National Institutes of Health, National Institute of General Medical Sciences
People: Simon Cauchemez, James (Mac) Hyman, Steven Riley, Sze Man Leung, Neil Ferguson
2014 – 2019 Continue Reading Models for synthesising molecular, clinical and epidemiological data, and transla
Khurana MP, Katsiferis A, Scheidwasser N, Sloth MMB, Curran-Sebastian J, Morgenstern C, Tang ME, Fonager J, Rasmussen M, Stegger M, Lehmann S, Whittaker C, Mortensen LH, Jokelainen P, Kraemer MUG, Ferguson NM, Ghafari M, Krause TG, Duchêne DA, Bhatt S. (2026). Large-scale genomic surveillance reveals immunosuppression drives mutation dynamics in persistent SARS-CoV-2 infections. Nature communications
Gaythorpe KAM, Li X, Shankar M, Hartner AM, Gibney Z, Abbas K, Abeysuriya R, Alam C, Auzenbergs M, Azman AS, Barasa E, Costello A, Ferrari MJ, Fraser K, Fu H, Haile L, Kakaï RG, Karachaliou-Prasinou A, Lee EC, Katama EN, Kim JH, Jit M, Liu Y, Malinga J, Moore S, Nayagam S, Nedjati-Gilani G, Okell LC, Onifade AA, Papadopoulos T, Penny MA, Perkins TA, Pitzer VE, Portnoy A, Procter SR, Saraswati CM, Scott N, Seaman C, Shattock AJ, Sim SY, Tran Q, Vynnycky E, Winter AK, Hinsley W, Ferguson NM, Trotter CL. (2026). Quantifying relative health impact across Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance's portfolio in 117 countries at the subregional level: a modelling study. Lancet, 407(10542)
McCabe R, Ebbarnezh L, Okware S, Fotsing R, Koua E, Mbaka P, Lofungola A, Ebengo DM, Mbala PK, Bishola TT, Ibolobolo CM, Matondo HM, Sibo JM, van Elsland SL, McMenamin M, Ferguson NM, le Polain de Waroux O, Cori A. (2026). Estimation of the Ebola outbreak size in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 26(7)
McCormack C, Goethals O, Goeyvaerts N, De Trixhe XW, Verstrepen B, van Wesenbeek L, Verschoor E, Kaptein SJ, Neyts J, Van Loock M, Ferguson N, Ackaert O, Dorigatti I. (2026). Estimating the in vivo prophylactic effect of mosnodenvir, a novel dengue antiviral, on DENV-2 infection. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 23(239)
Jahn S, Fraser K, Gaythorpe KAM, Wainwright CM, Ferguson NM. (2025). Evaluating the role of observational uncertainty in climate impact assessments: Temperature-driven yellow fever risk in South America. PLOS climate, 4(6)
Cracknell Daniels B, Ferguson NM, Dorigatti I. (2025). Efficacy, public health impact and optimal use of the Takeda dengue vaccine. Nature medicine
Morgenstern C, Rawson T, Hinsley W, Perez Guzman PN, Bhatt S, Ferguson NM. (2025). Socioeconomic and temporal heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 exposure and disease in England from May 2020 to February 2023. Science advances, 11(21)
Dighe A, Jombart T, Ferguson N. (2025). Modelling transmission of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in camel populations and the potential impact of animal vaccination. Nature communications, 16(1)
Rawson T, Morgenstern C, Knock ES, Hicks J, Pham A, Morel G, Murillo AC, Sanderson MW, Forchini G, FitzJohn R, Hauck K, Ferguson N. (2025). A mathematical model of H5N1 influenza transmission in US dairy cattle. Nature communications, 16(1)
Jonnerby J, Fenn J, Hakki S, Zhou J, Madon KJ, Koycheva A, Nevin S, Kundu R, Crone MA, Pillay TD, Ahmad S, Derqui N, Conibear E, Varro R, Luca C, Freemont PS, Taylor GP, Zambon M, Barclay WS, Dunning J, Ferguson NM, Cowling BJ, Lalvani A, . (2025). Inferring transmission risk of respiratory viral infection from the viral load kinetics of SARS-CoV-2, England, 2020 to 2021 and influenza A virus, Hong Kong, 2008 to 2012. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 30(6)
Jahn S, Gaythorpe KAM, Wainwright CM, Ferguson NM. (2025). Evaluation of the Performance and Utility of Global Gridded Precipitation Products for Health Applications and Impact Assessments in South America. GeoHealth, 9(6)
Kraemer MUG, Tsui JL, Chang SY, Lytras S, Khurana MP, Vanderslott S, Bajaj S, Scheidwasser N, Curran-Sebastian JL, Semenova E, Zhang M, Unwin HJT, Watson OJ, Mills C, Dasgupta A, Ferretti L, Scarpino SV, Koua E, Morgan O, Tegally H, Paquet U, Moutsianas L, Fraser C, Ferguson NM, Topol EJ, Duchêne DA, Stadler T, Kingori P, Parker MJ, Dominici F, Shadbolt N, Suchard MA, Ratmann O, Flaxman S, Holmes EC, Gomez-Rodriguez M, Schölkopf B, Donnelly CA, Pybus OG, Cauchemez S, Bhatt S. (2025). Artificial intelligence for modelling infectious disease epidemics. Nature, 638(8051)
Rawson T, Hinsley W, Sonabend R, Semenova E, Cori A, Ferguson NM. (2024). The impact of health inequity on spatial variation of COVID-19 transmission in England. PLoS computational biology, 20(5)
Hartner AM, Li X, Echeverria-Londono S, Roth J, Abbas K, Auzenbergs M, de Villiers MJ, Ferrari MJ, Fraser K, Fu H, Hallett T, Hinsley W, Jit M, Karachaliou A, Moore SM, Nayagam S, Papadopoulos T, Perkins TA, Portnoy A, Minh QT, Vynnycky E, Winter AK, Burrows H, Chen C, Clapham HE, Deshpande A, Hauryski S, Huber J, Jean K, Kim C, Kim JH, Koh J, Lopman BA, Pitzer VE, Tam Y, Lambach P, Sim SY, Woodruff K, Ferguson NM, Trotter CL, Gaythorpe KAM. (2024). Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020-30: a modelling study. The Lancet. Global health, 12(4)
Morgenstern C, Laydon DJ, Whittaker C, Mishra S, Haw D, Bhatt S, Ferguson NM. (2024). The interaction of disease transmission, mortality, and economic output over the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. PloS one, 19(6)
van Elsland SL, O'Hare RM, McCabe R, Laydon DJ, Ferguson NM, Cori A, Christen P. (2024). Policy impact of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team: global perspective and United Kingdom case study. Health research policy and systems, 22(1)
Gaythorpe KAM, Li X, Clapham H, Dansereau E, Fitzjohn R, Hinsley W, Hogan D, Jit M, Mengistu T, Perkins TA, Portnoy A, Vynnycky E, Woodruff K, Ferguson NM, Trotter CL. (2024). Estimating the impact of vaccination: lessons learned in the first phase of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium. Gates open research, (8)
Fraser K, Hamlet A, Jean K, Ramos DG, Romano A, Horton J, Cibrelus L, Ferguson NM, Gaythorpe KAM. (2024). Assessing yellow fever outbreak potential and implications for vaccine strategy. PLOS global public health, 4(11)
Klepac P, Hsieh JL, Ducker CL, Assoum M, Booth M, Byrne I, Dodson S, Martin DL, Turner CMR, van Daalen KR, Abela B, Akamboe J, Alves F, Brooker SJ, Ciceri-Reynolds K, Cole J, Desjardins A, Drakeley C, Ediriweera DS, Ferguson NM, Gabrielli AF, Gahir J, Jain S, John MR, Juma E, Kanayson P, Deribe K, King JD, Kipingu AM, Kiware S, Kolaczinski J, Kulei WJ, Laizer TL, Lal V, Lowe R, Maige JS, Mayer S, McIver L, Mosser JF, Nicholls RS, Nunes-Alves C, Panjwani J, Parameswaran N, Polson K, Radoykova HS, Ramani A, Reimer LJ, Reynolds ZM, Ribeiro I, Robb A, Sanikullah KH, Smith DRM, Shirima GG, Shott JP, Tidman R, Tribe L, Turner J, Vaz Nery S, Velayudhan R, Warusavithana S, Wheeler HS, Yajima A, Abdilleh AR, Hounkpatin B, Wangmo D, Whitty CJM, Campbell-Lendrum D, Hollingsworth TD, Solomon AW, Fall IS. (2024). Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Sherratt K, Carnegie AC, Kucharski A, Cori A, Pearson CAB, Jarvis CI, Overton C, Weston D, Hill EM, Knock E, Fearon E, Nightingale E, Hellewell J, Edmunds WJ, Villabona Arenas J, Prem K, Pi L, Baguelin M, Kendall M, Ferguson N, Davies N, Eggo RM, van Elsland S, Russell T, Funk S, Liu Y, Abbott S. (2024). Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic. Wellcome open research, (9)
Hogan AB, Wu SL, Toor J, Olivera Mesa D, Doohan P, Watson OJ, Winskill P, Charles G, Barnsley G, Riley EM, Khoury DS, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC. (2023). Long-term vaccination strategies to mitigate the impact of SARS-CoV-2 transmission: A modelling study. PLoS medicine, 20(11)
Bhatia S, Parag KV, Wardle J, Nash RK, Imai N, Elsland SLV, Lassmann B, Brownstein JS, Desai A, Herringer M, Sewalk K, Loeb SC, Ramatowski J, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Jauneikaite E, Unwin HJT, Riley S, Ferguson N, Donnelly CA, Cori A, Nouvellet P. (2023). Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts. PloS one, 18(10)
