Michael Johansson




Dengue Branch, Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University
Outbreak Science



Biggerstaff M, Dahlgren FS, Fitzner J, George D, Hammond A, Hall I, Haw D, Imai N, Johansson MA, Kramer S, McCaw JM, Moss R, Pebody R, Read JM, Reed C, Reich NG, Riley S, Vandemaele K, Viboud C, Wu JT. (2020). Coordinating the real-time use of global influenza activity data for better public health planning. Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 14(2)

Buckee CO, Johansson MA. (2020). Individual model forecasts can be misleading, but together they are useful. European journal of epidemiology

Biggerstaff M, Cowling BJ, Cucunubá ZM, Dinh L, Ferguson NM, Gao H, Hill V, Imai N, Johansson MA, Kada S, Morgan O, Pastore Y Piontti A, Polonsky JA, Prasad PV, Quandelacy TM, Rambaut A, Tappero JW, Vandemaele KA, Vespignani A, Warmbrod KL, Wong JY,. (2020). Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19. Emerging infectious diseases, 26(11)

McGough SF, Johansson MA, Lipsitch M, Menzies NA. (2020). Nowcasting by Bayesian Smoothing: A flexible, generalizable model for real-time epidemic tracking. PLoS computational biology, 16(4)

Paz-Bailey G, Quandelacy TM, Adams LE, Olsen SJ, Blanton L, Munoz-Jordan JL, Lozier M, Alvarado LI, Johansson MA. (2020). Recent influenza activity in tropical Puerto Rico has become synchronized with mainland US. Influenza and other respiratory viruses

Buckee CO, Johansson MA. (2020). Individual model forecasts can be misleading, but together they are useful. European journal of epidemiology, 35(8)

Reich NG, Osthus D, Ray EL, Yamana TK, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Rosenfeld R, Shaman J. (2019). Reply to Bracher: Scoring probabilistic forecasts to maximize public health interpretability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(42)

McGowan CJ, Biggerstaff M, Johansson M, Apfeldorf KM, Ben-Nun M, Brooks L, Convertino M, Erraguntla M, Farrow DC, Freeze J, Ghosh S, Hyun S, Kandula S, Lega J, Liu Y, Michaud N, Morita H, Niemi J, Ramakrishnan N, Ray EL, Reich NG, Riley P, Shaman J, Tibshirani R, Vespignani A, Zhang Q, Reed C, . (2019). Collaborative efforts to forecast seasonal influenza in the United States, 2015-2016. Scientific reports, 9(1)

Reich NG, Brooks LC, Fox SJ, Kandula S, McGowan CJ, Moore E, Osthus D, Ray EL, Tushar A, Yamana TK, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Rosenfeld R, Shaman J. (2019). A collaborative multiyear, multimodel assessment of seasonal influenza forecasting in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(8)

Rivers C, Chretien JP, Riley S, Pavlin JA, Woodward A, Brett-Major D, Maljkovic Berry I, Morton L, Jarman RG, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Reich NG, Meyer D, Snyder MR, Pollett S. (2019). Using "outbreak science" to strengthen the use of models during epidemics. Nature communications, 10(1)

Perkins TA, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Manore C, Siraj AS, España G, Barker CM, Johansson MA, Reiner RC Jr.. (2019). Heterogeneous local dynamics revealed by classification analysis of spatially disaggregated time series data. Epidemics, (29)

Lutz CS, Huynh MP, Schroeder M, Anyatonwu S, Dahlgren FS, Danyluk G, Fernandez D, Greene SK, Kipshidze N, Liu L, Mgbere O, McHugh LA, Myers JF, Siniscalchi A, Sullivan AD, West N, Johansson MA, Biggerstaff M. (2019). Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples. BMC public health, 19(1)

George DB, Taylor W, Shaman J, Rivers C, Paul B, O'Toole T, Johansson MA, Hirschman L, Biggerstaff M, Asher J, Reich NG. (2019). Technology to advance infectious disease forecasting for outbreak management. Nature communications, 10(1)

Fox SJ, Bellan SE, Perkins TA, Johansson MA, Meyers LA. (2019). Downgrading disease transmission risk estimates using terminal importations. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 13(6)

