Neil Ferguson

Department Head





Dighe A, Jombart T, Van Kerkhove MD, Ferguson N. (2019). A systematic review of MERS-CoV seroprevalence and RNA prevalence in dromedary camels: Implications for animal vaccination. Epidemics

Imai N, Ferguson NM. (2018). Targeting vaccinations for the licensed dengue vaccine: Considerations for serosurvey design. PLoS One, 13(6)

Dorigatti I, McCormack C, Nedjati-Gilani G, Ferguson NM. (2018). Using Wolbachia for Dengue Control: Insights from Modelling. Trends in parasitology, 34(2)

Ferguson NM. (2018). Challenges and opportunities in controlling mosquito-borne infections. Nature, 559(7715)

Dorigatti I, Hamlet A, Aguas R, Cattarino L, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Garske T, Imai N, Ferguson NM. (2017). International risk of yellow fever spread from the ongoing outbreak in Brazil, December 2016 to May 2017. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 22(28)

Ferguson NM, Cucunubá ZM, Dorigatti I, Nedjati-Gilani GL, Donnelly CA, Basáñez MG, Nouvellet P, Lessler J. (2016). EPIDEMIOLOGY. Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America. Science (New York, N.Y.), 353(6297)

Cauchemez S, Nouvellet P, Cori A, Jombart T, Garske T, Clapham H, Moore S, Mills HL, Salje H, Collins C, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Riley S, Truelove S, Algarni H, Alhakeem R, AlHarbi K, Turkistani A, Aguas RJ, Cummings DA, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Lessler J, Fraser C, Al-Barrak A, Ferguson NM. (2016). Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113(32)

Ferguson NM, Rodríguez-Barraquer I, Dorigatti I, Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L, Laydon DJ, Cummings DA. (2016). Benefits and risks of the Sanofi-Pasteur dengue vaccine: Modeling optimal deployment. Science (New York, N.Y.), 353(6303)

Clapham HE, Quyen TH, Kien DT, Dorigatti I, Simmons CP, Ferguson NM. (2016). Modelling Virus and Antibody Dynamics during Dengue Virus Infection Suggests a Role for Antibody in Virus Clearance. PLoS computational biology, 12(5)

Imai N, Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2016). Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 10(7)

Ferguson NM, Kien DT, Clapham H, Aguas R, Trung VT, Chau TN, Popovici J, Ryan PA, O'Neill SL, McGraw EA, Long VT, Dui le T, Nguyen HL, Chau NV, Wills B, Simmons CP. (2015). Modeling the impact on virus transmission of Wolbachia-mediated blocking of dengue virus infection of Aedes aegypti. Science translational medicine, 7(279)

Dorigatti I, Aguas R, Donnelly CA, Guy B, Coudeville L, Jackson N, Saville M, Ferguson NM. (2015). Modelling the immunological response to a tetravalent dengue vaccine from multiple phase-2 trials in Latin America and South East Asia. Vaccine, 33(31)

Nouvellet P, Garske T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Hinsley W, Blake IM, Van Kerkhove MD, Cori A, Dorigatti I, Jombart T, Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. (2015). The role of rapid diagnostics in managing Ebola epidemics. Nature, 528(7580)

Imai N, Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2015). Estimating dengue transmission intensity from sero-prevalence surveys in multiple countries. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 9(4)

Gambhir M, Clark TA, Cauchemez S, Tartof SY, Swerdlow DL, Ferguson NM. (2015). A change in vaccine efficacy and duration of protection explains recent rises in pertussis incidence in the United States. PLoS computational biology, 11(4)

Clapham HE, Tricou V, Van Vinh Chau N, Simmons CP, Ferguson NM. (2014). Within-host viral dynamics of dengue serotype 1 infection. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 11(96)

Jombart T, Aanensen DM, Baguelin M, Birrell P, Cauchemez S, Camacho A, Colijn C, Collins C, Cori A, Didelot X, Fraser C, Frost S, Hens N, Hugues J, Höhle M, Opatowski L, Rambaut A, Ratmann O, Soubeyrand S, Suchard MA, Wallinga J, Ypma R, Ferguson N. (2014). OutbreakTools: a new platform for disease outbreak analysis using the R software. Epidemics

Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Rambaut A, Enouf V, van der Werf S, Ferguson NM. (2014). Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 14(1)

Ferguson NM, Van Kerkhove MD. (2014). Identification of MERS-CoV in dromedary camels. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 14(2)

Ferguson NM, Cummings DA. (2014). How season and serotype determine dengue transmissibility. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(26)

Jombart T, Cori A, Didelot X, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Ferguson N. (2014). Bayesian reconstruction of disease outbreaks by combining epidemiologic and genomic data. PLoS computational biology, 10(1)

Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2013). Increased transmissibility explains the third wave of infection by the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus in England. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(33)

Aguas R, Ferguson NM. (2013). Feature selection methods for identifying genetic determinants of host species in RNA viruses. PLoS computational biology, 9(10)

Cauchemez S, Epperson S, Biggerstaff M, Swerdlow D, Finelli L, Ferguson NM. (2013). Using routine surveillance data to estimate the epidemic potential of emerging zoonoses: application to the emergence of US swine origin influenza A H3N2v virus. PLoS medicine, 10(3)

Ali ST, Kadi AS, Ferguson NM. (2013). Transmission dynamics of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in India: the impact of holiday-related school closure. Epidemics, 5(4)

Gambhir M, Swerdlow DL, Finelli L, Van Kerkhove MD, Biggerstaff M, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2013). Multiple contributory factors to the age distribution of disease cases: a modeling study in the context of influenza A(H3N2v). Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

Van Kerkhove MD, Riley S, Lipsitch M, Guan Y, Monto AS, Webster RG, Zambon M, Nicoll A, Peiris JS, Ferguson NM. (2012). Comment on "Seroevidence for H5N1 influenza infections in humans: meta-analysis". Science (New York, N.Y.), 336(6088)

Truscott J, Ferguson NM. (2012). Evaluating the adequacy of gravity models as a description of human mobility for epidemic modelling. PLoS computational biology, 8(10)

Cauchemez S, Horby P, Fox A, Mai le Q, Thanh le T, Thai PQ, Hoa le NM, Hien NT, Ferguson NM. (2012). Influenza infection rates, measurement errors and the interpretation of paired serology. PLoS pathogens, 8(12)

Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2012). Methods to infer transmission risk factors in complex outbreak data. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 9(68)

Truscott J, Fraser C, Cauchemez S, Meeyai A, Hinsley W, Donnelly CA, Ghani A, Ferguson N. (2012). Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 9(67)

Chis Ster I, Dodd PJ, Ferguson NM. (2012). Within-farm transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease as revealed by the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain. Epidemics, 4(3)

Ferguson N, Kamble SV. (2012). The role of revenge, denial, and terrorism distress in restoring just world beliefs: the impact of the 2008 Mumbai attacks on British and Indian students. The Journal of social psychology, 152(6)

Van Kerkhove MD, Ferguson NM. (2012). Epidemic and intervention modelling--a scientific rationale for policy decisions? Lessons from the 2009 influenza pandemic. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 90(4)

Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Pugliese A, Ferguson NM. (2012). A new approach to characterising infectious disease transmission dynamics from sentinel surveillance: application to the Italian 2009-2010 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic. Epidemics, 4(1)

Eggo RM, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2011). Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 8(55)

Garske T, Yu H, Peng Z, Ye M, Zhou H, Cheng X, Wu J, Ferguson N. (2011). Travel patterns in China. PLoS One, 6(2)

Opatowski L, Fraser C, Griffin J, de Silva E, Van Kerkhove MD, Lyons EJ, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2011). Transmission characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: comparison of 8 Southern hemisphere countries. PLoS pathogens, 7(9)

Fraser C, Cummings DA, Klinkenberg D, Burke DS, Ferguson NM. (2011). Influenza transmission in households during the 1918 pandemic. American journal of epidemiology, 174(5)

Merler S, Ajelli M, Pugliese A, Ferguson NM. (2011). Determinants of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Europe: implications for real-time modelling. PLoS computational biology, 7(9)

MacIntyre CR, Wang Q, Cauchemez S, Seale H, Dwyer DE, Yang P, Shi W, Gao Z, Pang X, Zhang Y, Wang X, Duan W, Rahman B, Ferguson N. (2011). A cluster randomized clinical trial comparing fit-tested and non-fit-tested N95 respirators to medical masks to prevent respiratory virus infection in health care workers. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 5(3)