Perez-Guzman PN, Knock E, Imai N, Rawson T, Elmaci Y, Alcada J, Whittles LK, Thekke Kanapram D, Sonabend R, Gaythorpe KAM, Hinsley W, FitzJohn RG, Volz E, Verity R, Ferguson NM, Cori A, Baguelin M. (2023). Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England. Nature communications, 14(1)
Laydon DJ, Cauchemez S, Hinsley WR, Bhatt S, Ferguson NM. (2023). Impact of proactive and reactive vaccination strategies for health-care workers against MERS-CoV: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet. Global health, 11(5)
Johnson R, Djaafara B, Haw D, Doohan P, Forchini G, Pianella M, Ferguson N, Smith PC, Hauck KD. (2023). The societal value of SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccination in Indonesia. Vaccine, 41(11)
Perez-Guzman PN, Knock E, Imai N, Rawson T, Elmaci Y, Alcada J, Whittles LK, Thekke Kanapram D, Sonabend R, Gaythorpe KAM, Hinsley W, FitzJohn RG, Volz E, Verity R, Ferguson NM, Cori A, Baguelin M. (2023). Author Correction: Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England. Nature communications, 14(1)
McCormack CP, Goethals O, Goeyvaerts N, Woot de Trixhe XD, Geluykens P, Borrenberghs D, Ferguson NM, Ackaert O, Dorigatti I. (2023). Modelling the impact of JNJ-1802, a first-in-class dengue inhibitor blocking the NS3-NS4B interaction, on in-vitro DENV-2 dynamics. PLoS computational biology, 19(12)
Killingley B, Mann AJ, Kalinova M, Boyers A, Goonawardane N, Zhou J, Lindsell K, Hare SS, Brown J, Frise R, Smith E, Hopkins C, Noulin N, Löndt B, Wilkinson T, Harden S, McShane H, Baillet M, Gilbert A, Jacobs M, Charman C, Mande P, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Semple MG, Read RC, Ferguson NM, Openshaw PJ, Rapeport G, Barclay WS, Catchpole AP, Chiu C. (2022). Safety, tolerability and viral kinetics during SARS-CoV-2 human challenge in young adults. Nature medicine
Dabrera G, Allen H, Zaidi A, Flannagan J, Twohig K, Thelwall S, Marchant E, Aziz NA, Lamagni T, Myers R, Charlett A, Capelastegui F, Chudasama D, Clare T, Coukan F, Sinnathamby M, Ferguson N, Hopkins S, Chand M, Hope R, Kall M, . (2022). Assessment of mortality and hospital admissions associated with confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant: a matched cohort and time-to-event analysis, England, October to December 2020. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 27(20)
Toor J, Li X, Jit M, Trotter CL, Echeverria-Londono S, Hartner AM, Roth J, Portnoy A, Abbas K, Ferguson NM, Am Gaythorpe K. (2022). COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery. Vaccine
Imai N, Gaythorpe KAM, Bhatia S, Mangal TD, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Unwin HJT, Jauneikaite E, Ferguson NM. (2022). COVID-19 in Japan, January-March 2020: insights from the first three months of the epidemic. BMC infectious diseases, 22(1)
Brazeau NF, Verity R, Jenks S, Fu H, Whittaker C, Winskill P, Dorigatti I, Walker PGT, Riley S, Schnekenberg RP, Hoeltgebaum H, Mellan TA, Mishra S, Unwin HJT, Watson OJ, Cucunubá ZM, Baguelin M, Whittles L, Bhatt S, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Okell LC. (2022). Estimating the COVID-19 infection fatality ratio accounting for seroreversion using statistical modelling. Communications medicine, (2)
Hakki S, Zhou J, Jonnerby J, Singanayagam A, Barnett JL, Madon KJ, Koycheva A, Kelly C, Houston H, Nevin S, Fenn J, Kundu R, Crone MA, Ahmad S, Derqui-Fernandez N, Conibear E, Freemont PS, Taylor GP, Ferguson N, Zambon M, Barclay WS, Dunning J, Lalvani A, . (2022). Onset and window of SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness and temporal correlation with symptom onset: a prospective, longitudinal, community cohort study. The Lancet. Respiratory medicine
Nyberg T, Ferguson NM, Nash SG, Webster HH, Flaxman S, Andrews N, Hinsley W, Bernal JL, Kall M, Bhatt S, Blomquist P, Zaidi A, Volz E, Aziz NA, Harman K, Funk S, Abbott S, , Hope R, Charlett A, Chand M, Ghani AC, Seaman SR, Dabrera G, De Angelis D, Presanis AM, Thelwall S. (2022). Comparative analysis of the risks of hospitalisation and death associated with SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) and delta (B.1.617.2) variants in England: a cohort study. Lancet
Echeverria-Londono S, Hartner AM, Li X, Roth J, Portnoy A, Sbarra AN, Abbas K, Ferrari M, Fu H, Jit M, Ferguson NM, Gaythorpe KAM. (2022). Exploring the subnational inequality and heterogeneity of the impact of routine measles immunisation in Africa. Vaccine
Ali HA, Hartner AM, Echeverria-Londono S, Roth J, Li X, Abbas K, Portnoy A, Vynnycky E, Woodruff K, Ferguson NM, Toor J, Gaythorpe KA. (2022). Vaccine equity in low and middle income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis. International journal for equity in health, 21(1)
Nyberg T, Ferguson NM, Blake J, Hinsley W, Bhatt S, De Angelis D, Thelwall S, Presanis AM. (2022). Misclassification bias in estimating clinical severity of SARS-CoV-2 variants - Authors' reply. Lancet, 400(10355)
Ahmed Ali H, Hartner AM, Echeverria-Londono S, Roth J, Li X, Abbas K, Portnoy A, Vynnycky E, Woodruff K, Ferguson NM, Toor J, Gaythorpe KAM. (2022). Correction: Vaccine equity in low and middle income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis. International journal for equity in health, 21(1)
Unwin HJT, Cori A, Imai N, Gaythorpe KAM, Bhatia S, Cattarino L, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Baguelin M. (2022). Using next generation matrices to estimate the proportion of infections that are not detected in an outbreak. Epidemics, (41)
Haw DJ, Forchini G, Doohan P, Christen P, Pianella M, Johnson R, Bajaj S, Hogan AB, Winskill P, Miraldo M, White PJ, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Smith PC, Hauck KD. (2022). Optimizing social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using DAEDALUS. Nature computational science, 2(4)
Green W, Ferguson N, Cori A. (2022). Inferring the reproduction number using the renewal equation in heterogeneous epidemics. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 19(188)
Andrews N, Stowe J, Kirsebom F, Toffa S, Rickeard T, Gallagher E, Gower C, Kall M, Groves N, O'Connell AM, Simons D, Blomquist PB, Zaidi A, Nash S, Iwani Binti Abdul Aziz N, Thelwall S, Dabrera G, Myers R, Amirthalingam G, Gharbia S, Barrett JC, Elson R, Ladhani SN, Ferguson N, Zambon M, Campbell CNJ, Brown K, Hopkins S, Chand M, Ramsay M, Lopez Bernal J. (2022). Covid-19 Vaccine Effectiveness against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) Variant. The New England journal of medicine
Mishra S, Scott JA, Laydon DJ, Zhu H, Ferguson NM, Bhatt S, Flaxman S, Gandy A. (2022). Authors' reply to the discussion of 'A COVID-19 Model for Local Authorities of the United Kingdom' by Mishra et al. in Session 2 of the Royal Statistical Society's Special Topic Meeting on COVID-19 transmission: 11 June 2021. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society), 185(Suppl 1)
Mishra S, Scott JA, Laydon DJ, Zhu H, Ferguson NM, Bhatt S, Flaxman S, Gandy A. (2022). A COVID-19 model for local authorities of the United Kingdom. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society), 185(Suppl 1)
Sonabend R, Whittles LK, Imai N, Perez-Guzman PN, Knock ES, Rawson T, Gaythorpe KAM, Djaafara BA, Hinsley W, FitzJohn RG, Lees JA, Kanapram DT, Volz EM, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Baguelin M, Cori A. (2021). Non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination, and the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in England: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet, 398(10313)
Li X, Mukandavire C, Cucunubá ZM, Echeverria Londono S, Abbas K, Clapham HE, Jit M, Johnson HL, Papadopoulos T, Vynnycky E, Brisson M, Carter ED, Clark A, de Villiers MJ, Eilertson K, Ferrari MJ, Gamkrelidze I, Gaythorpe KAM, Grassly NC, Hallett TB, Hinsley W, Jackson ML, Jean K, Karachaliou A, Klepac P, Lessler J, Li X, Moore SM, Nayagam S, Nguyen DM, Razavi H, Razavi-Shearer D, Resch S, Sanderson C, Sweet S, Sy S, Tam Y, Tanvir H, Tran QM, Trotter CL, Truelove S, van Zandvoort K, Verguet S, Walker N, Winter A, Woodruff K, Ferguson NM, Garske T, . (2021). Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study. Lancet, 397(10272)