Madewell ZJ, Hemme RR, Adams L, Barrera R, Waterman SH, Johansson MA. (2019). Comparing vector and human surveillance strategies to detect arbovirus transmission: A simulation study for Zika virus detection in Puerto Rico. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 13(12)

Reich NG, McGowan CJ, Yamana TK, Tushar A, Ray EL, Osthus D, Kandula S, Brooks LC, Crawford-Crudell W, Gibson GC, Moore E, Silva R, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Rosenfeld R, Shaman J. (2019). Accuracy of real-time multi-model ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the U.S. PLoS computational biology, 15(11)

Kobres PY, Chretien JP, Johansson MA, Morgan JJ, Whung PY, Mukundan H, Del Valle SY, Forshey BM, Quandelacy TM, Biggerstaff M, Viboud C, Pollett S. (2019). A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 13(10)

Mitchell PK, Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L, Biggerstaff BJ, Delorey MJ, Aubry M, Cao-Lormeau VM, Lozier MJ, Cauchemez S, Johansson MA. (2019). Reassessing Serosurvey-Based Estimates of the Symptomatic Proportion of Zika Virus Infections. American journal of epidemiology, 188(1)

Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L, Delorey MJ, Sejvar JJ, Johansson MA. (2018). Guillain-Barré syndrome risk among individuals infected with Zika virus: a multi-country assessment. BMC medicine, 16(1)

Biggerstaff M, Johansson M, Alper D, Brooks LC, Chakraborty P, Farrow DC, Hyun S, Kandula S, McGowan C, Ramakrishnan N, Rosenfeld R, Shaman J, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ, Vespignani A, Yang W, Zhang Q, Reed C. (2018). Results from the second year of a collaborative effort to forecast influenza seasons in the United States. Epidemics, (24)

Lai S, Johansson MA, Yin W, Wardrop NA, van Panhuis WG, Wesolowski A, Kraemer MUG, Bogoch II, Kain D, Findlater A, Choisy M, Huang Z, Mu D, Li Y, He Y, Chen Q, Yang J, Khan K, Tatem AJ, Yu H. (2018). Seasonal and interannual risks of dengue introduction from South-East Asia into China, 2005-2015. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 12(11)

Johansson MA, Reich NG, Meyers LA, Lipsitch M. (2018). Preprints: An underutilized mechanism to accelerate outbreak science. PLoS medicine, 15(4)

Scarpino SV, Meyers LA, Johansson MA. (2017). Design Strategies for Efficient Arbovirus Surveillance. Emerging infectious diseases, 23(4)

Russell S, Ryff K, Gould C, Martin S, Johansson M. (2017). Detecting Local Zika Virus Transmission in the Continental United States: A Comparison of Surveillance Strategies. PLoS currents, (9)

Keegan LT, Lessler J, Johansson MA. (2017). Quantifying Zika: Advancing the Epidemiology of Zika With Quantitative Models. The Journal of infectious diseases, 216(suppl_10)

Ray EL, Sakrejda K, Lauer SA, Johansson MA, Reich NG. (2017). Infectious disease prediction with kernel conditional density estimation. Statistics in medicine, 36(30)

Siraj AS, Oidtman RJ, Huber JH, Kraemer MUG, Brady OJ, Johansson MA, Perkins TA. (2017). Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 11(7)

Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L, Tatem AJ, Johansson MA. (2017). Mosquitoes on a plane: Disinsection will not stop the spread of vector-borne pathogens, a simulation study. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 11(7)

Clapham HE, Cummings DAT, Johansson MA. (2017). Immune status alters the probability of apparent illness due to dengue virus infection: Evidence from a pooled analysis across multiple cohort and cluster studies. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 11(9)

Kraemer MUG, Faria NR, Reiner RC Jr., Golding N, Nikolay B, Stasse S, Johansson MA, Salje H, Faye O, Wint GRW, Niedrig M, Shearer FM, Hill SC, Thompson RN, Bisanzio D, Taveira N, Nax HH, Pradelski BSR, Nsoesie EO, Murphy NR, Bogoch II, Khan K, Brownstein JS, Tatem AJ, de Oliveira T, Smith DL, Sall AA, Pybus OG, Hay SI, Cauchemez S. (2017). Spread of yellow fever virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2015-16: a modelling study. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 17(3)