Cauchemez S, Donnelly CA, Reed C, Ghani AC, Fraser C, Kent CK, Finelli L, Ferguson NM. (2009). Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United States. The New England journal of medicine, 361(27)

Lipsitch M, Riley S, Cauchemez S, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. (2009). Managing and reducing uncertainty in an emerging influenza pandemic. The New England journal of medicine, 361(2)

Minayev P, Ferguson N. (2009). Incorporating demographic stochasticity into multi-strain epidemic models: application to influenza A. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 6(40)

Minayev P, Ferguson N. (2009). Improving the realism of deterministic multi-strain models: implications for modelling influenza A. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 6(35)

MacIntyre CR, Cauchemez S, Dwyer DE, Seale H, Cheung P, Browne G, Fasher M, Wood J, Gao Z, Booy R, Ferguson N. (2009). Face mask use and control of respiratory virus transmission in households. Emerging infectious diseases, 15(2)

Legrand J, Egan JR, Hall IM, Cauchemez S, Leach S, Ferguson NM. (2009). Estimating the location and spatial extent of a covert anthrax release. PLoS computational biology, 5(1)

Chis Ster I, Singh BK, Ferguson NM. (2009). Epidemiological inference for partially observed epidemics: the example of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. Epidemics, 1(1)

Lange A, Ferguson NM. (2009). Antigenic diversity, transmission mechanisms, and the evolution of pathogens. PLoS computational biology, 5(10)

Dodd PJ, Ferguson NM. (2009). A many-body field theory approach to stochastic models in population biology. PLoS One, 4(9)

Cauchemez S, Valleron AJ, Boëlle PY, Flahault A, Ferguson NM. (2008). Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data. Nature, 452(7188)

Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2008). Likelihood-based estimation of continuous-time epidemic models from time-series data: application to measles transmission in London. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 5(25)

Ferguson N. (2007). Capturing human behaviour. Nature, 446(7137)

Chis Ster I, Ferguson NM. (2007). Transmission parameters of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. PLoS One, 2(6)

Bootsma MC, Ferguson NM. (2007). The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in U.S. cities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(18)

Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Fraser C, Cajka JC, Cooley PC, Burke DS. (2006). Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature, 442(7101)

Ferguson N. (2006). Poverty, death, and a future influenza pandemic. Lancet (London, England), 368(9554)

Parham PE, Ferguson NM. (2006). Space and contact networks: capturing the locality of disease transmission. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 3(9)

Riley S, Ferguson NM. (2006). Smallpox transmission and control: spatial dynamics in Great Britain. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103(33)

Baggaley RF, Garnett GP, Ferguson NM. (2006). Modelling the impact of antiretroviral use in resource-poor settings. PLoS medicine, 3(4)

Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, Burke DS. (2005). Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature, 437(7056)

Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM. (2004). Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101(16)

Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Anderson RM. (2004). Public health. Public health risk from the avian H5N1 influenza epidemic. Science (New York, N.Y.), 304(5673)

Abu-Raddad LJ, Ferguson NM. (2004). The impact of cross-immunity, mutation and stochastic extinction on pathogen diversity. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 271(1556)

Ferguson NM, Galvani AP, Bush RM. (2003). Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution. Nature, 422(6930)

Riley S, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. (2003). Robust parameter estimation techniques for stochastic within-host macroparasite models. Journal of theoretical biology, 225(4)

Ferguson NM, Keeling MJ, Edmunds WJ, Gani R, Grenfell BT, Anderson RM, Leach S. (2003). Planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature, 425(6959)

Galvani AP, Coleman RM, Ferguson NM. (2003). The maintenance of sex in parasites. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 270(1510)

Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA. (2003). Assessment of the risk posed by bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle in Great Britain and the impact of potential changes to current control measures. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 270(1524)

Ferguson NM, Mallett S, Jackson H, Roberts N, Ward P. (2003). A population-dynamic model for evaluating the potential spread of drug-resistant influenza virus infections during community-based use of antivirals. The Journal of antimicrobial chemotherapy, 51(4)

Ferguson NM, Anderson RM. (2002). Predicting evolutionary change in the influenza A virus. Nature medicine, 8(6)