Singanayagam A, Hakki S, Dunning J, Madon KJ, Crone MA, Koycheva A, Derqui-Fernandez N, Barnett JL, Whitfield MG, Varro R, Charlett A, Kundu R, Fenn J, Cutajar J, Quinn V, Conibear E, Barclay W, Freemont PS, Taylor GP, Ahmad S, Zambon M, Ferguson NM, Lalvani A, . (2021). Community transmission and viral load kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in the UK: a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study. The Lancet. Infectious diseases
Lalvani A, Hakki S, Singanayagam A, Dunning J, Barnett JL, Crone MA, Freemont PS, Ferguson NM. (2021). Transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 among fully vaccinated individuals - Authors' reply. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 22(1)
Sabino EC, Buss LF, Carvalho MPS, Prete CA Jr., Crispim MAE, Fraiji NA, Pereira RHM, Parag KV, da Silva Peixoto P, Kraemer MUG, Oikawa MK, Salomon T, Cucunuba ZM, Castro MC, de Souza Santos AA, Nascimento VH, Pereira HS, Ferguson NM, Pybus OG, Kucharski A, Busch MP, Dye C, Faria NR. (2021). Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence. Lancet
Williams LR, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Grassly NC. (2021). Measuring vaccine efficacy against infection and disease in clinical trials: sources and magnitude of bias in COVID-19 vaccine efficacy estimates. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
Houston H, Hakki S, Pillay TD, Madon K, Derqui-Fernandez N, Koycheva A, Singanayagam A, Fenn J, Kundu R, Conibear E, Varro R, Cutajar J, Quinn V, Wang L, Narean JS, Tolosa-Wright MR, Barnett J, Kon OM, Tedder R, Taylor G, Zambon M, Ferguson N, Dunning J, Deeks JJ, Lalvani A. (2021). Broadening symptom criteria improves early case identification in SARS-CoV-2 contacts. The European respiratory journal
Volz E, Mishra S, Chand M, Barrett JC, Johnson R, Geidelberg L, Hinsley WR, Laydon DJ, Dabrera G, O'Toole Á, Amato R, Ragonnet-Cronin M, Harrison I, Jackson B, Ariani CV, Boyd O, Loman NJ, McCrone JT, Gonçalves S, Jorgensen D, Myers R, Hill V, Jackson DK, Gaythorpe K, Groves N, Sillitoe J, Kwiatkowski DP, , Flaxman S, Ratmann O, Bhatt S, Hopkins S, Gandy A, Rambaut A, Ferguson NM. (2021). Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Nature
Vollmer MAC, Radhakrishnan S, Kont MD, Flaxman S, Bhatt S, Costelloe C, Honeyford K, Aylin P, Cooke G, Redhead J, Sanders A, Mangan H, White PJ, Ferguson N, Hauck K, Nayagam S, Perez-Guzman PN. (2021). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patterns of attendance at emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study. BMC health services research, 21(1)
Laydon DJ, Mishra S, Hinsley WR, Samartsidis P, Flaxman S, Gandy A, Ferguson NM, Bhatt S. (2021). Modelling the impact of the tier system on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns. BMJ open, 11(4)
Watson OJ, Alhaffar M, Mehchy Z, Whittaker C, Akil Z, Brazeau NF, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Hamlet A, Thompson HA, Baguelin M, FitzJohn RG, Knock E, Lees JA, Whittles LK, Mellan T, Winskill P, , Howard N, Clapham H, Checchi F, Ferguson N, Ghani A, Beals E, Walker P. (2021). Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria. Nature communications, 12(1)
Knock ES, Whittles LK, Lees JA, Perez-Guzman PN, Verity R, FitzJohn RG, Gaythorpe KAM, Imai N, Hinsley W, Okell LC, Rosello A, Kantas N, Walters CE, Bhatia S, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Cattarino L, Boonyasiri A, Djaafara BA, Fraser K, Fu H, Wang H, Xi X, Donnelly CA, Jauneikaite E, Laydon DJ, White PJ, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Cori A, Baguelin M. (2021). Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England. Science translational medicine
Dorigatti I, Lavezzo E, Manuto L, Ciavarella C, Pacenti M, Boldrin C, Cattai M, Saluzzo F, Franchin E, Del Vecchio C, Caldart F, Castelli G, Nicoletti M, Nieddu E, Salvadoretti E, Labella B, Fava L, Guglielmo S, Fascina M, Grazioli M, Alvisi G, Vanuzzo MC, Zupo T, Calandrin R, Lisi V, Rossi L, Castagliuolo I, Merigliano S, Unwin HJT, Plebani M, Padoan A, Brazzale AR, Toppo S, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Crisanti A. (2021). SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics and transmission from community-wide serological testing in the Italian municipality of Vo'. Nature communications, 12(1)
Mishra S, Mindermann S, Sharma M, Whittaker C, Mellan TA, Wilton T, Klapsa D, Mate R, Fritzsche M, Zambon M, Ahuja J, Howes A, Miscouridou X, Nason GP, Ratmann O, Semenova E, Leech G, Sandkühler JF, Rogers-Smith C, Vollmer M, Unwin HJT, Gal Y, Chand M, Gandy A, Martin J, Volz E, Ferguson NM, Bhatt S, Brauner JM, Flaxman S, . (2021). Changing composition of SARS-CoV-2 lineages and rise of Delta variant in England. EClinicalMedicine, (39)
Nouvellet P, Bhatia S, Cori A, Ainslie KEC, Baguelin M, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Brazeau NF, Cattarino L, Cooper LV, Coupland H, Cucunuba ZM, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Dighe A, Djaafara BA, Dorigatti I, Eales OD, van Elsland SL, Nascimento FF, FitzJohn RG, Gaythorpe KAM, Geidelberg L, Green WD, Hamlet A, Hauck K, Hinsley W, Imai N, Jeffrey B, Knock E, Laydon DJ, Lees JA, Mangal T, Mellan TA, Nedjati-Gilani G, Parag KV, Pons-Salort M, Ragonnet-Cronin M, Riley S, Unwin HJT, Verity R, Vollmer MAC, Volz E, Walker PGT, Walters CE, Wang H, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Whittles LK, Xi X, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA. (2021). Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission. Nature communications, 12(1)
Gaythorpe KA, Hamlet A, Jean K, Garkauskas Ramos D, Cibrelus L, Garske T, Ferguson N. (2021). The global burden of yellow fever. eLife, (10)
Gaythorpe KAM, Bhatia S, Mangal T, Unwin HJT, Imai N, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Walters CE, Jauneikaite E, Bayley H, Kont MD, Mousa A, Whittles LK, Riley S, Ferguson NM. (2021). Publisher Correction: Children's role in the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of early surveillance data on susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility. Scientific reports, 11(1)
Hamlet A, Ramos DG, Gaythorpe KAM, Romano APM, Garske T, Ferguson NM. (2021). Seasonality of agricultural exposure as an important predictor of seasonal yellow fever spillover in Brazil. Nature communications, 12(1)
Lavezzo E, Franchin E, Ciavarella C, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Barzon L, Del Vecchio C, Rossi L, Manganelli R, Loregian A, Navarin N, Abate D, Sciro M, Merigliano S, De Canale E, Vanuzzo MC, Besutti V, Saluzzo F, Onelia F, Pacenti M, Parisi SG, Carretta G, Donato D, Flor L, Cocchio S, Masi G, Sperduti A, Cattarino L, Salvador R, Nicoletti M, Caldart F, Castelli G, Nieddu E, Labella B, Fava L, Drigo M, Gaythorpe KAM, , Brazzale AR, Toppo S, Trevisan M, Baldo V, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Dorigatti I, Crisanti A. (2021). Author Correction: Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo'. Nature
Faria NR, Mellan TA, Whittaker C, Claro IM, Candido DDS, Mishra S, Crispim MAE, Sales FCS, Hawryluk I, McCrone JT, Hulswit RJG, Franco LAM, Ramundo MS, de Jesus JG, Andrade PS, Coletti TM, Ferreira GM, Silva CAM, Manuli ER, Pereira RHM, Peixoto PS, Kraemer MUG, Gaburo N Jr., Camilo CDC, Hoeltgebaum H, Souza WM, Rocha EC, de Souza LM, de Pinho MC, Araujo LJT, Malta FSV, de Lima AB, Silva JDP, Zauli DAG, Ferreira ACS, Schnekenberg RP, Laydon DJ, Walker PGT, Schlüter HM, Dos Santos ALP, Vidal MS, Del Caro VS, Filho RMF, Dos Santos HM, Aguiar RS, Proença-Modena JL, Nelson B, Hay JA, Monod M, Miscouridou X, Coupland H, Sonabend R, Vollmer M, Gandy A, Prete CA Jr., Nascimento VH, Suchard MA, Bowden TA, Pond SLK, Wu CH, Ratmann O, Ferguson NM, Dye C, Loman NJ, Lemey P, Rambaut A, Fraiji NA, Carvalho MDPSS, Pybus OG, Flaxman S, Bhatt S, Sabino EC. (2021). Genomics and epidemiology of the P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil. Science (New York, N.Y.)