Johansson MA, Mier-y-Teran-Romero L, Reefhuis J, Gilboa SM, Hills SL. (2016). Zika and the Risk of Microcephaly. The New England journal of medicine, 375(1)

Johansson MA, Reich NG, Hota A, Brownstein JS, Santillana M. (2016). Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico. Scientific reports, (6)

Ellington SR, Devine O, Bertolli J, Martinez Quiñones A, Shapiro-Mendoza CK, Perez-Padilla J, Rivera-Garcia B, Simeone RM, Jamieson DJ, Valencia-Prado M, Gilboa SM, Honein MA, Johansson MA. (2016). Estimating the Number of Pregnant Women Infected With Zika Virus and Expected Infants With Microcephaly Following the Zika Virus Outbreak in Puerto Rico, 2016. JAMA pediatrics, 170(10)

Chretien JP, Rivers CM, Johansson MA. (2016). Make Data Sharing Routine to Prepare for Public Health Emergencies. PLoS medicine, 13(8)

Feldstein LR, Brownstein JS, Brady OJ, Hay SI, Johansson MA. (2015). Dengue on islands: a Bayesian approach to understanding the global ecology of dengue viruses. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 109(5)

Wesolowski A, Qureshi T, Boni MF, Sundsøy PR, Johansson MA, Rasheed SB, Engø-Monsen K, Buckee CO. (2015). Impact of human mobility on the emergence of dengue epidemics in Pakistan. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112(38)

Althouse BM, Scarpino SV, Meyers LA, Ayers JW, Bargsten M, Baumbach J, Brownstein JS, Castro L, Clapham H, Cummings DA, Del Valle S, Eubank S, Fairchild G, Finelli L, Generous N, George D, Harper DR, Hébert-Dufresne L, Johansson MA, Konty K, Lipsitch M, Milinovich G, Miller JD, Nsoesie EO, Olson DR, Paul M, Polgreen PM, Priedhorsky R, Read JM, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Smith DJ, Stefansen C, Swerdlow DL, Thompson D, Vespignani A, Wesolowski A. (2015). Enhancing disease surveillance with novel data streams: challenges and opportunities. EPJ data science, (4)

Johansson MA. (2015). Chikungunya on the move. Trends in parasitology, 31(2)

Wójcik OP, Brownstein JS, Chunara R, Johansson MA. (2014). Public health for the people: participatory infectious disease surveillance in the digital age. Emerging themes in epidemiology, (11)

Johansson MA, Powers AM, Pesik N, Cohen NJ, Staples JE. (2014). Nowcasting the spread of chikungunya virus in the Americas. PLoS One, 9(8)

Johansson MA, Vasconcelos PF, Staples JE. (2014). The whole iceberg: estimating the incidence of yellow fever virus infection from the number of severe cases. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 108(8)

Gluskin RT, Johansson MA, Santillana M, Brownstein JS. (2014). Evaluation of Internet-based dengue query data: Google Dengue Trends. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 8(2)

Chan M, Johansson MA. (2012). The incubation periods of Dengue viruses. PLoS One, 7(11)

Johansson MA, Arana-Vizcarrondo N, Biggerstaff BJ, Gallagher N, Marano N, Staples JE. (2012). Assessing the risk of international spread of yellow fever virus: a mathematical analysis of an urban outbreak in Asuncion, 2008. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 86(2)

Johansson MA, Hombach J, Cummings DA. (2011). Models of the impact of dengue vaccines: a review of current research and potential approaches. Vaccine, 29(35)

Johansson MA, Arana-Vizcarrondo N, Biggerstaff BJ, Staples JE, Gallagher N, Marano N. (2011). On the treatment of airline travelers in mathematical models. PLoS One, 6(7)

Johansson MA, Arana-Vizcarrondo N, Biggerstaff BJ, Staples JE. (2010). Incubation periods of Yellow fever virus. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 83(1)

Johansson MA, Dominici F, Glass GE. (2009). Local and global effects of climate on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 3(2)

Johansson MA, Cummings DA, Glass GE. (2009). Multiyear climate variability and dengue--El Niño southern oscillation, weather, and dengue incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: a longitudinal data analysis. PLoS medicine, 6(11)

Johansson MA, Glass GE. (2008). High-resolution spatiotemporal weather models for climate studies. International journal of health geographics, (7)