I have been working at the Bruno Kessler Foundation in Trento, Italy, since my PhD in Information and Communication Technology (University of Trento, 2011). Previously, I had received a MSc in Biomedical Engineering (University of Pisa, 2006). During my PhD, I have spent 6 months at the Denise Kirschner’s lab at the University of Michigan Medical School. My main research interest is infectious disease modeling with a focus on public health applications, i.e. risk assessment, outbreak investigation, and the evaluation of the effectiveness of interventions. I am also interested in the epidemiological impact of immunological dynamics. Diseases I have studied include tuberculosis, varicella and herpes zoster, meningococcal meningitis, human papillomavirus, hepatitis A, mosquito-borne infections, antimicrobial resistant pathogens and SARS-CoV-2. I am currently Editorial Board Member at BMC Public Health.
He/him/his
Italy
Fumanelli L, Guzzetta G, Del Manso M, Bella A, Vicentini M, Djuric O, Bisaccia E, Mancuso P, Cilloni S, Larosa E, Pezzotti P, Giorgi Rossi P, Merler S. (2026). The impact of school-based mitigation measures on the transmission of respiratory pathogens: the case of SARS-CoV-2. International journal of epidemiology, 55(4)
Lucchini L, Marziano V, Trentini F, Chiavenna C, D'Agnese E, Offeddu V, Manica M, Poletti P, Balsamo D, Guzzetta G, Ajelli M, Melegaro A, Merler S. (2026). Implications for distancing measures on in-person school and work attendance from Italian post-pandemic social contact data. Communications medicine, 6(1)
Fotakis EA, Del Manso M, Poletti P, Guzzetta G, Bella A, Sacco C, Ballarin D, Zappetti C, Zuccali MG, Spertini S, Riccardo F, Pezzotti P, Merler S, . (2026). Assessing the annual burden of tick-borne encephalitis virus infections, north-east Italy, 2017 to 2024. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 31(17)
De Bellis A, Willemsen MS, Guzzetta G, van Sighem A, Romijnders KAGJ, Reiss P, Schim van der Loeff MF, van de Wijgert JHHM, Nijhuis M, Kretzschmar MEE, Rozhnova G. (2025). Model-based evaluation of the impact of a potential HIV cure on HIV transmission dynamics. Nature communications, 16(1)
Kaye AR, Guzzetta G, Tildesley MJ, Thompson RN. (2025). Quantifying infectious disease epidemic risks: A practical approach for seasonal pathogens. PLoS computational biology, 21(2)
Fiandrino S, Bizzotto A, Guzzetta G, Merler S, Baldo F, Valdano E, Urdiales AM, Bella A, Celino F, Zino L, Rizzo A, Li Y, Perra N, Gioannini C, Milano P, Paolotti D, Quaggiotto M, Rossi L, Vismara I, Vespignani A, Gozzi N. (2025). Collaborative forecasting of influenza-like illness in Italy: The Influcast experience. Epidemics, (50)
Nadim SS, Menegale F, Manica M, Kaye AR, Balatsos G, Bisia M, Pichler V, Poletti P, Merler S, Della Torre A, Thompson RN, Michaelakis A, Guzzetta G. (2025). Assessing risks of dengue, chikungunya and Zika transmission associated to Aedes albopictus in Chania, Greece, 2017-2018. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 19(12)
Bizzotto A, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Del Manso M, Mateo Urdiales A, Petrone D, Cannone A, Sacco C, Poletti P, Manica M, Zardini A, Trentini F, Fabiani M, Bella A, Riccardo F, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2024). Increasing situational awareness through nowcasting of the reproduction number. Frontiers in public health, (12)
Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Mammone A, Siddu A, Ferraro F, Caraglia A, Maraglino F, Rezza G, Vespignani A, Longini I, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2024). The decline of the 2022 Italian mpox epidemic: Role of behavior changes and control strategies. Nature communications, 15(1)
Menegale F, Manica M, Zardini A, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Merler S. (2023). Evaluation of Waning of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine-Induced Immunity: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. JAMA network open, 6(5)
Guzzetta G, Ajelli M, Miglietta A, Fazio C, Neri A, Merler S, Rezza G, Stefanelli P. (2023). Evaluating the effect of targeted strategies as control tools for hypervirulent meningococcal C outbreaks: a case study from Tuscany, Italy, 2015 to 2016. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 28(19)
Galli M, Zardini A, Gamshie WN, Santini S, Tsegaye A, Trentini F, Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Manica M, d'Andrea V, Putoto G, Manenti F, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Merler S. (2023). Priority age targets for COVID-19 vaccination in Ethiopia under limited vaccine supply. Scientific reports, 13(1)
Molina Grané C, Mancuso P, Vicentini M, Venturelli F, Djuric O, Manica M, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Zardini A, d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Bisaccia E, Larosa E, Cilloni S, Cassinadri MT, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Rossi PG, Merler S, Poletti P. (2023). SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns in educational settings during the Alpha wave in Reggio-Emilia, Italy. Epidemics, (44)