Toor J, Echeverria-Londono S, Li X, Abbas K, Carter ED, Clapham HE, Clark A, de Villiers MJ, Eilertson K, Ferrari M, Gamkrelidze I, Hallett TB, Hinsley WR, Hogan D, Huber JH, Jackson ML, Jean K, Jit M, Karachaliou A, Klepac P, Kraay A, Lessler J, Li X, Lopman BA, Mengistu T, Metcalf CJE, Moore SM, Nayagam S, Papadopoulos T, Perkins TA, Portnoy A, Razavi H, Razavi-Shearer D, Resch S, Sanderson C, Sweet S, Tam Y, Tanvir H, Tran Minh Q, Trotter CL, Truelove SA, Vynnycky E, Walker N, Winter A, Woodruff K, Ferguson NM, Gaythorpe KA. (2021). Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world. eLife, (10)
Bhatia S, Imai N, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Baguelin M, Boonyasiri A, Cori A, Cucunubá Z, Dorigatti I, FitzJohn R, Fu H, Gaythorpe K, Ghani A, Hamlet A, Hinsley W, Laydon D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Okell L, Riley S, Thompson H, van Elsland S, Volz E, Wang H, Wang Y, Whittaker C, Xi X, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. (2021). Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China. Wellcome open research, (5)
Gaythorpe KAM, Toor J, Echeverria-Londono S, Li X, Ferguson NM. (2021). Vaccines can save children with non-preventable diseases - Authors' reply. Lancet, 397(10291)
Whittaker C, Walker PGT, Alhaffar M, Hamlet A, Djaafara BA, Ghani A, Ferguson N, Dahab M, Checchi F, Watson OJ. (2021). Under-reporting of deaths limits our understanding of true burden of covid-19. BMJ (Clinical research ed.), (375)
Ragonnet-Cronin M, Boyd O, Geidelberg L, Jorgensen D, Nascimento FF, Siveroni I, Johnson RA, Baguelin M, Cucunubá ZM, Jauneikaite E, Mishra S, Watson OJ, Ferguson N, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Volz E. (2021). Genetic evidence for the association between COVID-19 epidemic severity and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Nature communications, 12(1)
Dorigatti I, Lavezzo E, Manuto L, Ciavarella C, Pacenti M, Boldrin C, Cattai M, Saluzzo F, Franchin E, Del Vecchio C, Caldart F, Castelli G, Nicoletti M, Nieddu E, Salvadoretti E, Labella B, Fava L, Guglielmo S, Fascina M, Grazioli M, Alvisi G, Vanuzzo MC, Zupo T, Calandrin R, Lisi V, Rossi L, Castagliuolo I, Merigliano S, Unwin HJT, Plebani M, Padoan A, Brazzale AR, Toppo S, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Crisanti A. (2021). Author Correction: SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics and transmission from community-wide serological testing in the Italian municipality of Vo'. Nature communications, 12(1)
Hamlet A, Gaythorpe KAM, Garske T, Ferguson NM. (2021). Seasonal and inter-annual drivers of yellow fever transmission in South America. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 15(1)
Ciavarella C, Ferguson NM. (2021). Deriving fine-scale models of human mobility from aggregated origin-destination flow data. PLoS computational biology, 17(2)
Mishra S, Scott JA, Laydon DJ, Flaxman S, Gandy A, Mellan TA, Unwin HJT, Vollmer M, Coupland H, Ratmann O, Monod M, Zhu HH, Cori A, Gaythorpe KAM, Whittles LK, Whittaker C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Bhatt S. (2021). Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling. Scientific reports, 11(1)
FitzJohn RG, Knock ES, Whittles LK, Perez-Guzman PN, Bhatia S, Guntoro F, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Ferguson NM, Cori A, Baguelin M, Lees JA. (2021). Reproducible parallel inference and simulation of stochastic state space models using odin, dust, and mcstate. Wellcome open research, (5)
Thompson HA, Mousa A, Dighe A, Fu H, Arnedo-Pena A, Barrett P, Bellido-Blasco J, Bi Q, Caputi A, Chaw L, De Maria L, Hoffmann M, Mahapure K, Ng K, Raghuram J, Singh G, Soman B, Soriano V, Valent F, Vimercati L, Wee LE, Wong J, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. (2021). SARS-CoV-2 setting-specific transmission rates: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
McCabe R, Kont MD, Schmit N, Whittaker C, Løchen A, Baguelin M, Knock E, Whittles LK, Lees J, Brazeau NF, Walker PGT, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, White PJ, Donnelly CA, Hauck K, Watson OJ. (2021). Modelling intensive care unit capacity under different epidemiological scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic in three Western European countries. International journal of epidemiology
Echeverria-Londono S, Li X, Toor J, de Villiers MJ, Nayagam S, Hallett TB, Abbas K, Jit M, Klepac P, Jean K, Garske T, Ferguson NM, Gaythorpe KAM. (2021). How can the public health impact of vaccination be estimated?. BMC public health, 21(1)
Hogan AB, Winskill P, Watson OJ, Walker PGT, Whittaker C, Baguelin M, Brazeau NF, Charles GD, Gaythorpe KAM, Hamlet A, Knock E, Laydon DJ, Lees JA, Løchen A, Verity R, Whittles LK, Muhib F, Hauck K, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC. (2021). Within-country age-based prioritisation, global allocation, and public health impact of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical modelling analysis. Vaccine
Morris AL, Ghani A, Ferguson N. (2021). Fine-scale estimation of key life-history parameters of malaria vectors: implications for next-generation vector control technologies. Parasites & vectors, 14(1)
Ohrnberger J, Segal AB, Forchini G, Miraldo M, Skarp J, Nedjati-Gilani G, Laydon DJ, Ghani A, Ferguson NM, Hauck K. (2021). The impact of a COVID-19 lockdown on work productivity under good and poor compliance. European journal of public health
Gaythorpe KAM, Bhatia S, Mangal T, Unwin HJT, Imai N, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Walters CE, Jauneikaite E, Bayley H, Kont MD, Mousa A, Whittles LK, Riley S, Ferguson NM. (2021). Children's role in the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of early surveillance data on susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility. Scientific reports, 11(1)
Faria NR, Mellan TA, Whittaker C, Claro IM, Candido DDS, Mishra S, Crispim MAE, Sales FC, Hawryluk I, McCrone JT, Hulswit RJG, Franco LAM, Ramundo MS, de Jesus JG, Andrade PS, Coletti TM, Ferreira GM, Silva CAM, Manuli ER, Pereira RHM, Peixoto PS, Kraemer MU, Gaburo N Jr., Camilo CDC, Hoeltgebaum H, Souza WM, Rocha EC, de Souza LM, de Pinho MC, Araujo LJT, Malta FSV, de Lima AB, Silva JDP, Zauli DAG, de S Ferreira AC, Schnekenberg RP, Laydon DJ, Walker PGT, Schlüter HM, Dos Santos ALP, Vidal MS, Del Caro VS, Filho RMF, Dos Santos HM, Aguiar RS, Modena JLP, Nelson B, Hay JA, Monod M, Miscouridou X, Coupland H, Sonabend R, Vollmer M, Gandy A, Suchard MA, Bowden TA, Pond SLK, Wu CH, Ratmann O, Ferguson NM, Dye C, Loman NJ, Lemey P, Rambaut A, Fraiji NA, Carvalho MDPSS, Pybus OG, Flaxman S, Bhatt S, Sabino EC. (2021). Genomics and epidemiology of a novel SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
D'Aeth JC, Ghosal S, Grimm F, Haw D, Koca E, Lau K, Moret S, Rizmie D, Deeny SR, Perez-Guzman PN, Ferguson N, Hauck K, Smith PC, Forchini G, Wiesemann W, Miraldo M. (2021). Optimal national prioritization policies for hospital care during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Nature computational science, 1(8)
Laydon DJ, Dorigatti I, Hinsley WR, Nedjati-Gilani GL, Coudeville L, Ferguson NM. (2021). Efficacy profile of the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine revealed by Bayesian survival analysis of individual-level Phase III data. eLife, (10)
McCabe R, Kont MD, Schmit N, Whittaker C, Løchen A, Walker PGT, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, White PJ, Donnelly CA, Watson OJ. (2021). Communicating uncertainty in epidemic models. Epidemics, (37)
Monod M, Blenkinsop A, Xi X, Hebert D, Bershan S, Tietze S, Baguelin M, Bradley VC, Chen Y, Coupland H, Filippi S, Ish-Horowicz J, McManus M, Mellan T, Gandy A, Hutchinson M, Unwin HJT, van Elsland SL, Vollmer MAC, Weber S, Zhu H, Bezancon A, Ferguson NM, Mishra S, Flaxman S, Bhatt S, Ratmann O, . (2021). Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States. Science (New York, N.Y.)
