(1)

Halloran ME, Ferguson NM, Eubank S, Longini IM Jr., Cummings DA, Lewis B, Xu S, Fraser C, Vullikanti A, Germann TC, Wagener D, Beckman R, Kadau K, Barrett C, Macken CA, Burke DS, Cooley P. (2008). Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105(12)

Cauchemez S, Valleron AJ, Boëlle PY, Flahault A, Ferguson NM. (2008). Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data. Nature, 452(7188)

Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2008). Likelihood-based estimation of continuous-time epidemic models from time-series data: application to measles transmission in London. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 5(25)

Ferguson N. (2007). Capturing human behaviour. Nature, 446(7137)

Bootsma MC, Ferguson NM. (2007). The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in U.S. cities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(18)

Chis Ster I, Ferguson NM. (2007). Transmission parameters of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. PLoS One, 2(6)

Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Fraser C, Cajka JC, Cooley PC, Burke DS. (2006). Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature, 442(7101)

Ferguson N. (2006). Poverty, death, and a future influenza pandemic. Lancet, 368(9554)

Parham PE, Ferguson NM. (2006). Space and contact networks: capturing the locality of disease transmission. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 3(9)

Riley S, Ferguson NM. (2006). Smallpox transmission and control: spatial dynamics in Great Britain. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103(33)

Baggaley RF, Garnett GP, Ferguson NM. (2006). Modelling the impact of antiretroviral use in resource-poor settings. PLoS medicine, 3(4)

Cauchemez S, Boëlle PY, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Thomas G, Leung GM, Hedley AJ, Anderson RM, Valleron AJ. (2006). Real-time estimates in early detection of SARS. Emerging infectious diseases, 12(1)

Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, Burke DS. (2005). Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature, 437(7056)

Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Anderson RM. (2004). Public health. Public health risk from the avian H5N1 influenza epidemic. Science (New York, N.Y.), 304(5673)

Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM. (2004). Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101(16)

Abu-Raddad LJ, Ferguson NM. (2004). The impact of cross-immunity, mutation and stochastic extinction on pathogen diversity. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 271(1556)

Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Abu-Raddad LJ, Hedley AJ, Leung GM, Ho LM, Lam TH, Thach TQ, Chau P, Chan KP, Lo SV, Leung PY, Tsang T, Ho W, Lee KH, Lau EM, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM. (2003). Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions. Science (New York, N.Y.), 300(5627)

Ferguson NM, Galvani AP, Bush RM. (2003). Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution. Nature, 422(6930)

Ferguson NM, Mallett S, Jackson H, Roberts N, Ward P. (2003). A population-dynamic model for evaluating the potential spread of drug-resistant influenza virus infections during community-based use of antivirals. The Journal of antimicrobial chemotherapy, 51(4)

Ferguson NM, Keeling MJ, Edmunds WJ, Gani R, Grenfell BT, Anderson RM, Leach S. (2003). Planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature, 425(6959)

Riley S, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. (2003). Robust parameter estimation techniques for stochastic within-host macroparasite models. Journal of theoretical biology, 225(4)

Galvani AP, Coleman RM, Ferguson NM. (2003). The maintenance of sex in parasites. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 270(1510)

Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA. (2003). Assessment of the risk posed by bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle in Great Britain and the impact of potential changes to current control measures. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 270(1524)

Fraser C, Ferguson NM, De Wolf F, Ghani AC, Garnett GP, Anderson RM. (2002). Antigen-driven T-cell turnover. Journal of theoretical biology, 219(2)

Ferguson NM, Anderson RM. (2002). Predicting evolutionary change in the influenza A virus. Nature medicine, 8(6)

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