
Christophe Fraser
Senior Group Leader in Pathogen Dynamics
University of Oxford
Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A viruses are now endemic in avian populations in Southeast Asia, and human cases continue to accumulate. Although currently incapable of sustained human-to-human transmission, H5N1 represents a serious pandemic threat owing to the risk of a mutation or reassortment generating a virus with increased transmissibility. Identifying public health interventions that might be able to halt a pandemic in its earliest stages is therefore a priority. Here we use a simulation model of influenza transmission in Southeast Asia to evaluate the potential effectiveness of targeted mass prophylactic use of antiviral drugs as a containment strategy. Other interventions aimed at reducing population contact rates are also examined as reinforcements to an antiviral-based containment policy. We show that elimination of a nascent pandemic may be feasible using a combination of geographically targeted prophylaxis and social distancing measures, if the basic reproduction number of the new virus is below 1.8. We predict that a stockpile of 3 million courses of antiviral drugs should be sufficient for elimination. Policy effectiveness depends critically on how quickly clinical cases are diagnosed and the speed with which antiviral drugs can be distributed.
Senior Group Leader in Pathogen Dynamics
University of Oxford
Professor & Preeminent Scholoar
University of Florida
Distinguished University Professor of Health Science and Policy
University of Pittsburgh
Department Head
Imperial College London
Head of Structure
Institut Pasteur
Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics
Imperial College London
MIDAS Coordination Center
University of Pittsburgh
A737 Public Health
130 DeSoto Street
Pittsburgh PA 15261