Verity R, Okell L, Dorigatti I, Winskill P, Whittaker C, Walker P, Donnelly C, Ferguson N, Ghani A. (2020). COVID-19 and the difficulty of inferring epidemiological parameters from clinical data - Authors' reply. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 21(1)
Flaxman S, Mishra S, Scott J, Ferguson N, Gandy A, Bhatt S. (2020). Reply to: The effect of interventions on COVID-19. Nature, 588(7839)
Okell LC, Verity R, Katzourakis A, Volz EM, Watson OJ, Mishra S, Walker P, Whittaker C, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Ghani AC, Gandy A, Flaxman S, Ferguson NM, Bhatt S. (2020). Host or pathogen-related factors in COVID-19 severity? - Authors' reply. Lancet, 396(10260)
Ainslie KEC, Walters CE, Fu H, Bhatia S, Wang H, Xi X, Baguelin M, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Boyd O, Cattarino L, Ciavarella C, Cucunuba Z, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Dighe A, Dorigatti I, van Elsland SL, FitzJohn R, Gaythorpe K, Ghani AC, Green W, Hamlet A, Hinsley W, Imai N, Jorgensen D, Knock E, Laydon D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Okell LC, Siveroni I, Thompson HA, Unwin HJT, Verity R, Vollmer M, Walker PGT, Wang Y, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Winskill P, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Riley S. (2020). Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment. Wellcome open research, (5)
Lavezzo E, Franchin E, Ciavarella C, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Barzon L, Del Vecchio C, Rossi L, Manganelli R, Loregian A, Navarin N, Abate D, Sciro M, Merigliano S, De Canale E, Vanuzzo MC, Besutti V, Saluzzo F, Onelia F, Pacenti M, Parisi S, Carretta G, Donato D, Flor L, Cocchio S, Masi G, Sperduti A, Cattarino L, Salvador R, Nicoletti M, Caldart F, Castelli G, Nieddu E, Labella B, Fava L, Drigo M, Gaythorpe KAM, , Brazzale AR, Toppo S, Trevisan M, Baldo V, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Dorigatti I, Crisanti A. (2020). Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo'. Nature
Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, Winskill P, Whittaker C, Imai N, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Thompson H, Walker PGT, Fu H, Dighe A, Griffin JT, Baguelin M, Bhatia S, Boonyasiri A, Cori A, Cucunubá Z, FitzJohn R, Gaythorpe K, Green W, Hamlet A, Hinsley W, Laydon D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Riley S, van Elsland S, Volz E, Wang H, Wang Y, Xi X, Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. (2020). Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. The Lancet. Infectious diseases
Cattarino L, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Imai N, Cummings DAT, Ferguson NM. (2020). Mapping global variation in dengue transmission intensity. Science translational medicine, 12(528)
Gaythorpe KA, Hamlet A, Cibrelus L, Garske T, Ferguson NM. (2020). The effect of climate change on yellow fever disease burden in Africa. eLife, (9)
Candido DS, Claro IM, de Jesus JG, Souza WM, Moreira FRR, Dellicour S, Mellan TA, du Plessis L, Pereira RHM, Sales FCS, Manuli ER, Thézé J, Almeida L, Menezes MT, Voloch CM, Fumagalli MJ, Coletti TM, da Silva CAM, Ramundo MS, Amorim MR, Hoeltgebaum HH, Mishra S, Gill MS, Carvalho LM, Buss LF, Prete CA Jr., Ashworth J, Nakaya HI, Peixoto PS, Brady OJ, Nicholls SM, Tanuri A, Rossi ÁD, Braga CKV, Gerber AL, de C Guimarães AP, Gaburo N Jr., Alencar CS, Ferreira ACS, Lima CX, Levi JE, Granato C, Ferreira GM, Francisco RS Jr., Granja F, Garcia MT, Moretti ML, Perroud MW Jr., Castiñeiras TMPP, Lazari CS, Hill SC, de Souza Santos AA, Simeoni CL, Forato J, Sposito AC, Schreiber AZ, Santos MNN, de Sá CZ, Souza RP, Resende-Moreira LC, Teixeira MM, Hubner J, Leme PAF, Moreira RG, Nogueira ML, , Ferguson NM, Costa SF, Proenca-Modena JL, Vasconcelos ATR, Bhatt S, Lemey P, Wu CH, Rambaut A, Loman NJ, Aguiar RS, Pybus OG, Sabino EC, Faria NR. (2020). Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil. Science (New York, N.Y.), 369(6508)
Thompson HA, Imai N, Dighe A, Ainslie KEC, Baguelin M, Bhatia S, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Boyd O, Brazeau NF, Cattarino L, Cooper LV, Coupland H, Cucunuba Z, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Djaafara B, Dorigatti I, Elsland S, FitzJohn R, Fu H, Gaythorpe KAM, Green W, Hallett T, Hamlet A, Haw D, Hayes S, Hinsley W, Jeffrey B, Knock E, Laydon DJ, Lees J, Mangal TD, Mellan T, Mishra S, Mousa A, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Okell L, Parag KV, Ragonnet-Cronin M, Riley S, Unwin HJT, Verity R, Vollmer M, Volz E, Walker PGT, Walters C, Wang H, Wang Y, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Whittles LK, Winskill P, Xi X, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. (2020). SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence on repatriation flights from Wuhan City, China. Journal of travel medicine
Grassly NC, Pons-Salort M, Parker EPK, White PJ, Ferguson NM,. (2020). Comparison of molecular testing strategies for COVID-19 control: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet. Infectious diseases
Jeffrey B, Walters CE, Ainslie KEC, Eales O, Ciavarella C, Bhatia S, Hayes S, Baguelin M, Boonyasiri A, Brazeau NF, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, FitzJohn RG, Gaythorpe K, Green W, Imai N, Mellan TA, Mishra S, Nouvellet P, Unwin HJT, Verity R, Vollmer M, Whittaker C, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Riley S. (2020). Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with COVID-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK. Wellcome open research, (5)
McCabe R, Schmit N, Christen P, D'Aeth JC, Løchen A, Rizmie D, Nayagam S, Miraldo M, Aylin P, Bottle A, Perez-Guzman PN, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, White PJ, Hauck K. (2020). Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic. BMC medicine, 18(1)
Pellis L, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM, Fraser C. (2020). Systematic selection between age and household structure for models aimed at emerging epidemic predictions. Nature communications, 11(1)
Hogan AB, Jewell BL, Sherrard-Smith E, Vesga JF, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Hamlet A, Smith JA, Winskill P, Verity R, Baguelin M, Lees JA, Whittles LK, Ainslie KEC, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Brazeau NF, Cattarino L, Cooper LV, Coupland H, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Dighe A, Djaafara BA, Donnelly CA, Eaton JW, van Elsland SL, FitzJohn RG, Fu H, Gaythorpe KAM, Green W, Haw DJ, Hayes S, Hinsley W, Imai N, Laydon DJ, Mangal TD, Mellan TA, Mishra S, Nedjati-Gilani G, Parag KV, Thompson HA, Unwin HJT, Vollmer MAC, Walters CE, Wang H, Wang Y, Xi X, Ferguson NM, Okell LC, Churcher TS, Arinaminpathy N, Ghani AC, Walker PGT, Hallett TB. (2020). Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study. The Lancet. Global health
Walker PGT, Whittaker C, Watson OJ, Baguelin M, Winskill P, Hamlet A, Djafaara BA, Cucunubá Z, Olivera Mesa D, Green W, Thompson H, Nayagam S, Ainslie KEC, Bhatia S, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Boyd O, Brazeau NF, Cattarino L, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Dighe A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, van Elsland SL, FitzJohn R, Fu H, Gaythorpe KAM, Geidelberg L, Grassly N, Haw D, Hayes S, Hinsley W, Imai N, Jorgensen D, Knock E, Laydon D, Mishra S, Nedjati-Gilani G, Okell LC, Unwin HJ, Verity R, Vollmer M, Walters CE, Wang H, Wang Y, Xi X, Lalloo DG, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries. Science (New York, N.Y.)