Manica M, Marini G, Solimini A, Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Scognamiglio P, Virgillito C, Della Torre A, Merler S, Rosà R, Vairo F, Caputo B. (2023). Reporting delays of chikungunya cases during the 2017 outbreak in Lazio region, Italy. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 17(9)
Stefanelli P, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Mammone A, Sane Schepisi M, Poletti P, Molina Grané C, Manica M, Del Manso M, Andrianou X, Ajelli M, Rezza G, Brusaferro S, Merler S, . (2022). Co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Gamma variants in Italy, February and March 2021. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 27(5)
Manica M, Poletti P, Deandrea S, Mosconi G, Ancarani C, Lodola S, Guzzetta G, d'Andrea V, Marziano V, Zardini A, Trentini F, Odone A, Tirani M, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2022). Estimating SARS-CoV-2 transmission in educational settings: A retrospective cohort study. Influenza and other respiratory viruses
Trentini F, Manna A, Balbo N, Marziano V, Guzzetta G, O'Dell S, Kummer AG, Litvinova M, Merler S, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Melegaro A. (2022). Investigating the relationship between interventions, contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. Epidemics, (40)
Liu QH, Zhang J, Peng C, Litvinova M, Huang S, Poletti P, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Zhou T, Viboud C, Bento AI, Lv J, Vespignani A, Merler S, Yu H, Ajelli M. (2022). Model-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19. Nature communications, 13(1)
Poletti P, Tirani M, Cereda D, Guzzetta G, Trentini F, Marziano V, Toso C, Piatti A, Piccarreta R, Melegaro A, Andreassi A, Gramegna M, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2021). Seroprevalence of and Risk Factors Associated With SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Health Care Workers During the Early COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy. JAMA network open, 4(7)
Manica M, Guzzetta G, Riccardo F, Valenti A, Poletti P, Marziano V, Trentini F, Andrianou X, Mateo-Urdiales A, Del Manso M, Fabiani M, Vescio MF, Spuri M, Petrone D, Bella A, Iavicoli S, Ajelli M, Brusaferro S, Pezzotti P, Merler S. (2021). Impact of tiered restrictions on human activities and the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy. Nature communications, 12(1)
Yang J, Marziano V, Deng X, Guzzetta G, Zhang J, Trentini F, Cai J, Poletti P, Zheng W, Wang W, Wu Q, Zhao Z, Dong K, Zhong G, Viboud C, Merler S, Ajelli M, Yu H. (2021). Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021. Nature human behaviour
Cereda D, Manica M, Tirani M, Rovida F, Demicheli V, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Marziano V, Piccarreta R, Barone A, Magoni M, Deandrea S, Diurno G, Lombardo M, Faccini M, Pan A, Bruno R, Pariani E, Grasselli G, Piatti A, Gramegna M, Baldanti F, Melegaro A, Merler S. (2021). The early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy. Epidemics, (37)
Manica M, Pancheri S, Poletti P, Giovanazzi G, Guzzetta G, Trentini F, Marziano V, Ajelli M, Grazia Zuccali M, Benetollo PP, Merler S, Ferro A. (2021). The risk of symptomatic infection during a second COVID-19 wave, in SARS-CoV-2 seropositive individuals. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
Trentini F, Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Tirani M, Cereda D, Poletti P, Piccarreta R, Barone A, Preziosi G, Arduini F, Valle PGD, Zanella A, Grosso F, Castillo G, Castrofino A, Grasselli G, Melegaro A, Piatti A, Andreassi A, Gramegna M, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2021). The pressure on healthcare system and intensive care utilization during the COVID-19 outbreak in the Lombardy region: a retrospective observational study on 43,538 hospitalized patients. American journal of epidemiology
Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Mammone A, Riccardo F, Poletti P, Trentini F, Manica M, Siddu A, Bella A, Stefanelli P, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Merler S. (2021). The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus. Nature communications, 12(1)
Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Rondinone BM, Boccuni F, Riccardo F, Bella A, Poletti P, Trentini F, Pezzotti P, Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Iavicoli S, Ajelli M, Merler S. (2021). Retrospective analysis of the Italian exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(4)
Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Galli M, Zardini A, Manenti F, Putoto G, Marziano V, Gamshie WN, Tsegaye A, Greblo A, Melegaro A, Ajelli M, Merler S, Poletti P. (2021). Modeling the interplay between demography, social contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the South West Shewa Zone of Oromia Region, Ethiopia. BMC medicine, 19(1)
Guzzetta G, Tagliapietra V, Perkins SE, Hauffe HC, Poletti P, Merler S, Rizzoli A. (2017). Population dynamics of wild rodents induce stochastic fadeouts of a zoonotic pathogen. The Journal of animal ecology, 86(3)
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