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Using predicted imports of 2019-nCoV cases to determine locations that may not be identifying all imported cases

Abstract

Cases from the ongoing outbreak of atypical pneumonia caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) exported from mainland China can lead to subsequent self-sustained outbreaks in other populations. Internationally imported cases are currently being reported in several different locations.. Early detection of imported cases is critical for containment. Based on air travel volume estimates between Wuhan and locations in other countries and using generalized linear regression model we identify locations which may potentially have underdetected internationally imported cases.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementThis work was supported by Award Number U54GM088558 from the US National Institute Of General Medical Sciences. P.M.D was supported by the Fellowship Foundation Ramon Areces. A.R.T. and C.O.B. were supported by a NIGMS Maximizing Investigator’s Research Award (MIRA) R35GM124715-02.The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institute Of General Medical Sciences or the National Institutes of Health. Author DeclarationsAll relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.YesAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesCode and data are available at hhttps://github.com/c2-d2/cov19flightimport https://github.com/c2-d2/cov19flightimport

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