Okell LC, Verity R, Watson OJ, Mishra S, Walker P, Whittaker C, Katzourakis A, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Ghani AC, Gandy A, Flaxman S, Ferguson NM, Bhatt S. (2020). Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity?. Lancet
Biggerstaff M, Cowling BJ, Cucunubá ZM, Dinh L, Ferguson NM, Gao H, Hill V, Imai N, Johansson MA, Kada S, Morgan O, Pastore Y Piontti A, Polonsky JA, Prasad PV, Quandelacy TM, Rambaut A, Tappero JW, Vandemaele KA, Vespignani A, Warmbrod KL, Wong JY,. (2020). Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19. Emerging infectious diseases, 26(11)
Dighe A, Cattarino L, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Skarp J, Imai N, Bhatia S, Gaythorpe KAM, Ainslie KEC, Baguelin M, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Brazeau NF, Cooper LV, Coupland H, Cucunuba Z, Dorigatti I, Eales OD, van Elsland SL, FitzJohn RG, Green WD, Haw DJ, Hinsley W, Knock E, Laydon DJ, Mellan T, Mishra S, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Pons-Salort M, Thompson HA, Unwin HJT, Verity R, Vollmer MAC, Walters CE, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Whittles LK, Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Riley S. (2020). Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions. BMC medicine, 18(1)
Flaxman S, Mishra S, Gandy A, Unwin HJT, Mellan TA, Coupland H, Whittaker C, Zhu H, Berah T, Eaton JW, Monod M, , Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Riley SM, Vollmer MAC, Ferguson NM, Okell LC, Bhatt S. (2020). Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature
Jean K, Hamlet A, Benzler J, Cibrelus L, Gaythorpe KAM, Sall A, Ferguson NM, Garske T. (2020). Eliminating yellow fever epidemics in Africa: Vaccine demand forecast and impact modelling. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 14(5)
Perez-Guzman PN, Daunt A, Mukherjee S, Crook P, Forlano R, Kont MD, Løchen A, Vollmer M, Middleton P, Judge R, Harlow C, Soubieres A, Cooke G, White PJ, Hallett TB, Aylin P, Ferguson N, Hauck K, Thursz MR, Nayagam S. (2020). Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in a multi-ethnic London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
O'Driscoll M, Imai N, Ferguson NM, Hadinegoro SR, Satari HI, Tam CC, Dorigatti I. (2020). Spatiotemporal variability in dengue transmission intensity in Jakarta, Indonesia. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 14(3)
Unwin HJT, Mishra S, Bradley VC, Gandy A, Mellan TA, Coupland H, Ish-Horowicz J, Vollmer MAC, Whittaker C, Filippi SL, Xi X, Monod M, Ratmann O, Hutchinson M, Valka F, Zhu H, Hawryluk I, Milton P, Ainslie KEC, Baguelin M, Boonyasiri A, Brazeau NF, Cattarino L, Cucunuba Z, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Dorigatti I, Eales OD, Eaton JW, van Elsland SL, FitzJohn RG, Gaythorpe KAM, Green W, Hinsley W, Jeffrey B, Knock E, Laydon DJ, Lees J, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Okell L, Parag KV, Siveroni I, Thompson HA, Walker P, Walters CE, Watson OJ, Whittles LK, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Riley S, Donnelly CA, Bhatt S, Flaxman S. (2020). State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States. Nature communications, 11(1)
Fu H, Wang H, Xi X, Boonyasiri A, Wang Y, Hinsley W, Fraser KJ, McCabe R, Olivera Mesa D, Skarp J, Ledda A, Dewé T, Dighe A, Winskill P, van Elsland SL, Ainslie KEC, Baguelin M, Bhatt S, Boyd O, Brazeau NF, Cattarino L, Charles G, Coupland H, Cucunuba ZM, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Eales OD, FitzJohn RG, Flaxman S, Gaythorpe KAM, Ghani AC, Green WD, Hamlet A, Hauck K, Haw DJ, Jeffrey B, Laydon DJ, Lees JA, Mellan T, Mishra S, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Okell L, Parag KV, Ragonnet-Cronin M, Riley S, Schmit N, Thompson HA, Unwin HJT, Verity R, Vollmer MAC, Volz E, Walker PGT, Walters CE, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Whittles LK, Imai N, Bhatia S, Ferguson NM. (2020). Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China. International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, (102)
Imai N, Gaythorpe KAM, Abbott S, Bhatia S, van Elsland S, Prem K, Liu Y, Ferguson NM. (2020). Adoption and impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19. Wellcome open research, (5)
Imai Natsuko, Dorigatti Ilaria, Cori Anne, Riley Steven, Ferguson Neil M. (2019). Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China V2 (updated to include second Thai case)
Campbell F, Cori A, Ferguson N, Jombart T. (2019). Bayesian inference of transmission chains using timing of symptoms, pathogen genomes and contact data. PLoS computational biology, 15(3)
McCormack CP, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. (2019). Fine-scale modelling finds that breeding site fragmentation can reduce mosquito population persistence. Communications biology, (2)
Dighe A, Jombart T, Van Kerkhove MD, Ferguson N. (2019). A systematic review of MERS-CoV seroprevalence and RNA prevalence in dromedary camels: Implications for animal vaccination. Epidemics
Campbell F, Strang C, Ferguson N, Cori A, Jombart T. (2018). When are pathogen genome sequences informative of transmission events?. PLoS pathogens, 14(2)
Ferguson NM. (2018). Challenges and opportunities in controlling mosquito-borne infections. Nature, 559(7715)
Imai N, Ferguson NM. (2018). Targeting vaccinations for the licensed dengue vaccine: Considerations for serosurvey design. PLoS One, 13(6)
Marshall JM, Wu SL, Sanchez C HM, Kiware SS, Ndhlovu M, Ouédraogo AL, Touré MB, Sturrock HJ, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. (2018). Mathematical models of human mobility of relevance to malaria transmission in Africa. Scientific reports, 8(1)
Miglianico M, Eldering M, Slater H, Ferguson N, Ambrose P, Lees RS, Koolen KMJ, Pruzinova K, Jancarova M, Volf P, Koenraadt CJM, Duerr HP, Trevitt G, Yang B, Chatterjee AK, Wisler J, Sturm A, Bousema T, Sauerwein RW, Schultz PG, Tremblay MS, Dechering KJ. (2018). Repurposing isoxazoline veterinary drugs for control of vector-borne human diseases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(29)
Magombedze G, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC. (2018). A trade-off between dry season survival longevity and wet season high net reproduction can explain the persistence of Anopheles mosquitoes. Parasites & vectors, 11(1)
Dorigatti I, McCormack C, Nedjati-Gilani G, Ferguson NM. (2018). Using Wolbachia for Dengue Control: Insights from Modelling. Trends in parasitology, 34(2)
Nouvellet P, Cori A, Garske T, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Van Kerkhove MD, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Riley S. (2018). A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence. Epidemics, (22)
Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Jombart T, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Mills HL, Blake IM. (2017). Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 372(1721)
Dorigatti I, Hamlet A, Aguas R, Cattarino L, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Garske T, Imai N, Ferguson NM. (2017). International risk of yellow fever spread from the ongoing outbreak in Brazil, December 2016 to May 2017. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 22(28)
Garske T, Cori A, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Eckmanns T, Fraser C, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Dye C, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA. (2017). Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013-2016. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 372(1721)
Flasche S, Jit M, Rodríguez-Barraquer I, Coudeville L, Recker M, Koelle K, Milne G, Hladish TJ, Perkins TA, Cummings DA, Dorigatti I, Laydon DJ, España G, Kelso J, Longini I, Lourenco J, Pearson CA, Reiner RC, Mier-Y-Terán-Romero L, Vannice K, Ferguson N. (2016). The Long-Term Safety, Public Health Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination with a Recombinant, Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine (Dengvaxia): A Model Comparison Study. PLoS medicine, 13(11)
Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Bawo L, Bilivogui P, Blake IM, Brennan RJ, Cawthorne A, Cleary E, Clement P, Conteh R, Cori A, Dafae F, Dahl B, Dangou JM, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Fallah M, Ferguson NM, Fiebig L, Fraser C, Garske T, Gonzalez L, Hamblion E, Hamid N, Hersey S, Hinsley W, Jambei A, Jombart T, Kargbo D, Keita S, Kinzer M, George FK, Godefroy B, Gutierrez G, Kannangarage N, Mills HL, Moller T, Meijers S, Mohamed Y, Morgan O, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Nyenswah T, Perea W, Perkins D, Riley S, Rodier G, Rondy M, Sagrado M, Savulescu C, Schafer IJ, Schumacher D, Seyler T, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Wesseh CS, Yoti Z. (2016). Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study. PLoS medicine, 13(11)
Clapham HE, Quyen TH, Kien DT, Dorigatti I, Simmons CP, Ferguson NM. (2016). Modelling Virus and Antibody Dynamics during Dengue Virus Infection Suggests a Role for Antibody in Virus Clearance. PLoS computational biology, 12(5)
Imai N, Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2016). Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 10(7)
Cauchemez S, Nouvellet P, Cori A, Jombart T, Garske T, Clapham H, Moore S, Mills HL, Salje H, Collins C, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Riley S, Truelove S, Algarni H, Alhakeem R, AlHarbi K, Turkistani A, Aguas RJ, Cummings DA, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Lessler J, Fraser C, Al-Barrak A, Ferguson NM. (2016). Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113(32)
Ferguson NM, Cucunubá ZM, Dorigatti I, Nedjati-Gilani GL, Donnelly CA, Basáñez MG, Nouvellet P, Lessler J. (2016). EPIDEMIOLOGY. Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America. Science (New York, N.Y.), 353(6297)
Lessler J, Chaisson LH, Kucirka LM, Bi Q, Grantz K, Salje H, Carcelen AC, Ott CT, Sheffield JS, Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Metcalf CJ, Rodriguez-Barraquer I. (2016). Assessing the global threat from Zika virus. Science (New York, N.Y.), 353(6300)
Marshall JM, Touré M, Ouédraogo AL, Ndhlovu M, Kiware SS, Rezai A, Nkhama E, Griffin JT, Hollingsworth TD, Doumbia S, Govella NJ, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC. (2016). Key traveller groups of relevance to spatial malaria transmission: a survey of movement patterns in four sub-Saharan African countries. Malaria journal, (15)
Metcalf CJ, Farrar J, Cutts FT, Basta NE, Graham AL, Lessler J, Ferguson NM, Burke DS, Grenfell BT. (2016). Use of serological surveys to generate key insights into the changing global landscape of infectious disease. Lancet, 388(10045)
Pothin E, Ferguson NM, Drakeley CJ, Ghani AC. (2016). Estimating malaria transmission intensity from Plasmodium falciparum serological data using antibody density models. Malaria journal, (15)
Lessler J, Salje H, Van Kerkhove MD, Ferguson NM, Cauchemez S, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Hakeem R, Jombart T, Aguas R, Al-Barrak A, Cummings DA, . (2016). Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. American journal of epidemiology, 183(7)
Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Thomas LJ, Van Kerkhove MD. (2016). Ebola Virus Disease among Male and Female Persons in West Africa. The New England journal of medicine, 374(1)
Jean K, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Garske T. (2016). A Meta-Analysis of Serological Response Associated with Yellow Fever Vaccination. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 95(6)
Pinsent A, Fraser C, Ferguson NM, Riley S. (2016). A systematic review of reported reassortant viral lineages of influenza A. BMC infectious diseases, (16)
Ferguson NM, Rodríguez-Barraquer I, Dorigatti I, Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L, Laydon DJ, Cummings DA. (2016). Benefits and risks of the Sanofi-Pasteur dengue vaccine: Modeling optimal deployment. Science (New York, N.Y.), 353(6303)
Karkey A, Jombart T, Walker AW, Thompson CN, Torres A, Dongol S, Tran Vu Thieu N, Pham Thanh D, Tran Thi Ngoc D, Voong Vinh P, Singer AC, Parkhill J, Thwaites G, Basnyat B, Ferguson N, Baker S. (2015). The Ecological Dynamics of Fecal Contamination and Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi A in Municipal Kathmandu Drinking Water. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 10(1)
Fumanelli L, Ajelli M, Merler S, Ferguson NM, Cauchemez S. (2015). Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics. PLoS computational biology, 12(1)
Imai N, Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2015). Estimating dengue transmission intensity from sero-prevalence surveys in multiple countries. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 9(4)
Gambhir M, Clark TA, Cauchemez S, Tartof SY, Swerdlow DL, Ferguson NM. (2015). A change in vaccine efficacy and duration of protection explains recent rises in pertussis incidence in the United States. PLoS computational biology, 11(4)
Walker PG, White MT, Griffin JT, Reynolds A, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC. (2015). Malaria morbidity and mortality in Ebola-affected countries caused by decreased health-care capacity, and the potential effect of mitigation strategies: a modelling analysis. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 15(7)
Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fowler RA, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Murthy S, Nedjati Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Pelletier L, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD. (2015). Ebola virus disease among children in West Africa. The New England journal of medicine, 372(13)
Van Kerkhove MD, Bento AI, Mills HL, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA. (2015). A review of epidemiological parameters from Ebola outbreaks to inform early public health decision-making. Scientific data, (2)
Ferguson NM, Kien DT, Clapham H, Aguas R, Trung VT, Chau TN, Popovici J, Ryan PA, O'Neill SL, McGraw EA, Long VT, Dui le T, Nguyen HL, Chau NV, Wills B, Simmons CP. (2015). Modeling the impact on virus transmission of Wolbachia-mediated blocking of dengue virus infection of Aedes aegypti. Science translational medicine, 7(279)
Lipsitch M, Donnelly CA, Fraser C, Blake IM, Cori A, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Garske T, Mills HL, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Hernán MA. (2015). Potential Biases in Estimating Absolute and Relative Case-Fatality Risks during Outbreaks. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 9(7)
Dorigatti I, Aguas R, Donnelly CA, Guy B, Coudeville L, Jackson N, Saville M, Ferguson NM. (2015). Modelling the immunological response to a tetravalent dengue vaccine from multiple phase-2 trials in Latin America and South East Asia. Vaccine, 33(31)
Lambrechts L, Ferguson NM, Harris E, Holmes EC, McGraw EA, O'Neill SL, Ooi EE, Ritchie SA, Ryan PA, Scott TW, Simmons CP, Weaver SC. (2015). Assessing the epidemiological effect of wolbachia for dengue control. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 15(7)
Nouvellet P, Garske T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Hinsley W, Blake IM, Van Kerkhove MD, Cori A, Dorigatti I, Jombart T, Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. (2015). The role of rapid diagnostics in managing Ebola epidemics. Nature, 528(7580)
Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L, Ferguson N, Burke DS, Cummings DAT. (2015). Differential efficacy of dengue vaccine by immune status. Lancet, 385(9979)
Jombart T, Aanensen DM, Baguelin M, Birrell P, Cauchemez S, Camacho A, Colijn C, Collins C, Cori A, Didelot X, Fraser C, Frost S, Hens N, Hugues J, Höhle M, Opatowski L, Rambaut A, Ratmann O, Soubeyrand S, Suchard MA, Wallinga J, Ypma R, Ferguson N. (2014). OutbreakTools: a new platform for disease outbreak analysis using the R software. Epidemics, (7)
Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM, Fox A, Mai le Q, Thanh le T, Thai PQ, Thoang DD, Duong TN, Minh Hoa le N, Tran Hien N, Horby P. (2014). Determinants of influenza transmission in South East Asia: insights from a household cohort study in Vietnam. PLoS pathogens, 10(8)
Garske T, Van Kerkhove MD, Yactayo S, Ronveaux O, Lewis RF, Staples JE, Perea W, Ferguson NM, . (2014). Yellow Fever in Africa: estimating the burden of disease and impact of mass vaccination from outbreak and serological data. PLoS medicine, 11(5)
Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Blake IM, Brennan R, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Formenty P, Fraser C, Garcia E, Garske T, Hinsley W, Holmes D, Hugonnet S, Iyengar S, Jombart T, Krishnan R, Meijers S, Mills HL, Mohamed Y, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Pelletier L, Perkins D, Riley S, Sagrado M, Schnitzler J, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Varsaneux O, Wijekoon Kannangarage N. (2015). West African Ebola epidemic after one year--slowing but not yet under control. The New England journal of medicine, 372(6)
Pelat C, Ferguson NM, White PJ, Reed C, Finelli L, Cauchemez S, Fraser C. (2014). Optimizing the precision of case fatality ratio estimates under the surveillance pyramid approach. American journal of epidemiology, 180(10)
Lessler J, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Cummings DA, Garske T, Van Kerkhove M, Mills H, Truelove S, Hakeem R, Albarrak A, Ferguson NM, , . (2014). Estimating Potential Incidence of MERS-CoV Associated with Hajj Pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014. PLoS currents, (6)
Aylward B, Barboza P, Bawo L, Bertherat E, Bilivogui P, Blake I, Brennan R, Briand S, Chakauya JM, Chitala K, Conteh RM, Cori A, Croisier A, Dangou JM, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Formenty P, Fuhrer C, Fukuda K, Garske T, Gasasira A, Gbanyan S, Graaff P, Heleze E, Jambai A, Jombart T, Kasolo F, Kadiobo AM, Keita S, Kertesz D, Koné M, Lane C, Markoff J, Massaquoi M, Mills H, Mulba JM, Musa E, Myhre J, Nasidi A, Nilles E, Nouvellet P, Nshimirimana D, Nuttall I, Nyenswah T, Olu O, Pendergast S, Perea W, Polonsky J, Riley S, Ronveaux O, Sakoba K, Santhana Gopala Krishnan R, Senga M, Shuaib F, Van Kerkhove MD, Vaz R, Wijekoon Kannangarage N, Yoti Z. (2014). Ebola virus disease in West Africa--the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections. The New England journal of medicine, 371(16)
Clapham HE, Tricou V, Van Vinh Chau N, Simmons CP, Ferguson NM. (2014). Within-host viral dynamics of dengue serotype 1 infection. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 11(96)
Ferguson NM, Cummings DA. (2014). How season and serotype determine dengue transmissibility. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(26)
Jombart T, Cori A, Didelot X, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Ferguson N. (2013). Bayesian reconstruction of disease outbreaks by combining epidemiologic and genomic data. PLoS computational biology, 10(1)
Gambhir M, Swerdlow DL, Finelli L, Van Kerkhove MD, Biggerstaff M, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2013). Multiple contributory factors to the age distribution of disease cases: a modeling study in the context of influenza A(H3N2v). Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, (57 Suppl 1)
Ali ST, Kadi AS, Ferguson NM. (2013). Transmission dynamics of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in India: the impact of holiday-related school closure. Epidemics, 5(4)
Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2013). Increased transmissibility explains the third wave of infection by the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus in England. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(33)
Ferguson NM, Van Kerkhove MD. (2014). Identification of MERS-CoV in dromedary camels. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 14(2)
Garske T, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC. (2013). Estimating air temperature and its influence on malaria transmission across Africa. PloS one, 8(2)
Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Rambaut A, Enouf V, van der Werf S, Ferguson NM. (2013). Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 14(1)
Cori A, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Cauchemez S. (2013). A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics. American journal of epidemiology, 178(9)
Aguas R, Ferguson NM. (2013). Feature selection methods for identifying genetic determinants of host species in RNA viruses. PLoS computational biology, 9(10)
Cauchemez S, Epperson S, Biggerstaff M, Swerdlow D, Finelli L, Ferguson NM. (2013). Using routine surveillance data to estimate the epidemic potential of emerging zoonoses: application to the emergence of US swine origin influenza A H3N2v virus. PLoS medicine, 10(3)
Chis Ster I, Dodd PJ, Ferguson NM. (2012). Within-farm transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease as revealed by the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain. Epidemics, 4(3)
Van Kerkhove MD, Ferguson NM. (2012). Epidemic and intervention modelling--a scientific rationale for policy decisions? Lessons from the 2009 influenza pandemic. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 90(4)
Van Kerkhove MD, Riley S, Lipsitch M, Guan Y, Monto AS, Webster RG, Zambon M, Nicoll A, Peiris JS, Ferguson NM. (2012). Comment on "Seroevidence for H5N1 influenza infections in humans: meta-analysis". Science (New York, N.Y.), 336(6088)
de Silva E, Ferguson NM, Fraser C. (2012). Inferring pandemic growth rates from sequence data. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 9(73)
Truscott J, Ferguson NM. (2012). Evaluating the adequacy of gravity models as a description of human mobility for epidemic modelling. PLoS computational biology, 8(10)
Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Pugliese A, Ferguson NM. (2012). A new approach to characterising infectious disease transmission dynamics from sentinel surveillance: application to the Italian 2009-2010 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic. Epidemics, 4(1)
Ferguson N, Kamble SV. (2012). The role of revenge, denial, and terrorism distress in restoring just world beliefs: the impact of the 2008 Mumbai attacks on British and Indian students. The Journal of social psychology, 152(6)
Cauchemez S, Horby P, Fox A, Mai le Q, Thanh le T, Thai PQ, Hoa le NM, Hien NT, Ferguson NM. (2012). Influenza infection rates, measurement errors and the interpretation of paired serology. PLoS pathogens, 8(12)
Opatowski L, Fraser C, Griffin J, de Silva E, Van Kerkhove MD, Lyons EJ, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2011). Transmission characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: comparison of 8 Southern hemisphere countries. PLoS pathogens, 7(9)
Merler S, Ajelli M, Pugliese A, Ferguson NM. (2011). Determinants of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Europe: implications for real-time modelling. PLoS computational biology, 7(9)
Truscott J, Fraser C, Cauchemez S, Meeyai A, Hinsley W, Donnelly CA, Ghani A, Ferguson N. (2012). Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 9(67)
Fraser C, Cummings DA, Klinkenberg D, Burke DS, Ferguson NM. (2011). Influenza transmission in households during the 1918 pandemic. American journal of epidemiology, 174(5)
Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2012). Methods to infer transmission risk factors in complex outbreak data. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 9(68)
MacIntyre CR, Wang Q, Cauchemez S, Seale H, Dwyer DE, Yang P, Shi W, Gao Z, Pang X, Zhang Y, Wang X, Duan W, Rahman B, Ferguson N. (2011). A cluster randomized clinical trial comparing fit-tested and non-fit-tested N95 respirators to medical masks to prevent respiratory virus infection in health care workers. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 5(3)
Garske T, Yu H, Peng Z, Ye M, Zhou H, Cheng X, Wu J, Ferguson N. (2011). Travel patterns in China. PLoS One, 6(2)
Cauchemez S, Bhattarai A, Marchbanks TL, Fagan RP, Ostroff S, Ferguson NM, Swerdlow D, . (2011). Role of social networks in shaping disease transmission during a community outbreak of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108(7)
Van Kerkhove MD, Asikainen T, Becker NG, Bjorge S, Desenclos JC, dos Santos T, Fraser C, Leung GM, Lipsitch M, Longini IM Jr., McBryde ES, Roth CE, Shay DK, Smith DJ, Wallinga J, White PJ, Ferguson NM, Riley S, . (2010). Studies needed to address public health challenges of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: insights from modeling. PLoS medicine, 7(6)
Donnelly CA, Finelli L, Cauchemez S, Olsen SJ, Doshi S, Jackson ML, Kennedy ED, Kamimoto L, Marchbanks TL, Morgan OW, Patel M, Swerdlow DL, Ferguson NM, . (2010). Serial intervals and the temporal distribution of secondary infections within households of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1): implications for influenza control recommendations. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, (52 Suppl 1)
Eggo RM, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2011). Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 8(55)
Pellis L, Ferguson NM, Fraser C. (2011). Epidemic growth rate and household reproduction number in communities of households, schools and workplaces. Journal of mathematical biology, 63(4)
MacIntyre CR, Cauchemez S, Dwyer DE, Seale H, Cheung P, Browne G, Fasher M, Wood J, Gao Z, Booy R, Ferguson N. (2009). Face mask use and control of respiratory virus transmission in households. Emerging infectious diseases, 15(2)
Dodd PJ, Ferguson NM. (2009). A many-body field theory approach to stochastic models in population biology. PLoS One, 4(9)
Ferguson NM. (2009). Mathematical prediction in infection. Medicine (Abingdon, England : UK ed.), 37(10)
Cauchemez S, Donnelly CA, Reed C, Ghani AC, Fraser C, Kent CK, Finelli L, Ferguson NM. (2009). Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United States. The New England journal of medicine, 361(27)
Lange A, Ferguson NM. (2009). Antigenic diversity, transmission mechanisms, and the evolution of pathogens. PLoS computational biology, 5(10)
Truscott J, Fraser C, Hinsley W, Cauchemez S, Donnelly C, Ghani A, Ferguson N, Meeyai A. (2009). Quantifying the transmissibility of human influenza and its seasonal variation in temperate regions. PLoS currents, (1)
Lipsitch M, Riley S, Cauchemez S, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. (2009). Managing and reducing uncertainty in an emerging influenza pandemic. The New England journal of medicine, 361(2)
Chis Ster I, Singh BK, Ferguson NM. (2009). Epidemiological inference for partially observed epidemics: the example of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. Epidemics, 1(1)
Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM, Wachtel C, Tegnell A, Saour G, Duncan B, Nicoll A. (2009). Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 9(8)
Minayev P, Ferguson N. (2009). Incorporating demographic stochasticity into multi-strain epidemic models: application to influenza A. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 6(40)
Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S, Hanage WP, Van Kerkhove MD, Hollingsworth TD, Griffin J, Baggaley RF, Jenkins HE, Lyons EJ, Jombart T, Hinsley WR, Grassly NC, Balloux F, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Rambaut A, Pybus OG, Lopez-Gatell H, Alpuche-Aranda CM, Chapela IB, Zavala EP, Guevara DM, Checchi F, Garcia E, Hugonnet S, Roth C, . (2009). Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings. Science (New York, N.Y.), 324(5934)
Legrand J, Egan JR, Hall IM, Cauchemez S, Leach S, Ferguson NM. (2008). Estimating the location and spatial extent of a covert anthrax release. PLoS computational biology, 5(1)
Minayev P, Ferguson N. (2009). Improving the realism of deterministic multi-strain models: implications for modelling influenza A. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 6(35)
Pellis L, Ferguson NM, Fraser C. (2008). The relationship between real-time and discrete-generation models of epidemic spread. Mathematical biosciences, 216(1)
Halloran ME, Ferguson NM, Eubank S, Longini IM Jr., Cummings DA, Lewis B, Xu S, Fraser C, Vullikanti A, Germann TC, Wagener D, Beckman R, Kadau K, Barrett C, Macken CA, Burke DS, Cooley P. (2008). Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105(12)
Cauchemez S, Valleron AJ, Boëlle PY, Flahault A, Ferguson NM. (2008). Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data. Nature, 452(7188)
Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2008). Likelihood-based estimation of continuous-time epidemic models from time-series data: application to measles transmission in London. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 5(25)
Ferguson N. (2007). Capturing human behaviour. Nature, 446(7137)
Bootsma MC, Ferguson NM. (2007). The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in U.S. cities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(18)
Chis Ster I, Ferguson NM. (2007). Transmission parameters of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. PLoS One, 2(6)
Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Fraser C, Cajka JC, Cooley PC, Burke DS. (2006). Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature, 442(7101)
Ferguson N. (2006). Poverty, death, and a future influenza pandemic. Lancet, 368(9554)
Parham PE, Ferguson NM. (2006). Space and contact networks: capturing the locality of disease transmission. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 3(9)
Riley S, Ferguson NM. (2006). Smallpox transmission and control: spatial dynamics in Great Britain. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103(33)
Baggaley RF, Garnett GP, Ferguson NM. (2006). Modelling the impact of antiretroviral use in resource-poor settings. PLoS medicine, 3(4)
Cauchemez S, Boëlle PY, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Thomas G, Leung GM, Hedley AJ, Anderson RM, Valleron AJ. (2005). Real-time estimates in early detection of SARS. Emerging infectious diseases, 12(1)
Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, Burke DS. (2005). Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature, 437(7056)
Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Anderson RM. (2004). Public health. Public health risk from the avian H5N1 influenza epidemic. Science (New York, N.Y.), 304(5673)
Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM. (2004). Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101(16)
Abu-Raddad LJ, Ferguson NM. (2004). The impact of cross-immunity, mutation and stochastic extinction on pathogen diversity. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 271(1556)
Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Abu-Raddad LJ, Hedley AJ, Leung GM, Ho LM, Lam TH, Thach TQ, Chau P, Chan KP, Lo SV, Leung PY, Tsang T, Ho W, Lee KH, Lau EM, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM. (2003). Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions. Science (New York, N.Y.), 300(5627)
Ferguson NM, Galvani AP, Bush RM. (2003). Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution. Nature, 422(6930)
Ferguson NM, Mallett S, Jackson H, Roberts N, Ward P. (2003). A population-dynamic model for evaluating the potential spread of drug-resistant influenza virus infections during community-based use of antivirals. The Journal of antimicrobial chemotherapy, 51(4)
Ferguson NM, Keeling MJ, Edmunds WJ, Gani R, Grenfell BT, Anderson RM, Leach S. (2003). Planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature, 425(6959)
Riley S, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. (2003). Robust parameter estimation techniques for stochastic within-host macroparasite models. Journal of theoretical biology, 225(4)
Galvani AP, Coleman RM, Ferguson NM. (2003). The maintenance of sex in parasites. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 270(1510)
Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA. (2003). Assessment of the risk posed by bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle in Great Britain and the impact of potential changes to current control measures. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 270(1524)
Ferguson NM, Anderson RM. (2002). Predicting evolutionary change in the influenza A virus. Nature medicine, 8(6)
Fraser C, Ferguson NM, De Wolf F, Ghani AC, Garnett GP, Anderson RM. (2002). Antigen-driven T-cell turnover. Journal of theoretical biology, 219(2)
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